Breaking Down the NBA Finals
James Kruger
Vegas Sports Authority

The Detroit Pistons and the San Antonio Spursare very evenly matched. They are very close in many statistical categories. We had San Antonio #1 and Detroit #4 in our final regular season power rankings.

Why San Antonio will win:

  1. Detroit is 4-0 in the Playoffs this year when Rasheed Wallace scores 20 points. In the one game this year where Tim Duncan played a full game against Detroit, Rasheed Wallace only had ten points on a horrendous 5 of 18 shooting.
  2. San Antonio is well rested. They must be “chomping at the bit” to play. Detroit is coming off of a very emotional come-from-behind victory over Miami to “beat the odds” and make it to the Finals. Detroit has been very inconsistent, seemingly playing hard with good focus only when needed. How focused will they be in this first game?
  3. San Antonio has more offensive weapons than Detroit. Bruce Bowen will be on Rip Hamilton, the Piston’s leading scorer. In the two match-ups this year, Hamilton was a combined 8 for 26, 30.7%, with an average 9.5 points. This puts a lot of pressure to score on Billups & Prince.
  4. San Antonio is the better team. They beat three very good teams this year in the Playoffs. The Pistons downed an injured Heat team, an over-achieving Pacers, and Allen Iverson and the other four guys that play with him. The Spurs downed the surging Nuggets, the Sonics who had the sixth best record this year, and the team with the best record, Phoenix.
  5. Tony Parker’s quickness will get the best of Chauncey Billups. Detroit has shown a weakness against dribble penetration. Parker is one of the best in the game at penetration. He has four Spurs hitting over 40% in the Playoffs from 3-point range that he can kick it out to.
  6. The Pistons will lose their cool in a game and self-implode through arguing with officials, histrionics, and throwing of headbands.
  7. The Spurs have a better bench. This year the Spurs added three-point specialist Brent Barry. They have an underrated Beno Udrih, a crafty, playoff-hardened Robert Horry who has a history of hitting big shots, a decent back-up to Nazr in Rasho Nesterovic, and the forgotten veteran Glenn Robinson who hasn’t played in the last five games due to the death of his mother. Robinson still has the ability to be instant-offense as he was in Game 1 against Seattle when he dropped in 16 in 14 minutes. Popovich will probably start Barry and get the added spark of Manu off the pine.

McDyess & Hunter are positives for the Pistons but Carlos Arroyo will be a positive for the Spurs when he is on the floor.

  1. San Antonio is multi-dimensional offensively, Detroit is a one-dimensional team. The Spurs

whipped a physical Denver team, beat the small ball Sonics in six, and ran with the best running team in the league, the Suns. Detroit has experienced offensively-painful 12-point quarters.

Why Detroit will win:

  1. Billups will be able to post up Tony Parker and his size and strength will keep Parker in check on the offensive end. In three of the four Spurs defeats in the Playoffs, Parker shot 34%, averaged only 12.3 pts, and committed 15 TO’s to 14 assists.
  2. Rasheed Wallace will play with passion and Duncan will have difficulty guarding him from the perimeter.
  3. Having to survive two straight potential elimination games has kept Detroit very focused and they will “steal” a game in San Antonio and take home court advantage.
  4. The “lucky injury” happens again and Duncan or Ginobli go down.
  5. The Spurs are more athletic. The Pistons will have to play tough and bang inside to frustrate Duncan and keep penetration to a minimum. The Pistons have a number of bodies they can throw at Duncan. If he struggles and Detroit can play him one-on-one, that will allow the Pistons to stay on the Spurs outside shooters.

PREDICTION: San Antonio in six.
Just fyi, there have only been 3 Game 7’s in the NBA Finals since 1977.