Cancer Mortality Projections
2000–2004 update
Public Health Intelligence
Occasional Bulletin No 49
Ministry of Health. 2008. Cancer Mortality Projections 2000–2004 update. Public Health Intelligence Occasional Bulletin No 49. Wellington: Ministry of Health.
Published in June 2008 by the
Ministry of Health
PO Box 5013, Wellington, New Zealand
ISBN 978-0-478-31770-1 (online)
HP 4596
This document is available on the Ministry of Health’s website:
http://www.moh.govt.nz
Authorship and Acknowledgements
The modelling was done and the report written by Robert Templeton and Martin Tobias (Public Health Intelligence, Health and Disability System Strategy Directorate). The authors would like to acknowledge constructive input from the peer reviewers: John Childs and Barry Borman.
Disclaimer
Opinions expressed are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect Ministry of Health policy advice. The Ministry of Health accepts no liability for decisions or actions based on the contents of this report.
Cancer Mortality Projections: 2000–2004 update1
Cancer Mortality Projections: 2000–2004 update1
Contents
Authorship and Acknowledgements
Executive Summary
Introduction
Background
Method
Reporting
Updated Projections
References
List of Figures
Figure 1:All adult cancer
Figure 2:Childhood cancer
Figure 3:Bladder cancer
Figure 4:Bone and connective tissue cancer
Figure 5:Brain cancer
Figure 6:Colorectal cancer
Figure 7:Gallbladder cancer
Figure 8:Hodgkin’s disease
Figure 9:Kidney cancer
Figure 10:Laryngeal cancer
Figure 11:Leukaemia
Figure 12:Lip, mouth and pharynx cancer
Figure 13:Liver cancer
Figure 14:Lung cancer
Figure 15:Melanoma
Figure 16:Myeloma
Figure 17:Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma
Figure 18:Oesophageal cancer
Figure 19:Pancreatic cancer
Figure 20:Stomach cancer
Figure 21:Thyroid cancer
Figure 22:Male cancers
Figure 23:Female cancers I
Figure 24:Female cancers II
Figure 25:Cancer of all other sites
List of Tables
Table 1:Projected percentage change, by site and sex, 2000–04 to 2010–14
Table 2:Cancer sites for which ‘major’ change in mortality is projected from 2000–04 to
2010–14
Table 3:Key mortality projection results for selected sites, 2000–2004 to 2010–14
Executive Summary
This report updates the cancer mortality projections produced by Public Health Intelligence in 2001 (Ministry of Health 2002), using newly available data for the
2000–2004 period. The projection method has not been changed.
Cancer incidence projections have already been updated (Ministry of Health 2007). For a more complete view of the projected burden of cancer, both reports should be consulted.
Overall, the risk of dying from cancer is projected to decline over the decade, by about 15%. Nevertheless, the burden of cancer mortality will still increase, by about 12%, as a result of demographic trends (increasing size and older age structure of the New Zealand population).
This projected decline in the risk of dying from cancer represents one of the greatest achievements of the New Zealand health system. Mortality rates are projected to fall for almost all major and many minor cancers in most age groups for both sexes. This includes colorectal cancer (both sexes), lung cancer (males only), melanoma (females only), and both cervical and breast cancer. Prostate cancer mortality rates are projected to stabilise, then begin to decline slowly. Some of this improvement reflects incidence reduction (for example, through screening and lifestyle change, in particular declining tobacco use). But much of the forecast improvement results from case fatality reduction (improvements in survival from earlier and more effective medical and surgical treatment of cancer).
Cancer Mortality Projections: 2000–2004 update1
Introduction
Background
Projections of cancer incidence and mortality are useful for making investment decisions in cancer treatment facilities and in planning for the oncology workforce, and can also contribute to the formulation and evaluation of cancer control policy (Black and Stockton 2001; McDermid 2005; Moller et al 2002).
In 2001 Public Health Intelligence prepared incidence and mortality projections for 26types of cancer, forecasting from 1994–98 or 1995–99 (as the most recent five-year period for which cancer registration or mortality data were then available) out to
2009–13 or 2010–14 respectively (Ministry of Health 2002). This work was undertaken on behalf of the Cancer Control Taskforce to inform the development of the Cancer Control Strategy (Ministry of Health 2003).
A further five years’ registration data became available in 2007 (covering 1999–2003), allowing the incidence projections to be updated (Ministry of Health 2007). A further five years’ mortality data has now also become available (covering 2000–04), allowing the mortality projections to be updated. Both the updated incidence and mortality projections should be used in tandem, to obtain the full picture of the projected cancer burden. For example, the updated projections are being used for modelling future capacity requirements for oncology services (John Childs, personal communication).
Method
In updating the projections we have been careful to avoid ‘method drift’, so as to ensure comparability with our earlier projections. We have, however, incorporated revisions made by the New Zealand Health Information Service to the mortality data for some cancers, and have used updated population projections (based on the 2001 rather than the 1996 Census) provided by Statistics New Zealand. Impacts of these changes on comparability are small.
We have not extended the new projections out beyond 2010–14, as our earlier experience revealed that a projection horizon of more than 10 years yields estimates that are too uncertain to be useful for planning.
For technical information relating to the cancer mortality and population data, the selection of cancer sites, and the age/period/cohort modelling methodology used for the projections, please see our earlier report (Ministry of Health 2002).
Reporting
The focus of this report is, appropriately, the updated projections. These are presented in summarised form in the body of the report (in alphabetical order, except for some sex-specific cancers and ‘all other sites’). Full results are available from the authors.
We have also compared the updated projections with the original projections. Little change was found (data not shown – full results are available from the authors).
Finally, we have compared the original projections for the 2000–04 period to the observed data that are now available for this period. Again, little discordance was found (data not shown – full results are available from the authors).
Updated Projections
Updated projections by cancer site (largely in alphabetical order) are provided in Figures 1–25 and their associated tables. Key results are summarised in three tables below.
