Conflict Webs in the Horn of Africa: a Critical Assessment, 2002

CONFLICT WEBS IN THE HORN OF AFRICA: A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT, 2002 –

2013

ANTONY MBURU

R67/42741/2011

A PROJECT SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS OF BACHELOR OF ARTS DEGREE IN DIPLOMACY AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES (SECURITY STUDIES) TO THE INSTITUTE OF DIPLOMACY AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES (IDIS), UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI

SEPTEMBER 2014

DECLARATION

This project is my original work and has not been submitted for examination to any other University.

Signed………………………………………Date …………………………..

Antony Mburu

This project has been submitted for examination with my approval as University Supervisor;

Signed……………………………………..Date …………………………….

Dr. Ibrahim Farah

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DEDICATION

To my mother Elizabeth Wanjiku and brother Francis Kamau for their patience, encouragement and understanding. And to my sponsor‟s, SOS Children‟s Home Village Nairobi for their financial support in sponsoring my education for the four‟s that I have been in campus.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

The completion of this work has been possible due to the continued support and encouragement that I have received from my friends and my classmates. I would also like to express my appreciation to the Institute of Diplomacy and International Studies for giving me an opportunity to acquire new skills and broadening my understanding.

I would like to thank Dr. Farah my supervisor for his patience and personal assistance in providing direction and guidance throughout the course of the study.

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ABSTRACT

The study seeks to contribute to the debate concerning conflict webs in the Horn of Africa from 2002-2013. The Horn of Africa sub-region region has been prone to continues violent conflicts which have their roots in the colonial era and the cold war period. The overall objective of the study is to access the impact of conflicts webs in the Horn of Africa, the causes of the conflict, the actors, issues and process of mitigating the conflict in the Horn of Africa. The study identified the regional security complex theory as the suitable theory in explaining the conflict dynamic in the Horn of Africa security complex. The theory asserts that regions are structurally open to intervention from global and regional hegemons. According to new regionalist scholar‟s regional subsystems are not closed as the global system, therefore they suffer from an overlay. Furthermore they argue that geographic proximity causes security dilemma because state are more concerned or threatened by their neighbors than countries that are far away. On the contrary the theory asserts that local intense security issues create an intense environment between member states which has in turn led to spillover of conflict. The theory also asserts that Regional organizations facilitate joint repression rather than integration which has been the case in the Horn of Africa region where member states have used Intergovernmental Authority on Development to further their interest. Furthermore the study discusses the key issue and actors who are involved in the Horn of Africa region conflict webs. Correspondingly the study discusses that the intergovernmental Authority on Trade and Development seeks to attain favorable regional political environment in which regional security can thrive. In addition the study observes that the shared interests and problems among member states continue to exacerbate conflict in the region, therefore undermining efforts put in place by Intergovernmental Authority on Trade and Development. In the same way the study therefore establishes that any solution or efforts to promote peace and security in the region must incorporate all the key actors that seek to benefit from the conflict and those who will benefit after the conflict.

