Michigan Department of Education
Technology-Enhanced Lesson Plan
Lesson Title: Analyzing Michigan Census Data
Created by: Susan Bennett, Heather Salmi, David Myton
Lesson Abstract: Students analyze Michigan census data to evaluate statistical functions, create graphs of population trend lines and fit simple functions to the population growth trend lines.
Subject Area: Mathematics
Grade Level: 9-12
Unit Title: Analysis of Data
Michigan Educational Technology Standards Connection:
Basic Operations and Concepts(5) Students understand and use assistive technology
(8) Students understand the relationship between electronic resources, infrastructure
(12) Students demonstrate how to import/export text, graphics, or audio files
Social Ethical and Human Issues
(9) Students create appropriate citations for resources
Technology Productivity Tools
(6) Students use an online tutorial.
(9) Students have the opportunity to participate in real-life experiences associated with technology related careers
Technology Communication Skills
(4) Students collaborate in content-related projects that integrate a variety of media
Technology Tools to Process Data and Report Results
(1) Students use a variety of technology resources for problem solving and independent learning
(3) Students formulate a research question or hypothesis, then collect relevant information, analyze findings and report the results
Michigan Grade Level Content Expectations Connection:
S1.1 Producing and Interpreting PlotsS1.2 Measures of Center and Variation
S2.2 Linear Regression
A3.1 Models of Real-world situations using families of functions
Michigan Curriculum Framework Connection:
Estimated time required to complete lesson or unit: 3 class sessions
Instructional resources:
Michigan Profile & Quickfacts http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/26000.html http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/26000lk.html
Michigan Historical Census Data
http://www.census.gov/population/cencounts/mi190090.txt
Excel Graphing Tutorials
http://www.ncsu.edu/labwrite/res/gt/gt-menu.html
http://www.ocf.berkeley.edu/~ufourcc/Excel%20Graphing%20Tutorial.htm
http://ed.fnal.gov/data/life_sci/data/tutorials/excel.shtml
Prior required technology skills:
Students should be familiar with spreadsheets, using assistive tools on computer, Internet use, downloading-copy-paste functions
Sequence of Activities:
Introduce students to the importance of a National Census
The official U.S. Census is described in Article I, Section 2 of the Constitution of the United States. It calls for an actual enumeration of the people every ten years, to be used for apportionment of seats in the House of Representatives among the states. The first official Census was conducted in 1790 under Thomas Jefferson, who was the Secretary of State. That census, taken by U.S. marshals on horseback, counted 3.9 million inhabitants. Since that time, the decennial Census has been conducted every ten years, generally on April 1 in years ending in a zero.
Besides providing the basis for congressional redistricting, Census data are used in many other ways. Since 1975, the Census Bureau has had responsibility to produce small-area population data needed to redraw state legislative and congressional districts. Other important uses of Census data include the distribution of funds for government programs such as Medicaid; planning the right locations for schools, roads, and other public facilities; helping real estate agents and potential residents learn about a neighborhood; and identifying trends over time that can help predict future needs. Most Census data are available for many levels of geography, including states, counties, cities and towns, ZIP codes, census tracts and blocks, and much more.
http://factfinder.census.gov/jsp/saff/SAFFInfo.jsp?_pageId=sp4_decennial&_submenuId=
Demonstrate to the students the US Census website and browse the data available. www.census.gov
Enter your hometown in the Population Finder, and follow the links to get information for the county, view the population map of persons by square mile
http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/SAFFPopulation?_event=&geo_id=04000US26&_geoContext=01000US%7C04000US26%7C05000US26103&_street=&_county=marquette%2C+mi&_cityTown=marquette%2C+mi&_state=&_zip=&_lang=en&_sse=on&ActiveGeoDiv=&_useEV=&pctxt=fph&pgsl=050&_submenuId=population_0&ds_name=null&_ci_nbr=null&qr_name=null®=null%3Anull&_keyword=&_industry=
These maps are available for each state and for the nation comparing states.
Realizing the difficulty of navigating the U.S. Census to arrive at the same page each time – consider a GOOGLE search of Michigan Census – the first link returned is to the Michigan Summary Data:
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/26000.html
Have students begin working independently to collect information from this site using the Census Worksheet which is attached. Sample questions are provided; modify to suit your local school/region/student population.
Have students complete the online tutorial for making graphs in a spreadsheet (see instructional resources for links to examples based on Excel).
From the Michigan quickfacts page noted above, select the link “Browse Data Sets For Michigan” and scroll down to find the Historical Population Counts. Have students copy the population data from
Student Assignments:
1) Students research information from the Michigan Census database http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/26000.html. Collect student worksheet.
2) Students complete the online tutorial for making graphs in a spreadsheet, collect graphs made through the tutorial activity
3) Students graph population data from the Michigan Census 1900-1990 and conduct statistical and regression analysis based on the data.
