Guide for Submissions: 0 {council name} Electoral Representation Review
Final Report
2015 Mitchell Shire Council Subdivision Review
Wednesday 4 November 2015
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2015 Mitchell Shire Council Subdivision Review Final Report
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Contents
1 Recommendation 4
2 Review background 5
2.1 Legislative basis 5
2.2 Scope 5
2.3 The VEC’s approach 6
3 Current review 7
3.1 Council background 7
3.2 Subdivision review preliminary report 9
3.3 Public response 9
4 Recommendation 10
4.1 The VEC’s findings 10
4.2 The VEC’s recommendation 12
Appendix 1: Public involvement 13
Appendix 2: Recommended ward boundaries map 14
1 Recommendation
The Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) recommends adjustments to the boundaries of all wards within Mitchell Shire Council. This recommendation is submitted to the Minister for Local Government as required by the Local Government Act 1989.
Recommended ward boundaries are illustrated in the map in Appendix 2.
2 Review background
2.1 Legislative basis
The Local Government Act 1989 (the Act) requires the VEC to conduct a subdivision review to ensure the equitable representation of all voters in a municipality.
A subdivision review considers adjustments to ward boundaries so that the number of voters each councillor represents is within 10 per cent of the average number of voters per councillor for the whole municipality. This is known as the ‘equality requirement’.
As population changes affect voter numbers and distribution in subdivided municipalities, one or more wards may be unlikely to meet this requirement at the next general election. A subdivision review considers adjustments to existing ward boundaries so the voter-to-councillor ratio in all wards meets the equality requirement.
Subdivision reviews only apply to subdivided councils:
· that are not scheduled for an electoral representation review before the next general election and
· where, two years before the council is to hold a general election, the VEC considers one or more wards are unlikely to meet the equality requirement at the time of the next general election.
The VEC notified the Minister for Local Government that Mitchell Shire Council’s North and South Wards were unlikely to meet the equality requirement at the Council’s 2016 general election. The Minister then advised the VEC that a subdivision review of the Council was required before the general election.
2.2 Scope
A subdivision review only considers the location of ward boundaries. A subdivision review cannot consider changes to the number of councillors or wards. These changes are considered in a council’s periodic electoral representation review. The next scheduled representation review for Mitchell Shire Council will be held before the 2024 general election. An earlier review may take place if required.
A subdivision review also cannot:
· change the external boundaries of the municipality
· divide municipalities or
· amalgamate municipalities.
These changes can only be made by an Order in Council.
2.3 The VEC’s approach
Developing recommended changes
Recommended changes to ward boundaries are modelled using both population growth data provided by .id (Informed Decisions) Pty Ltd[1], and voter statistics prepared by the VEC.
Models are developed using a ‘minimal change’ approach where possible, so recommended changes affect as few voters as possible.
The VEC also considers the following factors in developing its recommendation:
· relevant issues identified in the council’s last representation review
· communities of interest
· geographic features
· means of transport and traffic routes and
· the likelihood of population changes before the next election.
Public involvement
Public input is accepted by the VEC via:
· written submissions to the subdivision review preliminary report and
· a public hearing for people to speak about their submission.
Submissions are an important part of the process, but are not the only consideration during a review. The VEC ensures its recommendations are in compliance with the Act and are formed through careful consideration of public input, independent research, and analysis of all relevant factors.
3 Current review
3.1 Council background
Council profile
Mitchell Shire was formed in 1994 by the amalgamation of part of the Rural City of Seymour, the Shires of Kilmore and Pyalong, and parts of the Shires of Broadford and McIvor. The Mitchell Shire’s southern boundary sits on Melbourne’s suburban fringe, approximately 35 kilometres from the Melbourne CBD, encompassing part of the Urban Growth Boundary. The Shire borders the municipalities of Hume and Whittlesea to the south; Macedon Ranges, Mount Alexander and Greater Bendigo to the west; Strathbogie to the north, and Murrindindi to the east. The Puckapunyal military area is also located in the Shire. The age structure of Mitchell Shire reflects a relatively young population, with 27 per cent of the population under 18 years of age. People born overseas comprise 11.7 per cent of the population and 6 per cent speak a language other than English at home, which is about average for rural and regional Victoria.