Table 1:Projected percentage change, by site and sex, 2000–04 to 2010–14
Site / Male (%) / Female (%)ASR* / Total count / ASR* / Total count
All adult / -16 / 15 / -15 / 9
Childhood / -23 / -22 / -23 / -22
Bladder / -20 / 13 / -13 / 10
Bone and connective / ** / ** / ** / **
Brain / -2 / 24 / -7 / 16
Breast / -12 / 9
Cervix / -43 / -29
Colorectal / -24 / 6 / -22 / 3
Gallbladder / -43 / -23 / -37 / -20
Hodgkin’s / -33 / -16 / -37 / -27
Kidney / -5 / 27 / -4 / 22
Larynx / -36 / -11 / -36 / -18
Leukaemia / -14 / 16 / -18 / 6
Lip, mouth / -11 / 18 / -13 / 12
Liver / 19 / 56 / 15 / 48
Lung / -25 / 1 / 3 / 34
Melanoma / 1 / 38 / -8 / 17
Myeloma / -4 / 32 / -8 / 19
NHL / -8 / 24 / -11 / 14
Oesophagus / -7 / 23 / -15 / 7
Ovary / -23 / -1
Endometrium / -5 / 21
Pancreas / -20 / 9 / -11 / 14
Prostate / -3 / 39
Testis / -54 / -48
Stomach / -15 / 13 / -16 / 4
Thyroid / -12 / 16 / -22 / -1
All other / 2 / 41 / 3 / 31
Note: Percentage change estimated from fitted (smoothed) estimates, not empirical estimates, for
2000–04.
*ASR = age standardised rate per 100,000 (directly standardised to the WHO World Population).
**Estimates unstable because of small numbers.
Table 1 shows that the overall risk of dying from cancer is projected to reduce slowly in both sexes, decreasing by approximately 15% over the decade. At the same time the burden (count) is projected to increase by about 15% in males and 9% in females, reflecting the offsetting effect of demographic trends (the expected increase in size and structural ageing of the New Zealand population).
Cancer sites projected to show ‘major’ changes in mortality risk or burden over the next decade are summarised in Table 2 below.
Table 2:Cancer sites for which ‘major’ change in mortality is projected from 2000–04 to 2010–14
Male / Female>5% increase in risk* / Liver / Liver
>30% increase in burden** / Liver
Melanoma
Myeloma
Prostate / Liver
Lung
>20% decrease in risk* / Bladder
Colorectal
Gallbladder
Hodgkins
Larynx
Lung
Pancreas
Testis / Cervix
Colorectal
Gallbladder
Hodgkins
Larynx
Ovary
Thyroid
>10% decrease in burden** / Gallbladder
Hodgkins
Larynx
Testis / Cervix
Gallbladder
Hodgkins
Larynx
Note: Childhood cancer and adult cancer in ‘all other sites’ are excluded from this table.
*Risk = age standardised rate.
**Burden = total count.
Table 3 below summarises the key mortality projection results for the major cancer sites and those of special policy interest, by site.
Table 3:Key mortality projection results for selected sites, 2000–2004 to 2010–14
Selected site / CommentColorectal / Rates projected to decline in all age by sex groups except 75+ males, falling overall by almost one quarter. This occurs without screening.
Burden remains essentially stable, because of offsetting demographic effects.
Lung / Rates continue their long-term decline in males (all ages), falling by one quarter over the decade. As a result, overall burden remains stable.
Trends in mortality rates vary by age group among females, but the overall outcome is stability. However, female and male rates do not crossover by the projection horizon.
Given stable rates, burden must increase for females – an increase of one third is projected over the decade.
Melanoma / Trends in rates are projected to vary by age among males, such that the overall rate remains stable and the total burden increases by one third.
Female rates are projected to decline in all age groups except the oldest, so the overall rate falls slightly. The burden increases by about one fifth overall.
Breast / Rates are projected to fall among women older than 45 years, with the result that the overall rate falls by 12%. This is the result of the screening programme, at least in part.
Total burden nevertheless increases by about 10%, reflecting the impact of demographic trends.
Cervix / Both rates and counts are projected to continue to fall sharply, although exact estimates are imprecise because of relatively small numbers.
This is largely due to the ongoing effect of the screening programme (there has been little recent improvement in the treatment of invasive cervical cancer).
The projections do not include any possible additional effect from immunisation against HPV (which would in any case be small over the short to medium term).
Prostate / Rates are projected to be essentially stable or very slowly declining, so burden is expected to increase by almost 40%.
The steep increase in burden reflects the impact of population ageing in particular.
Interpreting Figures 1–25 and associated tables
Except for sex-specific sites, projections for males are shown on the left and females on the right.
The upper charts show empirical data points and fitted and projected models for mortality rates by age group. (All rates are per 100,000.)
The lower charts show empirical data points and the fitted and projected models for age standardised mortality rates (standardised by the direct method to the World Health Organization [WHO] World Standard Population).
The (solid) red line is the updated projection.
The dotted lines show the highest and lowest rates obtained for the individual models that were averaged to obtain the final updated projection (the red line) for each cancer site.
The purple coloured space shows the 90% Bayesian credible interval, used to represent the ‘prediction interval’ or uncertainty around the updated projection (ie, uncertainty around the red line).
The tables below the charts show rates (upper tables) and counts (lower tables) by age group, for 2000–04 (“2002”, most recent data available) and for 2010–14 (“2012”, the projection horizon), and the percentage change between these two dates (ie, over the next decade).
For each statistic, the point estimate is shown along with the 90% Bayesian credible interval (in brackets).
Note that the 2000–04 estimates shown are notthe empirical (observed) data for these years, but rather the estimate for this period obtained from the fitted model. This approach is taken to reduce the stochastic noise inherent in the observed data. As a consequence, the percentage change shown in the table will be slightly different from that obtained by simply comparing the observed data for 2000–2004 with the projection for 2010–14.
