Human Population Growth Computer Lab

Human Population Growth Computer Lab

For this exercise you will use an EXCEL spreadsheet available on the server. To access the spreadsheet, go to the APES class website and click on the excel file WorldPopData.

1. Make a graph of world population growth from 0-2000 using the data in the POPULAT.WK1 excel file, following the directions below

a. Highlight the data A3:B23

b. From Menu click INSERT > CHART> XY SCATTER> NEXT

c. This should produce a plot with a series of dots. Click NEXT

d. Click on the Titles tab, and enter appropriate axis labels and a title.

e. Go to the Gridlines tab and select both major and minor gridlines.

f. At Legend, remove the check from the Show Legend box

g. Click Next, and select As a new sheet. Click Finish.

2. What best describes the shape of the growth curve?______

3. Try to fit a trendline to the data by

a. single click on the data points

b. from the Menu choose ChartAdd TrendlineExponential

Describe the results and explain.

4. When did the rate of growth of the human population really move away dramatically from a simple exponential growth curve and become more vertical than horizontal? ______What caused that change?

5. a. What was the population in 1300?______in 1400?______Explain the reason for the change.

6. Place a custom smoothed line on your graph

a. Double clicka data point to select the data series, which should create a Format Data Series box.

b. Click on Patterns. Select CUSTOM, then OK.

7. Print your graph. ***ASK TEACHER FOR INSTRUCTIONS***

On your graph, find and mark the following population milestones.

1 billion year______

2 billion year______

3 billion year______

4 billion year______

6 billion year______

8. What was the doubling time from 1 to 2 billion? ______

from 2 to 4 billion? ______

from 3 to 6 billion? ______

What does this say about the growth rate?

9. Has a doubling of world population occurred in your parents’ lifetime? ______

10. Look at the chart of Population Growth in Selected Countries found at A:27. Fill out the chart in the following way

a. The Natural Increase is the % increase per year. To calculate it, subtract the death rate from the birth rate and divide by 10.

b. To tell EXCEL to do the calculation for you, type ‘=(B28-C28)/10’ then hit RETURN. The answer should be 1.5. (A common mistake is to omit the ‘=’ sign)

c. Now do the entire column by highlighting 1.7 and the next 6 cells below . To fill down, either go to EDIT, then FILL, then DOWN, or hit ^ D (otherwise known as control D). The entire column should fill with the appropriate numbers.

d. Now calculate the doubling time by using the “Rule of 70”

Doubling Time = 70/ Natural Increase

e. To tell EXCEL to do the calculation for you, type =70/D28

f. Fill down the column using the same technique as in step c

11. a. What country has the greatest rate of population growth?______

What is the rate______% per year

b. What country has virtually reached zero population growth?______

c. What is the doubling time for the United States?______years

d. The birth rates and death rates that are given are per 1000 people in one year. The United States is actually growing faster than its natural increase. The United States, with its open immigration policy, accepts 5 immigrants per thousand each year. Add 5 to the birth rate to show the increase due to immigration. What is the doubling time?______years.

e. Check to see if the “Rule of 70” actually works. Look up the population and % increase for 1952 in the World Population and Annual Addition, 1950-2004 chart.

population = ______annual increase = ______

using the “rule of 70” calculate the doubling time: ______

What year should the population be double?______

What is the population that year?______

Explain the reason for any difference.

12. Look at the data on the spreadsheet World Population Growth, 1950-2004 .

a. In what year were you born?______

b. What was the population that year?______

c. What was the growth rate that year?______

Use the rule of 70 to determine the doubling time at the time of your birth

d. doubling time = ______years.

e. What year will that be______?

13. Make a graph of World Population Growth, 1950-2004 by highlighting A44:B 98 and following the same directions for making a graph in question 1. Add an exponential trendline.

You want to project the trendline into the future

a. click on the trendline, and under options tab, go to forecast forward- type in 30

b. Does the trendline agree with your prediction in 12e?______.

Explain.

14. Print your graph.

15. Do you think that the projected trendline accurately describes the future human population?______

Explain.

Draw by hand a trendline from 2000 to the future on your graph, and explain below why it differs from the trendline generated by the computer.

16.

a. Looking at the EXCEL worksheet of World Population growth, what is the annual addition of people during 2004?______million people.

1918 an influenza (often called the Spanish Influenza) killed 21,000,000 people. At the 2004 increase rate, how long would it take the world to recover from such a devastating epidemic?

c. Although humans have never traveled farther than the moon, and we certainly are unlikely to terriform the moon or Mars within the next 20 years, lets say that our wildest dreams have come true, and we can send as many as 500,000 people a year to a newly colonized planet (yeah, sure, that will happen). Using 2000 increase rate, how long would it take for the Earth’s human population to replace those 500,000 colonists?

d. Assuming no increase in population growth rates, how many people would have to be shipped out per year to this mythical colony to keep Earth’s population steady?______

b. In 1918 an influenza (often called the Spanish Influenza) killed 21,000,000 people. At the 2004 increase rate, how long would it take the world to recover from such a devastating epidemic?

d. Assuming no increase in population growth rates, how many people would have to be shipped out per year to this mythical colony to keep Earth’s population steady?______