CUMBRIA
COMMUNITY SAFETY
STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT
CUMBRIA SUMMARY
November 2013
Ali Wilson
Senior Research, Information & Intelligence Officer
BACKGROUND
The Crime & Disorder Regulations 2007 place a statutory duty on Community Safety Partnerships (CSPs) to prepare a Community Safety Strategic Assessment of crime and disorder in their local areas.
The aim of thisAssessment is to provide partners with an understanding of the levels and patterns of crime, disorder and substance misuse in the county and local areas by providing statistical analysis and information about crime, changes and patterns over time and, where possible, explanation as to why these changes have occurred.
This assessment highlights the county’s priorities for the Safer & Stronger Thematic Partnership, the CSPs and other responsible authorities working together to tackle crime, disorder and substance misuse. It draws on issues raised by those working or living in the local communities and what they feel should be considered andaddressed.
This Assessmentprovides the evidence base for the development of Cumbria’s Community Safety Agreement. It aims to help identify, target and prioritise resources and interventions in order to combat crime and disorderby informing strategic plans and policies.
This summary report is part of a collectionof documents which make up the Cumbria Community Safety Strategic Assessment. This report should be read in conjunction with the Cumbria Community Safety Strategic Assessment Technical Report and the District Summary Reports for Allerdale, Barrow, Carlisle, Copeland, Eden and South Lakeland. All reports are updated on an annual basis.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Cumbria is a relatively safe place to live where crime rates and the risk of crime are low. Total numbers of crime have recently fallen and have been year on year. This is true in all of the districts with the exception of Barrow where numbers have risen in the last year.
There has been a substantial fall in the number of hate crime incidents; and numbers of those killed or seriously injured on Cumbria’s roads. In addition to this, there has been a notable fall in the number of anti-social behaviour incidents involving young people as well as alcohol related offences against the person.
People living in Cumbria have confidence in their local police teams, believe they do a good job and can be relied upon. The greatest concern for the residentsin Cumbria are speeding vehicles; followed by dangerous driving; and having your home broken in to.
Those areas with high levels of crime and disorder are predominantly urban areas with high levels of deprivation, low life expectancy and other health issues, unemployment and benefit claimants; they have high proportions of low income households and often workless households; and high levels of child poverty. High crime areas arecities or towns and surrounding urban areas ofCarlisle, Barrow, Workington, Whitehaven, Penrith and Kendal. Although this is a recognisable pattern there are crimes in other areas such as the rural and otherwise affluent ward of Askham in Eden where levels of drug crime is high; and the popular tourist areas such asLakes Grasmere where there is a notable level of incidents of theft from a motor vehicle.
Although total crime has fallen in the county levels of burglary other and theft from a motor vehicle have increased. The district of Barrow has experienced the greatest increase in the number of theft from a motor vehicleincidents with numbers more than doubling. Although criminal damage incidents have fallen, levels are above average for Cumbria’s compared to other similar forces; this picture is reflected in all districts with the exception of Eden. Domestic violenceincidents have increasedin Cumbria as well as rates ofrepeat victims which is a concern. Over demand for services relating to alcohol and substance misusecontinues to increase, in some areas demands cannot be metresulting in many users being placed on a managed waiting list. Alcohol related hospital admissionsare rising and rates ofunder 18s admitted to hospital with alcohol specific conditions are above national levels. Numbers of criminal damageoffences are falling however Cumbria’s performance against other areas across the country remains relatively low.
The typical offender in Cumbria is most likely to be aged 18-30 years and male;and the typical victim is aged 18-30years and female.
The implications of welfare reform and the impact this may have on individuals and families across the county should be taken into consideration when planning priorities and forecasting levels of crime throughout 2014. As we see levels of household income reduce through benefit cuts we may see an increase in crime, potentially acquisitive crime as well as domestic violence as financial pressures increase.
PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES
Cumbria’s current population is499,100. It is the second largest county in England but with a population of just under 500,000it is the second least densely populated county in the country. Over 50% of the Cumbrian population live in rural communities spread across the county which brings diverse and unique challenges for partners and authorities and the way in which we provide services.
Cumbria is made up of six districts: Allerdale, Barrow, Carlisle, Copeland, Eden and South Lakeland. Its largest urban areas are Barrow, in the South West of the county, and Carlisle in the North of the county.
Population (Source: Office for National Statistics, 2011 Census Based Mid-Year Estimates)
Allerdale / Barrow / Carlisle / Copeland / Eden / South Lakeland / Cumbria96,300 / 68,400 / 108,000 / 70,300 / 52,700 / 103,500 / 499,100
Over the last 10 years (2002 v 2012) the county’s population has increased and this is reflected in all districts with the exception of Barrow where its population has decreased.
Cumbria has an older population; 28% of its residents are aged 60years+ compared to just 23% nationally, and this proportion of older people is increasing at a faster rate in Cumbria than it is nationally. The number of young people is in decline and this decline is forecast to continue.
