November 2: Taking the Reins: Presidential Transitions

Lecture Notes

November 2: Taking the Reins: Presidential Transitions

I Defining Transitions

A.  Period between Election and Inauguration- 20th amendment- move inaugural from March 4 to January 20; instead of 4 months they have 11 weeks before inauguration

B.  The initial Months of a new administration

II The Setting

A.  Expectations- expectations are enormously high; huge transition team- most are looking for jobs

B.  Scrutiny- immense scrutiny from the press

C.  Pressures- under pressure to announce your cabinet (Clinton was systematic approach to closing…talk about position first)

III Central Tasks

A.  Recruiting Personnel- think of it as a team rather than a collection of superstar individuals

B.  Policy: Continuity and Initiatives-

-has to make a lot of policy decisions- which policies to continue

-institutional memory? (GWB decided to retain CIA director, NSC people

-decide #1 priorities, #2 etc and pursue #1 right away

C.  Organization- how are we going to reorganize

-reorganization is best at the beginning

-no way to reorganize w/o people feeling like they’re worse off or better off, so there’s always a cost

IV Hazards- Neustadt’s “hazards of transition” is useful chapter that reminds us that with every new adventure there are hazards. There are 3 potential types of hazards with transitions. Porter adds a 4th

A.  Ignorance [of nuances]

-there are things you don’t know when you come in and your have to make decisions (ie bay of pigs)

-NOT UNDERSTANDING THE NUANCES OF POLICY (Carter ex with president now knowing about communication from foreign government 1776 in Moscow)

B.  Hubris: identifies this with the staff more than with president

-1st hubris: you don’t draw on people who are leaving (tend to ignore)

-2nd hubris: how you treat people who stay (career civil servants)

C.  Haste: you’re often pressed to do things quickly (ie Reagan tax plans)

D.  Overreaching (Porter)- you want to do a lot of things right at the outset

V Transitions as Opportunities

November 7 – “The President and the National Agenda”

The President is unlikely to ever feel fully in control. The President must manage the six streams below. In doing so, he must act as an economizer.

I.  Six Key Streams of Regular Activities

1. Budgets (must hear appeals)
2. Bills (legislative proposals – the State of the Union has 40-60 embedded)
3. News (responding to)
4. Cables (international affairs briefing every 8 hours)
5. Jobs (about 8000 political appointments per term)
6. Callers (meeting with Congress, groups, etc.)

II.  Three Generic Types of Issues – President must use his legislative, administrative, and rhetorical presidential powers to structure his agenda around these three reservoirs of issues.

1. Electoral mandate issues – easier to assert when national mood is consistent with electoral mandate
2. Maturing issues – constantly inclined to tinker (e.g. tax reform, clean air, education)
3. Crisis issues – when President can persuade others that failing to act now will result in a significant deterioration of the underlying situation (e.g. homeland security)

III.  Shaping the National Agenda: Omnibus Approaches – omnibus budget reconciliation bill

November 9: The President and Congress: Who Leads?

Overview

·  Original concepts of the President’s legislative role

o  Framers didn’t think the President would do much in terms of legislation

o  He had few staff

o  Only give one State of the Union address, a legislative program not included

·  TR and FDR

o  We began viewing the President as someone who would give Congress a legislative program

·  All Congressmen basically thought of as equal, so difficult to produce comprehensive program or unified budget

o  President introduces these, and Congress acts on it

·  Incentives

o  President’s incentives

§  Presidents thought to represent the common, general, national interests

§  Do not represent special interests (or special geographic areas)

o  Congressional incentives

§  Particular interests based on geographical location

§  Their main offices are in their own districts

§  They believe they represent “particular interests”

·  After going through the election process, Congressmen feel like they deserve two things:

o  Power, a voice, taken seriously

o  Respect from both parties and the President and his staff

Trends in Congress

·  Power in Congress has been decentralized

o  Less power in party leaders

o  People working for you are working for you, and not the political party

o  Power is less hierarchical

o  Watergate Class started the move toward decentralized power

·  52 new democratic members of Congress elected and they decided to get rid of seniority

·  Committee leaders chosen by secret ballot

·  All chairmen had been Southern Democrats when JFK took office

·  More subcommittee power – less control by Chairman

o  1994 – Republicans introduced term limits for Committee chairmen (6 years)

