ALookatTerroristBehavior:HowTheyPrepare,WhereTheyStrike

byBrentSmith,Ph.D.

mothyMcVegh,theSept.11hjack-ersandErcRudolphallhadsomethng

ncommon—theyselectedtargetshundredsofmlesfromwheretheylved.McVeghwanderedtheMdwestlvng

asatransentbeforemaknghsbombn

Herngton,Kan.,anddrvng250mlessouthtoblasttheAlfredP.MurrahFederalBuldng

nOklahomaCty.TheSept.11hjackerstraveledhundredsofmlestothertargets.AndRudolphdrovenearly300mlesfromMurphy,N.C.,tobombanabortonclncnBrmngham,Ala.

Forlocalpolcedepartmentssearchngforwaystostopterrorstactsbeforetheyoccur,thsdoesnotbrngmuchcomfort.When

lookngattheseattacks,offcersmghtgetthempressonthattheresnotmuchtheycandoaboutterrorsmotherthanmprovngphyscalsecurtyathgh-rsktargets.

Butwerethesenfamousterrorststypcal?

Althoughweknowagreatdealaboutthebehavoroftradtonalcrmnals,lttle nfor-matonhasbeenavalableaboutterrorsts.Aretheymuchdfferentfromconventonalcrmnals,whotendtocommtthercrmesclosetohome?1Researchhasshownthattradtonalcrmnalsarespontaneous,but

terrorstsseemtogotogreatlengthsprepar-

ngfortherattacks—andmaycommtothercrmeswhledongso.Howlongdoesthsplannngtake?Anddodfferenttypesof

terrorstgroupsvarynpreparatontme?

Tohelpanswerthesequestons,the

NatonalInsttuteofJustce(NIJ)launchedaseresofprojectstoexplorepatterns

ofterrorstbehavor.2Inthefrstofthese

projects,apanelofexperts3wasassembledtoexamne60casestudesnvolvng

terrorstncdentsntheU.S.durng

thepast25years.4ThesecasesnvolvedthefourmajortypesofU.S.terrorstgroups:leftwng,rghtwng,sngle

ssueandnternatonal.5,6,7Thepanel—

ncludngthsauthor—lookedatthehomesoftheterrorsts,thelocatonsof

DistanceFromTerroristResidencetoTarget

(AllGroups)*

plannngandpreparaton,andthestesoftheterrorstncdentstodscoverwhetheranypatternsemerged.

Whatwelearnedwasntrgung:ThecasesofMcVegh,theSept.11hjackersandRudolphareactuallyunusual.Infact,wefoundthatmostterrorstslveclosetotherselectedtargets,andtheyengagenagreatdealofpreparaton—someoverthecourseofmonthsorevenyears—thathasthepotentalofcomngtotheattentonoflocallawenforcement.

TerroristsThinkGloballybutActLocally

44%(0-30miles)

W

7%(31-90miles)8%(91-270miles)

N

12%(271-810miles)29%(811-2,570miles)

E

Westuded:

■ Tenattacksbynternatonalgroupsthat

nvolved93preparatoryacts.

■ Fourteenattacksbyrght-wnggroupsthat

nvolved55preparatoryacts.

■ Twenty-nneattacksbyenvronmentalgroupsthatnvolved80preparatoryacts.

■ Sxattacksbyleft-wnggroupsthat

nvolvedeghtpreparatoryacts.

Accordngtoouranalyss,almosthalf

(44percent)ofallterrorstsexamnedlvedwthn30mlesofthertargets.(Seespa-

talanalyssonthspage,“DstanceFromTerrorstResdencetoTarget(AllGroups).")Whenthetypesofterrorstgroupsareexamnedseparately,however,thefnd-

ngsaremuchdfferent.

Internatonalterrorstslvedrelatvelynearthertargets,whereasrght-wngterrorstslvednruralareasbutselectedtargetsreflectngthe“pollutantsofurbanlfe”

nnearbyctes.

