Project type: / Exploratory research projects
Project code: / ID_796
SOLUTIONS FOR THE PREDICTION AND MINIMIZATION OF ECOSYSTEM RISKONROMANIA’S TERRITORY BASED ON DIAGNOSIS METHODS OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES EFFECTS ON ENVIRONMENT
Abstract: The rapid economic growth featuring the last period, world level development of the smoke pipe’s ecponomy affected in an unprecedented way almost everything that surround us. Overall acomplishment of sustainable development objectives assumes that economic policies to be designed according to environmental considerations and economic functions of natural resources. Therefore, decision makers need information on the risk components which affect the ecosystems from romania. The risc provision process has to be made on a scientificacly substantiated framework that take in account the specific of romanian economy and the real envrionmental conditions of our country. The scientific work undertaken by the research team aims to achieve the following main objectives: research on the events which generate the ecosystem risk involved by the dynamic of the economic activity, analysis of the structural-quality changes of the enevironmental components, the qualitative and quantitative dimensions of ecosystem risk prediction, analysis of ecosystem degradation rate, elaboration of the model of synthetic risk indicator, identification of the soltions for decreasing the ecosystem risk. The scientific work will be deepended by: identifying the statistical categories used for enlightening the environmental effects of economic activities, use of natural resources for economic activities, variation in natural resource stocks, pollutants and waste emisions and outleting, natural capital restoration, monitorization of pollutant factors, polution mitigation, quatification of risk components, opportunity losses and total losses, prediction of ecosystem’s abilities.
The rapid economic growth featuring the last period, world level development of the smoke pipe’s ecponomy affected in an unprecedented way almost everything that surround us. The attention was focused by a large number of individuals, able to analyze the issue (scientists, researchers, professors, engineers, economists, students) has concetrate their forces in order to find viable solutions that will staisfy the present needs without compormising the chance of future generations to satisfy thei needs,
In a consequent way, in last years, there were specialized bodies which focused their activities on estimating the risk that influence the ecosystems, especially their losses (World Bank, European Environmental Agency).
The research team had in the last five years a continuous documentation and research activity regarding the economy-environment inter-conditioning. More than 500 papers were analysed on sustainable development, in general, and ecosystem risk in special. The main aspects which were identified envisage the followings> environmental protection (environmental protection as science, the notions of natural environment, geographic environment, landscape, systemic approach of the environment), ecosystem’s structure (natural system, socio-economic system), global and regional environmental protection issues (present problems of human structures, demographic explosion and urban explosion, negative effects of social, economic, and political structures degradation, present profound problems of the natural systems that are under human influence, disfunctions resulted from the Earth internal dynamic, geomorphologic processes, hydro climatic interactions, changes of vegetal and animal life forms), resources of the lithosphere, energy crisis, anthropical relief, protected geologic and geomorphologic objectives, risk geomorphologic processes, the atmosphere, air pollutants, ozone layer, acid rain, green house gases, hydrosphere, protected hydrologic objectives, oceans, marine reservations, soils and their role in the ecosystems, energy flows and substances circle in the biosphere, contemporary agricultural landscapes and issues of optimizing their use, influence of natural calamities on environment and human activities, protection and prognosis issues.
The topic proposed by us has a significant contribution to the knowledge development in this field since the economic decision respecting the spirit of sustainable development can’t be substantiated only by pure economic analyze, but by takking in consideration the complex processes that pursue the emergence, at micro and macro levels, and also the interconnections between them within the ecologic-economic systems.
On the base of literature review undertaken we concluded that there is a large number of approaches, for both conceptual and practical levels, regarding the ways to identifz useful information in a processes of risk quatification that envisage ecosystems in general. Therefore, could be considered as determinants five categories of information: expresing the state of environmental factors (water, air, soil, biodiversity); expressing the pressures on the envrionment by sectors considered as pressure sources; estimation of expenses made for avoiding pressures; assessment of environmental advantages and losses measure according to environmental pressure; expressing sttandards that could rule pressures.
On the base of former researches undertaken by the research team one concluded that the first four categories of information are not enough substantiated regarding the estimation of ecosystem risk. We will propose appropriate methods for diagnosing the effects of economic activities on the environment which will provide the best results in decision making. (Adaptation of some existing approaches/theories/methods to be used in new applications). For the standards and their values there are agreements that take more or less in account scientific weighting, that require a higher quality level for the information generated, and this is important because they decisional elements in solving environmental problems. Uncompleted and uncertain information could influence the consequences of the economic action, and also further developments and therefore we propose a scientific foundation of the approach (elaboration of new approaches and theories in the area of the topic).
