MEGAPROJECTS ENERGY WG
BRAINSTORMING NOTES NATURAL LANGUAGE ANALYSIS AND CONDENSATION
L-F Pau, 2012-10-12
ABSTRACT:
*Taking the syntactically edited brainstorming notes from the Bratislava panel (Section 1) , triggered by an unfocussed question on Megaprojects in general, and further manual editing/ preparation / domain adaptation (Section 2) as input, the automated proprietary tool (based on References [1-3]) generates several results. They include in Section 3 and Section 4 the nominal group clustering tree with the assumed root structure. Section 5 gives the aggregated hypothesis rules organized by aggregation mechanism ([1-3]).
*The results, which are the hypothesis rules ranked by relevant note counts are given in Section 6. The note counts linked to specific hypothesis rules are given in Section 7 for quality control to avoid dominance of any specific brainstorming notes.
*The hypothesis rules are subject by two ratings (Section 8) from 6 independent Energy WG cases, by case authors and/or project management.
*In summary, the natural language analysis of 70 sentences produced by the unfocussed brainstorming panel, and subsequent rating of the derived hypothesis from 6 independent cases, produces the following general rules about Megaprojects:
Hypothesis rules validated with high note counts:
A: Good management and good outcome are correlated
C: Links and incentives must be created for success for the different categories of Users and Builders
Hypothesis rules validated with average or low note counts:
F: Policy AND Regulations are linked to execution AND outcome
G: The deployment context must be aligned with local benefits
H: Performance is improved by management
I: The same actors are found across Europe
J: Megaproject characteristics are linked to outcome
Three hypothesis rules are not validated.
*Subsequent refinement of these rules, or the generation of new rules, for example on priorities regarding the execution, or success, or other characteristics of Megaprojects, would require a more focused second brainstorming with one initial proposition / statement to which panelists would have to react in view of producing focused comments (to be analyzed in the same way). This is standard in sequential brainstorming analysis with refinements.
Text in this color means there is still some ambiguity requiring Note author clarification.
1. Brainstorming notes from Milan 16/7/2012
These notes are the result of syntactic editing by WG of the original brainstorming notes from Bratislava, as carried out in WG session in Milano. The Milan notes are reproduced “as is”.
This brainstorming was unfocussed, with no specific proposition to be reflected upon , except collecting general ideas on Megaprojects.
OLD Number / Hypothesis / idea / Author1 / A strong regulation system is a Critical Success Factor for Megaprojects / Mauro
2 / The same actors are involved as external stakeholders across Europe / Naomi
3 / If the historical experience of megaprojects is good it is more likely that the project will be accptable to External Stakeholders / Naomi
4 / If the unemployment in the area of the megaproject is higher than the nationa average it is more likely that the project will be accptable to External Stakeholders / Naomi
5 / Environmental activists and regulators must be engaged ex-ante, not ex post / Pau
7 / If the public trust licensing authorities, the public are less likely to oppose megaprojects. / Naomi
8 / The successful completion of a megaproject requires the specific enactment of legislative or regulatory support / Naomi
9 / If the project director is experienced, the implementation of the megaproject is more likely to be successful. / Naomi
10 / The distribution of social class across the stakeholders affects stakeholder acceptability. / Naomi
11 / If more is spent on the local community by the megaproject, the external stakeholders are more likely to accept the megaproject. / Naomi
12 / If the local opposition is high the the Megaproject can be stopped / Mauro
13 / If the emotional connection with the landscape is high than the Social Acceptance is lower / Nina
14 / The more multicultural the megaproject is, the less it can succeed / Mauro
15 / State goverment policies and priorities are necessary for natural stakeholder execution and project performance / Pau
16 / A strong polical committment is a Critical Success Factor / Mauro
17 / Conservativism in the local communities is a barrier for megaproject development / Koloman
18 / The support of the central Parliament is a Critical Success Factor for
the project / Mauro
21 / Projects run by a foreign company achieve low performance / Giorgio
