Manufacturing:
A Susquehanna Region Industry Brief
Submitted by:
Sage Policy Group, Inc.
Submitted to:
The Susquehanna Workforce Network
Harford County Office of Economic Development
Cecil County Economic Development Department
February 2017
Executive Summary
Background
Between 2004 and 2014, manufacturing employment in the Susquehanna Region declined from nearly 9,500 positions to fewer than 8,500 positions. Approximately half of this loss was recovered in 2015 itself, but manufacturing employment has generally been falling locally, statewide, and nationally over time. Between 2011 and 2015, Maryland lost nearly 9,300 manufacturing jobs. The U.S. has lost 5 million manufacturing jobs since 2000.
One would be tempted to think that the loss of manufacturing jobs would signify a dearth of opportunity for jobseekers. Data indicate otherwise. Available information from the Maryland Workforce Exchange indicates that roughly 500 manufacturing positions were being advertised in the Susquehanna Region as of December 2016. Focus groups conducted by the Sage Policy Group in late-2016 also indicate that manufacturers suffer enormous difficulty filling available jobs despite an abundance of applicants.
The difficulty finding eligible candidates is not simply a function of a lack of formal education. Data from 2016 indicate that more than 70 percent of the Susquehanna region’s manufacturing workforce lacks a bachelor’s degree. Moreover, most manufacturing occupations have as their primary skill a skill that is learned on the job.
Findings
This industry brief addresses the following questions:
- What are the realistic growth prospects for manufacturing employment in the Susquehanna Region?
- To what extent is there evidence of inadequate human capital supply now and into the future with respect to regional manufacturing?
- What does an individual need to do to access manufacturing opportunities and are those opportunities available within the confines of the Susquehanna Region?
Sage concludes that the Susquehanna Region will produce significant numbers of manufacturing job openings in the future, in part due to retirement, and that employers will continue to have difficulty filling them. We further conclude that there are proximate opportunities for residents to obtain the necessary skills and credentials to enter manufacturing, but that to date these opportunities have either not adequately prepared workers for careers, or more likely, that not enough residents have accessed them.
We recommend that the Susquehanna Workforce Network (SWN) study the extent to which participants in itsEntry Level Manufacturing Training Program: 1) successfully complete the program, 2) secure employment, 3) retain employment, and 4) are promoted to positions beyond entry-level. We also recommend that there be an analysis of enrollment trends, an assessment of the degree to which jobseekers are aware of this program, and an inquiry regarding any evidence of unmet demand.
I. Industry Overview
- Can We Replace all those Lost Industrial Jobs?
A Congressional Research Service report dated June 2016 pointed out that while U.S. manufacturing output has expanded by approximately 9 percent since the most recent low point in 2009, almost all of that expansion occurred prior to the end of 2014. Moreover, the rebound in industry output “has resulted in negligible employment growth.”[1]
At the onset of the 21st century, 17.1 million Americans worked in manufacturing. That figure began to decline with the recession that began in March 2001. By the time the most recent recession began in December 2007, U.S. manufacturing employment had dipped to 13.7 million.[2] By December 2016, fewer than 12.3 million manufacturing positions existed in America.[3]
One could reasonably ask if the nation can hope to add manufacturing employment over time if it fails to do so even during periods of broader economic expansion. Given the specter of accelerating innovation and automation, one could also ask whether it makes sense for American communities to invest significant resources in manufacturing given its historic and presumed trajectory. This industry brief attempts to address these and similar questions for stakeholders in Maryland’s Susquehanna Region.
- The Industry Defined
The Manufacturing sector comprises establishments engaged in the physical, mechanical, or chemical transformation of materials, substances, or components into new products. Manufacturing establishments are often described as plants, factories, or mills and characteristically use power driven machines and materials handling equipment.
