Accuracy Factor, in Election Polls, 242-244 , 262 N.11

Index

ABC News, 231

Absolute change, 24-25

Accuracy factor, in election polls, 242-244 , 262 n.11

Achievement tests, 180

Acquiescence bias, in surveys, 126

Age, as variable, 130-31, 144-45, 146- 48, 151, 154-56

AS&R Master File, 200; weighting for, 227

Aggregate data, 199-201 , 204-5

AIDS, knowledge of, testing for, 168-70

Aiken, Howard, 79-80

Almeida, Donald B., 193

Alpha test, 161-62

American Soldier, The (Stouffer), 165-66

Apportionment, census data for, 208-9

Archival records, analysis of, 182-83

Aregood, Rich, 191

ASCII, 96, 100

AS&R Master File (FBI), 200

Atanasoff, John Vincent, 80

Atanasoff-Berry Computer, 80

Atlanta Constitution, 19 , 212-13

Audit Bureau of Circulations (ABC), 33

Average. See Mean

Babbage, Charles, 79-80

Balanced questions, in surveys, 124-25

Ballot, secret: in election polls, 225, 234; as voting method, 245-46

Bandwagon effect, of media polls, 251

Barlett, Donald L., 193, 196

Base: in data-analysis percentages, 21- 24, 26, 140; use in CPI calculations, 30

Baseline, use in measuring, 40-41

BASIC, 82, 108-9, 111

Batch computing, 84

Batten, James K., 6

Baudot code, 97

Berkeley arrestees, study of, 156-58, 166-67

Berry, Clifford E., 80

Bias, in sampling, 114-15, 126, 217-18

Bibliographic databases, 188

Binary system, 41, 79-81, 82, 96

Bishop, George, 122

Black, Gordon, 230, 245, 252

Blacks, surveys of, 115, 143

Bok, Derek, 1

Bok, Sissela, 171

Boolean logic, 188-90

Boorstin, Daniel, 262 n.23

Brack, Andrew, 37-38

Breslin, Jimmy, 4

Bulletin boards, computer, 187, 192

Bumper sticker experiment, 175, 178-79

Butterfield, Herbert, 12

Calculators, use for, 111

Callbacks, telephone, 134-35, 216-17, 230

Campbell, Donald T., 171-72, 179, 182-83

Campbell's demons, 180-82, 183

Carolina Poll (1988), 223-24, 226, 227, 228

Categorical (Nominal) measurement, 62

CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing), 134

Causation, 40, ; 53-55, 164, 165; assumption in Miami Herald survey, 149-50, 158; tested in field experiments, 170-75

CBS News, 144-45; election polls, 220- 21, 229, 230-31

CD-ROM, 187, 206, 209

CENDATA (Census Bureau), 206

Census, 33, 63-69, 199-200, 222, 227; data compared with poll samples, 214- 15; geographic structure, 206-8; use in sampling techniques, 110-14

Census Bureau, 77, 239 ; access to data, 197, 203-13; on-line information service, 206

Central tendency, 51-57, 83

Chi-square, 57-60, 67-69, 91, 147

Chronbach's Alpha test, 161-62

Circulation, newspaper, 7, 31-32, 37-38, 44, 49-50; SPSS analysis, 86-91

Cluster methods, 109-10, 113-14

COBOL, 82

Cohn, Victor, 56

Coincidence, as alternate inference, 56- 61

Coin flipping, probability, 69-70

Comparisons, use in reporting survey results, 143-45

Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI), 134

Computers, 3, 7, 19, 84-100, 167, 186-87; communication among, 96-97, 100, 186; history of, 77-84; index construction, 160-62; languages, 82- 83; mainframe, 77, 83, 84-85, 97-99; off-line retrieval, 193-94; percentage analysis, 142; personal (PCs), 83, 84, 99-100, 111, 205-6; research of public databases, 192, 238-40; SAS and SPSS programs, 93-94; telephone interviewing, 134. See also Databases

Conant, James Bryant, 1

Confidence level, in sampling, 72-75

Consensus formation, 246-47, 253

Consumer Price Index (CPI), 27-30, 34, 36

Content analysis, 182, 190-91

Contingency tables, 163

Continuous (Interval) measurement, 62-63

Control groups, in field experiments, 172-73, 175-80, 181, 184-85

Control (Test factor), 151

Converse, Philip, 121

Cook, Thomas D., 171-72, 181

Corless, Inge, 168-70

Correlation coefficients, 33, 65-67, 161, 163

Correlation matrix, 160-64

Couch, Arthur S., 257 n.4

Covariance, 40, 53, 65

Cranberg, Lawrence, 5-7

Crespi, Irving, 216, 220, 223, 226, 228

Cross-tabulation, 54-56, 196, 204, 205; from survey question responses, 124- 25; three-way, 145-48