The proportion of residents from Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) groups is much lower in Cumbria than it is nationally at 4.9% compared to 16.7% nationally. However, the proportion of BME residents has been increasing much more rapidly in Cumbria than it has been nationally. Although we can not determine the exact number of migrants we can use new registrations for National Insurance numbers as a proxy. Numbers of registrations have been gradually declining since 2006 with a significant fall in recent years.
Employment in Cumbria is mainly based in the manufacturing and tourism sectors; reflecting the nuclear and shipbuildingindustries in Copeland and Barrow-in-Furness, and the role of the Lake DistrictNational Parkand other areas of Cumbria as popular tourist destinations. Levels of unemployment in Cumbria are below the national average in most places but there are very sharpcontrasts across the county with high levels of unemployment in the urban areas of Barrow and Copeland. Youth unemployment in Cumbria is an issue with rates above national levels in Allerdale, Barrow and Copeland.
Wages and salaries in Cumbria are relatively low with earnings in particular areas significantly lower than national and regional averages. The average median household income in Cumbria is £25,043, compared to £28,024for the rest of the UK. Barrow has the lowest household income of £22,685, whereas Carlisle has the highest at £26,017.Household income in Cumbria has fallen recently reflecting the national picture. More than 33,000households in Cumbria have an income of less than £10,000, around 14.8% of all households, above national levels. House pricesin Cumbria are also lower than they are nationally £133,946 compared to £164,119. However, there is substantial variation between districts; in South Lakeland the average house price is £196,326, above the national average and significantly higher than the average priceof a house in Barrow at £90,385.
There are high levels of poverty and deprivation spread across the county and in particular in the urban areas of Barrow and West Cumbria. Some areas in Cumbria fall within the 10% most deprived areas in the country. Although the prevalence of poverty and deprivation is greater in Cumbria’s urban areas there are pockets of significant deprivation in some of the most rural communities.
Cumbria is a relatively safe place to live with low levels of crime which, overall, have fallen in recent years and continue to fall.
The average life expectancy in Cumbria for males is 78.5 years, marginally higherthan the rest of England at 78.3 years. For females living in Cumbria it is 82.2 years, marginally lower than the rest of England at 82.3 years There is significant variation in life expectancy across the county with an 11 year gap for males between the best area/ward(Askham in Eden) and the worst (Central in Barrow); and 9 years difference for females between the best (Sedbergh in South Lakeland) and the worst (Central in Barrow). In areas where life expectancy is low crime and disorder is prevalent. These areas also tend to be deprived areas characterised by low household income, high levels of unemployment and benefit claimants, and child poverty. Alcohol misuse in the county is an issue with rates of under 18s admitted to hospital with alcohol specific conditionsand admission episodes for alcohol attributable conditionsabove national levels.
Future changes to welfare reform may have an impact on levels of crime. As we see levels of household income reduce through benefit cuts we may see an increase in alcohol and substance misuse,crime and in particular acquisitive crime, as well as levels of domestic violence as household financial pressures increase. Some of these welfare reforms have already taken place including changes to housing benefit, disability living allowance, and reassessments of Incapacity Benefit & Employment Support Allowance. Further changes will continue up to and throughout 2017. Services may see an increase in demand and support as changes to personal and financial circumstances take place.
COMMUNITY SAFETY INFORMATION
This section will present the narrative of community safety within Cumbria.
Two different measures of incidents have been used:
- Number: the exact number of incidents / offences within Cumbria.
- Rate: the number of incidents in relation to Cumbria’s population.
Substance Misuse & Alcohol
Although numbers and rates of some indicators of alcohol misuse have fallen in the last year some still remain above national levels. Local research into alcohol use by young people (14-17 year olds) reports that young people are drinking less often or not at all compared to a couple of years ago (2011); levels of binge drinking have fallen and numbers of those drinking in pubs/clubs and outside on streets and parks have also fallen (however, it is worth noting that 1,363 young people were surveyed, representing just 6% of all 14-17 year olds in the county). Alcohol misuse in particular has a significant impact on crime and anti-social behaviour, with wider impacts on health and the health services particularly emergency services. Rates of alcohol related admissions are rising and are above national levels; and rates of under 18s admitted to hospital with alcohol specific conditions; and binge drinking are above national averages.
Numbers of alcohol related offences against the person have fallen in the county, as well as other alcohol related crimes, however, rates of recorded crimes attributable to alcohol in Barrow (7.1) and Carlisle (7.6) are above national (7.0) and regional (6.7) levels.
Alcohol specific mortality rates have fallen, however, mortality rates for females in Cumbria are above national levels; and male mortality rates are a concern for both Barrow and Carlisle are also above national levels.
