Davies-KAUST-FoodSecurity-Keynote-2016-10B.doc
Title: Agriculture, Food Security & Sustainable Intensification: Can We Feed the World?
Fred T. Davies, PhD
Regents Professor & Texas AgriLife Research Faculty Fellow, Senior Borlaug Fellow in Horticulture,
Dept. Horticultural Sci., Texas A&M University. 979-422-9434 (cell)
Senior Science Advisor (Jefferson Science Fellow), USAID, Bureau of Food Security (2013-14)
By the middle of the 21st century, the world population will increase 30% to more than 9 billion. Food production will need to increase 70% to meet increased demands. The numbers do not add-up how we are going to realistically meet the increased demand for food. Forecast increases in crop productivity from biotechnology, genetics, agronomics and horticulture will not be sufficient to meet food demand, and resource limitations will constrain the global food system. For the first time in human history, food production will be limited on a global scale by the availability of land, water, and energy. Food issues could become as politically destabilizing after 2050 as energy issues are today. There is a direct link in the world’s reduced public funding of extension and applied research and the plateau of agricultural productivity, i.e. U.S. agricultural productivity has averaged less than 1.2% per year between 1990 and 2007. More efficient technologies and crops will need to be developed to address this challenge - and equally important, better ways of applying these technologies locally for farmers. Simply put: technologies are not reaching enough smallholder farmers. A greater emphasis is needed in high-value, horticultural crops which create jobs and economic opportunities for rural communities, enables more profitable, intensive farming of small tracts of land in urban areas; many of these small holder entrepreneurs are women, i.e. women dominate the tomato industry in Ghana. Better information delivery (extension), reducing high crop losses and improving the value-chain from farm to fork are critical.
q Focus from subsistence to commercial small-holder farmers.
q Need to be bottom-up, value-chain driven (market-driven for economic sustainability).
q Not just producing higher yield, quality “Hort crops” – but down–stream development of
packaged, processed, refined products, easy to consume – “value-added”
q Targeting the consumptive, middle class to create market “pull through”,
i.e. OFSP - orange fleshed sweet potato (Vitamin A) – can be chipped, fried, flours, bread, purees, blended with other products
Career Opportunities for a Young Person
q “Sputnik challenge” of feeding the world -- doing it with LESS land, less inputs of water, fertilizer, chemicals – Sustainable Intensification.
q Nexus of Nutrition, Food, Energy, Water, Health, Sanitation, Smart Policy
q Thinking outside the box – we can grow plants without soil, need to think producing vertically (growing upwards) with less arable land; CEA – controlled environment agriculture
q “Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world.”
― Nelson Mandela
q (and access to information)
Ø Harvesting the Sun: A Profile of the World of Horticulture. 2012. International Society for Horticultural Science - A web version of this publication is available at www.harvestingthesun.org
Ø Thought for Food Global Challenge http://tffchallenge.com
Ø AAAS Science-Tech Policy http://www.aaas.org/program/science-technology-policy-fellowships
Ø Fulbright –Junior & Senior http://eca.state.gov/fulbright/fulbright-programs