Methodology for Benefit-Cost Analysis of

Seismic Codes for International Regions

(Electronic Supplementary Material)

Jomari Peterson

707-373-1093

and

Mitchell J. Small

Department of Engineering & Public Policy

Carnegie Mellon University

Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA

Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards

2012

A.1 Results of HAZUS Simulations

Table A1: HAZUS MH Simulated Economic Loss for Puerto Rico in Millions (Year 2000 Dollars)
Code Level / M5 / M5.5 / M6 / M6.5 / M7 / M7.5 / M8 / M8.5
Low / 37 / 170 / 616 / 1660 / 3572 / 8380 / 13392 / 18763
Current / 15 / 88 / 353 / 1007 / 2106 / 5063 / 8109 / 11173
Moderate / 11 / 71 / 291 / 848 / 1789 / 4225 / 6721 / 9210
High / 10 / 63 / 255 / 746 / 1543 / 3445 / 5364 / 7305
Table A2: HAZUS MH Simulated Casualties for Puerto Rico (Year 2000 Dollars)
Code Level / M5 / M5.5 / M6 / M6.5 / M7 / M7.5 / M8 / M8.5
Low / 11 / 94 / 527 / 1826 / 4755 / 14755 / 26327 / 40874
Current / 3 / 32 / 217 / 884 / 2356 / 8243 / 15047 / 23225
Moderate / 2 / 23 / 160 / 672 / 1813 / 6492 / 11969 / 18253
High / 2 / 23 / 157 / 650 / 1713 / 5655 / 9968 / 15123
Table A3: HAZUS MH Simulated Economic Loss for Haiti in Millions (Year 2000 Dollars)
Code Level / M5 / M5.5 / M6 / M6.5 / M7 / M7.5 / M8 / M8.5
Current / 94 / 95 / 373 / 1054 / 2234 / 5154 / 7024 / 8735
Low / 18 / 112 / 437 / 1178 / 2548 / 5663 / 8071 / 10377
Moderate / 6 / 41 / 194 / 610 / 1401 / 3513 / 5062 / 6600
High / 6 / 40 / 187 / 591 / 1352 / 3368 / 4817 / 6249
Table A4: HAZUS-MH Simulated Casualties for Haiti (Year 2000 Dollars)
Code Level / M5 / M5.5 / M6 / M6.5 / M7 / M7.5 / M8 / M8.5
Low / 203 / 1958 / 14579 / 66536 / 208635 / 747347 / 1085868 / 1420618
Current / 254 / 2728 / 18913 / 75883 / 220382 / 754000 / 1188887 / 1651556
Moderate / 32 / 575 / 5331 / 28832 / 104506 / 469367 / 774916 / 1109963
High / 32 / 574 / 5318 / 28753 / 104188 / 467666 / 771319 / 1103654

A.2 Fitted Damage and Casualty Polynomial Result

Table A5: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)
for 3rd, 4th and 5th Order Polynomials
(Lower AIC indicates preferred model)
Haiti / Puerto Rico
3rd Order / -23.3 / -420
4th Order / -2.4 / 1095
5th Order / 53.5 / 3145
Table A6: Fitted Coefficient of 3rd-Order Polynomial for
Haiti HAZUS-MH Loss Function for Direct Damage
Parameter / Low / Current / Moderate / High
ao / 7.618*104 / 8.906*104 / 4.758*104 / 4.725*104
b1 / -161 / -226 / -91.7 / -95.6
b2 / 4.311*103 / 5.427*103 / 2.577*103 / 2.609*103
b3 / -3.272*104 / -3.925*104 / -2.008*104 / -2.008*104
Table A7: Fitted Coefficient of 3rd-Order Polynomial for
Haiti HAZUS-MH Loss Function for Casualties
Parameter / Low / Current / Moderate / High
ao / 6.444*106 / 1.145*107 / 2.513*106 / 2.56*106
b1 / 994 / -2.085*104 / 8.526*103 / 8.26*103
b2 / 1.931*105 / 5.978*105 / -1.917*104 / -1.456*104
b3 / -2.272*106 / -4.75*106 / -6.156*105 / -6.412*105
Table A8: Fitted Coefficient of 3rd-Order Polynomial for
Puerto Rico HAZUS-MH Loss Function for Direct Damage
Parameter / Low / Current / Moderate / High
ao / 3.819*104 / 2.945*104 / 2.754*104 / 2.499*104
b1 / 98.7 / 35 / 15.7 / -2.99
b2 / 191 / 593 / 742 / 872
b3 / -1.101*104 / -9.7*104 / -9.589*103 / -9.264*104
Table A9: Fitted Coefficient of 3rd-Order Polynomial for
Puerto Rico HAZUS-MH Loss Function for Casualties
Parameter / Low / Current / Moderate / High
ao / -9.105*104 / -5.12*104 / -3.49*104 / -1.761*104
b1 / 939 / 543 / 409 / 291
b2 / -1.345*104 / -7.756*103 / -5.739*103 / -3.848*103
b3 / 6.206*104 / 3.549*104 / 2.548*104 / 1.55*104