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

AUAfrica Union

CEWARNConflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism

CPAComprehensive peace agreement

HOAHorn of Africa

IGADIntergovernmental Authority on Development

PSCAfrica Union Peace and Security Council

RSCRegional security complex

TFGTransitional federal government

UICUnion of Islamic Courts

USAUnited States of America

USSRUnion of Soviet Socialist Republic

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

DECLARATIONii

DEDICATIONiii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTiv

ABSTRACTv

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONSvi

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION TO THE STUDY

Introduction1

1.1 Background3

1.2 Statement of the Research Problem5

1.3 Objective of the Study6

1.4 Literature Review6

1.5 Literature Gap10

1.6 Justification of the Study11

1.8 Hypotheses14

1.9 Research Methodology14

1.10 Chapter Outline15

CHAPTER TWO: CONFLICT WEBS IN THE HORN OF AFRICA: AN OVERVIEW

2.0 Introduction16

2.1Colonial Legacy16

2.2 Arming the Horn of Africa during the Cold War19

2.3 The Horn of Africa and Cold War Politics as Source of Insecurity21

2.4 Proxy Wars in the Horn of Africa22

2.5 Conclusion23

CHAPTER THREE: CONFLICT WEBS IN THE HORN OF AFRICA: ACTORS,

CAUSES AND PROCESSES OF MANAGEMENT

3.0 Introduction25

3.1 An Over View of Conflict in the Horn of Africa25

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3.2 Actors27

3.2.1 Member States27

3.2.2 International Community28

3.3 Causes of Conflict29

3.3.1 Frontiers and Borderland Disputes29

3.4 IGAD and Conflict Resolution in the Horn of Africa30

3.5 Conflict Prevention, Management and Resolution Mechanism of the IGAD31

3.6 The IGAD – AU Relations in Conflict Resolution33

3.7 Cooperation and Interference33

3.8 Conclusion34

CHAPTER FOUR: CONFLICT WEBS IN THE HORN OF AFRICA: A CRITICAL

ANALYSIS

4.0 Introduction36

4.1Emerging Issues37

4.2 Multidimensionality of Conflict in Horn of Africa37

4.3 War Economy in the Horn of Africa39

4.4 Complexity of Regional Security in the Horn of Africa41

4.5 The Effectiveness of IGAD‟s Contribution to Peace and Security42

4.6 Conclusion44

CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS

5.0 Summary46

5.1. Key Findings47

5.2. Recommendations48

BIBLIOGRAPHY49

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CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION TO THE STUDY

Introduction

The Horn of Africa is a region of geographic strategic importance, with interest coming from both surrounding and external entities.1 Correspondingly Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan, border two crucial sea routes that is the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea. These waterways are currently regaining importance in international maritime trade now that number of Middle Eastern, Asian countries and the Russian Federation are trying to open new markets in Africa in the aftermath of the Cold War.2

In addition the Horn of Africa region is also emerging as a potentially lucrative market for Asian electronic technology; member states continue to discover oil and globalization has boosted international trade. These factors have combined to make the Horn of Africa an important region in the international economic arena of the twenty-first century. Furthermore South Sudan is promising to be potential major producer of oil, at the same time the country has significant water reserves and agricultural capacity that could make it a meaningful contributor to regional development once it attains internal stability.3 Ethiopia on the other hand has enormous water reserves and human resource which can be utilize to contributor to regional prosperity, should its internal problems be resolved.

The study asserts that most comparative analysis of the Horn of Africa conflict system have majorly focused on the importance of the geography and territorial boundaries in understanding

1Lionel Cliffe , Regional Dimensions of Conflict in the Horn of Africa: Published by: Taylor & Francis, Third World Quarterly, Vol. 20, No. 1, Complex Political Emergencies Ltd. Feb 1999 pg. 89-111

2John g Nyuot Yoh, peace processes and conflict resolution in the horn of Africa, African Security Review 2009, 12:3, 83-93,

3ibid

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the conflict the Horn of Africa of the region.4 On the contrary the region has experienced complex conflicts stretching decades and involving numerous parties aiming to advance and eventually achieve own national interest.

Furthermore the study attempts to examine the dynamics of the present and past situation in the Horn of Africa, therefore the study will look at role played by global actors such as the USA and USSR in their quest for global domination during the cold war and post cold war era, and their role in exacerbating the violence.5 In addition the study notes that issues such as oil, pastoral wars, and support of insurgent armed groups by regional states, terrorism and irredentist actions of Somalia, Ethiopia and Eritrea continue to destabilize the region.

As a result the purpose of the study is to sketch out the main features of regional security relations that characterized the cold war and post cold war era. After setting out the analytical framework the study will identify the major emerging security threats that face the region as well as their consequences to regional security. The study will also shed light to the fact that IGAD member states continue to fuel conflict in the region despite ceasefire talks being in progress, the study also notes that regional security has been achieved in situations where regional powers have combined their effort to come up with a collective measures or rather solutions to address the insecurities.

