<20090813>
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Andrea Marcello Bassi <
Akira Onishi (Prof. Dr) <
Peter O. Jack <
Walter G. Ollor, Ph.D. <
Josie Lianna Kaye <
References:
(a) (20090811) (1) "New Global Agenda" by Jean Francois
(b) (06/25/09)-C (1) SD simulation models of Nigeria and 15 ECOWAS countries by Millennium Institute and (2) Global Early Warning System
(c) (01/25/09) Invitation to a blog to discuss the Design of Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming (GCEPG)
(d) (20090810) Preliminary planning mtg for the Joint conference/workshop with CICR of Columbia University
Dear Andrea:
(1) Many thanks for your msg (ATTACHMENT I) in response to Reference (a) above.
(2) Many thanks also for your msg (ATTACHMENT II) in response to Reference (b) above.
I am very happy to know that you have visited Reference (c) above, since I briefly described how to interface dispersed simulation models.
(3) Referring to your concern mentioned in ATTACHMENT II, pls assure that every country will have their choice of simulation methodologies, either (a) system dynamics, (b) econometrics, or (c) input-output, etc., as far as they produce time-series table — see Item (5) of the Reference (c) above. The variables related among countries will be interlinked through a table of the central database shown in the Item (6) of the Reference (c) above.
(4) Currently, IBM is setting up a mtg at which time we can discuss how those operations can be done in their Cloud Computing system.
I hope that, even though those simulation models may be accommodated in their cloud, real simulationists can access their country models from their physical locations, e.g., Nigeria, Lebanon, India, etc., etc.. This will alleviate, at least, the burdens of taking care of hardware and software of their computers.
(5) The other really wild idea is the extension of analogy of repetitive analog computer which I used for the simulation of chemical reaction at Shell Chemical Company (a subsidiary of Royal Dutch Shell Oil Company of London) at Rockefeller Building in Manhattan almost a half century ago.
If the IBM Cloud Computing capacity allows, those country simulation models may be run repetitively, say, from the year 2000 to 2050, so that the output variables would be shown in computer screen as if stationary, even though there would have changes on the policy parameters — see below.
I once proposed a global peace gaming to cope with the oil crisis in early 1970s at the First International Conference on Computer Communications held in Washington, DC, in October, 1973. An outline of the hierarchical structure and distributed components of an integrated, interactive peace gaming/simulation system for energy, economics, and foreign trade in the USA and the Japanese sides was depicted as;
Each block in the figure represented dissimilar computers in those countries interconnected through data telecom network (e.g., Internet nowadays). These computers included simulation models designated in each block. All models would be executed in concertedly via satellite and terrestrial telecommunication links.
For example, suppose pollution in Japan exceeded a certain allowable level, say, around 1977, the Japanese expert watching it on the display unit would stop the entire simulation. All participants, wherever they were located, would then try to find, with the use of the conferencing system, a consensus on a new set of pseudo-alternative policy parameters which would be executed until a new crisis appears, say, around 1984 on the figure — in the US side this time. The process would be repeated for rational policy analysis, based on facts and figures, and with international cooperation of experts in both countries.
BTW, this is the so-called “man-machine interaction mode” as similar to the flight simulator for airplane crew training.
(6) As you said in ATTACHMENT I, I agree with you that a test/pilot project may be done — say, as connecting your Nigeria and the US model (both in system dynamics methodology) for verifications of Al Gore’s and Obama’s propositions to replace oil (probably from Nigeria) to generate electricity with wind energy < This may be done with the following sequences;
(a) Both models will be in the same computer, but as separate simulation models,
(b) They may be resided in two separate computers which are to be interconnected through Ethernet cable,
(c) Both models will be put into a Cloud Computing facility, say, IBM’s.
Anyway, let’s discuss these technical matters more in details from now on — particularly when we meet at our next mtg with Josie of the CICR of Columbia University about the planning of our joint conference in the coming spring semester — see Reference (d) above.
(7) Referring to your comments (red marked) in ATTACHMENT II, I am very happy to learn that the ECOWAS is now organizing specialists for construction of simulation models of their 15 consortium member countries — eventually who are to be among academic communities of those countries — their participations would be vital necessity if your model would include many sectors, such as agriculture, energy, water resources, health, construction, tourism, etc.