Establishments that transform materials or substances into new products by hand or in the worker’s home and those engaged in selling to the general public products made on the same premises from which they are sold, such as bakeries, candy stores, and custom tailors, may also be classified as manufacturing. Manufacturing establishments may process materials or may contract with other establishments to process their materials for them. Both types of establishments are included in the manufacturing sector.[4],[5]
Though there are stereotypical images of manufacturing workers, who are often visualized in assembly line settings, there are in fact a myriad of different occupational categories and skill sets implicated by the sector. Below are some brief descriptions:
- Science, technology, engineering and mathematics workers are frequently involved at the earliest stages of manufacturing when they are creating or improving a product’s design. These workers may also help design the machines, robots, and other technologies used in factories. Employment in these types of activities is expected to expand going forward.
- Production workers help to make a product according to design specifications, conducting tasks such as operating machinery, overseeing product quality, or packaging and preparing finished goods for shipping. Many production worker positions are susceptible to automation.
- Installation, maintenance, and repair workers keep production equipment and machinery, as well as facilities themselves, functioning properly. As a result of the increased use of automated processes, maintenance and repair work of machinery will remain an important manufacturing component.
- Transportation and material moving workers handle products and raw materials and help to move them from one location—such as a shipping and receiving area, loading dock, or warehouse— to another. The demand for workers to do heavy lifting inside factories continues to diminish with the increased use of technology.
- Management and business and financial operations workers plan and oversee manufacturing operations. Occupations in this category are often highly compensated and include general and operations managers and industrial production managers.
- Sales workers interact with existing and prospective customers to help market manufactured products to wholesalers, retailers, and consumers.
- Office and administrative support workers answer phones, process orders, and perform clerical tasks. One of the largest occupations in this group is shipping, receiving, and traffic clerks. Job growth for this occupation, however, is expected to be limited as automation and the increased use of radiofrequency identification tags help workers track incoming and outgoing shipments more quickly and efficiently.[6]
II. Manufacturing in the Susquehanna Region
- Regional Manufacturing Employment Bounced Back in ‘15
Like many American communities, the Susquehanna Region has experienced declines in manufacturing employment over time. Between 2004 and 2014, regional manufacturing employment declined from nearly 9,500 positions to fewer than 8,500 positions one decade later (Exhibits 1 and 2). However, roughly half of this loss was recovered in 2015. By 2015, the region supported more manufacturing jobs than it had during any period since the recession.
Exhibit 1. Susquehanna Region Manufacturing Employment (NSA), 2001-2015
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); Sage. Notes: 1. NSA: Not Seasonally Adjusted.Exhibit 2. Recent Growth in Manufacturing Employment (NSA), Maryland v. Susquehanna Region
Manufacturing Employment / 2011 v. 20152011 / 2015 / Net / %
Maryland / 113,033 / 103,757 / -9,276 / -8.2%
Susquehanna WIA / 8,503 / 8,942 / 439 / 5.2%
Cecil County, MD / 4,084 / 4,255 / 171 / 4.2%
Harford County, MD / 4,419 / 4,687 / 268 / 6.1%
Manufacturing Employment / 2015 H1 v. 2016 H1
2015 H1 / 2016 H1 / Net / %
Maryland / 103,193 / 103,505 / 312 / 0.3%
Susquehanna WIA / 8,861 / 9,049 / 188 / 2.1%
Cecil County, MD / 4,213 / 4,201 / -12 / -0.3%
Harford County, MD / 4,648 / 4,847 / 199 / 4.3%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); Sage. Notes: 1. NSA: Not Seasonally Adjusted. 2. Annual figures are annual averages. 3. H1: First half of the year. Figures for 2015/2016 H1 represent the average employment level from January-June in each year.
The recent growth in regional manufacturing employment defies statewide trends. Between 2011 and 2015, Maryland lost nearly 9,300 manufacturing positions while the Susquehanna Region gained more than 400.
The leading manufacturing segment in the region is plastics & rubber products manufacturing (Exhibit 3), a reflection of the presence of W.L. Gore & Associates and its estimated 2,400 positions in Cecil County. This single employer is responsible for more than a quarter of all manufacturing employment in the Susquehanna Region. Other large manufacturers include ATK and Terumo Medical Products in Cecil County and Frito-Lay and Cylec Engineered Materials in Harford County.