Curve fitting, of trend data, 33

Dade County, Fla., school insurance story as theoretical model, 15-17

Dallas Morning News, 19

Data: categorical, 20-21, 67-69; collection, 5, 8, 132-38; continuous, 20-38; convoluted, 34; non-attitudes as, 121-22; storage, 8, 79, 97-100

Data analysis, 5, 8, 19, 20-38; of surveys, 138, 139-67; use of database system, 85-94

Databases, 186-213; complex structures, 196-97; content analysis, 190-91; dirty-data problem, 201-3; programs, 85-96; public records in, 238-40

Data processing, 8-10

Data-Text, 91, 193, 257 n.4

dBase (computer program), 195-96

DCB (data control block), 98-99

Decimal point, importance of, 22-23

Dedman, Bill, 212-13

Delli Carpini, Michael X., 249

Democracy: effect of election polls on, 245-46, 253; pluralism and truth, 14

Democratic Party, 216, 223, 229

Demographics: of poll's samples, 214-15, 221; survey questions on, 130-32

Dennis, Everette, E., x

Deprivation survey, relative, 165-66

Detrending, 28-38

Detroit Free Press: early-projection voting system, 232-35; study on riot participants, 18, 53-56, 114, 129, 162-63

Deviation, 59, 71. See also Standard deviation

Dillman, Don A., 133, 136

Dispositions, relation to properties and behavior, 152-56

Distribution, statistical, 43, 47-51, 73

Don't knows. See Non-attitudes

Dow Jones Industrial Average, 23-26

Draft, military (Vietnam era), attempt at randomization, 184-85, 212

EBCDIC (Extended Binary-Coded Decimal Interchange Code), 96

Economics, first law of, 105-6

Education, 183, 211, 212; compared with income, 159, 163; as variable, 131, 144-45, 150, 151-52, 158

Elections, 212, 214; effect of polls on outcome, 244-53; models for election- night turnouts, 230-35. See also Voting

Election surveys, 142, 214-35, 241-53; complaints against, 242-46; election- night projections, 230-35; 1948, 229; 1968, 244-45; 1976, 145-46; 1988, 242, 243, 262 n.11. See also Exit polls

ENIAC, 80-81

EOF (end of file) marker, 98

EPA (Enviromental Protection Agency), database on toxic waste, 202-3

Equal probability rule, in sampling, 102, 103-4, 109, 113

Error margin, 72, 219

Evaluation research, 183-85

Exit polls, 125, 230, 234-35, 237, 249, 250

Face-to-face interviews. See Personal interviews

Factor analysis, 162-63,

FBI Uniform Crime Reports, 200

Federal Information Processing Standard code, 197

Felgenhauer, Neil, x

Field experiments, 168-85; designing, 172-75; training for, 170-71

Fields, in SPSS, 87 ; Files, 94-96, 196-97; nonrectangular, 94-96, 197-98; rectangular, 94, 196, 198; SAS management of, 92-93

Files, hierarchical (nested), 94-96, 198-99, 200; census files as, 206-8; EPA databases as, 200

First Amendment, 14 , 235

Fisher, Carl, 57-60

FORTRAN, 82, 83, 91

Framework (software), 213

Frederickson, Ted, ix-x

Frequencies, 88-89, 118-19, 195

Gallop, George, 116, 218, 240, 242

Gallop Poll, 123, 242, 243, 262 n.11; pre-election polls, 219-24, 225-26, 230, 252

Gannett Center for Media Studies, 193

Gender gap, in voting behavior, 216

General linear model (GLM), 37-38, 65

General Social Survey, 142-43

Germond, Jack, 243

Gollin, Albert E., 117, 244

Government Printing Office, 191

Greene, Juanita, 115, 155, 212

Harris Survey, 123, 230, 242, 243, 262 n.11

Harvard University, 79-80

Hawthorne effect, 175-77, 179, 183

Hierarchical files. See Files, hierarchical

Hierarchy, geographical, use in census data, 207-8

Hispanic population, census data on, 209-10

Histogram, 44-49

Historical Statistics of the United States, 30

Hollerith, Herman, 77, 79

Holmes, Oliver Wendell,” 14

Honeywell, Inc., 80

Hopper, Grace Murray, 80, 81-82

Household sampling, 114-15, 216; personal interviews, 109-10; telephone surveys, 103-4, 106-7, 226-27

