Briefingfor Weather Forecast

forKOKC
(Will Rodgers World Airport, Oklahoma City, OK)
on the day, month, and year for which you are forecasting

Your Name

METR 104

Today’s date

0. Overview

Start with a large-scale overview of current conditions, using items linked below (which you don’t have to change):

  • visible and infrared satellite images
  • a composite surface weather map
  • a composite map for conditions aloft
  • a jet stream map

Then address one or more selected items of the forecasting assignment by inserting or editing text in the appropriate template(s) below, as needed (e.g., from the latest NWS point forecast. Each forecast item should include a discussion, links to supporting materials, and the forecast itself. Later you’ll add a forecast “verification” (see template at the end of this document).

1. 12Z Temperature

Discussion: [Describe the part of the conceptual model of the daily temperature cycle that provides the basis for the your forecast, then describe how you applied the model to the available information to make your forecast. It should be detailed enough for someone else to reproduce if necessary.]

Links to Supporting Information:

  • Latest available meteogram

(Drag and drop a copy of the meteogram here, and rescale it to a smaller size.)

  • Next-latest available meteogram

(Drag and drop a copy of the meteogram here, below the link [putting both on a new page if necessary], and rescale it to a smaller size)

  • Latest NWS Point Forecast:

[Copy and paste text from that forecast relevant to 12Z tomorrow. For example:

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South southeast wind around 6 mph. ]

  • Latest computer model (NAM) forecast of winds and temperatures at 12Z tomorrow (central Oklahoma)

(Drag and drop a copy of the NAM forecast map here, below the link, and rescale the map to a smaller size.)

Forecast: [Enter your forecast here, as you would at Iowa State University.]

2. Will cloudiness affect the 12Z temperature tomorrow?

Discussion: [State the criteria for whether or not clouds will affect the 18Z temperature. Then identify the source(s) of the information that you use to make your forecast and the reasoning that you apply, including any assumptions that you make.]

Links:

  • Latest NWS Point Forecast:

[Copy and paste text from that forecast relevant to 12Z tomorrow. For example:

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South southeast wind around 6 mph. ]

  • wunderWiki: “Educational: Partly Cloudy” (an attempt to interpret the language used in NWS cloudiness forecasts)

Forecast: [Enter your forecast here, as you would at Iowa State University.]

3. Will a front affect the 12Z temperature tomorrow?

Discussion:[State the criteria for whether or not a front will affect the 12Z temperature. Then identify the source(s) of the information you used to make your forecast and the reasoning that you apply, including any assumptions that you make.The discussion should be detailed enough for someone else to reproduce it if necessary.]

Links:

  • NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Short Range Forecasts

(Drag and drop copies of the relevant “short range forecast” maps here, and rescale them to a smaller size. Label each with the forecast time).

  • Verification area for fronts affecting KOKC

Forecast: [Enter your forecast here, as you would at Iowa State University.]

4. 18Z Temperature

Discussion: [Describe the part of the conceptual model of the daily temperature cycle that provides the basis for the your forecast, then describe how you applied the model to the available information to make your forecast. It should be detailed enough for someone else to reproduce if necessary.]

The 18Z temperature forecasting worksheet might help here, too—copy and paste it into your briefing document and fill it out.

Links:

  • Latest available meteogram

(Drag and drop a copy of the meteogram here, and rescale it to a smaller size.)

  • Next-latest available meteogram

(Drag and drop a copy of the meteogram here, below the link [putting both on a new page if necessary], and rescale it to a smaller size)

  • Latest NWS Point Forecast:

[Copy and paste text from that forecast relevant to 12Z tomorrow. For example:

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 65. Southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming southwest. ]

•Latest computer model (NAM) forecast of winds and temperatures at 18Z tomorrow (central Oklahoma)

(Drag and drop a copy of the NAM forecast map here, below the link, and rescale the map to a smaller size.)

Forecast: [Enter your forecast here, as you would at Iowa State University.]

5. Will cloudiness affect the 18Z temperature tomorrow?

Discussion: [State the criteria for whether or not clouds will affect the 18Z temperature. Then identify the source(s) of the information that you use to make your forecast and the reasoning that you apply, including any assumptions that you make. The discussion should be detailed enough for someone else to reproduce it if necessary.]

Links:

  • Latest NWS Point Forecast:

[Copy and paste text from that forecast relevant to 18Z tomorrow. For example:

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 65. Southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming southwest. ]

  • wunderWiki: “Educational: Partly Cloudy” (an attempt to interpret the languages used in NWS cloudiness forecasts)

Forecast: [Enter your forecast here.]

6. Will a front affect the 18Z temperature tomorrow?

Discussion:[State the criteria for whether or not a front will affect the 18Z temperature. Then identify the source(s) of the information you used to make your forecast and the reasoning that you apply, including any assumptions that you make.The discussion should be detailed enough for someone else to reproduce it if necessary.]

Links:

  • NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Short Range Forecasts

(Drag and drop copies of the relevant “short range forecast” maps here, and rescale them to a smaller size. Label each with the forecast time).

  • Verification area for fronts affecting KOKC

Forecast: [Enter your forecast here.]

7.What will the wind speed be at 18Z tomorrow?

Discussion:[Identify the sources of information that you use for making your forecast, together with the analysis and reasoning that you use. In particular, comment on the relative strengths and weaknesses of the NWS point forecast and the NAM forecast and comment on how you factor them into your forecast, explain how you convert wind speed in miles per hour to knots, and the results.It should be detailed enough for someone else to reproduce it if necessary.]

Links:

  • Latest NWS Point Forecast:

[Copy and paste text from that forecast relevant to 18Z tomorrow. For example:

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 65. Southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming southwest. ]

•Latest computer model (NAM) forecast of winds and temperatures at 18Z tomorrow (southern Plains region)

(Drag and drop a copy of the NAM forecast map here, below the link, and rescale the map to a smaller size.)

•Latest computer model (NAM) forecast of winds and temperatures at 18Z tomorrow (central Oklahoma)

(Drag and drop a copy of the NAM forecast map here, below the link, and rescale the map to a smaller size.)

Forecast: [Enter your forecast here, as you would at Iowa State University.]

8.What will the wind direction be at 18Z tomorrow?

(Same template as the question above, on wind speed at 18Z tomorrow.)

9. Will there be precipitation between 12Z tomorrow and 12Z the next day?

Discussion:[Identify your source(s) of information and explain the analysis and reasoning that you use to make your forecast. The discussion should be detailed enough for someone else to reproduce it if necessary.]

Links:

  • NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Short Range Forecasts

(Drag and drop copies of the relevant “short range forecast” maps here, and rescale them to a smaller size. Label each with the forecast time).

  • Latest NWS Point Forecast:

[Copy and paste text from that forecast relevant to 12Z tomorrow to 12Z the next day. For example:
Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South southeast wind around 6 mph.
Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 65. Southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming southwest. ]
Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. West southwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming south southeast.

Forecast: [Enter your forecast here, as you would at Iowa State University.]

Forecast Verification:

•Archived meteograms

•Archived weather maps for the Great Plains, including fronts

•Archived analyses of temperature and wind observations

[Compare the appropriate observation(s) with your forecast. How would ISU score it?]