I agree with you that it would be ideal if your MI could affiliate with the United Nations University’s Research and Training Program. Not only our GUS, but also I myself may be able to help to this direction as seeking the Japanese government’s support with Japanese specialists. Josie of the CICR of Columbia University may also be interested in helping them in terms of resource scarcity and international security issues. Let’s talk about these at our next mtg with Josie when we will discuss about our forthcoming joint conference to be held next spring semester.
BTW, a recent Japanese newspaper reported that the Japan Development Bank submitted their major policy recommendations to the Nigerian government — I think this is a very good sign since the Japanese government has been shy away from the Nigerian government as to be the most corrupt prone government. As I might have mentioned in my previous list distribution, the president of this bank is the husband of Madam Sadako Ogata (*), Secretary General of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) under the Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs — after she was the commissioner for refugees at the UN Headquarters in Manhattan. Her husband was with me on the same boat coming to the US as Fulbright exchange students almost 55 years ago.
(*) See her photo with me in;
(02/05/09) Sala Simone's "Brief update from Bangladesh" and possible approach to JICA in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
BTW also, you may ask Peter’s and Walter’s help for the construction of Nigerian simulation model — Peter has;
(a) Attended the UNU R&T seminar in Macau, China last February,
(b) Attended the System Dynamics course of your Millennium Institute at the University of Bergen, Norway (your alma mater) last spring,
(c) Received a grant from the Italian government through the CICR of Columbia University for his “Niger Delta Renaissance” Project.
(8) Hope to see you at our next mtg with Josie — I will inform you its exact date as soon as I hear from her -- probably in the week of September 6th at the CICR of Columbia University.
Keep in touch.
Best, Tak
ATTACHMENT I
From: Andrea Bassi <
Date: Wed, 12 Aug 2009 15:53:55 +0400
To: Tak Utsumi <
Cc: Hans R Herren <>, Adedoyin Onasanya <
Subject: Re: [gu-new] (20090811) (1) "New Global Agenda" by Jean Francois
Rischard and (2) Global Early Warning System
Dear Tak,
I apologize for the late reply. Reading your message below I feel
pressured to inform you that we should carefully evaluate the options
for utilizing two different model concepts for our project. This stems
from the fact that the data needed may be different, as well as the
skills to further improve and refine the model may not be similar (on
top of different issues in dealing with cloud computing due to the
software used by the models).
Certainly we can start data collection from local sources using cloud
computing, and then run some pilot tests with a smaller version of
either models before entering a large scale implementation phase.
Please give me a little more time to review Prof. Onishi's FUGI model,
which looks excellent at first sight, before providing more details.
MI is also moving forward towards the creation of a variety of
national models, hopefully 100+ over the next two years and currently
I am in the middle of 3 projects that have unfortunately converged to
a very similar deadline for delivery of the final reports.
Thank you for your patience.
Best,
Andrea
ATTACHMENT II
(Red marked portions below are Andrea’s replies.)
From: Andrea Bassi <
Date: Thu, 13 Aug 2009 16:41:12 +0400
To: Tak Utsumi <
Subject: Re: [gu-new] (06/25/09)-C (1) SD simulation models of Nigeria and 15
ECOWAS countries by Millennium Institute and (2) Global Early Warning System
Dear Tak, many thanks for this email and apologies for the late reply.
Please see m comments below.
Best,
Andrea
On Jun 26, 2009, at 2:23 AM, Tak Utsumi wrote:
> Dear E-Colleagues:
> (1) I am re-sending this because I made a serious mistake and had to correct
>the URLs in this distribution.
> Awfully sorry for this duplicate.
> Best, Tak
> <June 25, 2009-C>
> Archived distributions can be retrieved at;
> This archive includes a html version of this list distribution and its
> MS/WORD version with its filename as “month-date-year.doc.” You can
> also access all of its attachments, if any.
