/ CROP ESTIMATES COMMITTEE / Private Bag X246
PRETORIA
0001
Enquiries: Rona Beukes / Ref: 26.4.3 / Tel: (012) 319 8032 / Fax: (012) 319 8031 / E-mail:

2 December 2005

CALCULATED FINAL AREA AND CROP FIGURES OF SUMMER CROPS: 2004/05 PRODUCTION SEASON
CROP / FINAL
AREA PLANTED
2004/05
HA
(A) / FINAL
CROP
2004/05
TONS
(B) / CEC
AREA PLANTED
2004/05
HA
(C) / CEC
FINAL ESTIMATE
2004/05
TONS
(D) / FINAL CROP vs
FINAL ESTIMATE
%
(D) ÷ (B)
White Maize / 1 700 000 / 6 540 700 / 1 845 000 / 7 264 500 / +11,07
Yellow Maize / 1 110 000 / 4 909 300 / 1 084 500 / 4 915 800 / +0,13
Total Maize / 2 810 000 / 11 450 000 / 2 929 500 / 12 180 300 / +6,38
Sorghum / 86 500 / 260 000 / 98 240 / 297 300 / +14,35
Groundnuts / 40 000 / 64 000 / 42 800 / 74 388 / +16,23
CALCULATED FINAL CROP OF MAIZE: 2004/05 PRODUCTION SEASON
CROP / Total
Tons / Producer deliveries reported by SAGIS
(Feb-Apr 2005)
Tons / Producer deliveries reported by SAGIS
(May-Oct 2005)
Tons / Future deliveries
Tons / Retentions on farm for own use
Tons / Seed
Tons
White Maize / 6 540 700 / 67 330 / 5 908 520 / 360 700 / 183 700 / 20 450
Yellow Maize / 4 909 300 / 177 787 / 3 784 063 / 365 300 / 570 000 / 12 150
Total Maize / 11 450 000 / 245 117 / 9 692 583 / 726 000 / 753 700 / 32 600
CALCULATED FINAL CROP OF SORGHUM: 2004/05 PRODUCTION SEASON
CROP / Total
Tons / Producer deliveries reported by SAGIS
(Mrch 2005)
Tons / Producer deliveries reported by SAGIS
(Apr-Oct 2005)
Tons / Future deliveries
Tons / Retentions on farm for own use/ direct sales, etc.
Tons
Sorghum / 260 000 / 1 129 / 239 005 / 4 226 / 15 640
CALCULATED FINAL CROP OF GROUNDNUTS: 2004/05 PRODUCTION SEASON
CROP / Total
Tons / Producer deliveries reported by SAGIS
(Mrch-Oct 2005)
Tons / Future deliveries
Tons / Retentions on farm for own use/informal market, etc.
Tons
Groundnuts / 64 000 / 44 650 / 296 / 19 054

CALCULATED FINAL AREA AND CROP FIGURES OF MAIZE, SORGHUM AND GROUNDNUTS

2004/05 PRODUCTION SEASON

At its meeting held on 2 December 2005, the Crop Estimates Liaison Committee (CELC) discussed the finalisation of the white and yellow maize, sorghum and groundnuts area planted and crop production figures for the 2004/05 production season.

The estimated total production figures were revised, using the published figures of the South Africa Grain Information Service (SAGIS) of actual deliveries as the basis for the calculation. The figures from the maize utilisation survey to determine on-farm usage and retentions that was conducted by the Department of Agriculture (DoA), were added to the SAGIS figures to calculate final figures.

Comparing the re-calculated crop figures with the numbers set by the Crop Estimates Committee during September, the CEC has over-estimated the commercial maize, sorghum and groudnuts crops by 6,4, 14,4, and 16,2%, respectively. Please note that the area planted figures were also slightly revised. The final calculated area and crop figures are attached.

The aim of the CEC is to set the final estimate within 5% of the final calculated crop. In the case of maize the 6,4 % over-estimate represents a move in the right direction and this is also the first time since 1995/96 that the commercial maize crop has been over-estimated. The use of remote-sensing technology should bring the estimates closer to the final crop figures in future.