Figure 1:All adult cancer
All adult sites / Male / FemaleAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 15–24 / 6 / 5
(4, 5) / -14
(-35, -13) / 15–24 / 4 / 4
(3, 4) / -17
(-37, -14)
25–44 / 22 / 19
(15, 20) / -15
(-30, -12) / 25–44 / 31 / 25
(21, 28) / -20
(-31, -12)
45–64 / 221 / 185
(166, 209) / -16
(-24, -5) / 45–64 / 215 / 178
(161, 207) / -17
(-24, -6)
65–74 / 1003 / 795
(722, 915) / -21
(-28, -9) / 65–74 / 658 / 549
(486, 629) / -17
(-26, -10)
75+ / 2160 / 2022
(1810, 2261) / -6
(-16, 4) / 75+ / 1251 / 1201
(1041, 1335) / -4
(-17, 4)
Total / 229 / 192
(175, 213) / -16
(-23, -7) / Total / 165 / 140
(126, 157) / -15
(-23, -6)
Counts / 15–24 / 18 / 18
(12, 17) / -1
(-25, 0) / 15–24 / 12 / 11
(8, 12) / -8
(-30, 0)
25–44 / 125 / 106
(85, 110) / -15
(-30, -11) / 25–44 / 186 / 149
(128, 169) / -20
(-30, -12)
45–64 / 969 / 1013
(911, 1146) / 5
(-5, 18) / 45–64 / 963 / 1028
(932, 1194) / 7
(-3, 18)
65–74 / 1230 / 1314
(1193, 1511) / 7
(-3, 22) / 65–74 / 867 / 970
(857, 1111) / 12
(-1, 22)
75+ / 1797 / 2307
(2065, 2580) / 28
(15, 43) / 75+ / 1635 / 1855
(1607, 2062) / 13
(-2, 44)
Total / 4138 / 4757
(4329, 5286) / 15
(5, 27) / Total / 3665 / 4013
(3585, 4482) / 9
(-2, 28)
Figure 2:Childhood cancer
Child cancer / Male / FemaleAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 0–4 / 4 / 3
(2, 5) / -24
(-47, 17) / 0–4 / 3 / 2
(2, 4) / -24
(-46, 18)
5–9 / 4 / 3
(2, 4) / -19
(-46, 17) / 5–9 / 3 / 2
(2, 3) / -17
(-47, 16)
10–14 / 4 / 3
(2, 4) / -27
(-50, 7) / 10–14 / 3 / 3
(1, 3) / -27
(-53, 8)
Total / 4 / 3
(2, 4) / -23
(-42, 3) / Total / 3 / 2
(2, 3) / -23
(-43, 4)
Counts / 0–4 / 6 / 5
(3, 8) / -18
(-42, 27) / 0–4 / 4 / 3
(2, 6) / -18
(-41, 28)
5–9 / 6 / 5
(3, 7) / -19
(-46, 17) / 5–9 / 4 / 3
(2, 5) / -16
(-46, 18)
10–14 / 6 / 4
(3, 6) / -29
(-52, 3) / 10–14 / 5 / 4
(2, 5) / -29
(-55, 4)
Total / 17 / 13
(10, 19) / -22
(-41, 5) / Total / 13 / 10
(7, 14) / -22
(-42, 6)
Figure 3:Bladder cancer
Bladder cancer / Male / FemaleAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -50
(-42, 2) / 25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -15
(-37, 2)
45–64 / 3 / 3
(2, 4) / -21
(-36, 1) / 45–64 / 1 / 1
(1, 2) / -11
(-29, 0)
65–74 / 25 / 18
(15, 24) / -26
(-40, -6) / 65–74 / 7 / 6
(5, 9) / -15
(-33, -6)
75+ / 85 / 76
(61, 90) / -10
(-27, 6) / 75+ / 32 / 30
(22, 36) / -8
(-31, 6)
Total / 6 / 5
(4, 6) / -20
(-32, -6) / Total / 2 / 2
(1, 2) / -13
(-29, -6)
Counts / 25–44 / 1 / 0
(0, 1) / -50
(-42, 2) / 25–44 / 1 / 1
(0, 1) / -14
(-37, 2)
45–64 / 15 / 15
(12, 21) / -2
(-21, 26) / 45–64 / 5 / 6
(5, 9) / 15
(-8, 26)
65–74 / 30 / 31
(25, 39) / 0
(-19, 27) / 65–74 / 10 / 11
(8, 15) / 14
(-10, 26)
75+ / 71 / 87
(70, 103) / 23
(1, 46) / 75+ / 42 / 46
(35, 56) / 9
(-19, 46)
Total / 117 / 132
(111, 158) / 13
(-3, 33) / Total / 58 / 64
(50, 78) / 10
(-12, 32)
Figure 4:Bone and connective tissue cancer
Bone cancer / Male / FemaleAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 15–24 / 1 / 0
(0, 0) / -65
(-94, -36) / 15–24 / 1 / 0
(0, 0) / -55
(-97, -36)
25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -64
(-93, -29) / 25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -58
(-96, -30)
45–64 / 1 / 0
(0, 1) / -71
(-93, -27) / 45–64 / 1 / 0
(0, 0) / -74
(-96, -28)
65–74 / 2 / 0
(0, 2) / -74
(-93, -28) / 65–74 / 1 / 0
(0, 1) / -77
(-96, -28)
75+ / 4 / 1
(0, 4) / -74
(-93, -29) / 75+ / 2 / 0
(0, 1) / -78
(-96, -30)
Total / 1 / 0
(0, 1) / -70
(-93, -33) / Total / 1 / 0
(0, 0) / -67
(-96, -32)
Counts / 15–24 / 2 / 1
(0, 2) / -60
(-93, -27) / 15–24 / 2 / 1
(0, 1) / -49
(-96, -26)
25–44 / 3 / 1
(0, 2) / -64
(-93, -29) / 25–44 / 2 / 1
(0, 1) / -57
(-96, -30)
45–64 / 3 / 1
(0, 3) / -64
(-91, -9) / 45–64 / 2 / 1
(0, 2) / -66
(-95, -8)
65–74 / 2 / 1
(0, 2) / -65
(-91, -4) / 65–74 / 1 / 0
(0, 1) / -69
(-95, -4)
75+ / 4 / 1
(0, 4) / -64
(-91, -3) / 75+ / 3 / 1
(0,2) / -73
(-96,-2)
Total / 14 / 5
(1, 13) / -64
(-91, -15) / Total / 10 / 3
(0,7) / -65
(-95,-14)
Figure 5:Brain cancer
Brain cancer / Male / FemaleAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 15–24 / 1 / 1
(1, 1) / 14
(-23, 28) / 15–24 / 1 / 1
(0, 1) / 16
(-38, 28)
25–44 / 3 / 3
(2, 3) / 3
(-27, 9) / 25–44 / 2 / 2
(1, 2) / -13
(-31, 10)
45–64 / 12 / 11
(9, 13) / -6
(-23, 11) / 45–64 / 7 / 6
(5, 8) / -8
(-22, 12)
65–74 / 25 / 25
(20, 31) / -2
(-21, 20) / 65–74 / 15 / 14
(11, 18) / -9
(-27, 20)
75+ / 28 / 29
(22, 34) / 2
(-17, 23) / 75+ / 18 / 18
(13, 21) / 1