Housing situation, relationship to disposition toward violence, 153-56

Hypothesis, 11, 15-17 , 56; testing, 17-19 , 53, 165, 170-75

IBM, 78-79, 81, 83; mainframe computers, 96-99; 7090, 81, 91, 193; 360, 194

Income, 52-53, 131, 158, 211; compared with education, 159, 163

Index construction, 28, 124, 125, 159-67

Index numbers, use in statistical analysis, 34, 36-37

Inflation: adjusting for, 27-30; effect on Dow Jones Average, 25

Instrumentation, and experimental validity, 181

Intelligence, 39; use of histogram to plot, 44-45

Interest groups, 122, 240-41

Interpretation, after-the-fact, 165-67

Interval (Continuous) measurement, 62-63

Intuitive sense, use in statistics, 40

Jackson, John E., 249

Jacquard loom, use of punched cards, 79

Jaspin, Elliot, 192-93, 194-95, 237

Job Control Language (JCL), 83, 97, 98

John Henry effect, 181

Johnson, Maria Miro, 237

Johnson, Michael L., x

Journalism programs/schools,> 1-2 5

Journalists, 1-2 ; assumptions in survey questioning, 122-23; income comparisons, 28-30

Kennedy, George, 115

King, Martin Luther, 18-19 , 179-80

Kish, Leslie, 113

Kiska, Tom, 233-34

Knopes, Carol, 202

Kotzbauer, Bob, 76-77, 78

Labor Statistics Bureau, 27-28, 30, 36

Lawrence, David, 10

Leaners, in polls, 223, 225-26, 230, 252

Lewis, I. A. (Bud), 4

Lippmann, Walter, 9

Literary Digest, 217-18, 242

Local area network (LAN), 97

Logic circuits (in computers), 80-81

Luedtke, Kurt, 233

McIntosh, Shawn, 201

McReynolds, Louise, 194

McReynolds, Louise, 194

Maidenberg, Mike, 116, 232-34

Maidenburg, Ben, 76

Mail and Telephone Surveys: The Total Design Method (Dillman), 133, 136

Mail surveys, 116-17, 132, 136-38

Mani pulation, in field experiments, 174-75

Marginals, 57, 58, 118-19, 139-44, 146- 48

“Market Basket,” 27-28

Mark I, 79-80, 81-82

Mean(s) (Average[s]), 34, 83, 88, 89, 257 n.3; comparison of, 60, 196; as measure of central tendency, 41, 51- 53; regression towards the, 180-81; use in measuring variance, 42-45

Median(s), 34, 51-53

Memory (computer term), 80, 84

Menu, computer, 84, 93

Miami Herald: pre-riot poll, 19 , 146-55, 158, 179-80; study on real estate values, 212

Michigan Survey Research Center, 143

Middle-category problem, 123-24

Milgram, Stanley, 117

Militancy, as variable: study of, 147- 53, 158, 159, 163

Mill, John Stuart, 171

Milwaukee Journal, 239

Minority status, as a dichotomous variable, 41

Mixed-mode surveys, 137-38

Mode, as measure of central tendency, 51-53

Models, 9-11 , 33, 37-38, 226; reality testing, 12-19

Modems, 97, 100, 186-87, 192

Moore, Tom, 85

Morin, Rich, 4 , 194

Morris, Dwight, 213

Mortality (Selective retention), of subjects in experiments, 181, 183-84

Muller, J. H., 79

Name recognition, in polls, 244-45

National Opinion Research Center, 128-29

NBC News, 249-50

Neft, David, 231

Negative correlation, 65

Nested files. See Files, hierarchical

Newspaper Advertising Bureau, 130

Newspapers: credibility studies, 10-11 ; election-night projections, 230, 232-34; market research, 36 . See also Circulation, newspaper; newspapers by name

