Submitted By: APEC Climate Center

2008/SOM3/ISTWG/SYM/001

Program

Submitted by: APEC Climate Center

APEC Climate Symposium
Lima, Peru
19-21 August 2008
APEC Climate Symposium 2008
Tuesday, August 19, 2008 Museo de la Nacion (National Museum) Lima, Peru
8:30-8:55 / Registration
8:55-9:50 / Opening Ceremony
8:55-9:00 / Opening remarks / Dr. W-J. Lee, Executive Director, APCC
(optional) / Congratulatory address / Mr. Yung-Suh Park, Program Director, APEC Secretariat
9:00-9:10 / Congratulatory address / Mr. Peter Chen, WMO representative/
The Chief of Data Processing and Forecasting Systems Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services, WMO
9:10-9:20 / Congratulatory address / Prof. In-Sik Kang (SNU, Korea), Co-Chair of APCC’s SAC
Co-Chair, APCC SAC
9:20-9:30 / Congratulatory address / Maj. Gen. P.A.F. (Ret.) Wilar Gamarra Molina,
Executive President, SENAMHI, Peru
9:30-9:50 / Congratulatory message and Inauguration / Dr. Antonio Brack, Environment Minister, Peru
9:50-10:10 / Group Photo
10:10-10:40 / Keynote Lecture
SP-01 Seasonal Forecasting in the Provision of Meteorological Services / Mr. Peter Chen, WMO Representative
10:40-11:00 / Coffee Break
11:00-14:15 (includes lunch) / Session 1 / Issues and challenges in Regional climate prediction, with special attention to America
Chair: Prof. A. D. Moura, INMET, Brazil
Rapporteur: Mr. A. F. Jamaluddin, MMD, Malaysia
11:00-11:15 / 1-01 How well are Southern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns predicted by seasonal climate models? / Dr. T. Ambrizzi,University of São Paulo Brazil
11.15-11:30 / 1-02 Seasonal climate forecast over Northeast Brazil : Evaluation of models and applications / Dr. A. D. Moura,INMET, Brazil
11:30-11:45 / 1-03 Abnormal late season cold surges during Asian winter monsoon 2005 / Prof. C. P. Chang,NPS, USA
11:45-13:15 / Lunch
13:15-13:30 / 1-04 Seasonal Climate Predictions in Peru / Eng. Carmen Reyes, SENAMHI, Peru
13:30-13:45 / 1-05 Indonesia Mitigation and Adaptation Program in Responding to Climate Change Issue / Mr. Yunus Swarinoto, BMG, Indonesia
13:45-14:00 / 1-06 Implementation of regional models
for climate prediction in Chile / Dr. Jorge Carrasco, National Weather Service of Chile, Chile
14:00-14:15 / 1-07 Advances on statistical and dynamical downscaling for seasonal prediction in western South America / Dr. Affonso S. Mascarenhas, CIIFEN, Ecuador
14:15-16:15 / Session II / Applications of Seasonal prediction
Chair: Dr. P. D. Nilo, Philippines Met. Agency
Rapporteur:, Mr. N.D. Quang, Viet Nam NCHMF, Viet Nam
14:15-14:30 / 2-01 Climate prediction and applications
in New Zealand – an update / Dr. J. Renwick,NIWA, New Zealand
14.:30-14:45 / 2-02 Applications of dynamical seasonal forecasts in Australia / Dr. O. Alves, BOM, Australia
14:45-15:00 / 2-03 JMA’s Seasonal Forecast
and its Applications / Mr. K. Takahashi, CPD/JMA, Japan
15:00-15:30 / COFFEE BREAK
15:30-15:45 / 2-04 Seasonal Climate Forecasting for Natural Disaster Risk Management / Dr. S. Mason, IRI, USA
15:45-16:00 / 2-05 Statistical Downscaling Based
on Dynamical Models: Application
to Seasonal Precipitation in China / Ms. L. Chen, BCC/ CMA, China
16:00-16:15 / 2-06 Seasonal Climate Prediction in Singapore and SE Asia / Mr. John Low, MSD/NEA, Singapore
16:15-18:00 / Session III / Frontline technologies in seasonal climate prediction
C Chair : Prof. B. Wang, UH. IPRC. USA
Rapporteur: Dr. L. Chen, China
16:15-16:30 / 3-01 SPAM: a system for prediction and assimilation by a climate model,
MIROC, for seasonal to decadal prediction / Prof. M. Kimoto, CCSR, University of Tokyo, Japan
16:30-16:45 / 3-02 Advance and Prospectus of Seasonal Prediction: Assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-Model Ensemble Retrospective Seasonal Prediction (1980–2004) / Prof. Bin Wang, IPRC/UH, USA
16:45-17:00 / Break
17:00-17:15 / 3-03 Initialization issues of coupled ocean –atmosphere prediction system / Prof. In-Sik Kang, SNU, Korea
17:15:17:30 / 33-04 Comparing Forecast Skills on Seasonal Climate Conditions From Normal to Relatively Extreme / Dr. Cheng-Ta Chen, NTNU, Chinese Taipei
17:30-17:45 / 3-05 Seasonal Predictability and
Prediction Studies in GMU/COLA / Dr. Emilia K. Jin,GMU/COLA , USA
17:45-18:00 / 3-06 The Goddard Earth Observing System 5
(GEOS-5) model and its application to
the climate research / Dr. M.-I. Lee,NASA GSFC, USA
20:30 / Dinner / Venue: The Centro Aeronáutico del Perú (Peruvian Air Force Officer´s Club)
(Organized by SENAMI)
APEC Climate Symposium 2008
Wednesday, August 20, 2008 Museo de la Nacion (National Museum) Lima, Peru