Terrorstsmostcommonlypreparedfortherattackswthsurvellanceandntellgencegatherng,robberesandtheftstorasefund-

ngforthegroup,weaponsvolatons,andbombmanufacturng.Agan,mostofthesebehavorstookplacerelatvelyneartherhomes,whch,nturn,wereclosetothe

S

*Thssalnearanalyssofthedstancefromtheresdencesof423terrorststothertargets.

targets.Terrorstsmaystayclosetohomebecauseofnew mmgratonstatus,lack

oftransportaton,lackofknowledgeoftheurbanlandscapeoradesretoavodattenton.Amongsngle-ssueterrorsts

npartcular,71percentofthepreparatoryactsoccurredwthn12mlesand92percentwthn28mlesofthetarget.Thsfndngmayalsobeattrbutedtotheuseof“uncoord-natedvolence”tactcsbytheseenvronmen-talandant-abortonextremsts,whchoftenresultsnlocaltargetngby“lonewolves”sympathetctothecause.

Aseparatefollow-upNIJproject8thatanalyzedthedstancebetweenmorethan250envronmentalandnternatonal

terrorsts’homesandthertargetsconfrmedtheearlerprelmnaryfndngsthatther

spatalpatternsarefarlysmlar.Theanalyss

DistanceFromEnvironmentalTerrorist

ResidencetoTarget*

oftheattack.Majorcrimestoprocurefund-ingforthegroup—likethefts,robberiesandburglaries—however,areintentionally

51%(0-30miles)

W

9%(31-90miles)8%(91-270miles)

N

8%(271-810miles)24%(811-2,430miles)

E

committedmanymilesawaytoavoiddrawingattentiontothegroup’slocationandtargetchoice.

TheTerrorist’sTimepiece

Wefoundthatpreparationsgenerallybeganlessthansixmonthsbeforetheattackandendedwithaflurryofactionsadayorsobefore.Thispatternvariedbygrouptype.Single-issueandright-wingterroristsengagedinsubstantiallylesspreparatorycrimeoverashorterperiod—onceagain,mostlikelyreflectingtheuseof“leader-

lessresistance”andlone-wolfstrategies.Theplanningcycleofinternationalterroriststendedtobelonger.(Seethetableonpage

5,“CumulativePercentageofPreparatory

ActsOverTime.”)

S

*Thisisalinearanalysisofthedistancefromtheresidencesof208environmentalterroriststotheirtargets.

foundthatabouthalfoftheenvironmentalterroristsandnearlythree-fifthsoftheinter-nationalterroristslivedwithin30milesoftheirtargets.(Seethefigureonthispage,“DistanceFromEnvironmentalTerroristResidencetoTarget”andtheoneonpage

5,“DistanceFromInternationalTerrorist

ResidencetoTarget.”)Sixty-fivepercentof

theenvironmentalterroristsand59percentoftheinternationalterroristspreparedfortheirattackswithin30milesoftheirtargetsites.

Althoughtheterroristsstudiedcommittedmostoftheirpreparatoryoffensesneartheirhomes,theyconductedrobberies,burglariesandtheftsmuchfartheraway—anaverageof429milesfromhome.Thissuggeststhatmostenvironmentalandinternationalterror-istsliveneartheselectedtargetandconductsurveillanceandothergeneralpreparationneartheirhomesandtheeventuallocation

Inourfollow-upstudy,wetookacloserlookatthespecificpatternsofinternationalandenvironmentalterroristsbyplacing

thepreparationsforallincidentsonatimeline.Forinstance,weexaminedthe

21incidentsattributedtotheenvironmen-talterroristgroupknownas“TheFamily,”whichwasresponsiblefortheVail,Colo.,skiresortarsonin1998andmanyattacksagainstForestServiceandBureauofLandManagementbuildingsfrom1996to2000.TheFamilyconsistedofatleast16people.

Unlikemostenvironmentalterroristswhouseuncoordinatedviolenceandlone-wolfstrate-gies,thegroup’sactionsweremoresponta-neousthanotherenvironmentalcases,with

ashortpreparationperiodandlittleextendedplanning.Eighty-fivepercentoftheirknownpreparationactivities—typically,inspectionofthetarget,purchaseofbomb-makingitemsfromlocalstoresandidentification

ofastagingareaashortdistancefromthetarget—occurredwithinsixdaysoftheplannedattack.Anexplosivedevicewasassembledatthestagingareaadayorsobeforetheincidentandthendeliveredtothetarget.Participantsusuallyreturnedtothestagingareatodestroyanyevidence.

