Analysis of 2014 Hiking Season Data
Methodology
The mailing list for hikes as of May 2014 was used as the starting point for the analysis. That list was then copied and used as a working data base, adding names as required during the season. At the end of the hiking season, there were 326 names in the database, up from the original 224 names. For each of those 326 hikers/mailing list members, the following data were coded for each of the 74 hikes: leader, co-leader, hiker, cancellation, wait list, or non-participant, resulting in 24124 entries. In addition, each of the 74 hikes was coded for level of difficulty (AE, AM, AD, BE, BM, BD, and CE, CM, and CD).
Names Added to the Database
Argentati, Rico
Arnett, Donna
Artale, Robert
Auda, David
Beggs, Judith
Bennett, Carol
Bodenhamer, Susan
Brennan, Pamela
Brindley, Terri
Brown ,Rohn
Butler, Thomas
Byrne, Mary Jeanne
Carpenter, Francoise
Christopherson, Joan
Clark, Karen
Collins, George
Cotton, Brad
Dalrymple, Lonnie
Drummond, Joan
DuPuis, Linda
Ehrhart, Svetlana
Endly, Nancy
Fischer, Jaqueline
Floom, Daniel
Forsberg, Lynn
Gerstner, Paula
Greenlee, Chris
Greenstreet, Richard
Griest, David
Grimes, David
Gulbenkian, Martha
Heffron, Tim
Heist, Linda
Horan, Joan
Hull, Helen
Ibrisagic, Zinka
Keifer, Sharon
Kobets, Svetlana
Lachowetz, Deborah
Lieb, Ken
Margolis, James
Marty, Crystal
Mataich, Jane
Mayer, Diane
McCreedy, Michael
McFarland, Tracy
McVie, Sandy
Montzer, Jean
Nelson, Karen
Norton, Ann
ONeal, Claire
Orr, Nancy
Passoth, Richard
Perkins, Becky
Pfeifer, Ron
Porter, Brenda
Robinson, Sandra
Rohrer, Marian
Russell, Terri
Schliemann, Neil
Schlundt, Kent
Serff, Brian
Smith, Carol
Smith, Maria
Smith, Marian
Smith, Shawn
Soule, Sandra
Spray, Rosina
Stevens, Linda
Strobel-McLean, Joni
Teleky, Dagmar
Tenney, Robert
Usui, Mariko
Waymire, Tom
Wilde, William
Wright, Laura
The additional names could be explained in several ways. First, hikers who simply check the calendar and sign up for the hike rather than being on the mailing list. Second, although hikes are listed as RMOTHG hikes, we do not check each hiker against the OTHG member list. Third, some of these hikers could be guests.
Mailing List Members who did not Hike
Ackert, Marcy
Adams, Karen
Artale, Robert
Baker, Fred
Baron, Geraldine
Barschdorf, Gloria
Bartlett, Gurney
Beggs, Judith
Benson, brad
Betin, Irene
Brindley, Terri
Buchholz, Rogene
Burford, Nina
Chr, Tom
Christiansen, Kim
Christopherson, Joan
Clary, Nancy
Clauder, Rick
Cohen, Evie
Collins, George
Connole, Thomas
Cooper, Dorse
Cornell, Catherine
Dagenhart, Gary
Dalrymple, Lonnie
Daniels, Wheeler
Davis, Nancy
Dietzler, Darlene
Dimmick, James
Dirks, Sandra
Dixon, Lou Ann
DuPuis, Linda
Egan, Glenann
Fischer, James
Fisk, William (Bill)
Fleming, John
Forsberg, Lynn
Giffen, Carol
Giordano, Pam
Guy, Gina
Halloran, Timothy
Hazen, Kenneth
Heist, Linda
Heist, Ron
Helman, Rowena
Herald, Joyce
Horn, Monica
Huff, Betty
Hull, Helen
Jameson, Pat
Janusz, Ruth
Johnson, Janie
Johnson, Judy
Jordan, Joseph
Kanewske, Steve
Kendrick, Diana
Kieding, Warren
Kripakov, Lynn
Kristel, Selma
Labin, Christine
Leifer, Ellen
Lilly, Bev
Lowe, Patricia
Manzione, John
Markman, Dennis
Marrama, Diana
Marty, Crystal
Matschulat, Robert
Mauthe, Al
Meuret, Nancy
Mulcahy, Joan
Nelson, Kristine
Neumann, Claude
Oliver, Stu
ONeal, Claire
Orr, Nancy
Orwick, Tim
Petersen, Jim
Pezzutti, David
Pezzutti, Tonya
Pfefer, Martin
Pfeifer, Ron
Phebus, Erika
Rathbun, Gloria
Renney, Scott
Riach, Susan
Rohrer, Marian
Russell, Terri
Sbrockey, Karen
Schiel, Alice
Schlundt, Kent
Schwartz, Lisa
Shinn, Clarence
Slater, Carl
Slone, Jeff
Soule, Sandra
Stafford, Clyda
Starling, Jean
Starrett, Gary
Stelzer, Robert
Stevens, Linda
Strand, Beverly
Strobel-McLean, Joni
Sutton, Elaine
Symanski, Sally
Tenney, Robert
Tewell, Debbie
Thompson, Hayden
Tollefsen, Kirsten
Towle, Margie
Walker, Paul
Walker, Valerie
Walter, Sandra
Wanken, Frank
Weaver, Michael
Wendell, Roger J.