(-24, 22)
Total / 7 / 7
(6, 8) / -2
(-18, 9) / Total / 5 / 4
(3, 5) / -7
(-21, 10)
Counts / 15–24 / 3 / 5
(2, 5) / 31
(-11, 47) / 15–24 / 2 / 3
(1, 3) / 30
(-30, 46)
25–44 / 15 / 16
(11, 17) / 3
(-27, 9) / 25–44 / 11 / 10
(7, 12) / -12
(-31, 10)
45–64 / 52 / 61
(49, 73) / 17
(-3, 39) / 45–64 / 30 / 36
(30, 47) / 19
(0, 40)
65–74 / 31 / 41
(33, 51) / 32
(6, 62) / 65–74 / 20 / 25
(19, 32) / 21
(-3, 62)
75+ / 23 / 33
(25, 39) / 41
(14, 68) / 75+ / 23 / 28
(20, 32) / 20
(-10, 68)
Total / 125 / 156
(127, 176) / 24
(5, 40) / Total / 87 / 101
(84, 119) / 16
(-1, 40)
Figure 6:Colorectal cancer
Colorectal cancer / Male / FemaleAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 25–44 / 2 / 1
(1, 2) / -35
(-49, -13) / 25–44 / 2 / 1
(1, 2) / -32
(-43, -12)
45–64 / 32 / 18
(15, 22) / -42
(-51, -31) / 45–64 / 26 / 16
(13, 19) / -38
(-49, -32)
65–74 / 159 / 110
(91, 129) / -30
(-41, -17) / 65–74 / 104 / 80
(65, 93) / -23
(-37, -16)
75+ / 288 / 289
(240, 336) / 0
(-15, 18) / 75+ / 221 / 212
(183, 252) / -4
(-18, 18)
Total / 32 / 24
(21, 28) / -24
(-34, -12) / Total / 24 / 18
(16, 21) / -22
(-33, -12)
Counts / 25–44 / 10 / 7
(5, 9) / -34
(-49, -13) / 25–44 / 11 / 8
(6, 13) / -32
(-43, -12)
45–64 / 139 / 100
(84, 121) / -28
(-39, -14) / 45–64 / 118 / 95
(76, 108) / -20
(-34, -14)
65–74 / 194 / 182
(150, 213) / -6
(-21, 12) / 65–74 / 138 / 142
(115, 163) / 3
(-15, 12)
75+ / 240 / 330
(273, 384) / 38
(16, 62) / 75+ / 289 / 327
(282, 389) / 13
(-3, 62)
Total / 584 / 619
(523, 711) / 6
(-9, 22) / Total / 556 / 572
(491, 656) / 3
(-11, 22)
Figure 7:Gallbladder cancer
Gallbladder cancer / Male / FemaleAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -41
(-56, -14) / 25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -35
(-51, -14)
45–64 / 1 / 1
(0, 1) / -43
(-51, -12) / 45–64 / 1 / 1
(1, 1) / -34
(-45, -12)
65–74 / 4 / 2
(2, 3) / -45
(-52, -9) / 65–74 / 5 / 3
(2, 5) / -41
(-51, -10)
75+ / 7 / 5
(4, 8) / -39
(-45, -3) / 75+ / 11 / 7
(6, 10) / -33
(-44, -4)
Total / 1 / 0
(0, 1) / -43
(-46, -17) / Total / 1 / 1
(1, 1) / -37
(-45, -16)
Counts / 25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -41
(-56, -14) / 25–44 / 1 / 0
(0, 1) / -35
(-51, -14)
45–64 / 4 / 3
(2, 5) / -29
(-38, 10) / 45–64 / 5 / 4
(3, 7) / -15
(-30, 10)
65–74 / 4 / 3
(3, 6) / -26
(-36, 22) / 65–74 / 7 / 5
(4, 8) / -20
(-35, 22)
75+ / 6 / 5
(5, 9) / -16
(-24, 33) / 75+ / 14 / 11
(9, 16) / -21
(-34, 32)
Total / 15 / 12
(11, 19) / -23
(-27, 13) / Total / 27 / 21
(18, 29) / -20
(-30, 14)
Figure 8:Hodgkin’s disease
Hodgkin’s disease / Male / FemaleAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 15–24 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -16
(-64, -14) / 15–24 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -29
(-59, -14)
25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -37
(-60, -22) / 25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -25
(-56, -22)
45–64 / 1 / 0
(0, 0) / -29
(-57, -19) / 45–64 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -35
(-55, -18)
65–74 / 1 / 1
(0, 1) / -37
(-62, -17) / 65–74 / 1 / 0
(0, 1) / -44
(-62, -18)
75+ / 2 / 2
(1, 2) / -34
(-61, -20) / 75+ / 1 / 1
(0, 1) / -47
(-58, -20)
Total / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -33
(-55, -29) / Total / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -37
(-54, -30)
Counts / 15–24 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -3
(-59, -1) / 15–24 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -20
(-55, 0)
25–44 / 1 / 1
(0, 1) / -37
(-60, -21) / 25–44 / 1 / 1
(0, 1) / -24
(-56, -22)
45–64 / 2 / 2
(1, 3) / -11
(-46, 2) / 45–64 / 1 / 1
(1, 1) / -17
(-42, 2)
65–74 / 2 / 1
(1, 2) / -15
(-49, 12) / 65–74 / 1 / 1
(1, 1) / -25
(-49, 12)
75+ / 2 / 2
(1, 2) / -10
(-46, 9) / 75+ / 2 / 1
(1, 2) / -38
(-51, 10)
Total / 8 / 6
(4, 8) / -16
(-43, -10) / Total / 5 / 4
(3, 5) / -27
(-44, -10)
Figure 9:Kidney cancer
Renal cancer / Male / FemaleAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 25–44 / 1 / 1
(0, 1) / -13
(-31, 10) / 25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 1) / -17
(-29, 10)
45–64 / 7 / 7
(5, 9) / 0
(-20, 18) / 45–64 / 3 / 3
(2, 4) / 2
(-22, 18)
65–74 / 24 / 22
(17, 26) / -10
(-28, 12) / 65–74 / 12 / 11
(9, 15) / -7
(-25, 12)
75+ / 41 / 41
(32, 48) / 1
(-22, 14) / 75+ / 20 / 20
(16, 26) / 0
(-15, 14)
Total / 6 / 5
(4, 6) / -5
(-21, 7) / Total / 3 / 3
(2, 3) / -4
(-17, 8)
Counts / 25–44 / 4 / 4
(3, 5) / -12