Internationalterrorists,ontheotherhand,engagedinnearlythreetimesasmanypreparatoryactsperincidentastheir

envronmentalcounterparts.Thsmaybeduetothelargernumberofpeopleusually

nvolvednnternatonalncdents,thesze

DistanceFromInternationalTerrorist

ResidencetoTarget*

andscopeoftheplannedncdentorsmplyalongerplannngcycle.Comparngthe10

nternatonalterrorstncdentsthatoccurredonAmercansol,9wefoundthattheaver-ageplannngcyclefornternatonalterrorstswas92days,asopposedto14daysfor

envronmentalterrorsts.Averagescanbe

msleadng,however,becauseofsgnfcantoutlers,suchasthemultyearplannngcycleoftheIslamcextremstsseekngtodestroyNewYorkCtylandmarksnthemd-1990s.Whereasenvronmentalterrorstscom-

mttedanoverwhelmngmajortyoftherpreparatoryactvtesntheweekbeforethe

ncdent,nternatonalterrorststookuptosxmonthstoprepare.

ArmingPoliceWithKnowledge

59%(0-30miles)

W

17%(31-90miles)8%(91-270miles)

N

12%(271-810miles)4%(811-2,430miles)

E

Forlawenforcementagences,thempl-catonsofthesepatternsaresgnfcant.Commttnganactofterrorsmwllusually

nvolvelocalpreparatons.Althoughmuch

ofthsconductwllnotnecessarlybecrm-nal,earlyntellgencemaygvelawenforce-menttheopportuntytostoptheterrorstsbeforeanncdentoccurs.Knowledgeofthethreat—forexample,understandnghowlongenvronmentalornternatonalterror-

stspreparefortherattacks—wllaffectthemannernwhchlocaloffcalsrespond.Identfyngpreparatoryactonsbyenvron-mentalextremstsmaysgnalthatanattack

smmnent,whereassmlarbehavorbyan

nternatonalgroupmghtsuggestthatanattacksstllseveralmonthsaway.

S

*Thssalnearanalyssofthedstancefromtheresdencesof49nternatonalterrorststothertargets.

Understandngthatmostterrorsts“actlocally”canbemportanttoknowasnves-tgatveagencesseektopreventterrorsm

andarrestperpetrators.Theselocalpatternsmaybeusedbyagencestomoreeffcently

CumulativePercentageofPreparatoryActsOverTime

TypeofTerrorist
Group / Incidentday / Daybefore / 2-3days / 4-7days / 8-14days / 15-30days / 1-3mos / 4-6mos / 7-12mos / 1-3yrs / 3+
yrs
International / 5% / 9% / 13% / 21% / 32% / 55% / 68% / 84% / 89% / 97% / 100%
Rightwing / 15% / 26% / 31% / 44% / 49% / 67% / 94% / 96% / 96% / 100%
Environmental / 20% / 43% / 72% / 80% / 91% / 95% / 98% / 100%
Leftwing / 50% / 75% / 88% / 88% / 88% / 88% / 100%
Allcategories / 13% / 27% / 40% / 48% / 57% / 72% / 85% / 93% / 95% / 99% / 100%

Percentageofactscompletedwthnaspecfedtmerange:

0-25%26%-50%51%-76%77%-100%

patrolknown,hgh-rsktargetareasandgatherntellgenceonsuspectedactonswthnaspecfcdstancefrompotentaltargets.Aswecontnuetodeepenourunderstandngoftherelatonshpamong

thelocatonoftheterrorst’shome,terror-

stpreparatonactvtesandthetarget,thsgrowngknowledgeshouldhelpoffcerspreventandrespondtoattacks.

NCJ222900

AcKNoWLEDGmENTs

WewouldlketoexpressourapprecatontotheFBI,theU.S.HouseofRepresentatvesJudcarySubcommtteeonCrme,theU.S.SenateJudcaryCommttee,Sen.Jeff

Sessons,theNatonalMemoralInsttuteforthePreventonofTerrorsm nOklahomaCty,theDepartmentofHomelandSecurtyandNIJforsupportngourresearchandtheAmercanterrorsmstudy.

