Academic Essay Writing Contest
Anastasia Smetanina
3rdВyear student
International Relations faculty

China as a superpower

The geopolitical situation in the modern world is rather contradictory. In the 20thВcentury, it was clear who were the superpowers and who dominated the world; nowadays, the situation is quite more complicated. After the USSR’s collapse in 1991, the USA was the single superpower that had a real influence on the rest of the world. However, in the 21stВcentury new states appear which pretend to get the places in the “top” countries, among the economically developed states. For this reason, the USA cannot be the real hegemon which is able to influence all countries in the world. The major factor that made this development possible is globalization. The isolated and semi-isolated countries had to integrate into the global economy and international relations in order not to become the third world countries. Due to this economic and political integration, exchange of knowledge and technology, developing countries become strong enough to have an impact on politics, economy, international relations, and culture, as well. The emergence of new highly developed states greatly reduces the hegemonic influence of the United States. The vivid example of such country is China. Because of its fast development and strengthening position on the world stage, it is concerned that China will be the next superpower; however, it is more likely that China will not be the political and economic predominant force as the United States.

People who share the opinion about China as a superpower usually refer to the economic data. First of all, last decade, China experienced an economic boom which allowed the state to become the second largest economy in the world. More than that, Chinese economy continues to develop, and, in the future, it may overtake the American GDP (Gross domestic product). According to the report of International Monetary Fund, the GDP of China in 2014 was $10.4 billion while in 2013 it was $9.5 billion. Besides, China contributes 13,5% of total world economic output that is also the second result in the world. In Asia, China ranks first on the GDP level. The second argument that is put forward is the Chinese membership in BRICS. As a result, the trade between China and members of BRICS is increasing. As it claims that BRICS will be alternative to the Western model of economic development, China has the attractive prospects. The third argument is the increasing China’s role in Southeast Asia via its domestic economy. Anders C. Johansson in the book “China’s Growing Influence in Southeast Asia – monetary policy and Equity markets.” informs that nowadays China becomes the main trading partner in this region. Trade turnover has increased from 3% on the average in the 1980s to more than 10% on the average in 2010s for five countries. All in all, China will take a leading position based only on economic indicators.

Despite the facts given before that China has good chances to become the superpower, in fact, it does not have a lot of opportunity for economic and political hegemony. Firstly, even though China has a very good average level of life standard; it remains the fairly poor country. One of the features of China is the strong differentiation between poor and rich people in the different provinces. High standards of living are more likely characteristic for megalopolises such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong and for coastal province while the rest of China has significantly lower rates. Secondly, in spite of the fact that the Chinese economy is almost equal the American one, it is necessary to bear in mind that the Chinese population is five times more than American. For this reason, Chinese will be poorer than American anyway. In addition, the development of high standard of living accompanied by the democratization of society. China is ruled by the Communist party and the democratic tendencies are not typical for it. Also, it is necessary to mention that the main foreign trade partners of China are the USA, the European Union, and Japan, and, nowadays, Russian Federation becomes more important partner than before. However, if the USA, the EU, or Japan reduce the trade with China, it will have significant negative aftermaths on the Chinese economy because one of the main sources of revenue in Chinese budget is export. In general, it is not obvious that China will become the superpower in the near future as it is claimed by economists and politicians from different countries.

One of the most important argument which complicates the formation of China as the superpower seems to be the multinational composition of the population. About 56 nationalities reside in the territory of China, and these ethnic groups are placed unevenly across the country. In this way, ethnic conflicts are inevitable. One of such conflicts happens between Chinese and the Uighurs, nationality which live in the Xinjiang autonomous region in the west of China. The cultural features of this population are much different from Chinese, mainly because the Uighurs are Muslim, and it is the reason of a recent conflict situation. In July 2014 BBC News informed that Xinjiang government forbade Muslim staff fasting during the Ramadan, the holy month of Muslim people. This accident led to the involving of tension. Besides, the Chinese government has the serious problems with the Tibetan population due to the forcible annexation of this territory to China in 1951. Moreover, there are other territorial-ethnic conflicts between the Russian Federation and China, China and Vietnam, China and India. As a consequence, the ethnic conflicts and separatist movements weaken positions of China significantly. More than that, Asia-Pacific region is the fastest growing zone in the world, and competition is high enough between its member states. Four Asian Tigers, or Asia’s Four Little Dragons, namely, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan are the most promising states in this region. Thus, the opportunity for China to become the superpower is seemed to be doubtful despite all predictions.

In conclusion, I would like to mention that it is impossible to deny the dominant position of China. The statistics show that the Chinese living abroad controls around 90% of Indonesian trade, 75% of trade in Thailand, and 50-60% of trade in Malaysia. Thus, China makes an economic intervention in this region; in the result, it may lead to the creation of some puppet governments under the patronage of China. However, Chinese power is connected mainly with its economic growth, while it is only the one factor affecting the geopolitical position of China. Such mistake was made when Japan was considered to be a new superpower due to only its economic development; in fact, this prognosis did not implement, because there was a great range of other aspects influenced on the situation in the country. On the whole, the current situation in the Asia-Pacific region promotes the economic influence of China, and it is possible that China will be the economic leader of the world; at the same time, its political hegemony is doubtful due to many reasons listed above. В

Bibliography:

  1. “Projected GDP Ranking (2015-2020).”Statistic Times.В7 Oct. 2016. 29 May 2016.В
  2. Johansson, Anders. “China’s Growing Influence in Southeast Asia – monetary policy and Equity markets”. Stockholm: CERC Working Paper, 2010. 29 May 2016. <
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  5. Churchman, Kyle. “The Dollars and Cents of China's Superpower Fortunes.”The National Interest.31 Jan. 2016. 29 May 2016. <
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