Decision Theory and Management Science
ISQS 5242/5342Instructor: Dr. Burns
Summer 2003Office: BA 714
Ph: 742-1547 email: rs: 10:30-11:30 M-Th
WEB SITE: burns.ba.ttu.edu
TEXT: Lawrence and Pasternack, Applied Management Science: Second Edition, Wiley, 2002. (This is the only text you have to actually buy at the bookstore.
REFERENCES: Burns and Austin, Management Science and the Microcomputer, Macmillan, 1985.
Austin and Burns, Management Science: An Aid for Managerial Decision-Making, Macmillan, 1985 (You do not have to purchase these at bookstore.)
Welcome toa course on the use of quantitative methods (models) for problem-solving and decision-making. Ask yourself the question: "Have I ever used a model to solve a problem or make a decision??" If your answer is YES, then this course is for you. If your answer is NO, then you need to ask yourself, "What is the basis for the decisions I make, the actions I take anyway?"
WEB Site. The web site for course materials related to this course is You will find there a variety of PowerPoint slides organized by chapter, helps documents and models for use in this course at the site. In addition, there are practice exams. All of the PowerPoint slides that we use in class are available there, for example.
Grading: Two exams and a comprehensive final will be administered. All exams will be mandatory. Make-up exams will be administered in my office only to students with excusable conflicts. Exams will take place in this classroom during the regular meeting time, the final excepted.
In addition to the exams, three problem sets may be taken up. All exams and problem sets will be graded on a basis of 0 to 100%. The letter grade break-down used in assigning all grades, including the final grade is: A : 90 -- 100%, B: 80 -- 89%, C: 70 -- 79%, D: 60 -- 69%, F: below 60. Each exam, including the final, will be worth 30% if you are a 5242 student and 23% if you are a 5342 student. The problem sets and small projects will carry a total worth of 10%, regardless of the type of student you are. A term project (discussed below) that is worth 21% will be required of all 5342 students only.
Attendance: Class attendance will be noted. The seat you sit in on the second class period will be "your seat" for the remainder of the semester. Late entrances and early exits to and from the classroom are distractions which disrupt the class. If you arrive late or if you must leave early, please make your departure as quiet and orderly as possible.
Problems: The problem assignments serve to prepare you for the exams. Working with others on the problems is permissible, but you must understand the problem solutions. You will find that "keeping current" on the problems will greatly facilitate their solution. You should work the problems immediately after the material has been covered in class.
Reading: The reading assignments will enable you to work the problems with understanding and to comprehend the material covered in class. The student is well advised to have read each assigned reading for the class period "before coming to class.
Exams: The exams will test your ability to apply the solution techniques discussed in class. In addition, the exams will test your general substantive understanding of the material including definitions and concepts. Each exam will consist of 50% multiple choice and 50% problems. Multiple choice questions may be used to lead you through a solution procedure.
Academic conduct: The Texas Tech policy for academic conduct (Student Affairs Handbook, pg. 33-42) applies to all students, at all times. Any student who violates the academic conduct policy will be subjected to the appropriate disciplinary sanctions (Student Affairs Handbook, pg. 37.) Any student who classroom conduct is offensive or abusive may receive a reduced course grade. Your integrity is worth far more than your grade in this class.
Disabled Students: If, for any reason, you have a physical, visual, hearing or cognitive impairment that hinders your ability to write, see, hear or take exams, please advise the instructor of your condition, and provide a letter of verification from your doctor. As the instructor, I will make every effort to accommodate your situation as best as I can. You are also advised that you have certain rights as stated in Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973 and described in the Student Affairs Handbook.
Term Project: Only the three—hour students are required to do a term project. The term project will involve application of the techniques discussed in class to a problem area of interest to you. At least two different techniques should be employed together with discussion of results. The term project is due on or before Tuesday, August 7, 2001. It must be written in the following format (maximum of 10 pages typewritten plus appendices).
1. Title Page
2. Executive Summary--A one-page brief of the project or case.
3. Scenario-- A description of the decision making environment, to include political, social, legal, and other non-quantifiable factors that have a bearing on the managerial situation.
4. Problem-- A discussion of the specific problem addressed in the project or case.
5. Model(s)-- A description of the management science and/or decision theory model (or models) used to represent the problem, and the data obtained for use in model(s).
6. Solution to the model--the results obtained from the optimization or other management science models to include sensitivity or "post-optimality" analysis.
7. Recommended solutions to the problem--a discussion of managerial alternatives for solving the problem, taking into account exogenous considerations not explicitly accounted for in the mathematical model.
8. Bibliography--an alphabetical listing of references used in the paper.
9. Appendices --supporting material such as computer print-outs, data used in the model(s), calculations, etc.
"GRADING AND EVALUATION•: The project or case will be evaluated along the following dimensions.
1. Originality -- is the basic application especially interesting or unusual, or is it a re-hash of a well-known textbook illustration?
