Resource Shortage, Conflict and Local Management of Resources in Arid Sub-Saharan
Africa: The Cases of Sudan, Nigeria and Kenya
Jamesy Owen
“People must recognize the intimate and fundamental link between the environment, democracy, and peace in Africa and around the world.”
- Green Belt International
The relationship between environmental change and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa is complex. The first hypothesis of this paper is that rather than a simple causal relationship, the two affect one another in a vicious cycle in which the people of this region are caught. Change in the environment, whether natural or man-made, has had a negative effect on the region in many instances, leading to resource shortage in food, land, and water. This resource pressure has led to what Tesi refers to as "resource wars" and competition in The Environment and Development in Africa (2000). In many cases the fight over resources has degenerated into civil war, ravaging the country and causing further environmental devastation. Due to this phenomenon, forced migration occurs either to another area of the country or across the border, which further exacerbates resource pressure (and conflict) in surrounding areas, involving the region as a whole.
The "factors of vulnerability" such as dependence on agriculture and livestock, widespread poverty, and population growth that exist in sub-Saharan Africa mean that even a small change in the environment can intensify these problems, leading to a desperate struggle for resources. Mismanagement and unequal access to resources is an especially important factor of vulnerability. Some countries of the region that experience these climatic conditions and factors of vulnerability, like Kenya, have found some success in mitigating them. The second hypothesis of the paper is that the difference between these successful countries and those that are still rife with resource competition and conflict is local governance and programs for the management of natural resources. Because of the large climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa, the focus will be three case studies: Sudan, northern Nigeria and Kenya. The data analysis section will consist of the three case studies organized by the presence (or lack) of local governance where Sudan has a virtual vacuum of resource governance, Nigeria has only a national (not local) conservation programs, and Kenya has an extensive network of successful local resource management and conservation programs that are supported by the national government.
The main alternate explanation to the cause of conflict and migration in the region is the existence of social, economic, and political factors. However, the goal of this research is not to undermine possible political and social factors, but rather to extend a hypothesis about dynamics (environment, resource shortage) that may aggravate already existing tensions, or may lead to conflicts that have socio-political aspects as well. Resource depletion should be seen as a multiplier and intensifier of existing hostilities and competitions between different groups. The lack of access to resources will be discussed and will bring in a political aspect (government control over resources, lack of distribution). According to the study done by the German Advisory Council (2008), there has been some criticism leveled against the use of "international security" as a lens through which to view the relationship between the environment and conflict (as well as migration), but this paper will not focus on interpreting the data in this way. The concentration will be solely on the relationship between environment and conflict, and how these two factors may lead to migration. Resource shortage leading to conflict does affect the security of the people of the region and their propensity to migrate, but there will not be a focus on how this may affect international security (or the security of the U.S.), only the security of the region.
Research Design
According to Shively, when dealing with a small number of cases, random sampling may not be as effective as case studies of a few key examples, in which case there is "much more to be gained by choosing the cases to pick up on the relationship of interest" (103). The following design will be carried out using case studies on Sudan (Darfur), northern Nigeria and Kenya based on the presence (or lack) and success of local resource management and conservation programs. The case studies will be broken down into two parts: the first part will deal with data for three resource shortage indicators (water, food and land) and their connection to conflict in the region.
While an interrupted time series comparing resource data with conflict incidence would have been a more effective way of drawing causal connections between resource depletion and conflict, data for this kind of extensive analysis was simply not available for these cases, or for sub-Saharan Africa as a region. As a result, most of the reports dealing with this subject use more qualitative data analyses. Because of this problem, the data for resource indicators and conflict incidence have been gathered from what could be found in reports and the research of others, but are not systematic, longitudinal catalogs. The research needed in this area and innovative possibilities for gathering post-hoc climatic data will be discussed later.
The second section will deal with local resource management programs. The case studies will be compared to show that they have similar factors of vulnerability, but different rates of resource conflict, and it will be determined what factors may mitigate the causes of conflict. The hypothesis is that local governance of resources should be a major factor in the prevalence of conflict over resources. Kenya will be compared with Sudan and Nigeria to assess why the former has had more recent success in implementing programs for conservation of resources and dealing with environmental conflict. Because the success rate of programs cannot be quantified by their prevalence, a qualitative study to analyze their success is more useful. This study should provide a base for policy prescriptions using environmental initiatives like Kenya's "Green Belt Program" as models for African countries that face similar resource degradation and factors of vulnerability.