Overall acomplishment of sustainable development objectives assumes that economic policies to be designed according to environmental considerations and economic functions of natural resources. In order to do so, decision makers need information on the risk components which affect the ecosystems from Romania, and therefore the research team aims to find out the qualitative and quantitative dimensions of ecosystem risk prediction. Such information has to builded in a way that allows the expression of sustainable development intergeneration equity central issue, preservation of a healthy environment for future generations – aknowledging the degradation scenarios on our countries territory. The efficiency of economic reform policies could be assessed by comparing traditional synthetic indicators with those resulted from the integration of environmental data. The simple comparation of these indicators cannot provide an adequate understanding of envrionmental parameters of an economic system, reason for that it is necessary to use economic-matematic modeling (development of existent approaches/theories/method) for elaboration of the model of the synthetic risk indicator.
The project makes its contribution for both the advances in theoretical knowledge and practical abilities regarding the estimation of ecosystem risk on Romania’s territory. The topic is very complex, as for both its effects on the knowledge degree and on the appropriate administration of wide resource categories (material, financial, labor). In order to undertake the last phases, we envisage consulting representatives of central public institution managers and dissemination of the project’s results by sending to their economic and administrative departments involved in decision making syntheses of our research reports. The economic impact could be quantified by: increased effectiveness of accessing environmental information; reducing the bureaucracy; rapid collecting of data for the envisaged field; administration and transformation of data in information that will allow the effective and efficient monitoring of the evolution of the processes of sustainable development on the territory of Romania; economies in expenses for intermediate stages; significant reduction of expenses by automation of operations.
Refers mainly to the following aspects: new opportunities to objective information for the entire society, including persons from geographically remote areas from the great cities; increasing personal satisfaction because an easier access to environmental information: increasing the trust in the environmental policies implemented by the resort Minister: reference framework for the monitoring of sustainable development on Romania’s territory.
From both economic and social points of view the projects have effects on the economic and social mechanism of pollution prevention and mitigation for the main environmental factors, social and economic assessment of biodiversity at local, regional, and national levels, and also on the education of the population on the risk scenarios and on the way of their action.
The project has a positive impact on the environment by using research results as a standard format for the assessment of environmental policies at national level, evaluation of initiatives and compliance programs to environmental standards, at microeconomic level, imposed to Romania.
Economy-environment inter-conditioning is an obvious one. The environmental provides the resources that represent the core of the economic activity of supply. Provision is made for two purposes: production of goods and services, and consumption. Both production and consumption are generating waste, and these are released in the environment.
As economic policies has to be designed in the light of their environmental impact, in the same way environmental policies has to consider economic implications. This integration became nowadays a basic issue in designing environmental policies, and for this information on ecosystem risk on Romania’s territory facilitates a coherent approach.
The scope of the research is to create the means, tools and procedures on the evaluation of risk and natural and human impact on the socio-ecologic complexes of the Romania’s territory.
Economic performance in the context of sustainable development cannot be reached without a sharp expression of its impact on the environment. The research team has identified some of the events which generate ecosystem risk involved by the economic activity. During the research will be identified the statistic categories of expressing the environmental impact generated by every type of economic activity.
The effects of economic activities are reflected by structural-qualitative changes of environmental elements. Their pursuing during the research will be done from two perspectives: environment, as provider for economic activities, and environment as receptor of pollutants and waste.
A special attention will be given to the dimension of the ecosystem risk, for both qualitative and quantitative aspects. It will be identified formal procedures, quantitative methods, the statistic and econometric ones, and also probabilistic models by that the regeneration capacity of the ecosystem could be predicted on Romania’s territory. We will pursue the ways of restoring natural capital, monitoring and mitigating pollution.
The base of ecosystem risk prediction consists of the analysis of degradation rate of the ecosystem. We will drop conclusions on the base of four scenarios already established by the research team: minor, major, critical and catastrophic.
On the base of the results will be outlined probability distributions regarding the occurrence of unfavorable situations and estimated the time horizon and will be proposed the components and the ways of quantifying the risk. In other words it will be worked out the model for the synthetic risk indicator.
After analyzing the opportunity losses and total losses and the prediction of ecosystem ability to provide services for maintaining the biodiversity it will be proposed solutions for risk minimization on Romania’s territory.
In order to take place sustainable development on Romania’s territory, biodiversity and environmental quality to be preserved, and global changes’ effects to be minimized, economic development has to be accomplished on the base of diagnosis processes on economic activity’s impact on the environment in order to acknowledge the components and prediction of ecosystem risk, scientifically substantiated according to the specific of Romanian economy and the environmental conditions of our countries’ territory.
HUMAN RESOURCES
Giani Gradinaru - MANAGER
Field of competence – Environmental statistic, economy-environment inter-conditioning.