New York Times, 235, 252

Nexis News Plus, 190

Nie, Norman, 91

Nieman program (Harvard), 2

No answers (in surveys), 139-42. See also Refusals

Nominal (Categorical) measurement, 62

Non-attitudes (in surveys), 121, 139-42, 149

Nonreactive (Oddball) measurements, in field experiments, 182-83

Nonvoters: in election poll samples, 218, 219-23, 229; undecided as, 226

Norman, Jim, 4

Norusis, Marija, 93

Numbers, comparison of, 20-21

Oddball (Nonreactive) measurements, in field experiments, 182-83

Off-line retrieval, of database records, 187-88, 190, 192-96, 204

One-night polls, dangers of, 229-30

On-line retrieval, of database records, 187, 188-90, 191-92

Open-ended questions, in survey research, 120-21

Openness, in reality testing, 13, 17

Operationalization, in reality testing, 13, 16 18

Order effect, in surveys, 126-27; in election polls, 223-24

OS/2 (computer operating system), 99

Oversampling, 102

Panagakis, Nick, 226

Paradox (computer program), 137, 195

Parsimony, in reality testing, 13-14

Partial correlation coefficient, 163

Parties Excluded from Federal Procurement (database), 192

Passivity, journalistic, 3-4, 12

Paul, Nora M., 186

Payne, Stanley, 126

PC-File (computer program), 137, 195

PCs. See Computers: personal

Percentages, 21-27, 54-56, 94, 147; analysis of, 140-42

Perceptual structures, as theoretical models for data, 9-10

Perry, Paul, 220, 225-26

Personal interviews, 127-29, 132-33, 242; election polls, 218, 222, 225

Pettigrew, Thomas, 179

Phillips, Bill, 168

Player piano, 79

Polyani, Michael, 17

Population growth, data on, 30-33

Population sampling, 102, 110

Positive correlation, 65

Possibility samples, 117

Powers, James, 78

Precincts, as samples in election projections, 231, 232-33, 234

Precision journalism: defined, 2-3 , 6-7

Press, freedom of the, 238

Presser, Stanley, 121-22, 123, 125-27

Pretest-posttest design, , 176, 178

Price, H. Douglas, 8

Primacy effect, 126, 224

Primary elections, 248, 251

Privacy, invasion of, 237-40

Privacy Act of 1974, 239

Probability, 41, 57, 58, 60-61, 70; in sampling, 102, 103-4, 109, 113

Probability sampling, 69-73, 135-36, 216

Production rates, factory, experiment on, 175-77, 179

Properties, relation to dispositions, 152-56

Psychological testing, 125

Public access, databases created for, 187, 188-89

Public Law 94-171, 209

Public opinion, defining, 240-41

Public opinion polls, 20-21, 101, 139-67, 191, 241-53

Public records, 198; off-line retrieval, 187-88, 192-96

Public-use sample, of census data, 205

Punched cards, 77-78, 84

“Pygmalion effect,” 175

Quantitative analysis, of variance, 39

Quantitative information, in survey research, 120

Question asking, 118-32; in election polls, 219-21, 223-24, 235

Quota sampling, 135-36, 216

Race relations, 19 , 102

Race riots: theories on, 17-19 . See also Detroit Free Press; Miami Herald

Radicals, student: follow-up study, 156-58, 166-67

Random access memory (RAM), 96

Random deviation, 59

Random digit dialing (RDD), 107-9, 137

Random error, 33

Random selection, 104, 110-12, 117, 184-85

Rate: conversion of raw numbers into, 21-23; use of percentage base, 56

Ratio, 42, 62-63

Raw frequencies, 118-19

Reality testing, of theoretical models, 12-19

Recency effect, in surveys, 126, 223-24

Record matching, in databases, 195

Records, computer, 86-87, 94-96, 238. See also Files

Reference point, use in measuring variance, 42-45

Referendum model, in survey research, 119-20, 122, 124, 240-41

Refusals (in surveys): as error source, 217-18, 222; in exit polls, 234-35. See also No answers

Regression, statistical, 36-38, 66-67, 180-81

Republican Party, 216, 223, 229

Resentful demoralization, 181

Responses, survey, 123, 125-26, 133, 142, 230; closed-end, 121; order, 126-27; telephone, 105-6, 107

Robinson, John, 114

Roper Center of the University of Connecticut, 191

Rosenberg, Morris, 146, 150-51, 152, 155, 165-66, 167

Rosenthal, Robert, 175

Rowen, James, 237-38, 239

Royster, Vermont, 3

Sampling, 3, 60, 69-75, 77, 101-17; for additional census data, 210; demographic, 214; in election polls, 216-23, 230, 234; in field experiments, 169; quota and probability, 135-36. See also Probability sampling

Sampling error, 33, 72-75, 117, 142; chi-square as measuring, 59; in election polls, 215, 216-23

Sanders, Larry, 202

SAS (Statistical Analysis System), 83, 86, 87, 97, 99, 196; compared with SPSS, 91-94; database research, 201, 202; files, 197, 198-99, 201; interpreting census data, 206, 211; percentage analysis, 142; program for random digit dialing, 108-9; provision for missing values, 94-95; weighting, 102, 227

