HEALTH UPDATE
Verifiable information regarding the status of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s health remains scarce. However, in consulting with additional doctors who have reviewed pictures and news of Chavez, we have received estimates that Chavez may have no longer than a year to a year and a half left to him. The main diagnoses for a man of his age and condition remain prostate cancer and colon cancer. Lymphoma is also a possibility. Nearly every doctor we have spoken to thinks that the most likely to be colon cancer, which carries with it a very short prognosis.
CHAVEZ SIDELINES ALI RODRIGUEZ
Venezuelan Electricity Minister Rodriguez Araque was removed from his position as the President of CORPOELEC in early September, to be replaced by Argenis Chávez Frías, brother to President Chavez. Simultaneously, it was announced that Roddriguez would be taking the leadership role at UNASUR when the post is relinquished by Ecuador in May 2012. The decision to remove Rodriguez from the head of the failing electricity sector could be read a number of ways. Certainly it is difficult to read this in any light but as a part of the ongoing quiet power struggle as the regime copes with Chavez’s illness. It is possible that Rodriguez – as an important member of the administration – is being removed from a position in which he was vulnerable to political attack and is thus being protected. Rodriguez had failed to upgrading or significantly repair the electricity network and also had a poor relationship with the unions.
On the other hand, it seems almost more possible that with the decision to remove him from the head of the ministry is a signal that he is being sidelined by the Chavez administration. Rodriguez is a critical figure in the regime because of his close ties to Cuba. Putting him at the head of UNASUR allows him to remain busy in a high profile position, but removes him from direct management in Venezuela. If Chavez is trying to minimize Rodriguez's influence, it makes sense to move him to a position that is still high-profile and prestigious.
BIOGRAPHY: RAFAEL RAMÍREZ
Venezuelan President of Petroleos de Venezuela Rafael Ramírez is an engineer by training, having received his bachelors degree from Los Andes University. Ramirez also earned a Master of Science degree in energy production and distribution. Born in Trujillo state, Ramirez' family cultivated coffee. Known to be a pleasant individual with good manners, Ramirez also has a fierce temper.
Before coming to the head of PDVSA, Ramírez was the founding president of Enagas, the national regulatory agency responsible for the national plan for natural gas production and distribution. Ramírez was promoted to his position of Venezuelan Minister of Energy and Mines by Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez in July 2002. On November 20, 2004, Ramírez was selected at the president of the company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), a position that he has held concurrently with that of the Minister of Energy and Petroleum. The Ministry of Energy and Mines became Ministry of Energy and Petroleum in January 2005.
Ramirez' father, Rafael Darío Ramírez Coronado, was an accountant for guerrilla organizations of the 1960s. It has been said that Rafael Darío was very closed to Diego Salazar Longo, founder of the Fuerzas Armadas de Liberación Nacional (FALN), founded in 1963 as a part of the communist-inspired effort to oppose Accion Democratica Venezuelan President Rómulo Betancourt. Militants in this era received organizational and operational training from the Cuban government and relied on urban violence as a means of political influence. Upon Chavez's rise to power, Ramírez Coronado was appointed PDVSA Comptroller, but died soon after. He is said to have been close to Alí Rodriguez Araque.
As a youth, Ramírez had a close relationship with Adán Chávez, whom he met while both were students at the Universidad de los Andes (ULA). It was Adán who introduced Ramírez to Chavez. During this period, Ramírez met Dr. Bernard Mommer who was a professor at ULA. Mommer has played a key role in shaping the oil and natural gas policies of the Venezuela government. This includes the migration from the strategy of using service contracts to seeking out joint ventures, as well as windfall taxes.
Ramírez is a former member of Ruptura (a political movement born from the division of the Party of Venezuelan Revolution), he is thought to have been influenced by Chavez advisor Clever Ramírez Rojas, and Argelia Melet de Bravo, former wife of FALN guerrilla leader Douglas Bravo. Adan Chavez, the current Governor of the State Anzoátegui Tarek W. Saab and the current Attorney General Luisa Ortega Diaz were all fellow members of Ruptura.
Ramírez is married to Beatrice Sansó de Ramírez, the General Manager of PDVSA's cultural affiliate “La Estancia.” She was formerly a lawyer with Hoet, Pelaez, Castillo & Duque law firm, which advises PDVSA. Her mother, Hildegard Rondón de Sansó, is also a legal adviser to PDVSA. Ramírez' brother-in-law, Baldo Sansó Rondón, is an adviser of the MEM but assigned to the Office of the Minister was in charge of the Orinoco Belt Bidding Process.
Union Links
Ramírez has heavy influence over the faction of the Federación Unitaria de Trabajadores de Venezuela (FUTPV) related to exploration and production. FUTPV president Wills Rangel is now part of PDVSA’s Board but Ramirez is trying to replace him with his own man, FUTPV Executive Secretary Argenis Olivares. Despite his strong influence, Ramírez has not been able to completely control the FUTPV board. There are some “non-Ramiriztas” in the labor community, most critically FUTPV Secretary General José Bodas and Corriente Clasista Unitaria Revolucionaria y Autónoma leader Orlando Chirinos.
Current political standing
In May 2011 Chavez restructured the board of Pdvsa to include Venezuelan Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro and Planning Minister Jorge Giordani. These changes were intended to control the internal finance and international business and agreements and can be read as a way of dampening Ramirez’ control over the company. It has been said that Maduro took advantage of this closeness to Chavez during his first long stay in Cuba for cancer treatment, to submit negative reports on Ramirez’s performance.
Ramirez continues to have very poor relations with the military. Ramirez is, however, understood to have a close relationship with “Los Tupamaros.” A street gang with leftist political ambitions, Los Tupamaros took their name from the Uruguayan leftist terrorist organization, and rose to prominence in Venezuela during the Caracazo of 1989. The group has been coopted into the Chavez administration, with many members serving in the government. Their urban warfare tactics have come in handy for the Chavez administration in pressuring political opponents over the years.
After allegations of fraud related to the pension fund of PDVSA, and money laundering (both currently under investigation by federal judges in the United States) Ramirez has kept a low profile. Ramirez rarely appears in the presence of Chavez, and is not mentioned in Chavez’ speeches. Within the governing party, Ramirez does not play a relevant role. He failed as political operator (Maracaibo and Anzoátegui).
Ramirez is rumored to have acquired a European nationality, possibly from Monaco.
FORECAST
Three to Six Months
While the status of Chavez's health remains a serious concern and the most critical of state secrets in Venezuela, the regime does not appear to be in a rush to prepare for Chavez's imminent departure. Elections have been set for Oct. 2012, giving the regime time to prepare for a transition of power, if one is forthcoming. This next quarter will be dominated by the implementation of major economic reforms that include the Ley de Costos y Precios and the nationalization of the gold industry. Chavez will also be occupied with mediating competition within the inner circle elite. Protests have become more common throughout the country and across the political spectrum, and are expected to continue growing. Barring an outside shock like a collapse in oil prices, no major changes to overall stability are expected in the next quarter.
Three Year
While there remain many layers of control within the governing structure of Venezuela, the country is weakening along both economic and political lines. Given his illness, the death or disabling of Hugo Chavez is a serious possibility in the next three years. Furthermore, without regard to who is in power, the current trajectory of the economy heralds an inevitable destabilization. Along with domestic factors like inflation and food shortages, a sudden decline in oil prices -- not at all impossible in the three-year timeframe -- would cause a collapse of social outreach programs and social stability. With these factors combined, there is a high likelihood of severe social destabilization in Venezuela over the next three years that would require the evacuation of personnel on the ground.
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