A Test India Can't Afford to Lose

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Statesman, 11-07-2017

A test India can't afford to lose

• HarshaKakar

July 11, 2017 | 03:14 AM

The Chinese volunteering to broker peace between Pakistan and Afghanistan as also the standoff with India and Bhutan on the Doklam plateau are the latest in Beijing’s attempts to change geostrategic equations in South Asia, an area that India considers to be under its influence.

China had earlier attempted to woo Nepal by offering to supply oil, build roads and railways as also involve them in the One Belt One Road (OBOR) project. However, Nepal under Indian influence did not succumb to Chinese pressure, though it has joined the OBOR project.

With Bangladesh, China supplied submarines, offered aid and convinced them into accepting to be part of OBOR. It has already taken controlling rights over the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka for 99 years and is seeking a stake of up to 85 per cent in the Kyaukpyu port in Myanmar, a strategic deep-water port.

In both these countries, it has set an example of the way it does business, offers aid, then when repayment is not possible seeks controlling rights on strategic assets.

It is deeply involved in Pakistan where it is funding the CPEC and developing the Gwadar port. It is only a matter of time before Pakistan goes the Sri Lanka or Myanmar way. Thus, China is attempting to replace India’s hold and power in the region. If it succeeds, it will forever alter the geostrategic equations of the region.

India must prove - and the Doklam standoff is the test - whether it can and would stand up to the Chinese threat and rhetoric. India cannot afford to easily back down, for if it does it would push all countries of South Asia, including Bhutan into the Chinese fold. It is no longer a simple game of pushing and shoving, but highlights the deeper sinister designs of the Chinese. The only solution for the present standoff would be a face saver for both sides, irrespective of who blinks first, as long as status quo of the plateau remains.

This would convince South Asian countries of India’s determination, irrespective of Chinese provocations. China has always bulldozed its way with its smaller neighbours across the Asian region, Bhutan is its latest victim. South Asia is watching, waiting to see if India does prevent the Chinese from achieving their aims. It is for this reason that state-controlled Chinese media continues with its rhetoric and builds up war hysteria. The Indian government remains silent, ignoring the rhetoric.

There have been questions raised about the comments of the army chief, when he stated that the nation is prepared for a two and a half front war. This is a normal statement, issued by every chief to inform his command to always be prepared for a conflict and train accordingly.

War is never an easy option for either side, nor would the standoff result in one. Neither side would even consider enhancing the standoff into a skirmish, solely because neither desire it. China needs to be careful as it could be the biggest loser if it contemplates considering an escalation. War impacts the economy and could be devastating for either side, setting them back by decades.

For China, it would offset plans for developing the OBOR. Further, China faces a greater challenge from the US as it seeks to arm Taiwan and flex its muscle in the South China Sea than it does on the Doklam plateau. This is an incident which it never visualized, considering it was dealing with Bhutan and not India. India is now the fastest growing economy. War would push it back, hence it seeks to avoid one.

A local skirmish is equally dangerous for a variety of reasons. In case China does not achieve its local aims, which is very likely, since Indian forces are deployed on the watershed, it would have no option but to escalate. More importantly, if it fails to achieve its objectives in a skirmish, the international standing and reputation of its military would take a hammering, prompting its smaller neighbours to flex their muscles.

India is prepared but seeks to avoid a confrontation, preferring a peaceful solution to the crises. A skirmish, especially since India is on the defensive posture and on the watershed, would tilt the scales in its favour, however would be costly in every manner.

Further, the border would then become active and compel India to handle two live frontiers simultaneously. It is quite possible that Pakistan would seek to take advantage of any Indo-China skirmish; this would add to New Delhi’s problems. Hence for India, it is much more than a matter of just standing by Bhutan.

It is to prove to South Asia that it can withstand pressures from China, irrespective of possible increased threat from Pakistan. China while avoiding a direct conflict would attempt to make things difficult by re-commencing its active support to anti-India groups in the North east. It has already threatened to support an independence movement in Sikkim, which is more than a direct hint. With the Gorkhaland movement already gaining ground, supply of weapons to them would only increase difficulties.

The present standoff is now a battle of wits, with both sides seeking a way forward, saving face, while maintaining the status quo on the plateau. While the two sides stand face to face, it is diplomacy which should now step forward to resolve the impasse. Either side backing down unilaterally would indicate a weakness; hence it may have to be a simultaneous withdrawal or an agreement on which one withdraws first. The South Asian geostrategic environment is India-centric, which should remain so.

China seeking to alter it would put India in a quandary. Hence India must be firm in its present stance, while still seeking a diplomatic and peaceful solution before any incident triggers an escalation. It cannot let its backyard be taken over by the Chinese. The present standoff is a test, which India can ill afford to lose.

The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.