The Working Group Meeting (open to all participants)
9:00-9:10 / Opening Remarks / Dr. W.-J. Lee, APCC
9:10-9:20 / Approval of agenda / Chair: Maj. Gen. P.A.F. (Ret.) Wilar Gamarra Molina, SENAMHI,
PERU
9:20-10:45 / Session I / WG Session on Advances in long range climate prediction
Chair: Mr. K. Takahashi, CPD/JMA, Japan
Rapporteur: J-Y. Lee, IPRC/UH, USA
9:20-9:30 / 4-01 The New Ensemble Prediction system at CMC / Dr. J.S. Fontecilla, CMC, Canada
9:30-9:40 / 4-02 Update on the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) Development Activities / Dr. J-K. E. Schemm, NCEP, USA
9:40-9:50 / 4-03 Recent Developments of JMA Seasonal Prediction System / Mr. K. Takahashi, CPD/JMA, Japan
9:50-10:00 / 4-04 Presenting forecast verification information to user communities / Dr. Simon Mason, IRI, USA
10:00-10:15 / 4-05 APCC Climate Prediction and information activities: New developments / Dr. K. Ashok, APCC
10:15-10:55 / Discussion: Operation of Climate Information Service based on multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction system / Reference: Sections 3.3, 3.4 and 3.5 of WG 3(1)
10:55-11:10 / Break
11:10-12:40 / Session II / WG session on Regional Prediction activities and Capacity
Building
Chair: Dr. J.-K. E. Schemm, CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, USA
Rapporteur : Dr. Emilia K. Jin, GMU/COLA
11:10-11:20 / 5-01 Medium-range Weather Forecast in Vietnam and its Perspectives / Mr. N.D. Quang, Viet Nam NCHMF, Viet Nam
11:20-11:30 / 5-02 Application of ECPC G-RSM for Monthly to Seasonal Prediction in Thailand / Mr. Boonlert Archevarahuprok , TMD, Thailand
11:30-11:40 / 5-03 Title to be announced / Dr. Adelina Albanil, CAN, Mexico
11:40-11:50 / 5-04 Improving the capacity building for numerical modelling in the Chilean National Weather Service / Dr. Myrna Araneda Funtes, National Weather Service of Chile, Chile
11:50-12:05 / 5-05 Climate information tool kit (CLIK): facilitating effective exchange and utilization of climate information / Dr. N. H. Saji, APCC
12:05-12:40 / Discussion: Capacity Building in Producing and Using reliable climate
predictions / Reference: WG Documentation: 4.1, 4.2, and 4.3
12:40-14:15 / Lunch
The APEC Climate Symposium 2008
Wednesday, August 20, 2008 Museo de la Nacion (National Museum) Lima, Peru
The Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting (open to all participants)
14:15-15:45 / Session III / SAC session on International Cooperation
Chair: Prof. M. Kimoto, CCSR/Tokyo University, Japan
Rapporteur : Mr. Boonlert Archevarahuprok, Thailand
14:15-14:25 / 6-01 A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for Improving South American Seasonal Forecasts (EUROBRISA) / Dr. Tercio Ambrizzi, Brazil
14:25-14:35 / 6-02 Multi-model climate prediction: Challenges and Prospectus / Prof. Bin Wang, IPRC/UH, USA
14:35-14:45 / 6-03 AMY: A role for APCC’s in monsoon prediction and modeling / Prof. Bin Wang, UH/IPRC, USA
14:45-14:55 / 6-04 To be announced / Dr. Affonso Mascarenhas, CIIFEN
14:55-15:05 / 6-05 International outreach activities at APCC / Dr. K. Ashok
15:05-15:45 / Discussion: International cooperation. / Reference: WG documentation 4.2
15:45-16:15 / Coffee break
The APEC Climate Symposium 2008
Wednesday, August 20, 2008 Museo de la Nacion (National Museum) Lima, Peru
The Working Group Meeting
16:15-18:15 / Session IV-a / WG session on Future actives to improve climate information service for APEC economies
Chair: Dr. J. Renwick,NIWA, New Zealand
Rapportuer: Dr. J.S. Fontecilla (CMC, Canada), Dr. M-I. Lee, (NASA, USA)
16:15-16:25 / 7-01 Implications of Climate Change scenarios for Peru / Eng. Luis Metzger , SENAMHI
Discussion: (i) Future actives to improve climate information service for APEC economies
(ii) Selection of chair, Defining TORs, venue for next year, etc.
(iii) Recommendations / Reference: WG Documentation 5.1,5.2,5.3, 5.4, 5.4_add1
APEC Climate Symposium 2008
Wednesday, August 20, 2008 Museo de la Nacion (National Museum) Lima, Peru
The Science Advisory Committee Meeting
16:15-18:15 / Session IV-b / SAC session on Future actives to improve climate
information
service for APEC economies
Chair: Prof. In-Sik Kang, SNU, Korea
Rapportuer: Dr. Oscar Alves, (BOM, Australia), and Dr. Swadhin
K. Behera ( FRCGC, Japan)
16:15-16:30 / 8-01 APEC Climate Center for Information Services – progress and prospects / Dr. W.-J. Lee, APCC
Discussion: Refining SAC’s TORs, venue for next year, etc.
SAC review and recommendations / Reference: SAC Documentation 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4