> Andrea Marcello Bassi <
> Hans Rudolf Herren, Ph.D. <
> Leslaw Michnowski <
> Akira Onishi, Prof. Dr. <
> Dr. Amit K. Maitra <
> Dr. Harold P. Sjursen <
> Carl Skelton <
> References:
> (a) Joel S. Yudken and Andrea M. Bassi
> “Climate Policy and Energy-Intensive Manufacturing: Impacts and
> Options” (April, 2009)
> (b) Andrea M. Bassi, Allan E. Baer
> “Quantifying cross-sectoral impacts of investments in climate change
> mitigation in Ecuador” (May, 2009)
> (c) Andrea M. Bassi, Robert Powers, William Schoenberg
> “An integrated approach to energy prospects for North America and
> the rest of the world” (January, 2009)
> (d) Andrea M. Bassi, Joel S. Yudken, Matthias Ruth
> “Climate policyimpactsonthecompetitivenessofenergy-intensive
> manufacturingsectors” (January 2009)
> (e) Onishi, A, "Alternative path of the global economy against CO2
> emissions: Policy simulations of
> FUGI global modeling system" <
> and Appendix B
> (f) (05/27/09) Possible Global Early Warning System with GCEPG/
> GSEEED Projects
> (g) (02/18/09) (a) Presenting "World GRID Simulation" idea at the
> G20 mtg in London in April, 2009 and (b) Creation of Global Early Warning
> System at the UN
> (h) Leslaw Michnowski “To Overcome the Global Crisis: Toward
> sustainable development policy and economy,” Presentation on anti-crisis
> conclusions, by Sustainable Development Information Society Forum – Poland
and <
> Dear Andrea:
> (1) It was my great pleasure to have met with you through Skype
> videoconferencing during our first planning workshop of our GCEPG/
> GSEEED project at the Polytechnic Institute of NYU on 6/18th, with Harold,
> Carl and Amit. It was very productive mtg with intensive discussions.
> (2) Many thanks for your msg (ATTACHMENT I) with very interesting
> excellent papers — References (a) to (d) above. I shall read them from now on.
> I am very please to hear that your Millennium Institute will construct
> national energy economic simulation models with system dynamics
> methodology of 15 countries of the Economic Community Of West African States
> (ECOWAS)
--
> starting with Nigeria.
> BTW, who would be your Nigerian counterpart working together with
> you?
The ECOWAS is leading the effort, two consultants form each country
will be developing the model with us and will be trained by MI.
WOrkshops are likely going to be organized in various countries as
well as follow up meetings. Governments will be directly involved and
exposed to all steps of the modeling process and analysis, but the
exact procedure is still being finalized.
> Have you already selected your counterparts in other 15 ECOWAS
> countries, who would take care of their models and updating necessary data, etc.? Who
> would take care of capacity building of the would-be decision-makers with the
> use of those simulation models in those countries? These matters would
> need to be formulated along the series of our forthcoming workshops.
Yes, we are now focusing on developing the project, but longer term
maintenance and improvement of model sis also needed. For the ECOWAS
project we are targeting the two consultants and eventually academia
(both for additional training, data collection and updating of the
model). This whole process will become easier when MI will be part of
the UNU system.
> (3) As mentioned during our mtg, those models will eventually be
> located in their own country to be taken care of by their experts, and yet to be
> interconnected each other so that all of them will act as if a single
> simulation model in a global scale virtual super computer.
Yes, I agree. And cloud computing is also a good option.
> (4) Since you and Hans agreed to make your Millennium Institute as the
> global integrator of simulation models, this would be a very good starting
> point of our GCEPG/GSEEED projects — particularly for the quantitative
> analysis and verification of the energy policies proposed by Mr. Al
> Gore and President Obama;
I agree, as soon as the models are completed, we will be able to run
scenarios on energy and many other policies.
> As mentioned during our mtg, this will then implies that you would
> need to have US energy economic model, too, which is to be interlinked with
> the Nigerian model. I was very delighted to hear that you already have
> several US models.
> (5) Pls start contemplating how to interlink those models — pls visit my
> following list distribution for my thought how to do it;
> (01/25/09) Invitation to a blog to discuss the Design of Globally
> Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming (GCEPG)
I share your thoughts. We are now developing a global model for UNEP's
Green Economy Report and at the same time we are gearing up for the
creation of a variety of country models that will allow us to
investigate country details and the global picture at the same time.
This is needed to better estimate how the different country models
(and their modules) will interact.
> As discussed during our mtg, I would prefer to have a central
> database which is to be located at the Polytechnic Institute of NYU at the initial
> stage of our development, where data inter-linkage would be made among
> participating distributed simulation models, instead of direct inter-linkage
> between two countries.
> Such central database, when completed as a whole (*), may correspond
> to the United Nations, and would provide us with global picture of world
> phenomena — in a sense, our project is to build a mini electronic United Nations
> (i.e., eUN)!!
> (*) for instance, as utilizing Prof. Onishi’s FUGI econometric model which
> already has over 130 country models (Reference (e) above) — he has
> agreed to split them to their own countries.
