This report is the collective work of the author and editors, but it relies on extensive information provided by local governments, agencies, and organizations. Inventorying greenhouse gas emissions is an ongoing process; the results reported here may change if more accurate data become available.

The Centre Region Climate Change Action Plan Project is funded by a grant from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection.

Contact information:

302 Walker Building
Department of Geography
The Pennsylvania State University
University Park, PA 16802

Author
Peter D. Howe, doctoral student:

Editors
Dr. Brent Yarnal, Professor of Geography and Associate Head:
Howard Greenberg, Research Associate:

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Table of Contents

1.Introduction

1.01Centre Region Climate Change Action Plan Project

1.02Regional Profile

1.03Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) and Climate Change

1.04Climate Change Impacts in the Centre Region

1.05The Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory

2.Emissions Sources by Sector

2.01Local Transportation

2.02Electricity

2.03On-site Fuels

2.04Waste Management

2.05Agriculture and Synthetic Chemicals

3.Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions

3.01The Centre Region

3.02Municipalities

4.Emissions Over Time: Historical Estimates and Projections

4.01Historical Estimates of GHG Emissions in 1990

4.02Future Projections of GHG Emissions in 2025

4.03Comparing Past, Current, and Future Emissions

5.Methodology

5.01Population, housing, and businesses

5.02Transportation

5.03Electricity

5.04On-site fuels

5.05Waste management

5.06Agriculture and synthetic chemicals

6.References

Appendix A: Emissions from Long-Distance Travel

Total Emissions Including Long-Distance Travel

Components of the Long-Distance Travel Sector

Methodology for Estimating Long-Distance Travel Emissions

Appendix B: Example Scenario—A Possible Option for Climate Change Action

Scenario: Wind Energy Credits for Households

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1.Introduction

1.01Centre Region Climate Change Action Plan Project

The Centre Region Climate Change Action Plan Project (CentreCCAP) is a collaborative effort of the municipalities of Pennsylvania’s Centre Region, which include the Borough of State College and the surrounding townships of College, Ferguson, Halfmoon, and Harris. This document reports the results of Phase 1 of CentreCCAP, a baseline inventory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the year 2006 and a projection of emissions to the year 2025.

CentreCCAP will be completedin five phases:

Phase 1 features a regional GHG emissions inventory for the baseline year 2006. Projections of GHG emissions to the year 2025 are included in phase 1.

Phase 2 convenes focus groups made up of regional stakeholders; the purpose of the focus groups is to establish a list of potential mitigation options tailored to the Centre Region.

Phase 3 features a report that fleshes out the options indentified in Phase 2, describing the option, pros and cons of the option, measures of successful implementation, existing programs addressing the option, stakeholders affected by the option, sources of funding for the option, and additional information.

Phase 4 again convenes focus groups to prioritize the mitigation options, ranking them as high priority (implementation in 1-2 years), medium priority (implementation in 3-4 years), and low priority (implementation in 5-10 years).

Phase 5 aims to establish GHG reduction goals and develop a formal climate change action plan; a Climate Change Committee consisting of representatives of the Centre Region municipal governments will evaluate the potential mitigation options and recommended priorities, commit to a set of options, and adopt a suit of regional GHG reduction goals, and turn that set of goals into a formal climate change action plan, which will go out for public comment and subsequent revision.

1.02Regional Profile



The Centre Region, as defined by membership in the Centre Region Council of Governments, consists of the Borough of State College and the surrounding townships of College, Ferguson, Halfmoon, Harris, and Patton. The main campus of The Pennsylvania State University (Penn State) dominates the Centre Region demographically and economically. Penn State has over 43,000 students, with 13,000 living on campus and most of the rest distributed between the Borough and townships of the Centre Region. The campus employs more than 16,000 faculty and staff. The University has its own emissions inventory and climate change action plan, which will not figure into this inventory because, although the two entities—Penn State and the Centre Region—have a symbiotic relationship, they are significantly different physically, demographically, economically, and governmentally. This difference means that GHG emissions and mitigation plans for the University and for the Region cannot be commensurate. Although it is important for the two entities to work together to coordinate their climate change action plans, the Centre Region must also establish its own plan.

The estimated population of the Centre Region, including non-permanent student residents both on- and off-campus, was nearly 86,000 in 2007. Excluding students, the permanent Centre Region population is roughly 45,000.

Traditional measures of income and poverty can be misleading when applied to a community like the Centre Regionwhich has a large student population. The per capita income for the Centre Region in 2007 was only $19,211 and nearly half, 46.9 percent, of the population and 9.7 percent of families were below the poverty line. Out of the total population, 10.6 percent of those under the age of 18, but only 2.2 percent of those 65 and older were living below the poverty line. Most of those individuals living below the poverty line were university students or the children of university students. Apart from students, the Region consists almost exclusively of middle class individuals and families living traditional middle class lifestyles, with few members of lower- or upper-income groups.