(-31, 10) / 25–44 / 2 / 2
(1, 3) / -17
(-29, 10)
45–64 / 31 / 39
(30, 47) / 25
(0, 47) / 45–64 / 15 / 19
(14, 24) / 31
(0, 48)
65–74 / 29 / 36
(28, 43) / 22
(-3, 51) / 65–74 / 16 / 20
(16, 27) / 25
(0, 50)
75+ / 34 / 47
(37, 55) / 38
(7, 57) / 75+ / 26 / 31
(25, 41) / 18
(0, 56)
Total / 99 / 125
(101, 144) / 27
(6, 43) / Total / 60 / 72
(60, 91) / 22
(5, 44)
Figure 10:Laryngeal cancer
Laryngeal cancer / Male / FemaleAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -46
(-69, -8) / 25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -17
(-66, -8)
45–64 / 1 / 1
(0, 1) / -45
(-60, -10) / 45–64 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -30
(-60, -10)
65–74 / 7 / 4
(3, 6) / -43
(-62, -21) / 65–74 / 1 / 0
(0, 1) / -47
(-61, -22)
75+ / 13 / 11
(8, 14) / -20
(-42, 5) / 75+ / 2 / 1
(1, 2) / -28
(-45, 4)
Total / 1 / 1
(1, 1) / -36
(-49, -19) / Total / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -36
(-49, -18)
Counts / 25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -46
(-69, -8) / 25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -17
(-65, -8)
45–64 / 6 / 4
(3, 8) / -32
(-50, 12) / 45–64 / 1 / 1
(0, 2) / -10
(-49, 12)
65–74 / 9 / 7
(5, 10) / -23
(-49, 6) / 65–74 / 1 / 1
(1, 2) / -29
(-48, 6)
75+ / 11 / 12
(9, 16) / 10
(-21, 44) / 75+ / 2 / 2
(1, 3) / -15
(-35, 44)
Total / 26 / 23
(18, 31) / -11
(-29, 12) / Total / 4 / 3
(2, 6) / -18
(-33, 12)
Figure 11:Leukaemia
Leukaemia (adult) / Male / FemaleAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 15–24 / 2 / 1
(1, 1) / -18
(-46, -6) / 15–24 / 1 / 0
(0, 1) / -37
(-43, -6)
25–44 / 2 / 2
(1, 2) / -10
(-30, 6) / 25–44 / 1 / 1
(1, 1) / -35
(-37, 6)
45–64 / 7 / 5
(5, 7) / -24
(-33, 2) / 45–64 / 5 / 4
(3, 5) / -19
(-31, 2)
65–74 / 31 / 27
(20, 32) / -13
(-36, 4) / 65–74 / 19 / 15
(12, 19) / -23
(-36, 4)
75+ / 74 / 71
(56, 86) / -4
(-22, 18) / 75+ / 42 / 40
(33, 50) / -4
(-20, 18)
Total / 8 / 7
(6, 8) / -14
(-27, -1) / Total / 5 / 4
(4, 5) / -18
(-26, 0)
Counts / 15–24 / 5 / 4
(3, 5) / -6
(-38, 8) / 15–24 / 2 / 1
(1, 3) / -29
(-36, 8)
25–44 / 10 / 9
(6, 10) / -10
(-30, 6) / 25–44 / 8 / 5
(5, 8) / -35
(-37, 6)
45–64 / 30 / 29
(25, 40) / -5
(-16, 27) / 45–64 / 22 / 23
(19, 30) / 5
(-11, 28)
65–74 / 38 / 44
(33, 53) / 17
(-14, 39) / 65–74 / 25 / 26
(21, 33) / 3
(-14, 40)
75+ / 61 / 81
(64, 98) / 31
(7, 62) / 75+ / 54 / 62
(51, 78) / 14
(-5, 62)
Total / 144 / 167
(139, 197) / 16
(-1, 35) / Total / 111 / 117
(102, 145) / 6
(-6, 36)
Figure 12:Lip, mouth and pharynx cancer
Lip, mouth and pharynx cancer / Male / FemaleAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 25–44 / 1 / 1
(0, 1) / -7
(-34, 16) / 25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -12
(-32, 16)
45–64 / 7 / 7
(5, 9) / -8
(-26, 19) / 45–64 / 2 / 1
(1, 2) / -13
(-28, 20)
65–74 / 21 / 18
(13, 23) / -14
(-35, 11) / 65–74 / 6 / 5
(4, 7) / -17
(-36, 12)
75+ / 25 / 24
(18, 30) / -6
(-28, 17) / 75+ / 15 / 15
(11, 19) / -4
(-27, 16)
Total / 5 / 4
(3, 5) / -11
(-26, 8) / Total / 2 / 1
(1, 2) / -13
(-26, 8)
Counts / 25–44 / 4 / 4
(2, 5) / -6
(-33, 16) / 25–44 / 2 / 1
(1, 2) / -12
(-32, 16)
45–64 / 31 / 36
(29, 48) / 16
(-7, 49) / 45–64 / 7 / 8
(6, 11) / 12
(-8, 50)
65–74 / 25 / 29
(22, 38) / 15
(-12, 50) / 65–74 / 8 / 9
(7, 12) / 12
(-14, 50)
75+ / 21 / 27
(20, 34) / 29
(-2, 60) / 75+ / 20 / 23
(17, 29) / 13
(-14, 60)
Total / 82 / 96
(78, 119) / 18
(-3, 42) / Total / 36 / 41
(33, 52) / 12
(-8, 42)
Figure 13:Liver cancer
Liver cancer / Male / FemaleAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 25–44 / 1 / 1
(1, 2) / 4
(-15, 40) / 25–44 / 0 / 1
(0, 1) / 36
(-24, 40)
45–64 / 8 / 10
(8, 12) / 20
(-3, 47) / 45–64 / 3 / 3
(2, 3) / 7
(-23, 48)
65–74 / 22 / 26
(20, 32) / 19
(-7, 49) / 65–74 / 9 / 10
(6, 11) / 12
(-23, 48)
75+ / 30 / 38
(30, 47) / 28
(-1, 50) / 75+ / 17 / 22
(16, 27) / 30
(-5, 50)
Total / 5 / 6
(5, 8) / 19
(1, 38) / Total / 2 / 2
(2, 3) / 15
(-13, 38)
Counts / 25–44 / 7 / 7
(6, 11) / 4
(-15, 40) / 25–44 / 3 / 3
(2, 4) / 37
(-24, 40)
45–64 / 36 / 54
(43, 68) / 50
(22, 84) / 45–64 / 12 / 17
(11, 19) / 38
(-1, 84)
65–74 / 27 / 43
(33, 53) / 61
(26, 100) / 65–74 / 11 / 17
(11, 20) / 50
(3, 100)
75+ / 25 / 43
(34, 54) / 75
(36, 106) / 75+ / 22 / 34
(25, 42) / 54
(13, 106)
Total / 95 / 149
(123, 177) / 56
(32, 82) / Total / 48 / 71
(52, 80) / 48
(12, 82)
Figure 14:Lung cancer
Lung cancer / Male / FemaleAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 25–44 / 2 / 1
(1, 2) / -43