22 / Project culture impacts upon the success of the project. / Naomi
Siemens is involved in all EU megaprojects
23 / Siemens is involved in all EU megaprojects / Naomi
24
25 / the affiliation of the project manager impacts on the project performance
26 / The presence of one dominant stakeholder is a Critical Success Factor / Mauro
27 / The experience of the stakeholders determine the success of the project / Pau
28 / Megaprojects needs long term stability in usage and value to succeed / Pau
30 / If at the project investor has a dominant position and the politicians are weak, then the project will be initiated ineffectively / Gerald
31 / If the project owner has no formal authority on the resources, the project will fail / Gerald
33 / Megaproject are most likley to succeed when the owner is from the private sector / Mauro
34 / Modular projects benefit from accumulated learning and carry less risks / Pau
37 / A resilient project management structure is Critical success Factor for Megaproject / Koloman
38 / The usage of milestones makes a project more likely to succeed / Pau
39 / Formal use of project management tools and techniques is a Critical success Factor / Mauro
42 / Using specific techiniques to estimate cost improves project performance
43 / Usage of performance metrics is a Critical Success Factor / Mauro
45 / The sponsor and owner of the project have to be different for the project to succeed
46 / The contractual framework is important for megaproject success. / Naomi
47 / Contract type and concept maturity must fit / Gerald
48 / Turn key contracts in megaprojects causes budget overruns, delays and litigation.
50 / The quality ofthe feasibility study is important . / Koloman
51 / The clear target of main SH is a C.S.F. / Mauro
53 / The level of detail in a FEED is a Critical Success Factor
for the project. / Mauro
55 / The investment in external Communication is a Critical Success Factor
for the project. / Mauro
56 / The more mature the industry sector, the more likely the project is to succeed.
57 / A life cycle perspective is a critical success factor. / Tomas
59 / Project performance and environmental condition is related.
63 / The decision making style has influence on the project performance
64 / The longer the project life-cycle, the higher the risk of budget overuns and delay / Giorgio
65 / Modular projects have better performance than "stand alone" projects. / Giorgio
66 / Complexity is related to uncertainity.
67 / The higher the level of innovation in the project , the less likely it is to succeed. / Mauro
68 / The greater the ability and willingness to forecast technology changes, the more likely the project is to succeed. / Koloman
69 / The use of proven tecnology is a critical success factor
70 / The internal organisational structure of the project impacts on project performance. / Nina
2. Editing for void lines and inconsistent word notations
2.1.-Void lines removed
2.2.-Notes without numbers got numbered
2.3.-Non sequential numbering of notes in 1. replaced by continuous sequence
2.4.-Syntax corrected (English); upper/lower cases uniformized
2.5.-Context Ambiguity resolved:
Project=Megaproject
Missing implicit subject: megaproject
More is spentàMore funding is spent
Central Parliamentà Parlament
State governmentà Government
To estimate costà to estimate megaproject cost
Usage of performance metricsàUsage of megaproject performance metrics
…to succeed= success= successful
contractual framework: àcontractual megaproject framework
SH->stakeholder
Local opposition àlocal community opposition
acceptability= acceptance
to stop= stop
barrier= NOT(acceptability)
oppose= NOT(acceptability)
organizational structure = management structure
budget overrun= cost overrun
using= usage of
private sector= private sector policy
to fail= failure= NOT(success)
to initiate= start
(mega)project director=(mega) project manager
2.6.-Punctuation separators added
2.7.-Specific Terminology added:
CN (Custom name):
CN1: Critical success factor = CSF
CN2: Megaproject
CN3: Stakeholders
CN4: “External stakeholders” (CN3 (-1))
CN5: National average
CN6: “Regulatory authorities”=” Licensing authorities”=Regulators
CN7: “Project director”
CN8: Siemens
CN9: FEED
CN10: “stand alone”
CN11: “social levels”
CN12: “emotional connection”
CN13: “government policy”
CN14: “contractual framework”=”contract type”
CN15: “Life cycle perspective”
2.8. -Brainstorming author semantic ambiguity override:
1) distribution of social class across the stakeholders à the variance of social levels amongst stakeholders
2) clear target of main stakeholderà having a main stakeholder with clear goals