Exhibit 3. Susquehanna Region Manufacturing Employment by Detailed Industry, 2016Q1
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, LED Extraction Tool - Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI).Notes:1. Private manufacturing employment. 2. Data are not seasonally adjusted (NSA). 3. Some manufacturing industries are not represented above because the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics suppresses figures when they do not meet US Census Bureau publication standards. *Data for these industries may be distorted/fuzzed.
There are a number of reasons that communities around the nation continue to focus upon manufacturing despite the large-scale loss of employment over time and the expectation that global competition and automation will likely continue to drive job totals lower. One is that people are instinctively aware that manufacturing represents a source of wealth creation. In a purely service-oriented environment, wealth can only be transferred. It is only through the translation of inputs into outputs that actual wealth is created.
Moreover, wages are higher in manufacturing than in most other industries. This is certainly true in the Susquehanna Region. By the second quarter of 2016, the average weekly manufacturing wage in the Susquehanna Workforce Region was $1,296, which translates into an average annual income of approximately $67,000.
Exhibit 4. Susquehanna Region Manufacturing Business Establishments by Detailed Industry, 2016Q2
Industry / Total Susq. Region# of Establishments / % of Total Manufacturing Ests.
Fabricated metal product manufacturing / 41 / 18.5%
Plastics and rubber products manufacturing / 26 / 11.7%
Machinery manufacturing / 21 / 9.5%
Food manufacturing / 19 / 8.6%
Printing and related support activities / 18 / 8.1%
Miscellaneous manufacturing / 17 / 7.7%
Chemical manufacturing / 15 / 6.8%
Nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing / 12 / 5.4%
Computer & electronic product manufacturing / 12 / 5.4%
Furniture and related product manufacturing / 8 / 3.6%
Wood product manufacturing / 8 / 3.6%
Transportation equipment manufacturing / 6 / 2.7%
Textile product mills / 5 / 2.3%
Beverage and tobacco product manufacturing / 4 / 1.8%
Apparel manufacturing / 2 / 0.9%
Primary metal manufacturing / 2 / 0.9%
Electrical equipment and appliance mfg. / 2 / 0.9%
Textile mills / 1 / 0.5%
Leather and allied product manufacturing / 1 / 0.5%
Paper manufacturing / 1 / 0.5%
Petroleum and coal products manufacturing / 1 / 0.5%
TOTAL MANUFACTURING / 222 / 100.0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program-QCEW NAICS-Based Data Files.
Exhibit 5. Average Weekly Manufacturing Wages in Maryland by Workforce Region, 2016Q2
Avg. Hourly Wage* / Avg. Weekly Wage / Avg. Annual Wage*Susquehanna Workforce Region
Manufacturing Wages / $32.40 / $1,296 / $67,392
Source: Maryland Workforce Exchange, Labor Market Statistics, Covered Employment and Wages Program. *Assumes a 40-hour week worked year round.
III. Looking Ahead: Meeting Future Demands in Manufacturing
This industry brief addresses the following questions:
- What are the realistic growth prospects for manufacturing employment in the Susquehanna Region?
- To what extent is there evidence of inadequate human capital supply now and into the future with respect to regional manufacturing?
- What does an individual need to do to access manufacturing opportunities and are those opportunities available within the confines of the Susquehanna Region?
Question 1. What are the realistic growth prospects for manufacturing employment in the Susquehanna Region?
- Projected Employment Growth in Key Industry Subsectors & Occupations
This is an important question that has been addressed by labor market analysts in the past. As Exhibit 6 indicates, there are a number of key manufacturing segments expected to add jobs in the Susquehanna Region. Most relate to durable goods manufacturing.