2. Analytical approach -- was the appropriate model (or models) chosen, and was the analysis complete and accurate?
3. Documentation -- were the data sources and other problem characteristics well-documented, and were appropriate literature sources referenced?
4. Quality of the report -- is the report professionally done, in the correct format, and well-written? In addition, creativity, clarity, completeness, complexity will figure significantly into the overall grade.
COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS: If done well, a project/case of this type is a tremendous learning experience. In the "real world" of business, industry, and public sector decision making, such undertakings are everyday occurrences at all managerial levels, and promotion to higher levels of managerial responsibility depends to a large extent on one's ability to identify, model, and solve problems, and to communicate the results in a well-written report.
The following "tips" may be helpful to you in identifying an appropriate project or case, and successfully completing the assignment.
1. Try to identify a managerial problem in an environment familiar to you. Problems are all-pervasive in organizations, and few exist that cannot be modeled successfully by a decision theory and/or management science approach.
2. Begin now to define your project. Most poor projects (both in academia and in the "real world")_ are the result of procrastination – waiting until the last minute, and "throwing something together." I'll be happy to act as a consultant to help you focus an idea you may have.
3. To give you an idea of the wide variety of managerial problems amenable to projects of this kind, consider the following projects pursued by former students in this course.
a. Maximizing tax write-offs by optimizing the mix of vegetables planted in a "hobby garden."
b. Analyzing career alternatives.
c. Modeling and solving a kitchen equipment modernization problem for a local restaurant.
d. Optimizing the assignment of water-meter readers in a West Texas city.
e. Finding the lowest-cost material mix for plastic cases for wrist-watches.
f. Analyzing a problem of bidding on research proposals by a university's engineering department.
g. Assessing the impact of university tenure policy on future faculty mix.
h. Determining optimal site selection for regional supermarket chain.
i. Scheduling professional development seminars in an eight-state region of the "Sun-belt."
j. Finding the "optimal" tour of Europe for a graduating MBA student.
Policy: The instructor reserves the right to make whatever changes are necessary in the syllabus or in the above-stated procedures. If changes are made, the student will be informed of them.
RELEVANT WEB SITES
burns.ba.ttu.edu
Both of the above sites have jobs databases
ISQS 5242 SYLLABUS—Summer 2003
DATETOPICREADING
INTRODUCTION TO MODELS
7-8aModels and Model BuildingChs. 1
COPING WITH CERTAINTY
7-8bModel Paradigms: Math. Prog. ModelsCh. 2
7-8cLinear Programming ModelsCh. 2
7-10aLinear Programming ModelsCh. 2
7-10bNetwork Programming ModelsCh. 4
7-10cNetwork Programming ModelsCh. 4
7-15aNetwork Programming Models Ch. 4
7-15bInteger Programming Models Ch. 3
7-15cInteger Prog and ReviewCh. 3
7-17aReview
7-17bEXAM 1
7-17cEXAM 1
COPING WITH RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
7-22aDecision Making under UncertaintyCh. 6
7-22bDecision Making under Risk Ch. 6
7-22cProbability Trees
7-24aDecision Trees
7-24bUtility Theory & Game TheoryCh. 6
7-24cQueuing Models
7-29aReview
7-29bEXAM II
7-29cEXAM II
COPING WITH CHANGE AND COMPLEXITY
7-31aContinuous Deterministic Simulation Models
7-31bContinuous Deterministic Simulation Models
7-31cContinuous Deterministic Simulation Models
8-5aStochastic Simulation Models Ch. 10
8-5bStochastic Simulation Models
8-5cReview
8-7FINAL (8:00 – 10:30—this room—BA LH 007)
Last day to drop and receive an automatic W: July 25’03
ISQS 5242/5342 Survey
July 8, 2003
- Have you had a course in management science or operations research or decision theory before, at either the graduate or undergraduate level? (YES/NO)
- Have you seen linear programming before, possibly in a math course? (YES/NO)
- Have you solved decision trees before? (YES/NO)
- Have you worked with simulation models before? (YES/NO)
- Are you familiar with the use of spreadsheets? (YES/NO)
- Do you believe that (the content of) this course is genuinely worthwhile for your career and major? (YES/NO)
- What is your major and if MBA, what is your concentration within the MBA?
- What type of work do you plan to do following graduation?
- Do you believe there is enough information technology content in your major? (TOO MUCH/ENOUGH/NOT ENOUGH)
- Do you believe there is enough management science content in your major? (TOO MUCH/ENOUGH/NOT ENOUGH)
- Are you familiar with the Senge concept of "mental Models?" (YES/NO)
If YES, where did you hear of this concept?
- Are you familiar with the Senge concept of "shared vision?" (YES/NO)
If YES, where did you hear of this concept?
- Are you familiar With the Senge concept of "team learning?" (YES/NO)
If YES, where did you hear of this concept?
- What in your opinion is the most important tool in this course that you need to advance your professional career?
- What type of learner are you? (visual, auditory, physical)
Decision Theory & Management Science -- Summer II 2003 – page 1