Numbers of service users making contact with Cumbria Drug & Alcohol Services (CDAS) are increasing. Just over one third of service users use alcohol as their main drug (a slight increase from the previous year), and 66% of service users are using drugs. Heroin is the main drug accounting for approximately 75% of drug users. Drug dealing and drug crime, dependency on heroin and alcohol may cause users to commit crimes so by helping those with addictions may help to reduce levels of crime in the county.
Cumbria alcohol and substance misuse needs to be tackled across Cumbria in order to reduce levels of crime and to improve overall health and wellbeing. National research states that improvements can be madethrough intervention at a national and local level, close partnership working between local authorities and those agencies involved, early involvement and intervention with families, schools and other support services and effective treatment programmes.
Alcohol related crimes are falling in the county, however, numbers of those accessing CDAS because does not truly reflect the demand – the demand is much greater than what can be met due to capacity issues. Alcohol misuse and dependency remains an issue in the county.
Reoffending
There are currently 1,919 registered offenders in Cumbria of whom 87% are male. Most are aged between 20-29 years and are of white origin. Violence accounts for almost one third of offences. 22% of offenders show evidence of committing domestic abuse and 20% of offenders have parental responsibility. Over the last 3 years actual rates of reoffending in Cumbria have remained below predicted rates. Over the same period, reoffending rates have fallen. Re-offending remainsa priority for the Partnership which is being addressed through the implementation of integrated offender management systems.
Youth offending
Cumbria Youth Offending Service is built on the basis of strong partnership work across both statutory and voluntary sector organisations. It works hard to balance supervision and surveillance of young people with support and advice to help them change their lifestyles. This helps drive down youth crime in Cumbria continuing to make it a safer place to live, and a place where young people are making better decisions about their behaviour which will help improve their life chances as they move into adulthood and independence.
Nationally, youth crime (proven offences) is falling, numbers of first time entrants aged under 18 years are falling, and the proportion of those aged under 18 yearsin custody are falling. The national picture is reflected in Cumbria with falling levels of youth crime. In the last year, the number of offenders fell by 32.3%, and thenumbers of youth crimes fell by 20%. Numbers of first time entrants aged under 18 years were down by 60%, and the number of those under 18 years in custody fell by 35%.
In 2009/10 in Cumbria, 1,470 young people aged 10-17 yearswere dealt with for criminal behaviour, representing 2.7% of the youth population. By 2011/12, this fell by 52% to 653young people, representing l.4% of those aged 10-17 years.
Given the general reduction in first time entrants there is a less diluted pool of young offenders in Cumbria i.e. those enteringthe Youth Justice System have not managed to be diverted or have offended despite early help, reflecting fluctuating numbers of offences per offender. The reduction in the last year shows the positive impact the Youth Offending Service has had on the offending rate of the “harder to help” group of young people.
Domestic Violence
Nationally it is estimated that 60% of domestic abuse cases are not reported to the police. In Cumbria in the last year numbers of incidents have increased slightly, with the exception of Carlisle and Eden where numbers have fallen. The overall rate of repeat incidents has increased in Cumbria and has been increasing year on year – reducing the number of repeat victims should be a priority. Despite the overall increase they have fallen in Allerdale, Eden and South Lakeland. Over a 3 year period numbers of incidents have increased which may be a reflection of the investment of specialist services. Consideration must be taken, however, when looking at the rise of incidents to other possible contributing factors such as financial pressures, lack of job opportunities, mental health issues and alcohol misuse. Other social factors including welfare reform should also be considered when planning services for the future.
There is a correlation between numbers of domestic abuse incidents and the proportion of children living in poverty. In addition where there are high levels of deprivation, high levels of unemployment, households with low incomes, there are high levels of domestic abuse incidents. Where there are high levels of alcohol related crimes there are also high levels of domestic abuse. There are no significant correlations between levels of educational attainment and numbers of domestic abuse incidents. High numbers of incidents tend to take place in deprived urban areas, however, we must be mindful of hidden and unreported abuse in more affluent and more rural areas.
Changes to welfare reform and essentially benefits and household income could add further financial pressure in the home which may then cause an increase in overall crime as well as domestic violence. Some of these changes have already taken place but further changes will take place from October 2013 and will continue to do so up until 2017. Services may see an increase in demand as changes to personal and financial circumstances take place.
Anti-Social Behaviour (ASB)
Levels of Anti-Social Behaviour continue to fall in Cumbria along with incidents involving young people. This picture is reflected in each of the districts with the exception of Barrow, Copeland and Eden where numbers of incidents have increased. Interventions and preventative work such asPub Watch, the Integrated Offender Management (IOM), local problem solving schemes, Prevent and Deter, the ‘It’s Your Choice’ staged process of dealing with youth ASB and supporting repeat victims of ASB using the ‘Anti-social behaviour risk assessment (ASBRA) have all contributed to the continued reduction in ASB. Reducing the number of incidents involving repeat offenders and repeat victims remain a priority for Cumbria Constabulary.