Revised schedule for 21 Aug., 2008

APEC Climate Symposium 2008
Thursday, August 21, 2008 Museo de la Nacion (National Museum) Lima, Peru
The third Day: 08:30~19:00
8:45-9:15 / Session I / Future directions in climate prediction and variability research
Chair: Prof. C-T. Chen, NTNU, Chinese Taipei,
Rapporteur: Mr. N.D. Quang (Viet Nam NCHMF, Viet Nam)
8:45-9:00 / 9-01 Role of Oceans in the Climate Variability and Predictability of the Indo-Pacific Region / Dr. S. K. Behera,FRCGC. Japan
9:00-9:15 / 9-02 The forthcoming World
climate conference-3: relevance
to APCC / Dr. Vladimir Kattsov, MGO, Russia
Deferred to 11.30-11.45 / 9-03
9:15-11:45 / Session II / Plenary session and review
Chair : Prof. C. P. Chang (NPS, USA)
Rapporteur: Mr. N.D. Quang, (Viet Nam NCHMF, Viet Nam)
9:15-9:35 / SP-02 APEC and Industrial Science and Technology / Mr. Yung-Suh Park, APEC Secretariat
09:35 - 10:25 / Review of WG recommendations / Chair: Dr. W. G. Molina
Dr. J. Renwick (NIWA, New Zealand), and Emilia K. Jin, (GMU/COLA,
USA)
10.25-10.40 / To be announced / Dr. Pablo Lagos, IGP
10.40-11.00 / Discussion
10.30-11.00: Closed SAC meeting in Room 3
Chair: Prof. I-S. Kang, SNU
Dr. O. Alves, BOM, and Dr. S. Behera, FRCGC
11.00-11.15 / Break
11.15-11.30 / SAC meeting: Review of SAC recommendations / Chair: Prof. I-S. Kang, SNU
Dr. O. Alves, BOM, and Dr. Behera, FRCGC
11.30-11.45 / 9-03 The Necessity and the Possibility of Revolutionizing Seamless Prediction of Weather and Climate / Dr. Emilia K. Jin, GMU/COLA, USA
11:45-13:00 / Session III / Panel Discussion
Future actives to improve
climate information service for
APEC economies. / Panelists: Mr. Y-S. Park, Mr. P. Chen, Drs. J. Carrasco, J. Low, K. Takahashi, In-Sik Kang, A. Moura, C.-P. Chen, O. Alvez, M. Kimoto, S. Behera, W-J. Lee, Maj. Molina, Bin Wang, J. Renwick, and Mr. Y. S. Swarinoto,
Moderators: Drs. Ashok, Kattsov, and Saji
13:00-13:45 / Moving to SENAMHI
13:45-17:00 / Session IV / The vision for regional cooperation in the next decade
Venue: SENAMHI
13:45 - 14:00 / Welcome Address / Maj. Gen. (ret) Wilar Gamarra, Executive President, SENAMHI
14:00 - 15:00 / Lunch and exhibition
15:00-16:00 / Open house. Visit to the facilities
16:00-16:30 / Closing Remarks and vote of thanks / Dr. W-J. Lee, APCC
16:30-18:00 / Closed Group Meeting / The vision for regional cooperation in the next decade
WMO, APEC and APCC and other interested participants
20:00 / Farewell dinner / Venue: La Dama Juana restaurant (Organized by SENAMI)

Organization chart