Schuman, Howard, 118-19, 121-22, 123, 125-27

Scientific method, 5-7 , 8 , 165; 9-14 ; rules for experimentation, 171- 72, 253

Selective retention (Mortality), of subjects in experiments, 181, 183-84

Self-administered questionnaires (SAQs), 125, 126, 127-30, 132

Sequential weighting, for election polls, 227-28 Serendipity, 165-66

Shine, Neal, 233

Significance tests, 60-61, 67, 164-65. See also Chi-square

Skewness, as distribution form, 47, 49

Skip interval (sampling technique), 110

Smoothing, of data, 34-35, 36, 44-45

Social class, as variable, 144-45

Socioeconomic status, as combined variable, 159

Sperry Rand Corp., 80

Sperry Univac, 78

Spreadsheets, 85, 197

SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences), 33, 83, 85-94, 97, 194, 196; compared with SAS, 91-94; and federal coding, 99; files, 198-99; index construction, 161; interpreting census data, 206; percentage analysis, 142; provision for missing values, 94-95; weighting, 102, 227

Standard deviation, 43-46, 73, 83, 88, 89

Standard error, in sampling, 73-75

Standard Rate and Data Service, 33

Stanley, Julian, 179

Statistical Abstract of the United States, 29-30

Statistical analysis, 39-75, 84, 196. See also SAS; SPSS

Statistical tests, in index construction, 161-62

Status consistency, 159

Steele, James B., 193, 196

Stem and leaf chart, 49-51

STF (Summary Tape Files), of census data, 210

Stouffer, Samuel, 165-66, 172-73, 177-78

Stratifying, in sampling, 114

Strentz, Herbert, x

Student t (T-test), 60

SuperCalc4 (computer program), 197

SYSTAT (computer program), 34

Tables, 148-51; three-way, 151-56, 165, 167; two-way, 167

Tabulator (punch card machine), 78

Tape drive, desktop, 97

Tapes, computer, 97-100, 193-94; census data on, 203-4, 205, 206, 208-9

Tasker, Fred, 194

Telephone surveys, 101, 103-9, 132, 134-35, 137-38; bias in sampling techniques, 114-15; design weights, 226-27; as election poll technique, 216-17, 218, 222, 225; interviewer training, 132-33; responses, 125, 127- 29

Television: election predictions, 230- 31, 234-35, 237, 249, 252; reporting of Dow Jones Average, 25

Test factor (Control), 151

Testing effect, on participants, 176-77

“Times as,” in percentage difference, 26-27

Times Mirror, 11

“Times more,” in percentage difference, 26-27

Timing, in election polls, 229-30

Tocqueville, Alexis de, 240-41

Toxic waste, EPA database on, 202-3

Training: for experiments, 170-71; for surveys, 132-33

Trends, 28-38

Truncation, of percentages, 23-24

Truth, tentativeness of, in reality testing, 13

TSO (time-sharing option), 84

T-test (Student t), 60

Tukey, John W., 34, 47, 49-51

Undecided: in election polls, 224-26, 230, 252. See also Non-attitudes

Underage drinking, field research on, 170-71, 173-74

Uniform Crime Reports, 201-2, 204

Urban, Christine, 7

USA Today, 7-8 , 84, 97, 116, 142, 230; analysis procedures, 63-69; 1988 final election poll, 252, 262 n.25; reading of EPA databases, 202-3; survey question on age, 130-31; television screening survey, 127, 137-38

Validity, 133, 142

Values: expected, 41, 57-58; missing in databases, 94-95; observed, 57-58

Variable(s), 41, 53-56, 144-63, 174, 176; in AS&R Master File, 200-201; binary/dichotomous, 41; continuous, 42-51, 61-69, 127-29, 160-61; creating new from old, 159-64; in cross-tabulation percents, 54-56; dependent, 153-56, 163; independent, 124-25, 156-58, 163; in Miami Herald survey, 147, 149; recognition by SAS and SPSS, 87- 90; as suppressors or distorters, 146- 53; weighting in sampling, 102; in Wyoming census case, 64-65

Variance, 39-40, 56-61, 72-73, 83; measuring methods, 40-75

Venn diagrams, 188-90

Voting: methods, 245-46; tactics on basis of poll information, 248-51, 262 n.19; turnout projections, 231-32. See also Elections

Vu-Text Service, 187, 188-89, 191

Wallace, Julia D., 19

Wall Street Journal, 23

Washington Post, 212

Wattenberg, Ben, x

Weaver, David H., 28-30

Webb, Eugene J., 182-83

Weighting, 102, 106-7, 115; in election polls, 220, 222, 226-28

Wilhoit, G. Cleveland, 28-30

Wolfe, Tom, 4

Women's movement, effect on voting behavior, 216

Word processing, 76, 84, 85-86, 100

WYLBUR (computer editing system), 84

Wyoming, census data analysis, 63-69

XEDIT (computer editing system), 84

Yankelovich, Daniel, 144-45

Z-scores, 38