The Economic Impact of Same-Sex Weddings on Sonoma County
Embargoed until 6am 10/06/08 for public release
Robert Eyler, Ph.D.
Chair, Department of Economics
Director, Center for Regional Economic Analysis
Sonoma State University
1801 East Cotati Avenue
Rohnert Park, CA 94928-3609
707-664-4256
Table of Contents
Executive Summary / 2
Introduction / 4
Estimating the Increased Demand for Wedding Services / 5
Housing as Potential Demand / 6
Tourism Data / 7
Wedding Expenditure Data / 8
Calculating the Initial Economic Impact / 9
Effective Demand of Same-Sex Weddings In Sonoma County / 10
Wedding Ceremony and Tourism Expenditures / 14
Direct Tax Impacts / 15
Economic Impact Analysis / 16
Brief Overview of Economic Impact Methodology / 16
Economic Impacts / 17
Conclusions / 24
References / 25
Figures and Tables
Table or Figure / PageSummary Table of Effective Demand and Expenditures / 3
Summary Table of Results, 2009 - 2011 / 3
Table 1: Unmarried Partner Households, American Community Survey, 2006 / 7
Table 2: Unmarried Partner Households, American Community Survey, 2007-2008 / 11
Table 3: Effective Demand for Same-Sex Weddings in California,
Out of State Residents, 2009-2011 / 12
Table 4: Effective Demand for Same-Sex Weddings in Sonoma County, 2009-2011 / 13
Table 5: Expenditures on Same-Sex Weddings and Associated Tourism Sonoma County, 2009-2011 / 15
Table 6: Summary Employment Impacts of Same-Sex Marriages
Sonoma County, 2009-2011 / 20
Table 7: Summary Revenue Impacts of Same-Sex Marriages
Sonoma County, 2009-2011 / 21
Table 8: Summary Wage Impacts of Same-Sex Marriages
Sonoma County, 2009-2011 / 22
Table 9: Summary Fiscal Impacts of Same-Sex Marriages
Sonoma County, 2009-2011 / 23
Figure 1: Economic Impact Concept / 18
Executive Summary
This report examines the positive impacts on the Sonoma County economy of the continued recognition in California of marriage equality for same-sex couples through the defeat of Proposition 8. Although current tourism trends suggest that primarily California same-sex couples will come to Sonoma County for their weddings, Sonoma County will attract couples (and their guests) from all over the United States. The resulting increased tourism business drives new economic benefits, due both to increased direct expenditures on wedding and associated services and to indirect and induced effects on local businesses beyond the directly-affected services.
Local tourism in general will be positively impacted as couples choose Sonoma County for their wedding, regardless of their residential location. In addition, there are positive fiscal budget impacts of allowing same-sex couples to come to Sonoma County to obtain a legally-recognized marriage. These include increased marriage licenses fees, sales taxes, transitory occupancy taxes (TOT), and other revenues for the local government. There may also be costs to the local government as a result of such marriages, but because the data do not exist to consider how same-sex marriages may negatively impact local economies, those issues are not mentioned here.
The Census Bureau and assumptions from Sears and Badgett (2008) provide relevant data regarding the effective demand for same-sex weddings performed and celebrated in Sonoma County. Using industry statistics, the average amount of wedding and tourism expenditures can be estimated. Collectively, such data provide an amount of direct expenditures and tax revenues for the state and local governments from Sonoma County’s augmented activity. The economic impact analysis estimates additional revenues, jobs, wages, and taxes generated by these direct expenditures. A range of effects is provided by this study, reflecting a broad range of wedding and associated tourism levels and choices. If Proposition 8 is defeated, Sonoma County and its tourism firms should consider a marketing campaign aimed at same-sex couples who reside outside of California to attract a larger portion of the market than is currently served and thereby further increase economic benefits to Sonoma County and its residents.
