An Agenda for Dublin
A Joint Programme for Dublin proposed by the
Dublin Regional Authority
and the
Dublin Employment Pact
JUNE 2003
Contents
1. Introduction and background 2
2. Population Growth and Spatial Planning 3
3. The Dublin Economy 4
4. Transport 5
5. Employment 6
6. Education and Skills 8
7. Housing 9
8. Drug Misuse and Alcohol Abuse 12
9. Immigration 16
10. Participation and governance in Dublin 20
11. Comparable EU city regions 21
12. Conclusions 23
13. Acknowledgements 25
1. Introduction and Background
Major economic change since the late 1990s has seen Dublin emerge as the powerhouse of the ‘Celtic Tiger’ and Ireland’s chief gateway to the global economy. The transformation of Dublin into a cutting edge economic leader has involved major social change and generated enormous demand on physical and social infrastructure. In highlighting these issues the Dublin Regional Authority and Dublin Employment Pact have sought to arrive at a common perspective and set of objectives for Dublin as it moves forward into the 21st century.
The key challenges facing the Dublin Region in this context of continued growth relate especially to spatial planning, inward investment policy and transportation, and there is now a growing awareness of the need to co-ordinate these developments at a Greater Dublin level. Although this need was strongly identified in the National Spatial Strategy, there remains considerable resistance to the development of Dublin, which is often erroneously regarded as contrary to the development needs of other regions. Such an attitude, however, takes little account of the specific needs of Dublin as Ireland’s gateway to the global economy, let alone of its well being as a functioning urban region. The fact is that the proper development of the Dublin Region is a pre-requisite for the development of the country as a whole and hence of its other regions.
The development of Dublin is also seeing a new coherence in the structures of public governance and, in tandem with this, in the tackling of a range of social policy issues of such central importance to the balanced, sustainable and equitable development of the region for the people who inhabit it. This is reflected in the broadening role and sophistication of local government, in the institution and progress of the City and County Development Boards, the consolidation of the local Partnerships and Enterprise Boards, as well as other local-level initiatives such as the Drug Task Forces and the Community Development Programme. While there is much focus currently on achieving a proper and balanced co-ordination and integration of these structures, the development of regional Dublin-wide co-ordination is still at an early stage, though the work of the Dublin Regional Authority and the Dublin Employment Pact has contributed new potential in this area.
In this context of a transformed and largely new economy and an emerging new governance structure in Dublin, the Dublin Regional Authority (DRA) and the Dublin Employment Pact (DEP) present this Agenda for Dublin as a consensus programme around the key issues facing the capital. Endorsed by the elected representatives composing the DRA and by the agencies and organisations composing the DEP, this Agenda sets out the responses of key representative social interests in Dublin to the challenges ahead.
______
Stanley Laing Philip O’Connor
Cathaoirleach Director
Dublin Regional Authority Dublin Employment Pact
2. Population growth and spatial planning
The population of Ireland is projected to continue to increase over the next 20 years, with over 30% of the population located in Dublin by 2031 (29% in 2001)[1]. The 2002 Census showed that significant population growth occurred in the outer suburbs since 1996 (e.g. Fingal +17%), while it actually fell in older inner suburbs, with population decline recorded in half the Dublin electoral districts since 1996. Overall, it is estimated that there will be a 17.9% population growth in Dublin over the period 2001-2031, compared to 24.4% in the Mid-Eastern Region and 12.3% in the state as a whole[2]. These trends have obvious major implications for the Greater Dublin area and must be taken into account if Ireland’s prosperity is to continue. Although national policy has begun to accept the unique needs of Dublin in this context[3], it remains compromised by pressures seeking the “regionalisation” of growth and its “dispersal” through the regions.
As leading experts on globalisation have demonstrated[4], networks of interlinked city economies increasingly drive the global economy, and Dublin has the potential to be Ireland’s major player in this global economy. In this context the infrastructural efficiency and social integration of cities are key elements in competitiveness, and both are issues with which Dublin is currently struggling. For Dublin to achieve its potential as an international Gateway (it is currently only 34th in size among European cities), particular strategies must be developed across a range of planning areas.