Exhibit 6. Susquehanna Region –Projected Employment Growth inManufacturing by Detailed Industry,2012-2022
Industry / 2012 / 2022 / 2012-2022Change / % Change
Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing / 2,877 / 3,942 / 1,065 / 37.0%
Miscellaneous Manufacturing / 749 / 954 / 205 / 27.4%
Machinery Manufacturing / 314 / 386 / 72 / 22.9%
Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing / 875 / 925 / 50 / 5.7%
Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing / 224 / 268 / 44 / 19.6%
Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing / 478 / 512 / 34 / 7.1%
Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing / 33 / 44 / 11 / 33.3%
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing / 50 / 54 / 4 / 8.0%
Textile Mills / 6 / 6 / 0 / 0.0%
Food Manufacturing / 693 / 693 / 0 / 0.0%
Electrical Equipment, Appliance, & Component Mnfg. / 3 / 3 / 0 / 0.0%
Apparel Manufacturing / 1 / 1 / 0 / 0.0%
Textile Product Mills / 22 / 21 / -1 / -4.5%
Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing / 98 / 96 / -2 / -2.0%
Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing / 111 / 102 / -9 / -8.1%
Wood Product Manufacturing / 61 / 49 / -12 / -19.7%
Chemical Manufacturing / 720 / 706 / -14 / -1.9%
Printing and Related Support Activities / 275 / 259 / -16 / -5.8%
Primary Metal Manufacturing / 242 / 148 / -94 / -38.8%
Transportation Equipment Manufacturing / 484 / 319 / -165 / -34.1%
Source: Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing and Regulation, Division of Workforce Development and Adult Learning. Available:
The notion that manufacturing is poised to create opportunities is not merely speculative. Exhibit 7 reflects job openings being advertised in the Susquehanna Region as of the third week of January 2017. Note that manufacturing was associated with more job openings than all industries except for three. Though hiring can be somewhat sluggish during winter months, there were still more than 460 job openings tied to the manufacturing sector as of January in the Susquehanna Region. The previous month, there were more than 500 advertised manufacturing job openings (Exhibit 8), including in high-wage segments like computers, transportation equipment and chemicals.
Exhibit 7. Job Openings (Jobs Available) in the Susquehanna Region: Top 10 Industries (as of January 2017, Week 3)
Rank / Industry / Job Openings1 / Professional Scientific and Technical Services / 1,771
2 / Retail Trade / 723
3 / Health Care and Social Assistance / 608
4 / Manufacturing / 463
5 / Administrative &Support and Waste Management & Remediation / 340
6 / Accommodation and Food Services / 284
7 / Public Administration / 177
8 / Other Services (except Public Administration) / 130
9 / Finance and Insurance / 111
10 / Wholesale Trade / 86
Source: Maryland Workforce Exchange, Labor Market Information; Maryland Department of Legislative Services (DLLR) Maryland Workforce Dashboard.
Exhibit 8. Advertised Manufacturing Job Openings in the Susquehanna Region during the Month of December 2016 by Detailed Industry Subsector
Rank / Subsector / Job Openings1 / Miscellaneous Manufacturing / 145
2 / Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing / 123
3 / Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing / 98
4 / Transportation Equipment Manufacturing / 66
5 / Chemical Manufacturing / 29
Total Manufacturing Job Openings / 513
Source: Maryland Workforce Exchange, Labor Market Information. Job Source: Online advertised jobs data. Notes: 1. The table shows the number of job openings advertised online in the Susquehanna Workforce Region in December 2016 (Jobs De-duplication Level 2) for the following sectors: Miscellaneous Manufacturing (NAICS 339), Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing (NAICS 334), Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing (NAICS 326), Transportation Equipment Manufacturing (NAICS 336), Chemical Manufacturing (NAICS 325). 2. Jobs De-duplication Level 2: high level de-duplication of advertised job openings (for statistical analysis).
Some may be surprised by the large numbers of job openings among manufacturers. However, it is important not to conflate employment growth with demand for workers. Exhibit 9 supplies statistical detail regarding the characteristics of manufacturing workers as of 2016’s initial quarter. Note that many workers are over the age of 55, implying elevated levels of retirement. Correspondingly, there will be demand for manufacturing workers in the Susquehanna Region going forward even in the absence of significant overall industry employment growth.