There are challenges to the use of an econometric model, especially if
we want to focus on longer term projections (30 to 50 years in the
future), and if we are using incomplete or potentially unreliable data
series (such as the case of many african countries).
> (6) In due course, this may meet with Leslaw’s idea of constructing
> an early warning system (Reference (f) above).
> Dear Leslaw:
> How do you think? Farfetched? Many thanks for your msg (ATTACHMENT II) and
> excellent write-up on the Global Early Warning System (Reference
> (f) to (h) above — many thanks for your quoting our GCEPG/GSEEED project in
> the Reference (h) as the way to constructing this warning system).
> I would like to formulate those procedures at our planned joint
> conference/workshop with the Center for International Conflict Resolution
> (CICR) of Columbia University in this coming fall, which we discussed
> briefly during our mtg at the Poly on 6/18th.
Looking forward to the next steps in preparing the conference!
> Keep in touch.
> Best, Tak
> ATTACHMENT I
> From: Andrea Bassi <
> Date: Thu, 18 Jun 2009 17:28:04 -0400
> To: Tak Utsumi <>, Amit Maitra <>,
> Harold Sjursen <>, Carl Skelton <
> Cc: Andrea Bassi <>, Hans R Herren
> Subject: Follow up to our conversation today
> Dear all,
> It has been a pleasure meeting you and talking to you today.
> This is to send you the papers I mentioned earlier. These are my
> latest publications, and more will be available soon.
> Harold, I will keep you posted on research involving SFI. I will be
> in Santa Fe/Los Alamos soon, both in June and July.
> Looking forward to the next steps.
> Best,
> Andrea
> Andrea M. Bassi
> Deputy Director, Project Development and Modeling
> Millennium Institute
> 2111 Wilson Blvd, Suite 700
> Arlington, VA 22201
> USA
> Tel: +1 703 351 5081
> Mobile: +1 571 721 8275
> ATTACHMENT II
> From: <
> Date: Wed, 18 Mar 2009 00:34:38 +0100
> To: Tak Utsumi <>, gu-new <
> Subject: To UN and G@) Leaders - World GRID SD information system
> to avoid global catastrophe
> Dear Tak,
> I’d like to inform you that text – To UN and G20 Leaders addressed
> - we were talking about (attachment with new footnotes) was presented in New
> York during UN IPM CSD-17 conference, and published in “Europe’s World” -
> -US
> n-US>
> 7/ToovercometheGlobalCrisisTowardsaSustainableDevelopmentPolicy.aspx
> 27/
> ToovercometheGlobalCrisisTowardsaSustainableDevelopmentPolicy.aspx> ,
> as well as (excerpts) in: „Pelican Web, E-Journal of Solidarity,
> Sustainability and Nonviolence”, (Letters), March 2009 –
> Regards,
> Leslaw
List of Distribution
Andrea Marcello Bassi
Deputy Director, Project Development and Modeling
Millennium Institute
2111 Wilson Blvd. Suite 750
Arlington, VA 22201
USA
Tel: +1 703 351 5081
Mobile: +1 571 721 8275
Akira Onishi (Prof. Dr)
Professor Emeritus Soka University
Director, Centre for Global Modeling
2-16-7-1915
Konan, Minato-ku,
Tokyo 108-0075
Japan
Peter O. Jack
Training Consultant/Director
National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA)
Federal Ministry of Science & Technology
Plot 695, Port-Harcourt Crescent
Off Gimbiya Street,
Area 11, Garki, Abuja - Nigeria
Tel: 09-3142925 (Ext 102)
Fax: 09-3142924
GSM: 08023112676
GSM: 0805 5007777
08033122299
or
PhD Candidate,
International Information Technology Policy Program (ITPP),
Technology Management, Economics and Policy Program (TEMEP),
College of Engineering,
Seoul National University
Seoul, Korea
ROK: +8210-8680-5455
+8210-2897-7761
NIG: +234-80-2311-2676
UK: +44-770-483-9569
Walter G. Ollor, Ph.D.
Professor
College of Business and Management Sciences
Igbinedion University, Okada (IUO)
P.M.B 0006
Benin City
Edo State, Nigeria
Tel:+234-803-709-5725
Josie Lianna Kaye
Columbia University (MA), Sciences Po Paris (MA)
Assistant Director, Center for International Conflict Resolution, CICR
1325 International Affairs Building
420 West, 118th Street, MC 3369
New York, NY 10027
Tel: +1-212-854-5623
Cel: +13473239571
France: +33632343826
UK: +447891681902