ACFI Monitoring Report – February2017

Background

  • In 2013-14 and 2014-15 annual real growth of about 3.4% and 7.4% in the daily average ACFI were higher than projections of 3.2% and 5.6%, respectively.
  • In 2015-16, the annual real growth was 5.2%. This was higher than the initial projection of 3.2%.
  • In 2016-17, annual real (or non indexed) growth was projected at about 1.7%. Effective indexation was 1.3% implying a nominal growth of 3.0%.These figures include changes to ACFI beginning 1 July 2016 and 1 January 2017.

Summary of February 2017Data

Average daily ACFI subsidyfor the period ofFebruary 2017(1 July 2016 to 28February 2017) was $172.51comparedto a budget of $172.40.

If real growth for the year continues at the rate observed year-to-date, annual growth will be 2.0%.This is slightly higher than the 2016 Budget projection of 1.7% (which takes account of 1 January 2017 changes).

Actual cumulative growth for the financial year to end of February 2017 compared to the same period in 2015-16 was 3.0% (equal toprojected cumulative growth of 3.0%).

  • By domain, the growth was 2.5% for ADL, 2.0% for BEH and 4.6% for CHC
  • Victoria, Tasmania and the Northern Territory had growth higher than 3.0%

Figure 1.Real Growth in ACFI [1]Figure 2.Nominal Growth in ACFI


Overall changes in ACFI

The following charts show overall trends in ACFI. Claims peaked sharply before 1 July 2016 and flattened in the subsequent months.Claiming amounts started to rise in November and has peaked in December prior to the 1 January 2017 ACFI changes taking effect.There was a slight decline following the 1 January changes.

Figure 3.Daily Average $/Day Trend by Month – 2016/17 Dollars

Table 1: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by State

State / Jul 2015 To Feb 2016 / Jul 2016 To Feb 2017 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
Projected National / $165.26 / $172.40 / 4.3% / 3.0%
Actual National / $165.26 / $172.51 / 4.4% / 3.0%
NSW / $162.72 / $169.50 / 4.2% / 2.8%
VIC / $168.73 / $177.61 / 5.3% / 3.9%
QLD / $162.89 / $169.72 / 4.2% / 2.9%
WA / $170.48 / $177.38 / 4.0% / 2.7%
SA / $166.72 / $172.21 / 3.3% / 2.0%
TAS / $158.53 / $168.09 / 6.0% / 4.7%
ACT / $164.37 / $165.58 / 0.7% / -0.6%
NT / $162.57 / $174.45 / 7.3% / 5.9%

*The difference between the year to date projected national figure presented in the table and the annual projection of 1.7% relates to the month of the report. (ie this shows July 2016 to February 2017relative to July 2015 to February 2016whereas the annual projection shows July 2016 until June 2017.)

Table 2: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by Remoteness

Remoteness / Jul 2015 To Feb 2016 / Jul 2016 To Feb 2017 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
Major Cities of Australia / $168.97 / $176.07 / 4.2% / 2.9%
Inner Regional Australia / $157.77 / $165.40 / 4.8% / 3.5%
Outer Regional Australia / $156.02 / $163.07 / 4.5% / 3.2%
Remote Australia / $130.27 / $144.94 / 11.3% / 9.8%
Very Remote Australia / $143.29 / $151.01 / 5.4% / 4.0%

Table 3: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by Organization Type

Organization Type / Jul 2015 To Feb 2016 / Jul 2016 To Feb 2017 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
Not-For-Profit / $158.53 / $166.04 / 4.7% / 3.4%
For-Profit / $178.09 / $184.44 / 3.6% / 2.2%
Government / $145.91 / $152.71 / 4.7% / 3.3%

Table 4: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by Provider Size

Provider Size* / Jul 2015 To Feb 2016 / Jul 2016 To Feb 2017 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
0-41 / $137.17 / $145.15 / 5.8% / 4.5%
41-74 / $154.01 / $161.21 / 4.7% / 3.3%
74-131 / $160.18 / $168.32 / 5.1% / 3.7%
131-499 / $163.64 / $171.41 / 4.8% / 3.4%
500-999 / $169.22 / $176.30 / 4.2% / 2.8%
1000+ / $171.99 / $177.82 / 3.4% / 2.1%

*Based on full time equivalent residents per year for 2015-16. Only includes providers active during July 2015.

Table 5: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by ACFI Category

Average ACFI Category Subsidy / Jul 2015 To Feb 2016 / Jul 2016 To Feb 2017 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
ADL / $87.40 / $90.96 / 4.1% / 2.5%
BEH / $26.75 / $27.71 / 3.6% / 2.0%
CHC / $51.11 / $53.84 / 5.4% / 4.6%

Table 6: Cumulative proportion of total days by ACFI Level and ACFI Category

ADL / BEH / CHC
ACFI Level / Jul 2015 To Feb 2016 / Jul 2016 To Feb 2017 / Change ADL / Jul 2015 To Feb 2016 / Jul 2016 To Feb 2017 / Change BEH / Jul 2015 To Feb 2016 / Jul 2016 To Feb 2017 / Change CHC
H / 53.2% / 56.5% / 3.2% / 62.3% / 64.2% / 1.9% / 55.3% / 59.6% / 4.3%
M / 30.2% / 29.7% / -0.5% / 20.8% / 20.5% / -0.3% / 25.0% / 25.0% / 0.0%
L / 15.7% / 13.2% / -2.5% / 11.9% / 11.0% / -1.0% / 16.1% / 12.7% / -3.4%
N / 0.9% / 0.6% / -0.2% / 5.0% / 4.3% / -0.7% / 3.7% / 2.7% / -0.9%