(-48, -9) / 25–44 / 3 / 3
(2, 4) / 7
(-16, -8)
45–64 / 49 / 38
(30, 43) / -22
(-37, -11) / 45–64 / 40 / 39
(35, 49) / -2
(-13, -12)
65–74 / 249 / 167
(137, 191) / -33
(-45, -24) / 65–74 / 142 / 145
(121, 171) / 2
(-13, -24)
75+ / 408 / 343
(277, 383) / -16
(-32, -6) / 75+ / 169 / 202
(164, 226) / 19
(-3, -6)
Total / 48 / 36
(30, 40) / -25
(-38, -17) / Total / 28 / 29
(26, 34) / 3
(-10, -18)
Counts / 25–44 / 11 / 6
(5, 10) / -43
(-48, -9) / 25–44 / 15 / 16
(12, 22) / 7
(-16, -8)
45–64 / 215 / 210
(166, 236) / -2
(-21, 11) / 45–64 / 178 / 225
(200, 281) / 26
(12, 10)
65–74 / 305 / 275
(226, 316) / -10
(-26, 3) / 65–74 / 187 / 255
(214, 302) / 36
(16, 4)
75+ / 340 / 391
(316, 437) / 15
(-6, 28) / 75+ / 221 / 311
(253, 349) / 41
(15, 28)
Total / 869 / 882
(730, 977) / 1
(-15, 12) / Total / 602 / 808
(699, 924) / 34
(17, 12)
Figure 15:Melanoma
Melanoma / Male / FemaleAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 15–24 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -55
(-65, -5) / 15–24 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -9
(-43, -4)
25–44 / 2 / 2
(1, 2) / -32
(-49, -13) / 25–44 / 2 / 1
(1, 2) / -17
(-35, -12)
45–64 / 12 / 11
(9, 13) / -8
(-24, 10) / 45–64 / 6 / 5
(4, 7) / -16
(-30, 10)
65–74 / 32 / 34
(26, 41) / 6
(-19, 25) / 65–74 / 14 / 14
(11, 17) / 1
(-22, 24)
75+ / 63 / 80
(64, 96) / 29
(5, 54) / 75+ / 30 / 32
(26, 40) / 6
(-10, 54)
Total / 9 / 9
(7, 10) / 1
(-14, 15) / Total / 5 / 4
(4, 5) / -8
(-20, 14)
Counts / 15–24 / 1 / 0
(0, 1) / -49
(-60, 9) / 15–24 / 1 / 1
(0, 1) / 2
(-36, 10)
25–44 / 14 / 9
(6, 12) / -32
(-49, -13) / 25–44 / 10 / 9
(6, 12) / -16
(-35, -12)
45–64 / 51 / 59
(48, 72) / 16
(-5, 38) / 45–64 / 28 / 30
(25, 38) / 9
(-9, 38)
65–74 / 40 / 56
(44, 67) / 42
(10, 68) / 65–74 / 18 / 25
(19, 31) / 35
(4, 68)
75+ / 52 / 92
(73, 110) / 76
(44, 111) / 75+ / 39 / 49
(41, 62) / 25
(7, 112)
Total / 157 / 217
(180, 251) / 38
(17, 57) / Total / 96 / 113
(97, 136) / 17
(3, 58)
Figure 16:Myeloma
Myeloma / Male / FemaleAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -11
(-37, 16) / 25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / 85
(-38, 16)
45–64 / 4 / 4
(3, 5) / -11
(-25, 19) / 45–64 / 3 / 2
(2, 4) / -21
(-28, 18)
65–74 / 18 / 18
(14, 23) / 2
(-19, 29) / 65–74 / 13 / 12
(10, 17) / -7
(-26, 28)
75+ / 46 / 48
(39, 60) / 3
(-14, 27) / 75+ / 28 / 29
(23, 36) / 2
(-17, 28)
Total / 4 / 4
(4, 5) / -4
(-17, 16) / Total / 3 / 3
(2, 3) / -8
(-19, 16)
Counts / 25–44 / 2 / 2
(1, 2) / -11
(-37, 16) / 25–44 / 1 / 1
(0, 1) / 86
(-38, 16)
45–64 / 18 / 21
(16, 29) / 11
(-7, 49) / 45–64 / 12 / 12
(11, 21) / 2
(-8, 48)
65–74 / 22 / 30
(24, 38) / 38
(9, 73) / 65–74 / 17 / 21
(17, 29) / 24
(0, 74)
75+ / 38 / 54
(45, 69) / 42
(18, 74) / 75+ / 37 / 44
(35, 56) / 20
(-2, 74)
Total / 81 / 107
(90, 132) / 32
(14, 59) / Total / 67 / 79
(68, 103) / 19
(4, 58)
Figure 17:Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma
Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma / Male / FemaleAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 15–24 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -31
(-60, -11) / 15–24 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -17
(-40, -10)
25–44 / 1 / 1
(1, 1) / -36
(-47, -5) / 25–44 / 1 / 1
(1, 1) / -11
(-30, -6)
45–64 / 9 / 8
(7, 12) / -10
(-21, 30) / 45–64 / 6 / 5
(5, 8) / -17
(-24, 30)
65–74 / 32 / 31
(28, 48) / -5
(-15, 49) / 65–74 / 25 / 22
(19, 32) / -14
(-26, 48)
75+ / 65 / 66
(59, 98) / 1
(-12, 45) / 75+ / 50 / 50
(44, 71) / 1
(-11, 46)
Total / 8 / 7
(7, 11) / -8
(-15, 27) / Total / 6 / 5
(5, 7) / -11
(-17, 26)
Counts / 15–24 / 1 / 1
(0, 1) / -20
(-54, 2) / 15–24 / 1 / 1
(1, 1) / -7
(-33, 2)
25–44 / 8 / 5
(4, 8) / -35
(-47, -5) / 25–44 / 5 / 4
(4, 7) / -11
(-30, -6)
45–64 / 41 / 47
(40, 68) / 13
(-2, 63) / 45–64 / 28 / 30
(27, 46) / 7
(-2, 64)
65–74 / 40 / 51
(45, 80) / 28
(15, 100) / 65–74 / 33 / 38
(33, 57) / 15
(-2, 100)
75+ / 54 / 76
(67, 112) / 39
(21, 99) / 75+ / 66 / 78
(68, 110) / 19
(5, 100)
Total / 144 / 179
(165, 256) / 24
(14, 72) / Total / 133 / 151
(140, 211) / 14
(5, 72)
Figure 18:Oesophageal cancer
Oesophageal cancer / Male / FemaleAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 25–44 / 0 / 1
(0, 1) / 113
(-39, 9) / 25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -37
(-37, 10)
45–64 / 8 / 8
(6, 10) / -3
(-24, 20) / 45–64 / 2 / 2
(1, 3) / -10
(-30, 20)
65–74 / 35 / 29
(25, 40) / -17
(-25, 19) / 65–74 / 12 / 10