Summary Table of Effective Demand and Expenditures
Model Components and Estimates / Out-Of StateCouples / In-State
Couples / Totals
Same-Sex Households
in US, 2008 / 674,548 / 111,289 / 785,837
Same-Sex Households to CA
to Marry, 2008 / 69,894 / 55,645 / 125,539
Same-Sex Households
to Sonoma County
to Marry, 2009-2011 / 38 / 1,496 / 1,534
Wedding and Tourism Spending per Couple, 2009-2011 / $5,942 – $13,730 / $13,730 - $27,460 / $13,555 - $27,180
Tax Revenue from
Spending per couple,
2009-2011 / $552 - $1,365 / $1,365 - $2,758 / $1,345 – $2,723
Direct Expenditure on Wedding and
Associated Tourism, 2009-2011 / $0.2 - $0.5 mil / $20.7- $41.2 mil / $20.9- $41.7 mil
Direct State and Local Tax Revenue,
2009-2011 / $0.02 - $0.1 mil / $1.63- $3.3 mil / $1.65 - $3.2 mil
Summary Table of Results, 2009 – 2011
New Jobs / New Wages / State and LocalGov Revenue / Business Revenue
2009 / 275 - 553 / $8.7 - $17.6 mil / $1.5 – $3.0 mil / $25.6 - $51.4 mil
2010 / 89 – 179 / $2.9 – $5.7 mil / $0.51 – 0.99 mil / $8.4 – $16.8 mil
2011 / 66 - 133 / $2.1 - $4.3 mil / $0.38 - $0.74 mil / $6.2 - $12.5 mil
Total Impacts / 430 - 865 / $13.7 - $27.6 mil / $2.4 – $4.7 mil / $40.2 - $80.7 mil
The Economic Impact of Same-Sex Weddings on Sonoma County[1]
Introduction
This report focuses on the economic impact of the continued recognition of same-sex marriages in California on the Sonoma County economy. There are three strands of effects. First, there is increased tourism for Sonoma County as a result of same-sex couples choosing Sonoma County as a destination wedding location. These couples will come from places outside of Sonoma County, where most live elsewhere in California; Sonoma County exports services for such weddings to anyone that lives outside the county. Second, there are indirect and induced effects on many businesses beyond the directly-affected services provided, such as event facilities, caterers and florists. Multiplier effects touch most businesses, as even more jobs and wages flow from the additional expenditures. Finally are the fiscal budget impacts of the total increase in local expenditures from continuing marriage equality. These include marriage licenses fees, sales taxes, transitory occupancy taxes (TOT), and other government revenues. While there may also be costs to the local government as a result of these marriages, because historic data do not exist to consider how same-sex marriages may impact local economies, in both positive and negative ways, these issues are mentioned only briefly in this report. It is important to see the results of this study as those that would result from a nation-wide increase in weddings, regardless of a couple’s demography.
This report is split into four sections. The first is a brief review of the studies and steps used in calculating the number of same-sex couples who are likely to have a wedding in Sonoma County is Proposition 8 (“Prop 8”) fails. This includes couples coming from all geographic points in the United States. The second section uses that data to estimate the amount of total, direct spending that may occur as a result of these couples coming to Sonoma County to celebrate their marriage. This estimation involves some assumptions about average wedding cost and additional tourism expenses of wedding guests. These assumptions come from either studies on both wedding and tourism demand and also the types of expenditures specifically in Sonoma County. The third section is the economic impact analysis itself, where the multiplier effects are added to the direct expenses above. The final section concludes the report and provides summary data.
Estimating the Increased Demand for Wedding Services
A recent study by the Williams Institute at the School of Law at UCLA estimates the volume of same-sex weddings and their economic impact on California (Sears and Badgett, 2008). Our study follows their methodology and logic[2]. We begin with estimating the number of weddings that would take place as a result of legalized marriage in the United States. Since the recent California Supreme Court decision on June 16, 2008, there has been some impact. This study focuses estimates a range of impact figures concerning future wedding and associated tourism demand. The range is based on recognizing that Sonoma County, as a destination for weddings and tourism is likely to have a wide array of expenditures and visitors rather than one set; a range also provides a broader number of outcomes for policy makers to consider than a point estimate.
A mix of studies and web-based sources provides statistics on weddings and tourism estimate direct expenditures on these services. Data exist about the Sonoma County tourism economy specifically that can help shed light on estimating both the number of weddings likely to occur and subsequent expenditures locally. These studies and data provide a foundation for estimating the events that trigger the economic impacts shown below. Because the allowance of same-sex marriages has little history in the United States, much less California and Sonoma County, data specific to this question are somewhat difficult to find.
Households as Potential Demand
We first assume that current unmarried, same-sex couples currently identified as a household are most likely to pursue a wedding if Prop 8 is defeated. According to the American Community Survey (ACS) of the Census Bureau, California has 13.9% of the unmarried, same-sex households in the United States. The ACS estimates there are 778,867 unmarried, same-sex households in the United States. Table 1 summarizes the state data and the national number of same-sex households estimated in the 2006 ACS.