Significant results, both theoretical and practical
Development of environmental statistic system. There were identified four layers for organizing environmental statistic in Romania corresponding to information needs on local, regional, national and international levels. There were established the framework and the premises for the development of environmental statistic system, compatible with the specific of Romanian economy. It was proposed and original scheme for analyzing environmental data according to three dimensions: geographic area, economic agents and pollutants.
Statistic information system for the assessment of environmental impact: obtaining, organization and processing of information for environmental impact assessment.
Integrated system of indicators for the analysis of economic activity’s impact on the environment. The development of the set ob subject and statistic variables was made by combining the approach on environmental elements with the one regarding the pressure-state-response and of some components from the approach based on resource governance. It was identified a number of 40 statistic subjects, and through an original scheme of representation they were expressed more than one hundred statistic variables which can be used as support for integrated economy-environment statistic analysis .
Expansion of the System of National Accounts: including environmental information and of the interactions between economy and environment. It was elaborated the matrix of adjusting economy-environment relation and there were identifies four distinct aspects: standard macroeconomic indicators, macroeconomic indicators adjusted with the environment for the existing economic system, introduction of environmental performance standards to microeconomic level and maintaining the System of National Accounts among the present borders, changing the economic structure concomitantly with the broadening of the borders of the System of National Accounts.
Irina Isaic Maniu – postdoc researcher
Previous experience in the field of the proposed theme: starting with the year 2003 are working continuously in the present research team, in all the phases and activities of the projects Models for quantifying respectively monitoring environmental performances required by the Romanian economic system and their comparison in an interzonal profile, 2007, CNCSIS, Statistical information system for the evaluation environmental impact, CEEX- II module, Et, code 3, 2005, Accomplishment of the integrated system for the analysis of the economic activity’s impact on environment, At, CNCSIS, code 682, contract nr. 33518/2003.
Competence field and significant results: statistical analysis on environmental quality by the undertaken researches contributed to the development of statistical indicators of environmental quality in Romania. The research aspects envisaged the indicators: environmental concentrations, global temperatures, prospect ion of mineral resource reserves, surface of waste deposits, quality of groundwater, nitrates and phosphates concentration in rivers and lakes, expenses of alternative energies, recycling rate, indices of resources’ prices, forestation rate, expenses for collecting and treating waste, population linked to sewage systems, expenses for sewage and cleaning.
Ildiko Ioan - postdoc researcher
Previous experience in the field of the proposed theme: Didactic and research activity in the field of ecology, environmental protection, sustainable development and geography. Participation to all of the activities (proposal elaboration, implementation, result valuation etc.) of grants obtained by national and international competition. Contributions to building urban sustainability indices.
Competence field and significant results: preservation of biodiversity, climate research. By the undertaken research contributed to clarifying concepts and formulating hypotheses regarding the equilibrium of natural systems at biosphere, biome and ecosystem level, natural hazards and ecologic risks, cumulative effects of air pollution, sustainable use of natural resources, management of ecologic networks by implementing the ecosystem approach, sustainable development, physical geography, inter-conditioning between climate and agricultural activities.
Raluca Ignat – position becoming researcher
Environmental impact assessment: by the undertaken researches contributed to the identification of certain aspects regarding the procedures to actualization in the case of investments of which benefits come into action after many years, such is the case of environmental benefits, to the identification of certain methods and techniques for evaluating environmental benefits. The research activities that will be undertaken will broaden her horizon of knowledge for working out the PhD thesis entitled The economic efficiency of agriculture in the Euroregion Giurgiu-Ruse.
Her role will be the one of the co-coordinator of the becoming researcher’s team with full assignment in the project, with involvement in all the activities of the project. In order to carry out the activities with scientific feature: studying of the bibliography proposed by the project director, elaboration of activity reports (for all scientific activities of the project).
For the activities specific to broadening the knowledge horizon: online discussions with the members of scientific community with that the team already established contacts, identification of researcher groups with the same interests, participation in the first two years of the projects activities to scientific documentation stages in two of the universities where there are researcher groups with the same interest, accomplishment of research reports.
For the activities to increase international visibility: participation to two international conferences, active involvement in the selection process of the articles to be published in the mentioned revues, quoted ISI.
Meanwhile, she will co-ordinated the administrative activities of the project: requests for consumable material according to the needs identified by the project director, relations with the supply Service, IT Department, Economic Research Department of ASE and the head office of ASE. She will type the materials with the research results. She will be involved in organising the workshops with the members of the Statistics and Econometrics Chair on topics related to the research project theme.
Simona Olteanu– position becoming researcher
It will be an active role, in subordination to the previous position, with full assignment in the project, with involvement in project’s activities. In order to carry out the activities with scientific feature: studying of the bibliography proposed by the project director, working out documentation syntheses (for all scientific activities of the project).