REPUBLIC OF KENYA

MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT

KENYA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

Dagoretti Corner, Ngong Rd, P. O. Box 30259, 00100 GPO, Nairobi, Kenya

Telephone: 254 (0) 20 3867880-7 / 3876957/60 / 3873682

Mobile: 254(0)724255153/ 254(0)724255154

Fax: 254 (0) 20 3876955/3877373/3867888/3874501

e-mail: ; Website: http://www.meteo.go.ke

REVIEW OF THE PERFORMANCE OF THE LONG RAINS SEASON TO DATE, FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7-DAY PERIOD, POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND GENERAL ADVISORY

1. REVIEW OF THE RAINFALL PERFORMANCE

1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE DURING MARCH 2011

The month of March normally marks the onset of the “Long Rains” (March-April-May) season over most parts of the country. In March 2011, generally depressed rainfall (normal with a tendency to below normal) was experienced over most parts of the country. The driest conditions occurred over the Northeastern Kenya and the Coastal strip where most stations recorded no rainfall at all throughout the month (Figure 1). On the other hand, several areas in Western and Northwestern Kenya as well as Nairobi area including parts of Southeastern lowlands recorded enhanced rainfall (normal rains but tending to above normal). The rainfall distribution, both in time and space, was, nevertheless, generally poor since it was characterized by short-lived heavy rainfall events that significantly contributed to the monthly rainfall totals (See Figure 2a and b). Prolonged dry periods prevailed over many of these areas

The Meteorological Stations in these areas where the March 2011 rainfall totals in excess of 100% of the March Long Term Means (LTMs) were Kericho, Kakamega, Machakos, Kitale, Wilson Airport, Thika, Kisii, Dagoretti Corner, Narok, Kisumu, Makindu and Nakuru.

Elsewhere in the country, the situation was as depicted in Figure 1c for Marsabit - a manifestation of sustained dry conditions.

1.2 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE DURING THIS FIRST HALF OF APRIL 2011

The month of April is normally the peak rainfall month for the “Long Rains” (March-April-May) season over most parts of the country. The rainfall conditions so far observed and recorded from the beginning of April to date shows very low-key rainfall activities over most parts of the country. This is a continuation of the dry conditions that started in the last week of March and depicts a prolonged dry spell over most parts of the country into this usually peak rainfall month of April. Only a few areas in Taita Taveta have so far recorded significant rainfall this month particularly at the beginning of the month.

The prolonged dry spell is a result of very weak pressure systems in the Southern Hemisphere. These pressure systems, when strong, normally pump moist air from the Indian Ocean and also through the Congo Basin into the country.

2. WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN-DAY PERIOD (15 TO 21 APRIL 2011

The current weak patterns of the rainfall generating systems are expected be maintained for the next seven-day period (15 to 21 April 2011). Consequently, most parts of the country are expected to realise very low-key rainfall (sustenance of the dry conditions) activities. Only patchy and light rainfall is expected over the coastal strip, parts of the southeastern lowlands, parts of the northeastern areas, the central highlands and the western areas at the beginning of the forecast period. This is a worrying trend and is likely to exacerbate some of the adverse impacts that have been associated with poor rainfall performance since late last year in some areas.

3. POTENTIAL IMPACTS

Some of the impacts that are associated with the poor rainfall performance recorded to date and its extension into the next seven-day period include:

· Relatively poor crop performance (start of wilting in some areas) in various parts of the country due to the prolonged dry spells;

· Poor pasture regeneration and possible continued deterioration for livestock will be notable especially in the pastoral areas of Northwestern;

· Low inflows into the Seven-Folks and Turkwel power generating dams due to the erratic and low rainfall amounts in the catchment areas;

· Diseases associated with water scarcity and poor sanitation such as typhoid and cholera are likely to occur in various parts of the country.

· Conflicts over limited water resources in the ASALs.

[NOTE: Contingency measures that the Government has been undertaking since last year need to be sustained to forestall the possibility of a crisis scenario]

DR. JOSEPH R. MUKABANA, MBS

DIRECTOR OF METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND PERMANENT REPRESENTATIVE OF KENYA WITH WMO

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