Once the number of households is determined, an estimated number of households to be married in California must then be calculated. Sears and Badgett (2008) provide some background on this estimation for California as a whole, as do Dean Runyan Associates (2008) and D.K. Shifflet (2007) in studies for the California Tourism Bureau. Sears and Badgett (2008) estimate that 50% of California’s same-sex couples will marry in the next three years if California legitimizes these unions; they further estimate that 25% of same-sex couples from California’s major tourism states choose to be married in California. Another reason these couples may travel to California from other states is the likelihood their California marriage will be recognized by their state of residence. Because many other states are less likely to recognize such a union, Sears and Badgett (2008) assume that in the remaining states only 5% of same-sex couples will come to California to be married.
Table 1: Unmarried Partner Households, American Community Survey, 2006[3]
State / Total Households / Unmarried-partner households / Male-Male / Female-Female / Same-SexHouseholds
California / 12,151,227 / 737,192 / 62,808 / 45,926 / 108,734
Texas / 8,109,388 / 369,951 / 28,156 / 25,052 / 53,208
Florida / 7,106,042 / 430,009 / 29,976 / 22,010 / 51,986
New York / 7,088,376 / 385,499 / 27,757 / 23,454 / 51,211
Illinois / 4,724,252 / 241,752 / 17,029 / 13,403 / 30,432
Pennsylvania / 4,845,603 / 250,139 / 15,042 / 14,600 / 29,642
Ohio / 4,499,506 / 242,352 / 14,835 / 13,660 / 28,495
Georgia / 3,376,763 / 164,502 / 14,329 / 10,856 / 25,185
Massachusetts / 2,446,485 / 138,989 / 11,789 / 11,866 / 23,655
Michigan / 3,869,117 / 207,048 / 11,574 / 11,871 / 23,445
North Carolina / 3,454,068 / 162,141 / 12,810 / 9,355 / 22,165
New Jersey / 3,135,490 / 147,956 / 11,421 / 9,984 / 21,405
Washington / 2,471,912 / 161,058 / 11,005 / 9,228 / 20,233
Virginia / 2,905,071 / 128,147 / 10,366 / 8,729 / 19,095
All Other States / 41,434,102 / 2,250,727 / 138,147 / 132,829 / 270,976
United States / 111,617,402 / 6,017,462 / 417,044 / 362,823 / 779,867
Source: Bureau of Census, American Community Survey
Tourism Data
Once these numbers are determined, a focus on Sonoma County can take place, including intrastate flows. It is important to also estimate how many same-sex couples living within California will choose Sonoma County over their home county for a wedding ceremony because Sonoma County draws most of its tourists from within California. Shifflet (2007) provides an estimate of the Sonoma County tourism flows in terms of overall California tourism. First separating business from leisure travel, Shifflet (2007) also separates resident from non-resident travel. This separation provides a distinction between those that arrive from outside California and those who live here traveling to Sonoma County. The average percentage of California tourism that comes from outside the state to Sonoma County is 1.085% and 2.715% of intrastate tourism by Californians between 2003 and 2006 (Shifflet, p. 27). These numbers are used below to estimate how many couples and guests will travel to Sonoma County to participate in and attend a wedding, its reception and associated services.
Sonoma County releases a tourism report annually through its Economic Development Board (Moody’s, 2008)[4]. The 2008 report provides data on Sonoma County’s tourism market that also help shape some of the conclusions below. First, approximately 61% of the tourists in Sonoma County originate within four specific areas of California; these include the San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose area, Los Angeles, Sacramento and Yolo Counties, and San Diego (Moody’s, 2008, p. 13). In all, California residents make up approximately 72.5% of Sonoma County’s tourists; 21.4% are from other states and 6.1% are international (Ibid, p. 17). This implies an additional layer of spending on same-sex weddings, assuming those attending a wedding follow tourism trends.
Wedding Expenditure Data
The Wedding Report (www.theweddingreport.com) is the key source for specific wedding data. Following the Census Bureau, this website provides information down to the zip code level on wedding expenditures and other statistics involving wedding ceremonies. The Wedding Report provides an estimation of wedding expenditures to help estimate the economic impacts as described below. As in Sears and Badgett (2008), the average cost of a wedding may be different depending on where the couple originates; as they did, we assume that out-of-state couples will spend roughly 10% at a minimum of what in-state couples do on a ceremony, while those who live in California spend 25% of the average wedding cost as a conservative estimate. Out-of-state (OOS) couples are assumed to spend further on tourism-like expenditures including air travel, car rental and hotel stays. For any couple, there is a ceremony and tourism element to the total wedding expenditure[5]. Different from Sears and Badgett (2008), we estimate for OOS couples spending 25% of the average and in-state couples spending 50%. This mix provides a range of figures below rather than a point estimate.