The previously mentioned food and water stress in a region where a large percentage of the population relies on agriculture and livestock for survival means that unequal access to and shortage of land/ resources lead inevitably to the search for supplies to replace those that are severely depleted and can lead to conflict over goods and "resource capture" (Homer-Dixon 1994, p.6). The chart put forth by Homer-Dixon demonstrates this effect visually:
(added)Movement and resource capture
Unfortunately, many in the region are in the same situation, with no resources to spare or give up to their neighbors. In order to assess the connection between resource shortage and conflict, the case studies of Nigeria, Sudan and Kenya will be used as a representation of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa and the Sahelian zone. The cases will be used to generalize the relationship between resource depletion, conflict and migration for countries that have similar characteristics. The reliability of this comparison is based on the climatic similarities between the countries of the region (low average annual rainfall, high levels of desertification), and similar "factors of vulnerability" (high population growth rates, significant levels of internal conflict, including civil war, unstable governments, high percentage of population reliance on rain-fed agriculture and livestock) (UNEP 2008). As demonstrated by its use in the United Nations Environment Programme's assessment of Africa, the countries in the Sahelian band represent a "zone," constituted of similar environmental and population characteristics (2008).
The three countries will serve as case studies in which the aforementioned resource shortage is compared chronologically with documentation of increasing amounts of conflict such as the civil war in Darfur and the serious violent conflicts in Nigeria during this same time period. According to the United Nations Environment Programme: drought, desertification and overpopulation have led to resource shortage in the Darfur region, leading northern nomads facing severe drought and desertification to migrate south to other areas of the region in search of water and land for their livestock (Leary 2008, p.23). Their movement has led to increased resource pressure and an escalation of already existing ethnic and tribal tensions (23). Similar events have taken place in Nigeria as farmers and herders in the northern part of the country have been forced to migrate south due to increased resource pressures, causing serious tensions and animosity because of increasingly diminished resources in the south being spread among a larger population.
According to the proposed hypothesis, there should be a correlation between the data on resource shortage, the search for supplemental sources, and a resulting inflammation of tensions and conflict. Since chronologically there is a fairly clear progression of events in sequence (resource shortage, movement, conflict, increased migration) there should not be too many issues of reversed causation in this initial chain reaction. Although prior enmities clearly exist between tribes and ethnicities in the region, there has been a serious increase in local violent conflict in the region in recent decades, and not much has changed in relations between the groups except for increased contact and tensions due to resource competition. In these studies an effort will be made to find other possible factors for increased ethnic tensions, apart from resource shortage, however, as stated previously, the intention of this research is to put forth a factor that exacerbates tensions, rather than being the sole, primary cause of them.
Data and Analysis
There is a serious lack of reliable data (or data in general) in sub-Saharan Africa regarding the documentation of environmental trends over time. Several documents, including reports from the UN, World Bank, and other NGOs and governmental organizations dealing with ecological trends in this region have mentioned this lack of information and as such, most studies have dealt with qualitative assessments and some more recent quantitative data. There are some data for blocks of time (not on yearly basis) on certain resource indicators such as annual rainfall, but the extensive data necessary for a detailed time series analysis is missing.
I. Sudan (Darfur):
The conflict in Darfur has a lot to do with resource competition and the lack of local resource governance coupled with national policies that directly facilitate and intensify resource based conflict. In order to assess the connection between environmental depletion and conflict, three indicators will be used to show the scarcity of resources over the years.
Resource shortage
First, because of the high percentage of those who subsist on rain-fed agriculture and livestock, rainfall is an accurate portrayal of access to water in the region. The following graph shows the large decrease in average rainfall over the period from 1946-2005 as documented by
UNEP (2008):
From the graph it can be seen that each region of Darfur experienced serious losses in rainfall, directly affecting the livelihoods of those that depend on it. Severe droughts have been endemic in Sudanese history, but in the last few decades they have increased in length and severity. While there were many cases of drought before the 1930s (if data from this early can be considered accurate in Sudan, where there was no official recorded data), Teklu discusses an increase in drought incidence, especially persistent and severe drought during 1980s and 1990s (2007). He discusses extensively the resulting decrease in livestock (due to death and forced sale) and diminishing production of agricultural products, especially cereal, which is a major staple and export for Sudanese farmers. As a result of this decrease in productivity, nutrition levels decreased while malnourishment increased. (Teklu 2007). There were severe droughts from the periods of 1967-73 and 1980-84 (Osman-Elasha 2008, p. 246). The drought of 1984 hit Sudan especially hard; sorghum and millet production decreased everywhere, in some areas by 90 percent or more, leading to massive price increases. Pastoralists suffered major livestock losses, including most cattle, as well as other animals during this period. Because of this, both groups (farmers and herders) lost income and with higher prices, could not afford to buy food. In Darfur, 800,000 people were at "high nutritional risk." Death rates increased by a large amount and migration rates swelled. (Osman-Elasha 2008, p. 240-3).
