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Personal Computing: Past, Present, and Future
Michael Wills
Computer Information Systems
University of Wisconsin - Platteville
Abstract
The world of personal computing has changed immensely just in the few decades we have been on this planet. Just a few years ago, it was not nearly as common if a family had a computer, especially one with the internet. Now a vast number of people walk around with smart phones in our pockets that are as powerful, if not more than, the desktop PCs of old, not to mention connected to millions of other devices via the internet. Personal computing is changing rapidly as are the needs of the user. This seminar will explore the origins of personal computing, provide insight on the current state of the industry, and look to the future.
Introduction
Personal computers play a gigantic role in all of our lives these days. Many people believe the term ‘PC’ only applies to their laptop or desktop computer, but the definition of a personal computer is as follows according to Miriam Webster:
A general-purpose computer equipped with a microprocessor and designed to run especially commercial software (as a word processor or Internet browser) for an individual user.
This definition appears to include vast numbers of devices we use every day. From phones, tablets, laptops, and desktops to GPS devices, DVRs, and Smart TV boxes, personal computers are everywhere in our lives whether we notice them or not.
Early on in the life of the term ‘Personal Computer’ a Time Magazine writer wrote something that, at the time, would have seemed outlandish to consider:
“There is no reason to suppose the average boy or girl cannot be a master of a personal computer.” - John Mauchly 11/3/1962
This attitude would define the generations of innovation that followed and brought a computer into nearly every household in the country and brought personal computing technology into the hands of the masses.
History
Early Computers
In the early years of the computer era, there were gigantic computers known as mainframes. Mainframes were leviathans that often took up the entire room for which they were situated and came with a massive price tag to match. Due to their size and expense to operate, which was anywhere from two to three thousand dollars a month, they were generally owned and operated only by major corporations, universities, and government entities. Jobs were prepared on punch cards by hand and could take quite a long time to prepare because of the massive number of punch cards necessary for complex or longer jobs. Often times, the party who submitted the cards could be left for hours or days waiting for the job results depending on the workload of that particular mainframe.
After mainframes came minicomputers. In the early 60's the minicomputer began to become more prevalent for smaller companies or research facilities due to it being far cheaper, only in the ten to thirty thousand dollar total range, as well as smaller and more convenient. Minicomputers were still large by todays standards, most standing about the size of a refrigerator, but back in those days, these were revolutionarily small.
The Microprocessor
The advent of the personal computer was preceded by the invention of the microprocessor. The microprocessor shrank down the necessary functions onto a lone integrated circuit. This smaller chip size allowed for mass production as well as price drops. The decrease in size and price are the reason the personal computer was allowed to become personal as those two factors had previously inhibited consumer purchasing of computers.
The first microprocessor on a single chip to be produced was the Texas Instruments TMS 1000 in September of 1971. The chip was produced in over 40 different varieties with different ROM and RAM amounts. Because of its absurdly low retail price of only two dollars a chip, it sold well over one hundred million units. However, despite being completed in 1971, the chip did not make it into the market until 1974 by which time it had been passed up by the next and far more renowned of the early microprocessors.
Intel released the 4004 a mere two months after the TMS 1000 was created. This was the first commercially available microprocessor. Upon release, its initial speed was 740kHz which at the time was very quick because of a new technology developed just for this chip, known as silicon gate technology. This allowed for a larger number of transistors on the chip and higher speeds.
Early Personal Computers
In 1957, the first programmable single user PC controlled by a keyboard was released. The IBM 610 was one of the first available computers that someone with little to no experience could come in and work without a manual. It did not need any special power sources to run it, nor did it need any air conditioning units to keep it cool. The only downside to it was that it was fairly slow. One example offered up by a user was that it would take nearly 20 seconds to calculate a sine equation. It was still fairly expensive at around fifty five thousand dollars which was part of the reason it only sold one hundred eighty units.[4]
The next step came in 1965. The Olivetti Programma 101 was the first commercially produced desktop computer for the average consumer. It debuted at the World's Fair that year for only three thousand two hundred dollars, which was much cheaper than any other computer on the market at the time, though still very expensive for the average family or small business. It was capable of much the same as a scientific calculator today could do and had a printer built in to print out the results of calculations. This computer sold markedly better than the IBM 610 had because it had a more targeted market base.[1]
Finally in 1970 the Datapoint 2200 showed a glimpse into what the PC of the future would start to look like. It came with a monitor, keyboard, and program storage built in and was the first of its kind to do so. This was followed shortly after, in 1973, by the Xerox Alto which was the first computer to use the mouse as well as a GUI operating system. Xerox followed this unit up a few years later with the Star in 1981 which brought the first use of bitmapped display, Ethernet networking, file servers, print servers, and email clients to the world of corporate workstations. These were rather expensive and thus less likely to be home machines, but they sold fairly well in the corporate world.
The do it yourself computer builders got a big start in this era as well with the Altair 8800, a four hundred dollar kit computer that anyone could build. Its low entry price and relatively easy to follow instructions helped it sell phenomenally quickly. It sold ten thousand kits before Altair realized it could not keep up with demand and sold the design off. The Altair spawned one of the giants of the industry today, Microsoft, which was founded to make a BASIC interpreter for the computer.[7]
The last major design of this era was the Sol-20. This was the only major production of the Silicon Valley based group Homebrew Computer Club. The major gripe the group had with the computer industry is that in order to get growth, someone would have to make a computer that was all in one with no assembly required. They did this with the Sol-20. It included a monitor and cassette tape interface as well as the computer and keyboard built into one box. It was relatively cheap at just over two thousand dollars and did not sell as well as hoped. The idea, however, would prove to be contagious.
