Measurement of industrialization stage of Guangdong Province

Yuan Jianwen

The economy of Guangdong Province has been lying in the front row of China for a long time, the industry of Guangdong Province ranks the primary importance of China for years. How to measure the industrialization stage of Guangdong Province? To the measurement of industrialization stage, there was riper research in the world, it is the theory of measuring developing stage of industrialization according to the per capita income that Chenery put forward to be representative, used widely in the world. There are a lot of achievements according to this theoretical research in China, most researchers convert the U.S. dollar standard that Chenery put forward into a standard of U.S. dollar now, but there are 3 kinds of measurement methods. First, convert our per capita RMB income into U.S. dollar according to the exchange rate now. Second, convert the per capita RMB income into U.S. dollar according to the purchasing power parity exchange rate that World Bank put forward. Third, convert the per capita RMB income into U.S. dollar according to a compromise between above-mentioned two exchange rates. 3 kinds of measurement methods are widely different. This shows in fact that the theoretical question of measuring industrialization stage according to the per capita income needs studying in China.

Another theory of measuring industrialization stage is Hoffmann’s proportion measurement, namely it measures the industrialization degree with the proportion of net output between the consumer goods industry and productive material industry in manufacturing industry. This paper regards Hoffmann’s theory as the prerequisite, is based on input-output table of Guangdong Province, and studies the measurement of industrialization stage of Guangdong Province. According to 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2000 and 2002 input-output tables of Guangdong Province, calculates the final consumption expenditures and the gross capital formation of final uses and calculates intermediate uses to every industrial department, with the proportion coefficient that the final consumption expenditures account for the three uses to resolve every industrial value-added as the industrial value-added of the consumer goods and industrial value-added of the productive material. According to Hoffmann’s theory, calculates the proportional relationship of the value-added between the consumer goods and the productive material industries, namely Hoffmann’s coefficient = the industrial value-added of the consumer goods / the industrial value-added of the productive material, and analyses these coefficients. To revise Hoffmann’s theory, calculates the proportional relationship of the final consumption expenditures and the productive material uses(intermediate uses adding the gross capital formation) in the industrial output, namely revised Hoffmann’s coefficient = the final consumption expenditures in the industrial output / the productive material uses in the industrial output, analyses comparatively these coefficients, and compares these coefficients with original Hoffmann’s coefficients.