·  Chairmen who are term-limited run for something else

·  Specialization and Independence

o  Everyone wants to do a good job, and you need information to do this

o  Congress used to be very dependent on executive branch for information

o  Early 1960’s – Congressional Budget Office will produce estimates and information

o  Congressional staff increased (legitimized because of the rise in US population)

o  Today, Congress has much greater institutional independency

·  More democratization

o  1974 – Many fewer closed committee hearings

o  Began televising house and senate sessions

·  Workload has increased

o  Because federal G spending almost 20% of a larger GDP

·  Working with Congress is now much more complicated than it was 30+ years ago

o  Speaker/majority leader will have less control over other democrats

o  More Congressional time spent on specialized issues

o  Negotiations much more difficult

Three Successes (FDR, LBJ, Reagan)

·  Came into office in a time of crises (Depression, Assassination of Kennedy, stagflation and Iranian hostages)

o  People set aside their differences

·  Achieving a governing majority in Congress

o  LBJ had many southern democrats

o  Reagan put together a group of conservative democrats

·  Persuasive personality

o  Paid attention to members of Congress

o  Reagan – after hospital he lifted a lot, thought about challenging Mondale for an arm wrestling match

o  Reagan would call Congressmen on his birthday – got a list at the beginning of the day

§  His first call after his assassination attempt was to say happy birthday to Congressman on a talk radio station

Who Leads?

·  President puts together a legislative plan

·  Congress:

o  Defines parameters and makes sure that everyone gets their fair share

·  Examples:

o  Reagan’s Tax Reform Bill of 1986

§  Democrats in control

§  Majority leader realized that Reagan’s proposal would not pass, had a meeting with Reagan, told him that he could get a bill out of ways and means committee and passed by House, but Reagan might not love it

§  Told Reagan to get a bill out of the Senate

§  Reagan did not let anyone criticize Majority Leader

§  What eventually came out of Congress looked nothing like Ways and Means bill or President’s initial bill, but it was something everyone could agree with

o  Clean Air in 1990

§  Bush advanced proposal, but told it would not get through the House

§  Bush asked that if he could get a bill through the Senate, then Energy committee chairman would get a bill out of the House – they made a deal

§  Negotiate a bill that would be different than Administration’s bill and different than what came out of Senate

§  Hours of negotiation in Senate with Democratic leaders, Republican leaders, and administration (99 Senators sat in at one point)

§  If produce agreement, Senators have to vote in favor of agreement and not amend it on the floor

§  George Mitchell and Minority leader Bob Dole kept their words

§  Legislation took a full month, eventually passed 89-11

§  Had been gridlocked for 13 years

§  Put a lot of pressure on the House, and the House passed it

o  Budget Summits of 1982, 87, 92, 97

§  Deficit reduction agreements

§  1982 – involved leaders in House, Senate, and administration

§  Negotiated total size of deficit reduction act and what would be the particular components

§  1992 – Negotiated a deal with 25 people (10 rep leaders from senate and house, 10 dem…, and 5 from administration)

·  One republican (Gingrich) came back and changed his view, couldn’t get majority of Republicans in house, dems pulled out b/c they didn’t want to be thought of as tax raisers

·  Signal that individual members wouldn’t just sign off on something that the leaders agreed to

o  NAFTA (1993) – negotiated with labor, environment, etc.

§  Bipartisan

o  No Child Left Behind

§  Bush used a democrat from Texas to help pull democrats to the bill

Three Perspectives

·  Some believe that President leads the legislation system

o  Initiator, and Congress will just respond

o  Presidents get most of what they want

·  Congressionally-driven

o  They actually write legislation, and President signs most of it

·  Examples

o  Minimum wage increase when Bush entered (Kennedy proposed it)

o  Debate on whether to propose right where they would agree or a little lower so there was negotiation room; would have to veto if raised above the higher proposal

o  Proposed higher, it was raised and passed, so Bush vetoed it

Lecture Notes from November 14

The President and the Congress: Mutual Oversight

I. The President and the Congress

·  particularized, local interests for Congress

·  President’s role is focuser, initiator, and agenda setting

·  Congress modifies, wants to make sure particular constituency interests are observed

·  Presidency a personalized office

·  Meetings

o  Carter mechanically brilliant but lacked a personal touch

o  Nixon tried to get around congressional leadership to rank-and-file

o  2 types of meetings

§  bipartisan leadership meetings—leaders on both sides of aisle, appointees sit on side and don’t speak until spoken to

§  partisan leadership meetings

II. The White House Office of Legislative Affairs

·  Roosevelt used an undersecretary of the interior

·  Eisenhower first to use legislative affairs

·  Between 20-25 people, professional and support staff, split evenly between House and Senate personnel

·  People who know Congress well, keep egos under control

·  Keys to Success

o  Limit number of issues they get involved in

o  Tell congressmen you don’t like bill early and might veto before congressmen promise to district will vote for it

o  Good working relationship with Congress

III. Presidential-Congressional Relations: Foreign Policy

·  Constitutional provisions—formal powers clear; 7 of 18 congressional powers deal with FP