The local economy is a service economy directed towards the employees, students, and visitors. More than a million people visit the Centre Region annually. The small number of heavier industries found in the Centre Region left over the last few decades with economic restructuring. Penn State is the single major employer. Other significant employers include: high tech firms (AccuWeather, C-COR, and Raytheon Intelligence and Information Systems); local, state, and federal government; the hospitality industry (numerous restaurants and hotels); schools, medical facilities, and eldercare; and supermarkets and “big box” retailers.

Table 111: Demographic characteristics of the Centre Region

College / Ferguson / Halfmoon / Harris / Patton / State College / Centre Region
Population (2006 est.) / 9,003 / 16,207 / 2,939 / 4,686 / 12,799 / 39,992 / 85,626
Housing units (2006 est.) / 3,730 / 6,760 / 925 / 1,959 / 5,925 / 12,554 / 31,853
Urban housing units (2000) / 2,890 / 4,237 / 0 / 1,210 / 4,337 / 12,488 / 25,162
Rural housing units (2000) / 323 / 1,462 / 802 / 645 / 637 / 0 / 3,869
Per capita income (2007 $) / 13,116 / 19,211
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2001, 2006b

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1.03Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) and Climate Change

GHGs are atmospheric gases that absorb and reemit infrared radiation back to the surface of the earth. This process is known as the greenhouse effect. As solar radiation warms the earth’s surface, heat is emitted back into the atmosphere. Some of this heat passes through the atmosphere and into space, but GHGs trap a portion of this heat and re-emit it back toward the earth’s surface. There are many compounds that are considered GHGs, but the main GHGs are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.

Human activities since the Industrial Revolution have increased the levels of GHGs in the atmosphere. The majority of emissions have been due to the burning of fossil fuels, which represent a source of stored carbon that was removed from the atmosphere by organisms living millions of years in the past. The burning of fossil fuels returns this carbon to the atmosphere, increasing concentrations of GHGs. These increases in greenhouse gases, along with changes in land cover, alter the balance of energy in the earth’s climate system. These human activities have caused increases in global average temperatures since the middle of the 20th century (IPCC 2007a)(Figure 1-3).Rising levels of GHG emissions will continue to cause increases in global average temperature over the next century; failing to limit and reduce emissions will lead to escalating and irreversible changes in climate across the surface of the earth (IPCC 2007a; Solomon et al. 2009).

Changes in climate resulting from human activity will have broad and substantial impacts. Increases in global average temperature will change local climate and weather patterns across the world, cause sea levels to rise, speed the retreat of glaciers and sea ice, increase the intensity of extreme weather events, lead to species endangerment and extinctions, and ultimately reduce agricultural yields (IPCC 2007b). The cumulative effects of climate change will have widespread social and economic costs (IPCC 2007b). Direct and indirect effects and their costs will profoundly alter ways of life in communities around the world.

1.04Climate Change Impacts in the Centre Region

Residents of Pennsylvania and the Centre Region will experience the effects of climate change firsthand. During the last century, the average annual temperature in Pennsylvania rose by .5 degrees F(UCSUSA 2008). Over the next century, rising temperatures in Pennsylvania are projected to continue and accelerate due to rising levels of GHGs in the atmosphere(UCSUSA 2008; GCRP 2009; Shortle et al. 2009):

  • Between 2010 and 2039, average annual temperatures in Pennsylvania are expected to rise by 2.5 degrees F.
  • Between 2040 and 2060, average temperatures would increase between 4 and 5.5 degrees F, depending on whether emissions continue to rise. By mid century, Eastern Pennsylvania summers are expected to resemble those in North Carolina today. Summers in Western Pennsylvania may resemble those of Kentucky.
  • Between 2070 and 2099, average annual temperatures would rise by 9.5 degrees F if high rates of GHG emissions continue. Under this scenario, an average summer day in Pennsylvania would feel between 13 and 15 degrees warmer at the end of the century than at present. By the end of the century, summers in Eastern Pennsylvania may resemble summers in southern Georgia, and summers in Western Pennsylvania are projected to be similar to those in Alabama.

These projected temperature increases would also subject the Centre Region to more periods of extreme heat. The Centre Region currently experiences less than ten days per year over 90 degrees F. That number is expected to double between 2010 and 2039, and rise to over 40 days per year between 2040 and 2069 and 65 days per year over 90 degrees F between 2070 and 2099. Under a scenario of increasing GHG emissions, the Centre Region could also experience 24 days per year over 100 degrees F during the last quarter of the 21st century.

Rising temperatures and a changing climate are expected to create serious challenges for cities in the northeastern U.S (GCRP 2009). These include:

  • Declining air quality in urban areas due to air pollution from particulates and ground-level ozone, which are exacerbated by higher temperatures.
  • Increasing allergy-related diseases due to rising temperatures, altered precipitation, and increased growth of allergenic-pollen producing plants such as ragweed and poison ivy.
  • Threatened infrastructure, including roads, bridges, railways, communication networks, water systems, and utilities, as the magnitude and frequency of flooding, drought, and storms changes away from historic patterns.
  • Shifting demand on energy, water, and sewer utilities due to changing temperatures and more extreme weather events.