A.3 Incorporation of Discounting for Future Damage Loss

The formula for Annuity due was used in the calculation for the Present Value of direct damage loss. The monthly payments for expected loss are assumed to occur annually.

Table A10: Expected Damages Discounted at 5% over a 30 Year Period (Yr 2000 Dollars) and Casualties without Cost of Seismic Code
Haiti / Puerto Rico
Direct Damage
(Millions) / Ratio to Current / Casualties / Ratio to Current / Direct
Damage
(Millions) / Ratio to Current / Casualties / Ratio to Current
Low / $785 / 0.44 / 170,120 / 1.01 / $1,592 / 0.66 / 5,204 / 1.79
Current / $1,771 / 1 / 167,760 / 1 / $2,401 / 1 / 2,900 / 1
Moderate / $467 / 0.26 / 99,640 / 0.59 / $801 / 0.33 / 2,290 / 0.79
High / $449 / 0.25 / 99,320 / 0.59 / $654 / 0.27 / 1,971 / 0.68
Table A11: Expected Damages Discounted at 5% over a 30 Year Period (Yr 2000 Dollars) and Casualties without Cost of Seismic Code
Haiti / Puerto Rico
Direct Damage
(Millions) / Ratio to Current / Casualties / Ratio to Current / Direct / Ratio to Current / Casualties / Ratio to Current
Damage
(Millions)
Low / $504 / 0.44 / 170,120 / 1.01 / $1,022 / 0.66 / 5,204 / 1.79
Current / $1,138 / 1 / 167,760 / 1 / $1,542 / 1 / 2,900 / 1
Moderate / $300 / 0.26 / 99,640 / 0.59 / $515 / 0.33 / 2,290 / 0.79
High / $288 / 0.25 / 99,320 / 0.59 / $420 / 0.27 / 1,971 / 0.68
Table A12: Expected Damages Discounted at 5% over a 30 Year Period (Yr 2000 Dollars) and Casualties
with Cost of Seismic Code
Haiti / Puerto Rico
Direct Damage (Millions) / Ratio to Current / Casualties / Ratio to Current / Direct Damage (Millions / Ratio to Current / Casualties / Ratio to Current
Low / $1,310 / 1.85 / 170,120 / 1.01 / $1,360 / 1.42 / 5,204 / 1.79
Current / $709 / 1 / 167,760 / 1 / $960 / 1 / 2,900 / 1
Moderate / $1,517 / 2.14 / 99,640 / 0.59 / $1,390 / 1.45 / 2,290 / 0.79
High / $2,198 / 3.1 / 99,320 / 0.59 / $2,346 / 2.44 / 1,971 / 0.68
Table A13: Expected Damages Discounted at 10% over a 30 Year Period (Yr 2000 Dollars) and Casualties
with Cost of Seismic Code
Haiti / Puerto Rico
Direct Damage (Millions) / Ratio to Current / Casualties / Ratio to Current / Direct Damage (Millions) / Ratio to Current / Casualties / Ratio to Current
Low / $841 / 1.85 / 170,120 / 1.01 / $873 / 1.42 / 5,204 / 1.79
Current / $455 / 1 / 167,760 / 1 / $617 / 1 / 2,900 / 1
Moderate / $974 / 2.14 / 99,640 / 0.59 / $893 / 1.45 / 2,290 / 0.79
High / $1,412 / 3.1 / 99,320 / 0.59 / $1,507 / 2.44 / 1,971 / 0.68