Assessments:
· Pre-Assessment: Hold a discussion with class about the importance of a National Census. Query the class on their knowledge of the population or income data for their city, county or state.
o Scoring Criteria: Class discussion
· Post-Assessment: Collect student graphs and worksheets from each assignment.
o Graphing Scoring Criteria:
Student Name: ______CATEGORY / 4 / 3 / 2 / 1
Title / Title is creative and clearly relates to the problem being graphed (includes dependent and independent variable). It is printed at the top of the graph. / Title clearly relates to the problem being graphed (includes dependent and independent variable) and is printed at the top of the graph. / A title is present at the top of the graph. / A title is not present.
Labeling of X axis / The X axis has a clear, neat label that describes the units used for the independent variable (e.g, days, months, participants' names). / The X axis has a clear label that describes the units used for the independent variable. / The X axis has a label. / The X axis is not labeled.
Labeling of Y axis / The Y axis has a clear, neat label that describes the units and the dependent variable (e.g, % of dogfood eaten; degree of satisfaction). / The Y axis has a clear label that describes the units and the dependent variable (e.g, % of dogfood eaten; degree of satisfaction). / The Y axis has a label. / The Y axis is not labeled.
Regression Line / Regression lines present and accurate / Regression lines present with minor errors / Regression lines with multiple errors / Regression lines not present or with errors
Analysis / Analysis is consistent with data and makes reasonable predictions / Analysis is mostly consistent with data and predictions are mostly reasonable / Analysis is not consistent with data, predications contain errors / No correlation between data and analysis or predictions
Technology (hardware/software): internet browser, spreadsheet
Key Vocabulary: graphing, spreadsheet, online tutorial, census data, regression, statistics
Application Beyond School: Career opportunities in math and statistical analysis
Teacher Reflection and Notes:
Michigan Census Research Student Name:______
(Samples of student research questions with answers – Modify based on time allocated for the lesson, student needs, and available resources)
What were the populations of Michigan and the U.S. in the 2005 Census?
Population, 2005 estimate / 10,120,860 / 296,410,404What percentage of the U.S. population lives in Michigan?
What percentage of the U.S. housing units are found in Michigan?
Using the home ownership rates from 2000, and the housing units from 2004, estimate the number of housing units in Michigan that are owned by the person living in the home
Housing units, 2004 / 4,433,482 / 122,671,734Homeownership rate, 2000 / 73.8% / 66.2%
Housing units in multi-unit structures, percent, 2000 / 18.8% / 26.4%
Median value of owner-occupied housing units, 2000 / $115,600 / $119,600
Who does the Census consider to be an American Indian or Alaska Native? A person having origins in any of the original peoples of North and South America (including Central America) and who maintain tribal affiliation or community attachment.
Where does the Census consider the primary residence of Snowbirds to be? (people who live in one state but spend the winter in another state with a warmer climate - check the residence rules)- Counted at the residence where they live most of the year.
Where does the Census consider the primary residence of homeless people to be (People without a usual residence) - Counted where they are staying on Census Day.
Review the 2003 Income and Poverty Data. How many people (all ages) in your county are in poverty? How many people ages 0-17 are in poverty in your county?
Individual data for counties is available at the Census page – follow the link for 2004-Income and Poverty Data http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/saipe/saipe.cgi?year=2003&type=county&table=county&submit=States%20%26%20Counties&areas=all&display_data=Display%20Data&state=26
What is a confidence interval? (see link on Income and Poverty page)
A confidence interval is a range of values that describes the uncertainty surrounding an estimate. We indicate a confidence interval by its endpoints; for example, the 90% confidence interval for the number of people, of all ages, in poverty in the United States in 1995 (based on the March 1996 Current Population Survey) is "35,534,124 to 37,315,094." A confidence interval is also itself an estimate. It is made using a model of how sampling, interviewing, measuring, and modeling contribute to uncertainty about the relation between the true value of the quantity we are estimating and our estimate of that value.
Review the Historical Population Counts for 1900-1990. Answer each question below for Michigan as a whole, and for the county in which you live. http://www.census.gov/population/cencounts/mi190090.txt
a) How has the population increased from 1900 to 1990? Calculate
i. the difference in population
ii. the percentage increase in population (based on 1990)
iii. the ratio of population 1990 to 1900
b) Which county has the largest population?
c) Which county has the smallest population?
Search the U.S. Census website for information on Census Jobs. List the types of jobs found working with the census data.
http://www.census.gov/hrd/www/jobs/emp_opp.html
· Statistician / Analyst
· Mathematical Statistician
· Information Technology Specialist
· Geographer
· Cartographer
Michigan Population Trends Student Name______
1. From the Michigan Census data enter data into a spreadsheet for Michigan’s population from 1900-1990. Enter similar data for the United States, and your specific county.
http://www.census.gov/population/cencounts/mi190090.txt
2. Construct scatter graphs (Census year on the x-axis) of the population data. Consider making separate graphs if the y-axis is too compressed to allow the county data to be seen.
3. Calculate the mean, median and mode for your county’s population. Explain why measures of center and variation are not as meaningful to describe population data as other measures.
4. Determine the least squares regression line for the population trend lines of the U.S., Michigan and your county. Report the equation of the regression line for each population trend line.
5. Based on the regression trend lines estimate the population of the U.S., of Michigan and of your County in 10 years, in 25 years, and in 100 years. What factors could affect the accuracy of the predicted populations based on these trend lines?
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