(8, 13) / -19
(-31, 20)
75+ / 63 / 59
(49, 76) / -6
(-21, 19) / 75+ / 34 / 31
(26, 40) / -10
(-25, 18)
Total / 7 / 7
(6, 8) / -7
(-21, 11) / Total / 3 / 2
(2, 3) / -15
(-26, 10)
Counts / 25–44 / 3 / 6
(1, 3) / 114
(-39, 10) / 25–44 / 1 / 0
(0, 1) / -37
(-36, 10)
45–64 / 34 / 41
(32, 54) / 21
(-5, 50) / 45–64 / 10 / 11
(8, 16) / 16
(-10, 50)
65–74 / 42 / 47
(41, 65) / 12
(1, 61) / 65–74 / 16 / 17
(14, 23) / 8
(-8, 60)
75+ / 52 / 68
(56, 87) / 29
(9, 63) / 75+ / 45 / 48
(40, 62) / 6
(-11, 62)
Total / 132 / 162
(137, 200) / 23
(7, 50) / Total / 71 / 76
(65, 99) / 7
(-6, 50)
Figure 19:Pancreatic cancer
Pancreatic cancer / Male / FemaleAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 25–44 / 1 / 0
(0, 1) / -34
(-39, -3) / 25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 1) / -37
(-32, -2)
45–64 / 10 / 8
(7, 10) / -18
(-30, 1) / 45–64 / 7 / 6
(5, 8) / -11
(-23, 0)
65–74 / 40 / 32
(27, 40) / -21
(-34, -3) / 65–74 / 31 / 26
(22, 34) / -16
(-26, -4)
75+ / 69 / 59
(51, 73) / -14
(-24, 6) / 75+ / 65 / 64
(53, 76) / -1
(-18, 6)
Total / 9 / 7
(6, 8) / -20
(-28, -5) / Total / 7 / 6
(5, 7) / -11
(-20, -4)
Counts / 25–44 / 4 / 3
(2, 4) / -34
(-39, -3) / 25–44 / 2 / 1
(1, 3) / -37
(-32, -2)
45–64 / 44 / 45
(37, 56) / 3
(-12, 26) / 45–64 / 30 / 34
(29, 46) / 14
(0, 26)
65–74 / 49 / 53
(45, 66) / 7
(-11, 30) / 65–74 / 40 / 46
(39, 59) / 13
(-2, 30)
75+ / 57 / 68
(58, 83) / 19
(4, 45) / 75+ / 85 / 99
(81, 117) / 17
(-4, 46)
Total / 154 / 168
(149, 203) / 9
(-2, 29) / Total / 158 / 181
(158, 218) / 14
(2, 28)
Figure 20:Stomach cancer
Stomach cancer / Male / FemaleAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 25–44 / 2 / 2
(1, 2) / 1
(-30, 9) / 25–44 / 1 / 1
(1, 1) / -12
(-34, 8)
45–64 / 11 / 11
(8, 12) / -7
(-25, 6) / 45–64 / 5 / 4
(4, 5) / -14
(-29, 6)
65–74 / 45 / 36
(30, 43) / -19
(-33, -3) / 65–74 / 18 / 15
(11, 17) / -16
(-34, -4)
75+ / 91 / 76
(59, 84) / -17
(-35, -9) / 75+ / 46 / 39
(31, 45) / -15
(-32, -8)
Total / 10 / 9
(7, 10) / -15
(-29, -7) / Total / 5 / 4
(3, 5) / -16
(-30, -8)
Counts / 25–44 / 8 / 9
(5, 10) / 1
(-30, 9) / 25–44 / 7 / 6
(4, 7) / -12
(-33, 8)
45–64 / 50 / 58
(46, 68) / 17
(-6, 33) / 45–64 / 23 / 26
(20, 31) / 11
(-9, 34)
65–74 / 55 / 59
(49, 71) / 9
(-9, 31) / 65–74 / 23 / 26
(20, 31) / 13
(-12, 30)
75+ / 76 / 86
(67, 96) / 14
(-11, 25) / 75+ / 60 / 60
(48, 70) / 0
(-20, 26)
Total / 189 / 212
(174, 236) / 13
(-6, 23) / Total / 113 / 118
(96, 134) / 4
(-13, 24)
Figure 21:Thyroid cancer
Thyroid cancer / Male / FemaleAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 15–24 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -52
(-45, 28) / 15–24 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -17
(-46, 28)
25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -15
(-43, 17) / 25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -47
(-42, 16)
45–64 / 0 / 0
(0, 1) / -2
(-40, 15) / 45–64 / 1 / 1
(0, 1) / -26
(-39, 14)
65–74 / 1 / 1
(1, 2) / -10
(-42, 24) / 65–74 / 2 / 2
(1, 3) / -14
(-36, 24)
75+ / 3 / 3
(2, 5) / -15
(-31, 33) / 75+ / 5 / 4
(3, 6) / -18
(-37, 32)
Total / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -12
(-33, 9) / Total / 1 / 0
(0, 1) / -22
(-33, 8)
Counts / 15–24 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -45
(-37, 47) / 15–24 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -7
(-39, 48)
25–44 / 1 / 0
(0, 1) / -15
(-43, 17) / 25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 1) / -47
(-42, 18)
45–64 / 2 / 3
(1, 3) / 22
(-25, 43) / 45–64 / 3 / 3
(2, 5) / -4
(-22, 44)
65–74 / 2 / 2
(1, 3) / 22
(-22, 67) / 65–74 / 3 / 3
(2, 5) / 15
(-14, 66)
75+ / 3 / 3
(2, 5) / 17
(-6, 82) / 75+ / 6 / 6
(5, 9) / -3
(-25, 82)
Total / 7 / 8
(6, 12) / 16
(-9, 48) / Total / 13 / 13
(10, 18) / -1
(-16, 48)
Figure 22:Male cancers
Prostate cancer / Testicular cancerAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -9
(-31, 17) / 15–24 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -55
(-61, 16)
45–64 / 10 / 11
(8, 14) / 4
(-18, 30) / 25–44 / 1 / 0
(0, 1) / -55
(-56, 30)
65–74 / 120 / 109
(88, 134) / -9
(-26, 12) / 45–64 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -53
(-53, 12)
75+ / 474 / 503
(410, 604) / 6
(-13, 27) / 65–74 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -53
(-55, 28)
Total / 31 / 30
(25, 36) / -3
(-19, 14) / 75+ / 0 / 0
(0, 1) / -46
(-48, 14)
Total / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -54
(-52, .)