·  The expansion of presidential powers-Washington

o  Jefferson sent troops to check piracy

o  Madison called to Congress to declare war

·  The War Powers Act—established in 1973 when presidential credibility at a low; Congress has failed to lay down a marker, Pres thinks unconstitutional for him being commander-in-chief, never tested

·  Increased congressional activism—tariff levels a fight—Smoot-Harley tariff raised tariff to 50-60% and stopped world trade; Pres allowed to negotiate tariff reduction

IV. Presidential-Congressional Relations: Domestic Policy

·  The Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974—imposed by Congress on weak president

·  State of the Union—the President’s legislative program

·  Budget Resolutions (Spring)

·  Appropriations Bill (Fall)

·  Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Acts—congressmen load up bill with pork, knowing hard for Presidents to veto entire bill

V. Mutual Oversight—issue of time management at forefront; time-consuming, often partisan

·  Formal Oversight

o  Fire alarms vs. police patrols—more often fire alarm (reacting to crisis) rather than police patrols (preventive)

o  Investigations—Harry Truman’s Senate hearings about military likely saved country $15 billion in 1940’s

o  When Democratic Congress and Republican Pres in 1983 a lot of oversight, but when Rep Congress and Dem Pres in 1997 less oversight

o  Democratic Party-led committees more oversight conscious

o  Another explanation: Congressmen spend less time in Wash D.C.

·  Informal Oversight (consultation understandings)

·  The appointments process

o  Congress must approve of Pres’ appointees

o  Every Pres since JFK has had more difficulty (takes longer) getting his appointees confirmed than the Pres before him

o  Why is confirmation process longer? Gov’t has grown, more appointees; Senate exercising more oversight

·  The President’s Veto

o  Frequency of Use and Success Rates (less than 5% of vetoes overridden)

o  Rationales and Strategies—Reasons given to Congress for veto

§  Unwise on policy grounds

§  Lack of fiscal soundness

§  Unconstitutional

§  Administratively unworkable

§  Protect executive against legislative encroachment

VI. Generic Lessons

·  If Pres can pick time and place, pick his spots effectively, he has the most troops and will often win

·  Less if more—cannot fight on every front—Economizing President

·  The Rewards of Persistence—system has high potential for stalemate

November 16, 2006

The Courts and the Presidency

I.  John Roberts – Supreme Court not driven by political views

1. Repeating arguments of Hamilton – Federalist 78
2. Q: how do you square this with
3. 2000 hand re-count intervened by Supreme Court, ensured that Bush wins ( v. partisan political matter)
4. (If recount finished Bush still would have won)
5. Argument: Courts have always been political actors – their influence has grown significantly with the expansion of the modern presidency and they are increasingly willing to interject into overtly political issues

II.  Watergate v. political reflects courts more deferential to President

1. Nixon elected 1969 – campaign promise to end Vietnam War – trapped between extrication and maintaining existence of S. Vietnamese regime
2. Pressure increases with Pentagon Paper lead (US involvement in Vietnam shown to have gone as far back as Truman)
3. Complained to aides about leaks – to Halderman, who hires “plumbers” whose sole jobs is to stop leaks
4. Operation expands – Gordon Libby and Howard Hunt start using dubious tactics, like burglarizing office of man who leaked
5. Nixon runs 1972 for re-election
6. Plumbers new job is to support Nixon with “dirty tricks”
7. They plant a bug in Dem HQ in Watergate to check on McGovern (Nixon didn’t know specifics but knew about plumbers) bug wasn’t working so they break back into the office to fix the bug
8. Watergate – plumbers caught – Nixon finds out! – John Dean and Mitchell (Attorney General) big figures in WH had known about this
9. Hush money given to pumbers, who want to plead guilty but judge refuses plea to get to the truth
10. Woodward, helped by undercover person “Deep Throat” investigates, Congress starts own investigation
11. Mitchell resigns, many other people resign, Dean goes to the Committee and spills everything
12. Reveals Nixon had taping system – was voice activated – everything got taped
13. Archie Cox subpoenaed Nixon for tapes – President exercises executive privilege – people who work for P. need to have confidentiality
14. Nixon gets independent third party to listen to tapes
15. Court case goes to Supreme court 8-0 Nixon relinquishes tapes “Smoking gun tape” Nixon heard orchestrating cover-up – impeachable for obstruction of justice
16. Nixon resigns

III.  Even in ruling against Nixon – Supreme court based decision on overriding right for criminal defender to have a fair trail (all evidence) which is a legal principle