Assignment 2 - Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
ASSIGNMENT
This assignment will review your understanding of the ACH method. You will need to develop a Intelligence Question and review multiple hypotheses using the eight step process from the readings.
INSTRUCTIONS
First you must chose a question that requires you to make a prediction of the outcome. This can be an event that has occurred in the past (Yom Kippur War / Sept 11 attacks) or it can be an ongoing event (Iran pursuing a nuclear weapon / North Korea attacking South Korea).
Review the eight steps of ACH from the readings:
1. Identify the possible hypotheses to be considered.
2. Make a list of significant evidence and arguments for and against each hypothesis.(you must cite the sources that you pull the information from)
3. Prepare a matrix with hypotheses across the top and evidence down the side. Analyze the "diagnosticity" of the evidence and arguments--that is, identify which items are most helpful in judging the relative likelihood of the hypotheses.
4. Refine the matrix. Reconsider the hypotheses and delete evidence and arguments that have no diagnostic value.
5. Draw tentative conclusions about the relative likelihood of each hypothesis. Proceed by trying to disprove the hypotheses rather than prove them.
6. Analyze how sensitive your conclusion is to a few critical items of evidence. Consider the consequences for your analysis if that evidence were wrong, misleading, or subject to a different interpretation.
7. Report conclusions. Discuss the relative likelihood of all the hypotheses, not just the most likely one.
8. Identify milestones for future observation that may indicate events are taking a different course than expected.
FORMAT
This assignment must be typed in double-spaced format. Use MS Word 12 or similar font size, black lettering and white backgrounds; and standard font style (Times New Roman or Ariel preferred).
Use the following headings in your written submission:
- Introduction to the Intelligence Question (what will you predict outcome for)
- Possible Hypotheses (3 or 4)
- Evidence Found (results of research - you need a minimum of 20 pieces of evidence in order to include them into your matrix - Label each as E1, E2, E3 ..... E20)
- Hypothesis Matrix (create the matrix from Figure 15 from the readings)
- Analyzed Hypothesis Matrix (above matrix after evidence with no diagnostic value has been deleted)
- Conclusions on Hypotheses (what did you find to be true / false of the hypothesis)
- Assessment (what is the likelihood of each hypothesisoccurring - list the most likely hypothesis first
- Milestones (what evidence can be observed in future collection to change the analysis of the most likely hypothesis to another hypothesis)
GRADING
- Because the evidence needed to support / disprove a hypothesis requires research This assignment is due on Sunday, Week 4, 11:59PM (EST). Points will be deducted for late submissions.
- Follow the format above. Use in-text citations (footnotes) for all information you find through research. Use Turabian style for Footnotes and Bibliography. If you have not used any citations you have either plagiarized or royally screwed something up in this assignment.
- All eight headings above are required. Failure to use those headings will be graded unfavorably. See grading rubric in syllabus for further grading criteria.