Climate change is also expected to have considerable impacts on rural areas in Pennsylvania (UCSUSA 2008; Shortle et al. 2009), including:

  • Negative effects on dairy farming and other livestock due to summer heat stress.
  • Reduced agricultural production of corn due to higher summer temperatures. Warmer winters may also increase infestation by overwintering insects and diseases.
  • Reduced production of fruits, including apples and grapes, due to the reduction of winter chill periods.
  • Reductions in snow cover that will negatively affect winter recreation and associated industries.
  • Changes in forest composition, such as the elimination of the black cherry and sugar maple tree from Pennsylvania forests, that would adversely affect the forest-products industry.
  • Reduction or elimination of trout and smallmouth bass fisheries in Pennsylvania streams due to changes in surface water temperature.

Responses to climate change are generally divided between mitigation of the causes of climate change and adaptation to the effects of climate change. Mitigation can be achieved through reductions in the rate of GHG emissions. This report, and the scope of CentreCCAP, is designed to facilitate mitigation at the regional scale.

Global and national policy changes to implement climate change mitigation will require serious actions by people in all regions of the world to reduce their GHG emissions. However, there is substantial local variation within countries, states, and regions in the amounts, types, and sources of GHG emissions. Thus, policies to reduce emissions will need to be tailored to the context of specific places(Easterling et al. 1998). CentreCCAP aims to encourage locally relevant policy changes and personal actions that work best for people in the Centre Region and are substantial contributors to climate change mitigation.

1.05The Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory

Compiling a GHG emissions inventory is the first step in the development of a local climate change action plan. An emissions inventory is a thorough record of a place’s GHG emissions for a certain period of time. It is designed to reveal the distribution of emissions sources for a particular place. Local residents, policymakers, and other stakeholders can then use the information from a GHG emissions inventory to understand the makeup of local emissions, create plans for emissions reduction, and track the progress of emissions reduction strategies.

The EPA recommends that inventories track the four major gases that human activity contributes to the atmosphere: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and fluorinated gases. Many local and regional inventories omit fluorinated gases from their accounting due to constraints on local data available regarding their emissions. This inventory follows the same methodology, recording only the three highest-volume GHGs: carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Carbon dioxide is the GHG that contributes the most to global warming. Over six billion tons of carbon dioxide are released every year by human activities (IPCC 2007a). For comparison, standard accounting of GHG emissions records all emissions in a standard unit of measure: metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent(MTCO2e). For gases other than carbon dioxide, MTCO2e refers to the amount of total emissions (in metric tons) multiplied by the global warming potential (GWP) of the gas. They refer to the amount of carbon dioxide emissions by weight that would produce the same contribution to global warming as a given weight of another GHG. For example, methane is 21 times more powerful than carbon dioxide in contributing to global warming, and nitrous oxide is 310 times as powerful(EPA 2009). Thus, the smaller amounts of these emissions still have a measurable contribution to global warming.

All emissions inventories, whether at the national, regional, or local scale, share the same techniques. Rather than measuring GHG emissions using satellites or active monitoring, inventories measure emissions by compiling information about activities that are known to produce or reduce GHG emissions and multiplying data about these activities by known amounts of GHGs that are generated or sequestered by each activity. These known amounts are called emissions coefficients. Emissions coefficients are obtained from national and international agencies, namely the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Emissions coefficients are the amounts of a GHG that are emitted per each unit of activity. For example, the carbon dioxide emissions coefficient for one barrel of home heating oil is 0.4224. This means that using one barrel of home heating oil contributes 0.4224 metric tons of carbon dioxide (MTCO2e) to the atmosphere.

An important consideration for GHG inventories at the regional scale is how to define the scope of activities that generate emissions. GHG emissions are generally divided between direct and indirect emissions. Direct emissions are those that are generated from a source controlled by a person or organization. Indirect emissions are those that result from the activity of a person or organization, but are produced at a source apart from the person or organization. An example of direct emissions is gasoline used in personal vehicles; an example of indirect emissions is electricity consumption from an electric utility. Electricity consumptionoccurs at points far away from where the electricity is generated. Emissions could then be attributed to either the location of the power plant or the location of the electricity consumer. Thus, there are two possible approaches to attributing these emissions. A supply-based approach would attribute all emissions from the power plant to the location of the power plant, while an end-use approach would attribute emissions from the power plant to the end-users of its electricity. The difference between these two approaches presents challenges when compiling emissions inventories within regions, because regions may have multiple resource, commodity, and energy inputs and outputs that would lead to drastically different measurements of emissions from the supply-based or end-use approaches.

The analysis presented in this report is primarily a consumption-based, end-use approach to measuring GHG emissions. The end-use approach considers both direct and indirect emissions occurring within a geographic area. It attributes emissions to parties whose actions lead to the emissions being generated. In other words, people who are responsible for the actions leading to emissions are recorded as generating those emissions. The distinction between direct and indirect emissions is commonly subdivided into three distinct categories: Scope 1, Scope 2, and Scope 3. Scope 1 emissions result from direct consumption of fuels on-site. Scope 2 emissions are indirect emissions that result from consumed electricity that is generated in off-site locations. Scope 3 encompasses all other indirect emissions.