Creating an Expert System, Selecting Decision Making Software and Closing Case Studies

Experiential Exercise #8

The purpose of this activity is to give you more experience and exposure to how expert systems are created and how they can be used, as well as what they can do. You will also look at different decision making situations, picking the type of software that would be best to use to solve that particular problem. Finally, you will examine ethical issues behind the use of expert systems.

This exercise will require that students create/write their answers in Microsoft Word. You will also create a diagram/picture in your Word document, and the file that you create will be submitted to S drive (you will also hand in your written report).

To begin this exercise, you will first want to take a look at the pages in both the custom Stair and custom Haag texts where expert systems are discussed, looking for examples and applications of rule-based expert systems. For example, you will want to check out the Traffic Light Expert System found on page 261 in the custom lecture text.

Your task is to create the rules for a paper-based expert system that will provide advice on the type of clothes to wear based upon the weather. Your expert system should have a minimum of 8 different rules that will lead to several possible outcomes. Based upon your life-long experience of dealing with daily decisions regarding the weather and what clothes to wear, you can decide what questions should be asked, and what the ultimate recommendations should be

You will ask Yes/No questions, with a Yes answer leading down one path, and a No Answer leading down another path.

Each question will have further branching, which ultimately leads to a recommended solution regarding what to wear in a particular situation or set of circumstances.

To create your expert system, you will need to use the Drawing Toolbar in Microsoft Word and create a diagram/flow chart similar to what you see above. (I suggest using a series of textboxes and arrowed lines). The textboxes should contain the questions that are being asked. For example, question #2’s textbox might contain the following text, “If yes, is it ……………” while question #3’s textbox might contain the following text, “If no, is it …………..” (of course, the ………… represents the actual question that you are asking, which has a Yes/No answer). Your final textboxes (lowest level) will contain the recommended advice to the user.

After creating and drawing your expert system, you need to develop 4 scenarios to add to your report where you simulate an expert system “consultation”. In each scenario/consultation, you will simulate the expert system asking you a question, and you will simulate your response, writing down the questions and pathways that lead to the ultimate decision/recommendation. Your 4 scenarios should be set up similar to what is seen in Figure 4.7 on page 261 of your custom lecture text.

Which type of decision making software would you use?

The table below shows a number of decision making types of software

Decision Support System / Geographic Information System
Expert System / Neural Network
Genetic Algorithm / Intelligent Agent

What follows are several decision making problems. Using the software listed in the table, indicate which type or types of decision making software you would use for each of the situations described. For each problem situation, you will need to indicate the following:

·  What your decision making problem is (seen below)

·  Which decision-making software that they would use, indicating why you would use that type of software to solve that particular problem. You might want to focus on characteristics of the problem and how that particular system is used to solve that type of problem.

·  You will also need to pick 2 alternative types of software found in the table AND indicate why those forms of software would NOT be used to solve that type of problem. In creating your response for this part, you will want to mention the types of problems those alternative systems are used to solve, and how the scenario’s problem does not fit those type of characteristics.

Here are the decision making scenarios you are considering:

·  You and another marketing executive on a different continent want to develop a new pricing structure for products.

·  You want to predict when customers are about to take their business elsewhere.

·  You are filling out a tax form, or some other type of form, and you want the system to automatically fill in certain areas for you (such as name, address, id, etc.)

·  You want to determine the fastest and/or shortest route for package delivery to 23 different addresses in a city.

·  Given a limited amount of advertising dollars, you want to decide where to spend those advertising dollars (TV, radio, newspaper, direct mail, e-mail)

·  You want to continually keep track of, and have updated prices for, the prices that your competitors are charging for comparable goods and services.

Please make sure that you justify and fully explain ALL of your answers. Your responses to all of these questions require careful thought and consideration.

Your next activity in this exercise is to read the Closing Case Study #1 on pages 279-280 in your custom lecture text. Please answer question #2 on page 280.

Your final activity in this exercise is to read the Closing Case Study #2 on pages 280-281 in your custom lecture text.

Students will then complete all of the following questions on page 281 (note: each question should be answered in a several sentence paragraph where you FULLY EXPLAIN your reasoning):

·  All parts to question #1 (4 questions total)

·  All parts to question #3 (2 questions total)

·  All of question #4

·  Answer these questions based on #5 (Do you think that this segmentation process is fair to business stockholders? Do you think that this segmentation process is fair to customers? Does it matter if it is fair or not? Why or why not? Should there be laws against it, or laws controlling it, or none at all? Explain and justify all of your answers.

·  There are 5 parts to question #6. Please respond to the first 4 questions

·  All of question #7

Please make sure that you justify and fully explain ALL of your answers. Your responses to all of these questions require careful thought and consideration.

In terms of how this activity is graded, I have a baseline idea regarding how these questions can be answered, but obviously, you will have a chance to express your own opinions as well. There will be some comparison grading that goes on when I evaluate your responses. I will be comparing the quality of your response with the responses of others that are completing this activity. You need to fully support what you have to say (i.e. justify your answer). You need to convince me that you have written a well-thought-out response and that you are not just rushing through the exercise writing answers as fast as you can type. Your grade will be based upon the quality of your response. Of course, spelling and grammatical errors will count as well, so you want to keep them to a minimum. None of the questions in this exercise can be answered in 1-2 sentences.

As part of this activity, you will also need to hand in an evaluation form. This form will be used to provide me with some feedback related to this activity. Visit http://info.cba.ksu.edu/bkovar/Xperiential/evaluation.doc and make a printout of that evaluation form.

Since I would like to see the diagram/flow chart of your expert system, you will also need to submit your word processing file in some sort of named folder to the KSU Online file dropbox. All students who complete Experiential Exercise #8 as Extra Credit will submit their work to the Extra Credit, Experiential Exercise #8 folder (there are no section folders).

The packet of printouts that you submit for this exercise should contain the following, in this order, and stapled:
1. A cover page with the usual required information on it.

2. Your Expert System write-up (containing both your flow chart/diagram and your simulation scenarios).
3. Your typed responses to the six decision making scenario questions.

4. Your typed responses to the questions on from the custom Haag text.

4. The Evaluation form.
Since this form is used to provide feedback to me, I will probably remove it from your packet, which is why it is best to make this be the last page in your packet.

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