NEW Numbers / Hypothesis / idea / OLD numbers1 / A strong regulatory system is a CSF for megaprojects / 1
2 / The same actors are involved as external stakeholders across Europe / 2
3 / If the historical experience of megaprojects is good, it is more likely that the megaproject will be acceptable to external stakeholders / 3
4 / If the unemployment in the area of the megaproject is higher than the national average, it is more likely that the megaproject will be acceptable to external stakeholders / 4
5 / Environmental activists and regulators must be engaged ex-ante, not ex-post / 5
6 / If the public trusts regulators, the public is less likely to oppose megaprojects / 7
7 / The successful completion of a megaproject requires the specific enactment of legislative or regulatory support / 8
8 / If the project director is experienced, the implementation of the megaproject is more likely to be successful. / 9
9 / The distribution of social class (variance of social levels amongst) across the stakeholders affects stakeholder acceptability. / 10
10 / If more funding is spent on the local community by the megaproject, the external stakeholders are more likely to accept the megaproject / 11
11 / If the local community opposition is high, the megaproject can be stopped / 12
12 / If the emotional connection with the landscape is high, then the social acceptability is lower / 13
13 / The more multicultural the megaproject is, the less it can succeed / 14
14 / Government policies and priorities are necessary for natural stakeholder execution and megaproject performance / 15
15 / A strong political commitment of is a CSF / 16
16 / Conservatism in the local communities is a barrier for megaproject development / 17
17 / The support of megaproject by Parliament is a CSF / 18
18 / Megaprojects run by a foreign company achieve low performance / 21
19 / Megaproject culture impacts upon the success of the megaproject / 22
20 / Siemens is involved in all EU megaprojects / 23
21 / The affiliation of the megaproject manager impacts on the megaproject performance / 25
22 / The presence of one dominant stakeholder is a CSF / 26
23 / The experience of the stakeholders determine the success of the megaproject / 27
24 / Megaprojects needs long term stability in usage and value to succeed / 28
25 / If the megaproject investor has a dominant position and the politicians are weak, then the megaproject will be initiated ineffectively / 30
26 / If the megaproject owner has no formal authority on the resources, the megaproject will fail / 31
27 / Megaprojects are most likely to succeed when the owner is from the private sector / 33
28 / Modular megaprojects benefit from accumulated learning and carry less risks / 34
29 / A resilient megaproject management structure is a CSF for a megaproject / 37
30 / The usage of milestones makes a megaproject more likely to succeed / 38
31 / Formal use of project management tools and techniques is a CSF / 39
32 / Using specific techniques to estimate megaproject cost improves megaproject performance / 42
33 / Usage of megaproject performance metrics is a CSF / 43
34 / The sponsor and owner of the megaproject have to be different for the megaproject success / 45
35 / The contractual megaproject framework is important for megaproject success / 46
36 / Megaproject contract type and megaproject concept maturity must fit / 47
37 / Turnkey contracts in megaprojects cause budget overruns, delays and litigation. / 48
38 / The quality of the megaproject feasibility study is important / 50
39 / Having a main stakeholder with clear goals is a C.S.F. / 51
40 / The level of detail in a FEED is a CSF for the megaproject / 53
41 / The investment in megaproject external communication is a CSF
for the megaproject / 55
42 / The more mature the industry sector, the more likely the megaproject success
43 / A megaproject life cycle perspective is a CSF
44 / Megaproject performance and environmental condition are related
45 / The decision making style has influence on the megaproject performance
46 / The longer the megaproject life-cycle, the higher the risk of budget overruns and delay
47 / Modular megaprojects have better performance than "stand alone" megaprojects
48 / Complexity is related to uncertainty
49 / The higher the level of innovation in the megaproject , the less likely is success
50 / The greater the ability and willingness to forecast technology changes, the more likely the megaproject success
51 / The use of proven technology is a CSF
52 / The internal organizational structure of the megaproject impacts on megaproject performance
3. Root nominal categories