The "Trinity"
In 1977, three computers took the market by storm. These PCs really brought the market for personal computing to the average home with their affordable pricing and all in one builds, the idea for which was the Sol-20 mentioned above. The trinity name was bestowed upon them by Byte magazine for their success.
The first of the bunch, the Commodore PET was the least successful of the three. This PC followed the model of the Sol-20 and had the entire device built into one machine. It had a cassette storage interface, 96kB of memory, and a 1mHz processor. Frequent complaints about the "chiclet" keyboard caused the company to release a new version two years later which had a better keyboard but had to remove the integrated cassette reader to make room for it. The PET was produced for five years and sold just under a million units at four hundred ninety five dollars a unit. [3]
The second, and the bestselling of the group, was one of the first ventures of Apple computers and one of its founders Steve Wozniak. The Apple II line of computers was similar in styling to the PET but without the integrated cassette storage system, instead opting for diskette drives and cassette storage drives to be attached peripherals. Despite its sales numbers, this PC wasnt any more popular than the other two. It sold four million units at five hundred dollars each, but it sold those units over a much longer time span. Production on the Apple II line of PCs did not stop until 1993, a full 8 years after the last of the other two faded out.
The last of the "trinity" was the Tandy TRS-80. At the time of release, Tandy Corp was owned by RadioShack, thus giving the TRS-80 a marketing advantage since there could be one in the window of every one of the biggest electronics retailers in the country. It did well, selling around 1.5 million units at four hundred ninety nine dollars in the four years it was produced. This PC, however, had issues getting FCC clearance as it had several exterior cables and cheap plastics that caused it to fail the FCC interference standard. By the time this became an issue in 1981, Tandy decided that instead of fixing it, they would just discontinue the model since its successors had already come to market and were selling well.[10]
What Came Next
After the "trinity" the industry really began to blossom with more variety and affordability. The same year the Commodore PET was discontinued, their next offering came out. The Commodore 64 was the most successful single model of all time selling seventeen million units, more than twice the sales figures for all three trinity computers combined. It was named for its 64 kB of RAM. It was an all in one unit whose success stemmed from a few factors. One being that it was sold in regular retail facilities rather than electronics stores so more people were apt to see them. It also spawned over ten thousand software titles which made it one of the most developed operating systems at the time. These and its low six hundred dollar price tag made it very appealing for both business and consumer use.
The C64's direct competition was the IBM PC. The IBM PC had a processor that was roughly five times faster than the C64 and had the same RAM. On paper, it should have been a much better machine. In reality though, its high price tag of three thousand dollars and a rare mistake by IBM cost them in the market with this computer. In IBM's rush to get the PC out to compete with the C64 and the Apple II, they skipped out on several patents which led to other companies reverse engineering their work and producing cheaper clones to undercut IBM’s market share. The IBM PC will be known best for providing the standard architecture of the personal PC for the coming years. Because of this, it won Time Magazine's Person of the Year in 1982, becoming the first inanimate object to do so.
The IBM PC also spawned a new generation of operating systems. IBM hired Microsoft to provide its MSDOS operating system which they re-branded PCDOS. Microsoft sold several variations and upgrades to the operating system under their moniker of MSDOS. This was a major kick start for Microsoft which has since evolved into the giant we know today.
In 1984 Apple released their response to the success of the IBM PC and the C64 with their new Macintosh. It was $500 cheaper than the IBM and contained hardware that was twice as powerful. It was also one of the most successful mouse driven PC models to date. It was announced during the Super Bowl that year, but really became successful for its association with Adobe's Desktop Publishing suite. One of Apple's goals for this PC was to bring high end graphics to the middle class; this is a mindset that Apple products are still well known for today.[5]
Part of the personalization of the computer came in the form of the operating system that the user would use. In the nineties, Microsoft developed several operating systems: Microsoft Windows 3.0, 3.1, 95, 98 and 2000. Each one making things easier and easier for the user to do more and more and making the PC much more accessible for anyone.
During this time Apple was floundering near bankruptcy due to a lack of innovation within their MacOS. They were able to avoid it when Steve Jobs, the other founder, returned to the company in 1997. With him came the new MacOS 8, which was a major revision on previous versions of the operating system. Shortly after, the release of the iconic iMac all in one PC brought the company back into profitability and direct competition with Windows PCs for the market. They released a workstation model of PC as well, known as PowerMac, which looked more like the conventional desktop PC we know today.[6]
Current PCs
The current state of the personal computer world would astonish the users of the early PCs. We have come a long way from those 1 MHz processors and 64kB of RAM. It is not uncommon today for a computer to have four or more multi GHz processors and multiple gigabytes of RAM. The days of computing in our lives being a luxury are mostly over as personal computers are everywhere doing things we never dreamed of ten years ago.
Hardware has advanced a steady pace ever since the invention of the microprocessor in 1971. This march of progress can only be stopped when we are capable of making transistors which are on the atomic level for size. This is a commonly spoken of rule known as Moore’s Law which also states the number of transistors will double roughly every 18-24 months. The graph below proves that it has been a fairly accurate prediction thus far.