4Barry Buzan and Ole Weaver, Regions and Powers, the Structure of International Security. Published by Cambridge University Press 2003 pg 40-65.

5Fred Halliday, US policy in the Horn of Africa: aboulia or proxy intervention?, Review of African Political Economy 1977 pg 8-32

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1.1 Background

The Horn of Africa region consist of eight States, which constitute of Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea, Uganda and Somalia. The region has been prone to violent conflicts which have in turn undermined peace and security in the region. The prolonged conflicts in the region have created pessimism among the citizens as they have witnessed undemocratic leaders turn promising peace opportunities into another protracted conflict.6

According to Fukuki and Markakis the Horn of Africa conflict are intertwined into three types of conflicts. They assert that the number of domestic conflict that exists within the internal boundaries of the member States has indeed increased; furthermore they note that the intrastate conflicts have political connotations. Secondly they note that interstate conflicts are rooted to the colonial period have been the major catalyst that has exacerbated the conflict. And thirdly is that regional clashes have been fuelled by international actors due to lack of good governance or member states supporting various proxy wars in the region.7

The eight geographically located states are members of Inter Governmental Authority on Trade and Development (IGAD), which is mandated to deal with issues of promoting peace and security. However if Somaliland which has declared autonomy from the rest of Somalia, achieves international recognition as an independent state the number of countries in the region will increase to nine.8 Additionally kidane notes that the Horn of Africa region has experienced four major inter-state wars with not less than three violent conflicts in the post-independence era which have undermined peace and security.

6 Iyob R. Re-configuring identities: clash of Visions in the horn of Africa 1991-1999. Bern: the Swiss Peace Foundation.

7Fukui,K, Markakis J. Ethnicity and conflict in the Horn of Africa, Athens Ohio University Press 1994

8Kidane Mengisteab, critical factors in the horn of Africa‟s raging conflicts, published by nordiskaafrikainstitutet, Uppsala discussion paper no 67 2011.

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Moreover Samatar notes that the Ogaden war between Ethiopia and Somalia, the Ethiopia-Eritrea war and the Sudan Civil war are classical examples of wars which have completely undermined and characterized regional security dynamics in the Horn of Africa.9 He further notes that occurrence of these wars cannot be fully explained in terms of their contextual factors alone, since effective domestic and regional governance by the postcolonial state could have managed them without resort to violence.

On the other hand Negash and Tronvoll argue that the Ethiopian-Eritrea war and the endless civil war in Somalia continue to undermine and complicate issues of peace and security in the Horn of Africa region.10 As a result the wars in these countries have led to spill-over effects to relatively stable States like Kenya and Djibouti, both in terms of influx of refugees and proliferations of small arms light weapons. Correspondingly Cliffe notes that the formation of tribal and clan militia in Somalia has indeed exacerbated insecurity situation in most of the Horn of Africa states, which in turn forced Ethiopia to intervene in Somalia.11

9Samatar, A.I. and W. Machaka, “Conflict and Peace in the Horn of Africa: A Regional Approach”, inIn Quest for aCulture of Peace in the IGAD Region. Heinrich Boll Foundation Nairobi 2006, pg 26–55.

10Negash,TTronvoll K. Brothers at War: Making sense of the Ethiopian Eritrean war, published by Lawrenceville: red sea press 2000.

11Cliffe, L.andP.While, “Conflict Management and Resolution in the Horn of Africa”, in Mwaura, C. and S. Schmeidl (eds), Early Warning and Conflict Management in the Horn of Africa. Trenton NJ: Red Sea Press 2002.

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1.2 Statement of the Research Problem

The Horn of Africa has been Prone to violent conflicts since the colonial and post-colonial period. The continuous reoccurrence of violence and the inter-links of the conflicts in the region is the major focus of this study. The study also notes that the problem on insecurity in the Horn of Africa has not been given the attention it deserves and that the major efforts which have been taken have not resolved the issue if conflict. Furthermore the study notes older unresolved conflicts in the region have been reinvested into the emerging security threats in the region. However in addressing the problems of protracted conflict in the Horn of Africa, regional actors as well as the international community have failed to address the main root causes which are embedded in colonial legacy and the structural deficiencies in governance.

