Data: Retiree influx boosts population growth in region
By ONOFRIO CASTIGLIA | The Winchester Star Jan 27, 2018 Updated Jan 27, 2018
Since 2010, the Winchester metro area has been the second fastest-growing region in Virginia, behind only Northern Virginia, while the state has been experiencing its lowest population growth in a almost century, according to state demographics data.
The rate of new people moving to Virginia is the lowest it has been since the 1920s, population estimates released by the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service indicate.
The estimates are from 2010 to July 1, 2017.
Hamilton Lombard, a demographer at the center who prepared the data, said fewer births, more deaths and more people leaving Virginia than moving here has impacted growth.
Despite the slowed rate, Virginia is expected to continue growing and overtake New Jersey and Michigan to become the 10th most populous state in the country by 2040. It is currently ranked the 12th largest state.
While the federal government defines the Winchester metro area as Winchester, Frederick County and Hampshire County, W.Va., the Weldon Cooper Center only studies Virginia’s population.
Lombard attributes growth in the Northern Shenandoah Valley to an influx of retirees, not births or young families moving to the area.
Since the 2010 census, Winchester’s population has grown from 26,203 to 28,005, or about 6.9 percent; Frederick County from 78,305 to 85,820, or about 9.6 percent; and Clarke County from 14,034 to 14,312, or roughly 2 percent. Virginia’s overall population grew by 5.9 percent to reach nearly 8.5 million people.
Based on the center’s 2016 estimates, Winchester had 27,531 people, Frederick County 83,998 and Clarke County 14,240. So from 2016 to 2017, each locality grew by approximately 1.7 percent, 2.2 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.
In 2017, Winchester and Frederick County had the highest growth rate by percentage in Virginia at 2.1 percent, Lombard said. The entire state grew by less than one percent last year.
By 2040, populations in Winchester, Frederick and Clarke could balloon to 33,031, 114,663 and 15,965, respectively, Lombard said. Virginia’s population is expected to climb to 10.2 million, though that figure could be revised downward.
“We do seem to be seeing a bit more growth ... in just the last year,” Lombard said of Winchester and Frederick County, noting that about a third of that growth is people age 65 and older, which is “very high” for the state.
Growth is expected to continue in densely populated Northern Virginia region, and that will send retirees to the Winchester area in search of cheaper and more comfortable living, Lombard said.
Since 2010, 60 percent of all growth in the state was concentrated in Northern Virginia. Prince William County has overtaken Virginia Beach as the second-most populous locality in Virginia. Fairfax County remains number one.
The Hampton Roads and Richmond metro areas have also grown significantly at rates of 3.9 and 6.2 percent, respectively, according to Weldon Cooper. Those regions and Northern Virginia account for 93 percent of growth in the state since 2010.
Outside of Virginia’s urban crescent (Northern Virginia, Richmond and Hampton Roads), there is far less growth, with some notable exceptions. Since 2010, the Winchester metro area was the state’s second fastest-growing metro area, while the Harrisonburg area was third and the Charlottesville area was fourth.
Lombard said a lack of housing stock is one reason for the state’s population stagnation.
“What’s held people back is not knowing whether they can find a house because there is such a shortage,” Lombard said.