Gabriel Duarte

Poli 245

10/6/15

Single Point Paper

BolsaFamilia and the PT’s New Electoral Coalition

In her article on the shift in Lula da Silva´s electoral coalition from 2002 to 2006, Simone Bohn arguesthat Lula's reelection was not based on a large new voting block of poor voters that benefit fromBolsaFamilia. She uses survey data to show that although Lula's voting base changed from 2002 to 2006, it was not due to BolsaFamilia. I would argue, however, that the election results of 2010 and 2014 clearly show that BolsaFamilia and other social spending done by PT since 2002 has won the party a large base of loyal (voters who self-identify with the PT) voters in 2006 and beyond.

Looking at the 2010 and 2014 electoral maps (see Figures 1 and 2), it is clear the PT's support base is the poorer northeast region of the country, and not the wealthier south and southeast regions of the country.Bohn spends a lot of time attempting to prove that BolsaFamilia did not account for Lula's 2006 victory, but she never considers other social spending projects undertaken by the PT, particularly in the northeast part of the country. Besides Bolsa, the PT has spent a lot of money on electricity and sanitation projects in the rural Northeast. Along with BolsaFamilia, these projects undoubtedly helped garner support for Lula in the Northeast in 2006. I argue this view is supported by the election results of 2010 and 2014, which show the PT continuing to dominate the polls in the Northeast despite a different PT candidate (DilmaRousseff), and an economic recession in 2014.

In Brazil, party identification is traditionally weak. The PT, however, has atypically high levels of party identification among supporters. "The levels of party identification are very low in Brazil. However, among those who do declare a party identification, more than half identify themselves with the Workers' Party" (Bohn 2011: 59). This is why the Northeast has voted so consistently for the PT in the last three elections regardless of the candidate. Generous social spending policies by the PT have increased PT party identification, which has powered their recent electoral success. I would argue lower class voters in this region associate the PT with all of the social spending initiatives enacted since 2002, and for this reason, have continued to identify and vote with the PT even as the economic situation in Brazil has worsened.

Figure 1: 2010 Election ResultsFigure 2: 2014 Election Results

References

Bohn, S. 2011. Social Policy and Vote in Brazil. Latin American Research Review,46(1).

Menegaz, Felipe. 2010.2010 Brazilian Presidential Election Map. Digital image. Wikipedia, n.d. Web.

2014 Brazilian Presidential Election Results. Digital image. The Economist, n.d. Web.

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