AFTER THE FALL OF NORTH KOREA
A POST-CONFLICT FOREIGN HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE EXERCISE
Backdrop: FHA Hypothetical Current Conditions (Case Study 1):
1. It is May 2020. It has been three months since the unprovoked North Korea attack. Fighting is largely over and US Forces continue their efforts to locate, contain, and remove any weapons of mass destruction (WMDs).
2. Scattered North Korean army insurgents continue their guerilla warfare. Both the North and the South sustained significant infrastructure damage as well as extremely high casualty rates. Conservative estimates in the first hours of military conflict indicate that the North Korean conventional artillery and missile batteries situated along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) caused tens of thousands of casualties in South Korea, where at least 100,000 (and possibly as many as 500,000) U.S. soldiers and citizens reside. South Korea’s deaths and injuries on the civilian side were much higher than anticipated – nearly half of the casualties were due to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK’s) indiscriminate use of artillery and missile fires and its limited use of chemical weapons (CW).
3. In the aftermath of fighting, it has now been determined that the DPRK used non-persistent nerve agent sarin on advancing South Korean and U.S. troop formations above and below the DMZ, and the DPRK shelled rear-area military garrisons as well as Seoul with the persistent blister agent sulfur mustard. Difficult CW remediation in South Korea continues as a few thousand civilians were severely affected. The hospitals and morgues in South Korea are overwhelmed, causing further trauma.Given the level of destruction to its infrastructure south of the DMZ to an area south of Seoul, the South Korean Government is overwhelmed with its own humanitarian crisis.
4. WMDs in North Korea are not yet fully secured. By design under the UNSCR, the ROK, the Chinese, the U.S. and Russian forces are working together to locate, contain, and secure CW artillery shells and other munitions, as well as nuclear missiles and their components. The CW artillery shells and other missiles will all be stored on ROK territory until they are destroyed, per the UNSCR. The nuclear missiles and their components will eventually be shipped to Russia for dismantlement and destruction under International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring, while the chemical weapons will be secured in place under the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons monitoring until their elimination.
5. Currently, there remains over 18,000 American troops in North Korea. Part of this force is a small U.S. Army contingent helping to search for WMD and delivery systems, a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers unit, a Navy Seabee unit, a US Army Brigade Exploitation Task Force, 20th CRBN, and a USAF Red Horse Squadron to enable reconstruction, along with de-miners and a Civil Affairs and logistics unit to help provide humanitarian assistance.
6. The limitation on the presence of U.S. forces north of the 38th Parallel is part of the deal arranged in the UN Security Council to obtain Chinese and Russian buy-in for the Chapter VII UNSCR that established the actors and their roles for the post-conflict period.
7. In the aftermath of heavy fighting, helicopters provide the only readily available form of transport for personnel and humanitarian assistance. Efforts are still underway to reopen the Pyongyang Airport.
8. Currently, reports have come in that a large number of civilians have died or become severely sick in the vicinity of Wonsan. Figure 1 shows that Wonsan is both a missile facility and a suspected biological agent facility. Initial reports indicate that North Korean guerilla forces may have accidently released an unknown biological or chemical agent. The downwind hazard projects that off shore prevailing winds are moving from East to West towards Pyongyang.
9. US forces deployedpersonnel from the Brigade Exploitation Task Force and the 20th CBRN to Wonsan to validate this report have verified that a biological agent was released and that the number of North Korean military, civilian, and livestock deaths in and around the suspected biological facility are in the thousands.
Backdrop: FHA Hypothetical Current Conditions (Case Study 2):
1. It is August 2020. Small but highly organized guerrilla forces continue to operate in the central and northern regions of North Korea. Heavy rains have persisted for several weeks now raising concern about the level of flooding and its impact on an already weary North Korean populace.
2. Efforts are underway to help identify and relocate civilians in low lying areas to higher ground or to IDP camps located throughout North Korea.
3. During the heavy fighting, the Huichon Power Station (Figure 2),one of the dams along the Chongchon River (Figure 2) was severely damaged.This is a massive hydroelectric power station that provides North Korea, specifically Pyongyang, with much-needed electricity. US Corps of Engineers have been working feverously to repair or reinforce the power station to keep it from collapsing. The gates at the power station opened for several days to release water and pressure on the facility.The impact of this release has flooded several areas downstream.
4. The Chongchon is a river of North Korea having its source in the Rangrim Mountains of Chagang Province and emptying into the Yellow Sea at Sinanju. The river flows past Myohyang-san and through the city of Anju. Its total length is 217km (135mi), and it drains a basin of 9,553km2 (3,688sq mi).
5. North Korean guerilla forces see the collapse of this facility as an asymmetrical threat against US forces. The destruction of this facility will not only case massive flooding but it will also severe power to the city of Pyongyang; thus disrupting the interim government and the US/Colition forces.
6. The Pyongyang Airport is restored and 70 percent operational.
7. Current reports indicated North Korean guerilla forces have succeeded in using explosives to blow a huge hole in the Huichon Power Station releasing millions of gallons of water. Estimates indicate that the area downstream could be inundated by as much as 70 feet (21 meters) of water within hours of the breach. Downriver cities could be inundated with smaller, but still significant levels of flooding within 24-72 hours of the breach. The lives of at least 1.5 million people could be at risk. The ensuing flood damaged low lying farm lands, has killed or displaced hundreds of thousand farmers and critically affected power to the city of Pyongyang.
China’s Objective’s
1. Provide immediate life-saving efforts, alleviate suffering, and maintain human dignity to North Koreans affected by the flood.
2. Establish IDP Camps to relocate displaced populace.
3. Work with the UN to provide immediate food, water, and shelter to displaced populace.
4. Provide immediate medical attention to flood victims.
5. Provide Search and Rescue Teams, as needed.
6. Share vital humanitarian information fully with all partners (e.g. IOs; NGOs, POs, other Nations, etc).
7. Request and provide additional assets (e.g. helicopters, medical personnel, logistics support, and power generation, etc.) as quickly as possible.
8. Work with the US/Coalition Partners to support North Korean humanitarian assistance/disaster relief efforts fully.
9. Further develop their understanding, collaboration, and ability to operate in a HA/DR framework.
10. Avoid any potential conflict with US/Coalition Partners.
11. Deter as many North Korean refugees from crossing into China.China generally refuses international agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) access to North Koreans who cross its border; this and its periodic practice of deportation, have led many to ask about international law and the protection of refugees in China.
12. Maintain the integrity of its 50 mile buffer zone in North Korea.
US/Coalition Objective’s
1. Provide immediate life-saving efforts, alleviate suffering, and maintain human dignity to North Koreans affected by the flood.
2. Establish IDP Camps to relocate displaced populace.
3. Work with the UN to provide immediate food, water, and shelter to displaced populace.
4. Provide immediate medical attention to flood victims.
5. Provide immediate power generation to the Interim Government and airport in Pyongyang.
6. Provide Search and Rescue Teams, as needed.
7. Share vital humanitarian information fully with all partners (e.g. IOs; NGOs, POs, other Nations, etc).
8. Request and provide additional assets (e.g. helicopters, medical personnel, logistics support, and power generation, etc.) as quickly as possible.