Counts / 25–44 / 1 / 1
(0, 1) / -9
(-31, 17) / 15–24 / 1 / 0
(0, 1) / -48
(-55, 18)
45–64 / 45 / 58
(45, 75) / 29
(3, 62) / 25–44 / 4 / 2
(1, 3) / -55
(-56, 62)
65–74 / 147 / 180
(145, 222) / 23
(-1, 51) / 45–64 / 1 / 1
(1, 2) / -42
(-41, 50)
75+ / 394 / 574
(467, 689) / 46
(19, 75) / 65–74 / 0 / 0
(0, 1) / -36
(-40, 74)
Total / 586 / 813
(674, 965) / 39
(15, 64) / 75+ / 0 / 0
(0, 1) / -26
(-29, 64)
Total / 6 / 3
(3, 6) / -48
(-45)
Figure 23:Female cancers I
Breast cancer / Cervical cancerAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 25–44 / 11 / 11
(8, 13) / -2
(-27, 12) / 25–44 / 2 / 1
(1, 2) / -52
(-60, 12)
45–64 / 54 / 49
(40, 59) / -10
(-26, 6) / 45–64 / 6 / 4
(3, 5) / -41
(-53, 6)
65–74 / 92 / 77
(63, 93) / -16
(-31, 2) / 65–74 / 8 / 5
(4, 8) / -37
(-55, 2)
75+ / 151 / 133
(109, 160) / -12
(-28, 4) / 75+ / 12 / 7
(5, 10) / -40
(-56, 4)
Total / 31 / 27
(23, 32) / -12
(-27, 2) / Total / 3 / 2
(2, 3) / -43
(-54, 2)
Counts / 25–44 / 68 / 67
(48, 77) / -1
(-26, 13) / 25–44 / 12 / 6
(5, 11) / -52
(-60, 12)
45–64 / 244 / 281
(234, 339) / 15
(-4, 37) / 45–64 / 28 / 21
(16, 30) / -24
(-40, 38)
65–74 / 121 / 136
(111, 165) / 12
(-8, 36) / 65–74 / 11 / 9
(7, 14) / -15
(-39, 36)
75+ / 197 / 205
(168, 248) / 4
(-15, 23) / 75+ / 15 / 11
(7, 15) / -29
(-49, 22)
Total / 631 / 690
(574, 811) / 9
(-9, 27) / Total / 66 / 47
(36, 68) / -29
(-43, 26)
Figure 24:Female cancers II
Ovarian cancer / Endometrial cancerAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 15–24 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -25
(-49, -6) / 25–44 / 0 / 0
(0, 0) / -19
(-24, -6)
25–44 / 1 / 1
(1, 1) / -25
(-42, -9) / 45–64 / 5 / 5
(4, 6) / 1
(-24, -8)
45–64 / 13 / 10
(8, 12) / -26
(-35, -7) / 65–74 / 16 / 16
(12, 19) / -2
(-26, -6)
65–74 / 34 / 26
(23, 34) / -23
(-33, -1) / 75+ / 27 / 25
(20, 31) / -6
(-23, -2)
75+ / 48 / 42
(35, 51) / -13
(-26, 5) / Total / 4 / 3
(3, 4) / -5
(-22, 6)
Total / 8 / 6
(6, 8) / -23
(-30, -7)
Counts / 15–24 / 1 / 0
(0, 1) / -16
(-43, 6) / 25–44 / 2 / 2
(1, 3) / -19
(-23, 6)
25–44 / 9 / 6
(5, 8) / -24
(-42, -8) / 45–64 / 23 / 29
(22, 35) / 30
(-2, -8)
45–64 / 59 / 56
(49, 72) / -5
(-16, 20) / 65–74 / 21 / 28
(21, 33) / 31
(-1, 20)
65–74 / 45 / 46
(41, 60) / 3
(-11, 33) / 75+ / 35 / 39
(31, 47) / 11
(-9, 32)
75+ / 63 / 65
(55, 79) / 3
(-12, 25) / Total / 80 / 97
(78, 114) / 21
(-1, 24)
Total / 176 / 174
(156, 212) / -1
(-10, 18)
Figure 25:Cancer of all other sites
All other cancers / Male / FemaleAge / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change / Age / Observed 2002 / Projected 2012 / Projected % change
Rates / 15–24 / 1 / 1
(0, 1) / -5
(-33, 16) / 15–24 / 1 / 0
(0, 1) / -4
(-37, 16)
25–44 / 3 / 3
(2, 3) / -4
(-32, 9) / 25–44 / 3 / 3
(2, 3) / -7
(-31, 10)
45–64 / 24 / 23
(19, 31) / -2
(-19, 29) / 45–64 / 19 / 20
(15, 26) / 6
(-18, 28)
65–74 / 105 / 100
(83, 136) / -5
(-20, 31) / 65–74 / 74 / 71
(56, 99) / -5
(-25, 30)
75+ / 259 / 303
(249, 403) / 17
(-5, 53) / 75+ / 201 / 227
(172, 299) / 13
(-14, 52)
Total / 26 / 26
(22, 34) / 2
(-14, 30) / Total / 19 / 20
(15, 25) / 3
(-19, 30)
Counts / 15–24 / 2 / 2
(1, 3) / 9
(-23, 33) / 15–24 / 1 / 2
(1, 2) / 7
(-30, 34)
25–44 / 15 / 14
(9, 17) / -3
(-32, 9) / 25–44 / 16 / 15
(10, 19) / -7
(-31, 10)
45–64 / 104 / 127
(104, 169) / 22
(1, 61) / 45–64 / 85 / 116
(88, 152) / 37
(6, 62)
65–74 / 129 / 165
(137, 225) / 28
(8, 76) / 65–74 / 98 / 125
(99, 175) / 28
(0, 76)
75+ / 215 / 346
(285, 460) / 61
(31, 109) / 75+ / 263 / 350
(266, 461) / 33
(2, 110)
Total / 465 / 654
(550, 853) / 41
(19, 81) / Total / 463 / 608
(475, 791) / 31
(3, 82)
References
Black R, Stockton D. 2001. Cancer Scenarios: An aid to planning cancer services in Scotland in the next decade. Edinburgh: Scottish Executive Health Department.
Ministry of Health. 2002. Cancer in New Zealand: Trends and projections. Wellington: Ministry of Health.
Ministry of Health. 2003. The New Zealand Cancer Control Strategy. Wellington: Ministry of Health.
Ministry of Health. 2007. Cancer Incidence Projections: 1999–2003 Update. Wellington: Ministry of Health.
McDermid I. 2005. Cancer Incidence Projections for Australia 2002 to 2011. Canberra: Australian Institute for Health and Welfare.
Moller B, Fekjaer H, Hakulinen T et al. 2002. Prediction of cancer incidence in the Nordic countries up to the year 2020. Euro J Cancer Prevention 11 (Supplement 1).
Cancer Mortality Projections: 2000–2004 update1