In addition to drought and famine, high levels of desertification have been causing decreases in productive land (and further increases in famine and poverty). Since 1930, the boundary between semi-desert and desert has moved southward up to 200 kilometers (UNEP 2008, p. 11). This means that more land has turned to dry, nutrient-deprived ground that is unable to sustain productive agricultural growth or feed cattle and other livestock. All of Sudan is at severe risk for further desertification and predictions claim that up to 20 percent loss in food production could result (UNEP 2008, 11). Desertification is leading to increased resource competition, especially when northern nomads migrate south in search of land for their livestock.
The region of Darfur has also experienced a staggering growth rate of 12% per annum from 1983 to 2005 (UNEP 2008, p. 83). Since this is much too large a percentage to indicate simply an increase in the birth rate, it is indicative of high levels of migrant inflow. According to the UNEP assessment of Sudan (2008), this inflow is mainly from northern migrants and others trying to escape resource shortages in the arid north (brought on by drought, famine, and land depletion). The northern "pastoralists" (herders, nomads) reacted to the drought and famine period of 1980-85 by "distress migrating" in great numbers to the south (which had more rainfall, less desertification and therefore, more productive land). Teklu presents a visual representation of this increased downward movement in the Darfur region (2007):
Along with high birth rates, this migrant inflow put pressure on already scarce resources in the south (due to drought and famine).
Conflict
Competition over scarce resources is a factor in the intensification of conflict between different tribes and ethnic groups within Darfur and Sudan as a whole. The migration of nomads from the north and their subsequent "capture" of resources from those in the south (whether directly through violence or indirectly through simple consumption) leads to competition and the increase of hostilities in the area, as demonstrated by the serious conflict seen in Darfur. As discussed above, the severe drought and famine of the 1970s and 1980s led to high migration rates from north to south and the following graph shows the conflict levels from before, during and after this time:
As can be seen, there was an increase in incidence of conflict, which began in the early 1960s and increased significantly during the period from 1970 to 2000. The increase in conflict corresponds in time to the most severe droughts and resulting famine periods from 1967-73 and 1980-84. Osman-Elasha points out that these droughts/famines were accompanied by an "increase in tribal conflict, particularly between livestock herders and subsistence farmers" (2008, p.247). The sustained increase may be symptomatic of continuing and prolonged tensions as people continue to struggle for survival and traditional hostilities escalate through retaliatory strikes and other mechanisms. Ethnic and religious differences between tribes in Darfur (and Sudan as a whole) have been main factors in clashes, but competition over resources and migration to escape resource scarcity bring these opposing groups into closer contact with one another, increasing resentment and direct confrontations. According to UNEP, the migration of northern nomads and farmers (in smaller numbers) from north to south is a historical phenomenon in Darfur, which shows that migration alone is not the primary factor in the increased incidence of conflict (2008). Since other factors such as historical animosity and tribal loyalty have not changed, the variable factor is the change in environmental factors. The effect of desertification, decreased rainfall, and lower productivity induce northerners to migrate in greater numbers to the south, which is also experiencing environmental degradation and resource shortage (at a lesser rate).
The data from which the previous graph was compiled show that of the 41 local conflicts documented for Darfur since 1930, an astonishing 33 were due to environmental concerns, including grazing and water rights and land possession. Three more dealt with administrative boundaries (most likely due to the desire for resource possession). Twenty-nine of these conflicts (71%) have occurred since 1980. (UNEP 2008, p. 247)
Local Governance
The question as to how these conflicts could have been resolved is one that concerns the hundreds of thousands that were killed, injured, displaced, and robbed of their livelihoods due to these conflicts. What could have been done? National and local governments should be the entities that come forward in these cases to help alleviate the suffering of their people and address its root causes. Institutional mechanisms for the alleviation of economic and social problems, such as credit markets and the legal system (police force, rule of law, courts, etc) help countries in the "developed world" deal with problems like resource competition. However, in Darfur (or Sudan as a whole), these institutions are virtually inexistent and the governmental vacuum further worsens the situation. (ENCOP 1995, p.130). There are some local tribal institutions in place that represent community efforts to alleviate the burdens of drought and famine, such as "social sanctioning systems" enforced by tribal leaders that regulate the use of natural resources within the community and "dispersed patterns of settlement" to maintain land productivity (Osman-Elasha 2008, p. 249). The problem with these systems is that they reinforce loyalty and interest only in the welfare of the tribe or ethnic group that one belongs to, leading to competition and hostilities between neighboring groups and also the increasing impossibility of mechanisms like dispersed settlement given land and population constraints. These reasons necessitate a national strategy that supports local resource management programs, but helps to facilitate cooperation between different groups and a comprehensive nation-wide conservation plan.