Table 7: Cumulative proportion of total days by ADL Scores and ADL Question

Jul 2015 To Feb 2016 / Jul 2016 To Feb 2017
ADL Question / A / B / C / D / A / B / C / D
Nutrition / 4.5% / 18.5% / 59.0% / 18.0% / 3.7% / 16.3% / 62.9% / 17.2%
Mobility / 2.7% / 4.9% / 36.8% / 55.6% / 2.0% / 3.7% / 35.6% / 58.7%
Personal Hygiene / 0.6% / 6.8% / 11.1% / 81.6% / 0.4% / 6.1% / 9.9% / 83.6%
Toileting / 5.2% / 13.4% / 13.8% / 67.6% / 3.9% / 11.9% / 13.7% / 70.5%
Continence / 16.0% / 3.1% / 5.1% / 75.9% / 14.1% / 2.6% / 4.6% / 78.7%

Table 8: Cumulative proportion of total days by BEH Scores and BEH Question

Jul 2015 To Feb 2016 / Jul 2016 To Feb 2017
BEH Question / A / B / C / D / A / B / C / D
Cognitive Skills / 10.3% / 28.3% / 32.9% / 28.5% / 9.2% / 28.0% / 34.4% / 28.4%
Wandering / 77.2% / 6.7% / 4.5% / 11.7% / 79.8% / 6.0% / 4.1% / 10.2%
Verbal / 12.9% / 12.3% / 17.9% / 56.9% / 11.9% / 11.6% / 18.3% / 58.2%
Physical / 25.8% / 14.4% / 16.5% / 43.3% / 25.5% / 14.6% / 17.5% / 42.4%
Depression / 38.5% / 30.1% / 16.2% / 15.3% / 36.6% / 30.3% / 16.9% / 16.3%

Table 9: Distribution of claim days for the CHC

Rating / Proportion
Nil / 3.67%
Low / 16.64%
Med / 24.41%
High / 55.27%

July 2015 to February 2016

Q12
Q11 / A / B / C / D
A / 0.62% / 0.24% / 0.94% / 0.17%
B / 2.81% / 5.32% / 7.16% / 8.78%
C / 5.00% / 4.50% / 8.21% / 12.22%
D / 1.82% / 7.93% / 25.47% / 8.79%
Rating / Proportion
Nil / 2.80%
Low / 12.78%
Med / 22.38%
High / 62.04%

July 2016 to February 20171
Appraised before 1 July 2016

Q12
Q11 / A / B / C / D
A / 0.36% / 0.15% / 0.73% / 0.13%
B / 1.47% / 3.05% / 5.00% / 7.41%
C / 2.71% / 2.32% / 5.26% / 9.77%
D / 0.97% / 4.73% / 20.10% / 6.65%

Appraised between 1 July 2016 and 31 December 2016

Q12
Q11 / A / B / C / D
A / 0.13% / 0.05% / 0.16% / 0.11%
B / 0.56% / 1.31% / 2.33% / 3.89%
C / 0.91% / 0.99% / 2.57% / 4.91%
D / 0.29% / 1.81% / 3.26% / 4.65%
Rating / Proportion
Nil / 2.65%
Low / 13.10%
Med / 36.09%
High / 48.16%

Appraised on or after 1 January 2017

Q12
Q11 / A / B / C / D
A - No Assistance / 0.01% / 0.00% / 0.01% / 0.00%
B - Assistance / 0.13% / 0.19% / 0.40% / 0.42%
C - Injections / 0.00% / 0.01% / 0.03% / 0.08%
Rating / Proportion
Nil / 0.78%
Low / 25.78%
Med / 34.38%
High / 39.06%
  1. Since 1 July 2016, there have been three ACFI regimes that a resident may have been appraised under; this depends on the date the resident was last appraised. Given this, the data for 2016-17 is split into three groups.

Table 10: Actual Average ACFI per day – Monthly and Cumulative

ACFI / Jul 16 / Aug 16 / Sep 16 / Oct 16 / Nov 16 / Dec 16
Monthly ACFI / $172.51 / $172.53 / $172.54 / $172.46 / $172.64 / $173.07
Cumulative ACFI / $172.51 / $172.52 / $172.53 / $172.48 / $172.50 / $172.59
ACFI / Jan 16 / Feb 16 / Mar 17 / Apr 17 / May 17 / Jun 17
Monthly ACFI / $172.51 / $172.20
Cumulative ACFI / $172.56 / $172.51

Figure 4.ACFI Category - Change in Proportion of Total Care Days Year to Date – Year on Year*

*Compares change in proportion of care days for 1 July to28February between 2015/16 and 2016/17

*All $ values are based on ACFI Question Responses,

[1]2015/16 projection was revised up to 5.2% in May 2016 Budget

2016/17 actual annual estimates is based on both 2015 MYEFO and 2016 Budget measures