CONVICTED IMMIGRANTS MUCH LESS LIKELY TO RE-OFFEND IF GIVEN THE RIGHT TO WORK LEGALLY

Illegal immigrants who have committed crimes are far less likely to re-offend if they are given the right to stay and work in the country. That is one of the findings of new research by Giovanni Mastrobuoni and Paolo Pinottito be presented at the Royal Economic Society’s 2011 annual conference.

Their study examines the criminal records of just under 2,400 immigrants in Italy who were released early from prison in August 2006. Among them were 725 Romanians and Bulgarians who within five months obtained legal status as a result of enlargement of the European Union (EU). The remaining immigrants in the sample were from European countries still applying for EU membership. The research finds that:

  • In the five months before EU enlargement, the rate of re-offence was the same among the Romanians, Bulgarians and other immigrants – around 6% were arrested in all groups.
  • After EU enlargement, the rate of re-offence by Romanians and Bulgarians dropped to 2.3% in the first half of 2007.
  • The most dramatic reductions were among those whose original offences were economically motivated, such as robberies and thefts.
  • The effect was stronger in the north of Italy where the job opportunities are best. Re-offending rates in the north fell from 6.6% to 1.4%.

Because in Italy foreign immigrants do not go to prison for being illegally present in the country, the authors interpret the changes in re-offending rates as evidence of a reduction in the number of crimes committed, possibly in response to better labour market opportunities in the official economy. They conclude:

‘Aside from the humanitarian and ethical reasons, policy-makers and the public should carefully weigh these facts when considering the option of a tightening of migration policy in the wake of increasing economic and political turmoil in neighbouring countries.’

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On 1 January 2007, nearly 30 million people from Romania and Bulgaria obtained the right to free movement within the EU. This event was followed with apprehension by some of their fellow European citizens, who were concerned about the alleged connection between immigration and crime. But opponents of open-door policies overlook that fact that the right to move and work freely may avert a number of immigrants from illegal activities by granting them a job in the official economy.

This study shows that the attainment of legal status lowered the recidivism rate of new EU citizens from Romania and Bulgaria released in Italy after a collective clemency bill on 1 August 2006.

Within a few days, 22,000 men with less than three years of residual sentence were freed because of overcrowding in Italian prisons. Among them, there were 725 Romanians and Bulgarians, who acquired legal status five months later as a consequence of the EU enlargement, as well as 1,622 citizens of candidate member countries, who do not yet enjoy the right to free movement.

The study tracks the criminal records of these two groups of people for one and a half years after they were released from prison and shows that the recidivism rate was exactly the same until the date of the EU enlargement – between 5.7% and 5.8% were rearrested over a five month period. Then, after EU enlargement, the recidivism rate of Romanians and Bulgarians dropped dramatically – to 2.3% over the first half of 2007 – while it remained unchanged for the other group.

Since in Italy foreign immigrants do not go to prison just for being illegally present in the country – any such provision was deemed anti-constitutional by the Supreme Court in 2004 – the researchers interpret the change as evidence of a reduction in the number of felonies committed by individuals from new EU member countries after obtaining legal status, possibly in response to better labour market opportunities in the official economy.

Consistent with this view, the reduction in recidivism occurred only among people previously incarcerated for having committed economically motivated offences, such as robberies and thefts. The reduction was stronger – from 6.6% to 1.4% – in Northern regions, where access to official markets provides immigrants with better earning opportunities relative to the South of Italy.

This evidence suggests that one of the reasons behind the involvement of immigrants in criminal activities may be the poor labour-market prospects associated with illegal status, as well as several other constraints imposed by migration restrictions.

ENDS

‘MigrationRestrictionsandCriminalBehaviour:EvidencefromaNaturalExperiment’ by Giovanni Mastrobuoni and Paolo Pinotti

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