When compared to other regional security complexes in African regions the Horn of Africa conflict system is considered to be the most volatile region. Furthermore the region continues to deteriorate with different actors fighting for their interest to be secured. Consequently an all inclusive premeditated intervention by IGAD and regional member has not had any success in resolving the continuous violence in the region because of the diversity and complexity of the nature of conflicts in the region. In this regard the study seeks to analyze the Horn of Africa as a conflict prone region, and also seeks to explore the protracted conflict situation despite the diverse conflict management efforts in this relatively volatile region. The study seeks to assess the reason why no bidding solution is yet to be reached becomes the premier concern of this study, considering the enormous efforts and measures put in place by IGAD and member states to resolving the violence.

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1.3 Objective of the Study

The overall objective of the study is to critically assess the webs of conflict in the Horn of Africa

sub-region. More specifically, the study aims to:

i)Provide an overview of conflict webs in the Horn of Africa sub-region;

ii)Analyze the actors, issues and processes of managing conflict in the Horn of Africa sub region;

iii)Explore measures taken to promote peace and security in the Horn of Africa sub-region.

1.4 Literature Review

A lot has been written about the conflict in Horn of Africa sub-region. This section focuses on the various debates by different scholars regarding the conflict in the Horn of Africa. In this review the study will explore the literature on protracted conflict in the Horn of Africa.

The African continent has been depicted as a dark continent which continues to suffer from security dilemmas. Three main schools of thought are utilized in this study. A focus through the realist school of thought provides a view or rather an understanding of interstate suspicion, which is identified by military buildup as the main cause of war and interstate rivalry in the Horn of Africa; this was the case during the Ogaden war of 1976.12 A focus through the liberal school of thought provides a synopsis of a continent with minimal success in regional and sub-regional cooperation in the sphere of peace security. Lastly, a focus through the human security school of

12John Baylis, Steve Smith and Patricia Owens, theGlobalization of World Politics: An Introduction to InternationalRelations: published by Oxford University Press 2005, 5thedition

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thought identifies a region that is characterized by poverty, unemployment, violation of human rights, famine displacement of people, poor health facilities and a region faced with environmental degradation.13 The three schools of thought establish an entry point into understanding the conflict and level of insecurity in the Horn of Africa.

A historical context of the existing conflict is used to explain the complex conflict within the region. Ali Mazrui states that one of the root causes of war in Africa lies in the white man‟s legacy comparison of pre-colonial and post-colonial wars. A seed of post-colonial war lies in the sociological and political mess created by colonial rulers in Africa.14 The colonial rulers destroyed old methods of conflict resolution instilled in the African traditional institutions, without creating subsystems that would work for the indigenous people. Looking at Somali as a casing point, Said Barre replaced the council of elders with his own handpicked chiefs who were only answerable to him. Consequently any conflict within the community ended up in the police post or chiefs camp. As a result this made clans resort to the use of force as a result of the deprivation of avenues of dispute resolution.15

In a position paper entitled conflict and peace management in the Horn of Africa, Makumi Mwagiru highlights the meaning of Horn of Africa Conflict system. He argues that the internationalized character of the conflict system in the Horn of Africa has led to a far reaching implication of the entire geographical landscape of the Horn of Africa. According to Mwagiru, the notion that numbers of conflict in the region are purely internal is a sound beginning point for analysis and managing conflict. He goes further to argue that any particular conflict should be

13 Ibid

14Mazrui Ali, conflict in Africa: an overview, edited by Pumphery and Schwartz- Barcott, armed conflict in Africa, published by Baltimore Maryland Scare crow press 2003

15Mohammed A, Humanitarian intervention in Africa: A retrospective study of Somalia,, In contemporary Security in Africa Vol 1, No 1, published in April 2012 pp: 44-62

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analyzed and managed in the context of the conflict system to which they belong. This approach gives useful pointer to the wider cause of conflict and eventually to a suitable management approach that can be adopted.16