AbouttheAuthor

ForMoreInformation

■ More nformatononthsstudysavalableat

■ FormorenformatononNIJ’sterrorsmresearch,see nj/topcs/crme/terrorsm.

Notes

1. Wrght,R.,andS.Decker,BurglarsontheJob:StreetlifeandResidentialBreak-ins,Boston:NortheasternUnverstyPress,1994;Wrght,R.,andS.Decker,ArmedRobbersinAction:StickupsandStreetCulture,Boston:NortheasternUnverstyPress,1997;andReppetto,T.A.,ResidentialCrime,Cambrdge:BallngerPublshng,1974.

2. “Pre-IncdentIndcatorsofTerrorstGroupActvtes,”NIJGrant#2003-DT-CX-0003;“GeospatalAnalyssofTerrorstActvtes:TheIdentfcatonofSpatalandTemporalPatternsofPreparatoryBehavorofInter-natonalandEnvronmentalTerrorsts,”NIJGrant#2005-IJ-CX-0200;and“Terrorsm

nTmeandSpace,”NIJGrant#2006-IJ-CX-0037.

3. Themembersofthepanelandtherareasofexpertsewere:RonArnold,envronmental

terrorsm;SteveChermak,rght-wngterror-

sm;KellyDamphousse,terrorsmdatabasemanagement;WllamDyson,domestcand

nternatonalterrorsm;MarkHamm,rght-wngterrorsm;RobertHebel,left-wngter-rorsm;AustnTurk,terrorsmandpoltcal

volencetheory;andtheauthor,BrentSmth,domestcandnternatonalterrorsm.

4. Caseswereselectedprmarlyfromthe

AmercanTerrorsmStudy,aprojectthat

nvolvesdatacollectononallpersonsndctedasaresultofanFBI“terrorsmenterprse”

nvestgatonasdefnedbytheattorneygeneralgudelnesfordomestcandnterna-tonalterrorsmnvestgatons.

5. Left-wngterrorstgroupsgenerallyrefertothosethatadheretoa“forward-lookng”

deology,onethatadvocatesapoltcalorsocalsystemthathasnotexstedbeforentheU.S.Typcallyassocatedwthextreme

lberalsm,examplesncludetheMay19thCommunstParty,theWeatherUndergroundandtheBlackLberatonArmy.

6. Rght-wngterrorstgroupsgenerallyrefertothosethatadheretoa“backward-lookng”

deology,onethatadvocatesareturntoa

poltcalorsocalsystemthatspercevedtohaveexstedprevouslyntheU.S.Typcallyassocatedwthextremeconservatsm,examplesncludetheKKK,whtesupremacygroupslketheAryanNatonsorgroupslketheSherff’sPosseComtatusthatopposecentralzedfederalpower.

BrentSmithisaprofessorofsociologyandcriminaljusticeattheUniversityofArkansas.Astudentofterrorismfornearly30years,hecreatedtheAmericanTerrorismStudyin1988with assistancefromtheFBI.Smithcurrently servesasdirectoroftheTerrorismResearchCenter(TRC)inFulbrightCollegeattheUniversityofArkansas.HewasassistedontheprojectsdiscussedinthearticlebyKellyDamphousse,professorofsociologyandassociatedeanoftheCollegeofArtsandSciencesattheUniversityofOklahoma;JacksonCothren,assistantprofessorofgeosciencesandaffiliateoftheCenterforAdvancedSpatialTechnologiesattheUniversityofArkansas;andPaxtonRoberts,researchassociateatTRC.

7. Lkethenamemples,sngle-ssueterror-

stgroupsadvocateonbehalfofapartcularpoltcalorsocalssue,suchasant-abortonortheenvronment.

8. “GeospatalAnalyssofTerrorstActvtes,”NIJGrant#2005-IJ-CX-0200.

9. Temporaldataonnternatonalterrorsts

arelmtedduetothesmallnumberofnter-natonalncdentsthathavetakenplacentheU.S.BecauseoftheFBI’ssuccessndsruptngplots,thenumberofcasesssmall.