The absence of a definite regional strategy or plan for the development of land use and transportation in the Dublin Region before the publication of the Strategic Planning Guidelines for the Greater Dublin Area in 1999 has seen economic and population growth occurring in a strategically uncoordinated manner. In particular, failure to meet the region’s expanding infrastructural requirements is now placing serious constraints on the economic development of the region, especially as regards the mobility of goods and of the labour force, two key determinants of economic efficiency. In the Dublin Metropolitan Area, there has been a lack of coordination and strategic planning with regard to business location. The emergence of major employment centres at the edge of the city, particularly in close proximity to the M50, has resulted in an extended commuter belt and increasing traffic congestion from cross-city trips. It has also led to an urban pattern which is increasingly difficult to serve by public transport. Understanding this pattern and counteracting its negative impacts through long term strategic planning is vital to maximising economic and social benefit from economic growth and minimising the negative impacts of development.
The growth of Dublin is not and cannot be at the expense of other regions of the country, but is a specific phenomenon which must be managed and organised in its own right.
Recommendations:
Ø The spatial planning of a growing city must combine high-density development, efficient transport, multiple housing options, commercial and industrial clustering and environmental resource planning.
Ø Land use and transport planning at the Greater Dublin Area level must be accompanied by integrated framework policies on social development, economic and employment planning, and social inclusion.
3. The Dublin Economy
The transformation of the Dublin Economy – which effectively covers the Dublin and Mid-East Regions as well as Louth - commenced in the late 1980s and involved a radical shift away from older manufacturing industry towards services. This restructuring involved the widespread closure of older industries and consequent high unemployment. By 2002 the reversal in economic trends saw unemployment fall to 4% nationally and 2.9% in Dublin. These figures represent employment expansion over the period 1993 to 2000 of 150,000 to a total for Dublin of 534,000[5]. While the importance of IT and the software industry is widely recognised, and the Dublin Region is seen as a new technology led economy, it is essential that new and future growth areas are identified and systematic planning be undertaken regarding the infrastructural, training and other needs associated with such growth. In addition, an inward investment strategy needs to be developed for Dublin, targeting the types of industry Dublin will require in the future and eschewing those which would be detrimental to the overall development of the city.
In a recent report Forfás noted that weakening demand conditions are now spreading from the USA to all of Ireland’s largest export markets – a development reflected in slowing export growth by indigenous Irish companies in 2002-03. Other major risk factors presented by the global economic slowdown over the coming 6-12 months include:
· a downturn in Irish economy expenditures by multinationals in Ireland;
· an appreciation of the euro against sterling and the dollar;
· a further deterioration in equity prices;
· a decline in domestic Irish business and consumer spending and
· increased price competition in global markets.
While these are issues of national importance, it is essential that they also be viewed and responded to at the Dublin level through a coherent economic and investment policy tailored to the particular needs of the region.
Recommendations:
Ø A coherent economic planning structure must be developed at the level of the Greater Dublin Area, comprising representatives of the Dublin regional elements of all key economic development agencies, such as the IDA, Enterprise Ireland, the Dublin Enterprise Boards, FÁS, Forfás, Dublin Port and Airport, the local authorities, the City and County Development Boards and the relevant training and educational interests.
Ø A strategy needs to be developed for Dublin in relation to inward investment, targeting the needs of a large urban region with a Gateway role for Ireland in the global economy.
Ø Economic development must be accompanied by a human resources policy, which focuses of the employment and skill development needs of the population of the region.
4. Transport
Traffic congestion in Dublin has been estimated by Dublin Chamber of Commerce to cost the economy over €500m annually. Congestion will only be resolved by provision of an efficient public transport system, which has been defined as the ability to travel between any two points in the city with only one change of mode of transport and a walking time of not more than 10 minutes[6]. Such a scenario may seem utopian for Dublin, but it must be achievable and the commitment made. One of the major economic consequences of a chronically poor public transport system is a non-mobile workforce, whose choices of where to live and work are restricted by the lack of effective transport. In tandem with this, residential mobility is further restricted by high housing costs. Commuting levels are increased as people are reluctant to or cannot afford to move house closer to their place of employment. Commuting of two and more hours per day is highly wasteful and exhaustive of human resources. International expertise has quantified the economic impact of labour force immobility, and suggested that Dublin is seriously down the European league in this regard and fast approaching crisis point[7]. The social consequences of a poor transport system are equally alarming: the restriction of people to particular areas limits their access to services, education, employment, family and social life and cultural engagement, and hence reinforces social exclusion.