Wickham, Donna
Wilde, William
Work, Ed
Wright, Stephanie
Zurcher, Carol
This list is one of the more interesting bits of information. With 74 hikes offered, these members did not choose to participate in any hikes. The only way we can figure out why this happened is to ask the members directly which could be done fairly easily with Survey Monkey. A variety of hikes were offered, and we certainly had plenty of hikers, but something was missing for this group. Another way to look at this is that it isn’t a problem, but rather a way to keep connected with these members who have expressed an interest in hiking. It’s a bit of a bother to maintain the extra names on the database but e mailing them doesn’t require a significant effort.
Participation Analysis
Inclusion of everyone on the mailing list as well as those reported by rosters.
This table shows the participation or non participation of all on the mailing list, rosters, wait lists, and cancellation lists. There were over 140 members who never hiked.
Participation Excluding Non Hikers
This graph presents the same information as above but amplified by exclusion of non-hikers.
This table shows that 43 members took 1 hike.
With the exclusion of the non-hikers, the distribution of hikes taken becomes a bit clearer. As would be expected, those who took only one hike represent a large number but there are also some other high points. There is a noticeable bump at the 8 hike level equating to a hike every 3 weeks which seems reasonable.
Hike Analysis
Levels of Hikes Offered
This table shows that there were 22 AM hikes.
Most of our hikes are at A level which likely reflects the interest level of our members. Additional hikes at the B and C level were also consistently offered albeit in fewer numbers.
Whether this is the proper mix of hike levels cannot be determined by this data, but could be a question asked of hikers on our mailing list. However, asking the question might also bring up a need for additional hikes and additional hike leaders.
Unique Hikers by Hike Difficulty
This table shows that approximately 155 unique hikers took an A hike.
This table answers the question, how many different hikers took A hikes, B hikes, or C hikes. It gets a little deeper than simply counting how many hikers completed hikes at a specific level, as some of those hikers complete multiple hikes at a single level. It would appear that we offer a good mix of the three levels, but again, not directly asking our members what they want; it’s hard to say whether we are meeting their needs.
Cancellations
Cancellations are an issue on several levels. To begin with, this graph simply presents the number of cancellations per hikes.
This table shows that for 14 hikes, there were no cancellations.
The blanks for 11 and 12 means that there were no hikes with 11 or 12 cancellations. There were 2 hikes with mega cancellations of 13 and 14 respectively.
Cancellations can happen for so many different reasons it’s difficult to determine causes. Probably the primary reason for cancellations is weather related. There were several weeks during the summer when hikes were actually cancelled due to weather. However, during that same time, several leaders persevered and offered the hikes, but had mass cancellations of hikers. Most cancellations happen at an individual level for any number of reasons. The issue for hike leaders is that the timing of those cancellations can impact the hiking leader as well as those on the waiting lists.
Cancellations Per Hiker
Another way to look at cancellation is the number of cancellations made per hiker
This table illustrates that there were 55 members who cancelled for 1 hike.
Of the 245 hikers, 124 had no cancellations. Most hikers, who had a cancellation, only cancelled one or two hikes.
A recurring problem is hikers who have repeated cancellations. The following graph simply amplifies the above graph, minus the lower numbers.
This table shows that there were 5 members who cancelled 4 times.
In some instances, these hikers have legitimate reasons for their repeated cancellations, but again unless they let us know, no causation can be identified. We don’t want to discourage members from signing up, but last minute cancellations give those on the wait lists very little time to make plans to hike. Hike leaders may need to take the lead in these isolated incidents and work with the hiker during the registration period.
Wait List
As with cancellations, wait list issues are numerous. In the past, RMOTHG has offered mega hikes with 35 or more hikers per hike. Those hikes put a burden on the hike leader, although often there were multiple hike leaders, but also changed the nature of the hike from a pristine walk in the woods to more of a forced march. It also makes it difficult for the trip leader to find a post-hike restaurant willing to accommodate such a large group.
This table shows that there were 60 hikes with no wait lists.
Most hikes accommodated hikers on the wait lists although there were certainly disappointed members. Wait lists can only be addressed through additional hikes which means additional hike leaders as well. Location of the hike also comes in to play with Wilderness Restrictions. RMOTHG has been pro-active in encouraging members to become hike leaders which is a positive step.
Conclusions
Collecting this level of data is important to get a better understanding of the hiking program. It illustrates areas where more information is needed in order to make recommendations and changes. I hope this information will be valuable to the trip coordinators and leaders.