Exhibit 9. Characteristics of Manufacturing Employees in the Susquehanna Region, 2016Q1
# of Employees / % of TotalTOTAL MNF. EMPLOYEES / 8,947 / 100.0%
SEX
Male / 6,099 / 68.2%
Female / 2,848 / 31.8%
AGE
<19 / 25 / 0.3%
19-24 / 482 / 5.4%
25-34 / 1,635 / 18.3%
35-44 / 1,786 / 20.0%
45-54 / 2,503 / 28.0%
55-64 / 2,112 / 23.6%
65+ / 406 / 4.5%
RACE
White Alone / 7,314 / 81.7%
Black or African American Alone / 1,210 / 13.5%
All Other / 423 / 4.7%
ETHNICITY
Hispanic or Latino / 358 / 4.0%
Not Hispanic or Latino / 8,589 / 96.0%
EDUCATION LEVEL
Less than high school / 952 / 10.6%
High school or equivalent, no college / 2,668 / 29.8%
Some college or Associate degree / 2,741 / 30.6%
Bachelor’s degree or advanced degree / 2,080 / 23.2%
Educational attainment NA (2) / 507 / 5.7%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, LED Extraction Tool - Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI). Notes: 1. Figures shown are the total number of jobs on the first day of the reference quarter. Beginning-of-quarter employment counts are similar to point-in-time employment measures, such as the QCEW (see: 2. Educational attainment not available—workers aged 24 or younger.
Question 2. To what extent is there evidence of inadequate human capital supply now and into the future with respect to regional manufacturing?
- There is a Need to Train Workers for Manufacturing Opportunities
The discussion above supplied two reasons that induce communities to remain fixated on the future of their manufacturing industries. Exhibit 10 embodies a third – manufacturing supplies opportunities for people who lack significant formal educational attainment an opportunity to enter or remain in the middle class. As indicated by Exhibit 10, roughly two in three jobseekers in the Susquehanna Region lack a bachelor’s degree. The key is to provide individuals with the credentials they need to enter manufacturing employment. Most manufacturers that Sage interviewed indicate that a majority of jobs require as their primary skill a skill that is learned on the job.
Exhibit 10. Education & Work Experience of Available Candidates in the Susquehanna Region, all industries (as of 1/17/2017)
Education Level / # of Potential Candidates / % of Total CandidatesLess than High School / 269 / 2.1%
High School Diploma or Equivalent / 3,580 / 27.3%
1-3 Years at College or Technical/Vocational School / 2,352 / 17.9%
Vocational School Certificate / 1,368 / 10.4%
Associate’s Degree / 1,074 / 8.2%
Bachelor’s Degree / 2,793 / 21.3%
Master’s Degree / 1,357 / 10.4%
Doctorate Degree / 217 / 1.7%
Specialized Degree (e.g. MD, DDS) / 101 / 0.8%
Total / 13,111 / 100.0%
Work Experience / # of Potential Candidates / % of Total Candidates
Less than 1 year / 1,069 / 8.2%
1 Year to 2 Years / 421 / 3.2%
2 Years to 5 Years / 1,237 / 9.4%
5 Years to 10 Years / 1,941 / 14.8%
More than 10 Years / 8,451 / 64.4%
Total / 13,119 / 100.0%
Source: Maryland Workforce Exchange: Labor Market Information; Candidate Source: Individuals with active resumes in the workforce system.
In a separate 2017 Sage study on behalf of the Susquehanna Workforce Network (SWN), local manufacturers reported great difficulty securing properly credentialed and trainable workers. The implication is that there is evidence of inadequate human capital supply despite large numbers of applicants. Manufacturing employers are finding that many of these workers are simply not ready to be hired. There are many issues at hand, including failed drug tests, prior convictions, or poor resumes and presentation skills. Combined, the answers to questions one and two indicate that there is an ongoing need among Susquehanna regional residents to be sufficiently trained to join and remain in the manufacturing workforce. A number of employers reported that to the extent that they find successful candidates, many are from Delaware.[7]