Recommendations:
Ø The economic cost to Dublin of inefficient transport systems is threatening the very basis of the prosperity of recent years and must be tackled at region-wide level with the requisite urgency and authority.
Ø Given the social costs of an inefficient and unreliable transport system, all public transport plans should be subject to a social audit to assess their impact on social life, community participation and social inclusion.
Ø Transport planning must include local transport plans that maximise the mobility of people within and between communities, to and from employment and education options, and to and from services and facilities. Different modes, types and systems of transport (including community-based services), as well as flexible and reliable ticketing and time-tabling are not add-on luxuries but essential prerequisites.
Ø Increased mobility is also achieved through reducing travel times, not least through the spatial locating of services and facilities to maximise accessibility.
5. Employment
By 2001, employment in the Dublin Region had increased by 160,000 (or 30%) over the period 1973-2001 to an all-time high of 544,000, with official unemployment of 2.9%, its lowest ever recorded[8]. For the Greater Dublin Area, the development since 1996 has been as follows:
Labour Force in Dublin Region and Mid-East Region
Dublin & Mid-East / Not in Labour force 000’s / In employment 000's / Unemployed 000's / Total labour force 000'sApril 1996 / 461.1 / 548.7 / 73.7 / 622.4
April 2001 / 443.3 / 735.3 / 22.0 / 757.3
Change 1996-2001 / -17.8 / 186.6 / -51.7 / 134.9
The profile of employment has also changed dramatically, with a major shift to service industry jobs and away from manufacturing, an increase in the female participation rate to 47% (and nearly 70% among the 25-45 age group), and the increasingly high-skill nature of new employment[9]. People of post-retirement age wishing to work are also increasingly accessing the labour market, and this group will form a growing element of the workforce[10]. Although IDA strategic planning has stipulated that at least 50% of green field inward investment (FID) be located in the BMW Region[11], high-skill global investment will nevertheless continue to locate near a global centre with its infrastructure and workforce. With Ireland now the leading exporter of software in the world, 71% of indigenous and 76% of overseas companies engaged in this sector in Ireland are located in the greater Dublin area, employing 9,000 people[12]. Besides the traditional industries of construction, food and drink, paper, and administration, other key new sectors are teleservices (5,000), financial services (30,000), telecommunications, pharmaceuticals and the community and voluntary sector, which now directly employs over 10,000 people in Dublin[13]. There is also a growing immigrant labour force in Dublin of approximately 50,000 in areas of high-skill demand and in low-skill areas such as the hotel and catering trade[14].
Although Dublin’s economy has grown substantially throughout the 1990s as the Irish economy grew, unemployment rates have begun to rise again, reaching 4.6% in the third quarter of 2002 (QHNS, 2002). Over the last year, a modest growth in national employment has masked a decline in private sector employment while the unemployment rate in Dublin has grown faster than the national average. In addition to this, the method of measuring unemployment excludes many people who are long-term unemployed, particularly older men who have been unemployed for a number of years and groups such as lone parents. It is estimated that these groups now total approx. 30,000 in Dublin[15]. Considerable additional numbers of are still excluded from the labour market due especially to lack of childcare facilities or barriers faced by other groups, such as people with disabilities[16]. Long-term unemployment and labour market exclusion is concentrated in disadvantaged areas, and ten of the twelve designated most disadvantaged areas in Ireland are located in Dublin, in communities with a combined population of 264,000 people[17]. Dublin has also a higher rate of early school–leaving than the national average and the lowest rates of participation in 3rd level education[18]. In these more uncertain economic times, there is a particular need to address the weaknesses in the Dublin labour market and to enhance the skills and capacities of those most vulnerable to an economic downturn to ensure that Dublin and its people can realise their full economic potential.