Population trends in Mitchell Shire Council
Mitchell Shire Council currently has approximately 38,500 residents,[2] with around 29,400 voters.[3] The Shire is relatively large, encompassing 2,862 square kilometres, with the majority of the population residing in the towns of Wallan, Seymour, Kilmore and Broadford. Mitchell Shire is forecast to be the fastest growing regional municipality over the next 20 years, increasing to approximately 89,000 people by 2031. This represents a 4.7 per cent annual population growth rate, which is significantly higher than the Victorian rural regional average of 1.3 per cent.[4]
However, population growth is expected to differ significantly across the Shire, with the southern townships and surrounds of Beveridge and Wallan predicted to experience the greatest rates of growth. This is a direct result of the Victorian Growth Area Authority moving Greater Melbourne’s Urban Growth Boundary across Mitchell Shire’s southern boundary, setting the scenario for high levels of population growth in the south, with far more modest growth rates in the remainder of the Shire.[5]
Electoral structure
The last electoral representation review for Mitchell Shire Council took place in 2011. Following the review, the Minister for Local Government accepted the VEC’s recommendation that the municipality retain the existing electoral structure of nine councillors elected from three three-councillor wards, with modified boundaries. Diagram 1 details this structure and current voter statistics by ward.
Diagram 1: Mitchell Shire Council electoral structure and voter statistics, as at 2 July 2015
In making this recommendation, the VEC acknowledged that the existing structure provided sufficient representation of local communities and adequately reflected the relationships within and between towns in the Shire. However, the VEC also clearly outlined that the existing structure, even with modified boundaries, was susceptible to one or more wards being unlikely to meet the equality requirement before the next scheduled representation review.[6]
Current subdivision review
The current subdivision review of Mitchell Shire Council is occurring due to North Ward negatively exceeding the ±10 per cent tolerance by 2 per cent (-12 per cent). Based on current trends, South Ward is also on track to breach the accepted tolerance before the next council election, albeit positively.
3.2 Subdivision review preliminary report
The VEC’s subdivision review of Mitchell Shire Council commenced with the release of a preliminary report on Tuesday 8 September. The report contained proposed ward boundary changes based on analysis of enrolment information.
Advertisements were placed in the following newspapers to notify the public of the proposed changes:
· North Central Review, Tuesday 8 September
· The Age, Tuesday 8 September
· Seymour Telegraph, Wednesday 9 September
· McIvor Times, Wednesday 9 September.
3.3 Public response
Public submissions
The VEC accepted submissions responding to the preliminary report from Tuesday 8 September until Wednesday 7 October. The VEC received two public submissions. The submissions are discussed in detail in Section 4.1 and a list of people who made a submission can be found in Appendix 1.
Public hearing
The VEC scheduled a public hearing for those wishing to speak about their submission at
7.00 pm on Thursday 15 October in the Council Chambers, Mitchell Civic Centre, 113 High Street, Broadford. There were no requests to speak so the hearing was not held.
4 Recommendation
4.1 The VEC’s findings
The VEC’s primary concern in devising ward boundary changes at this subdivision review was to ensure that voter to councillor ratios meet legislative requirements leading into the 2016 local council election — with the chance for more substantial consultation and electoral structure changes to be made at a representation review some time beyond the next election.
The VEC proposed four relatively significant ward boundary changes in the preliminary report that kept legislative requirements and communities of interest (primarily geographic) together. These changes were released for public comment on Tuesday 8 September and included:
· Bringing the towns of Heathcote Junction and the majority of Wandong from South Ward into Central Ward, by extending the ward boundary along Wandong Road to the Hume Freeway.
· Moving all of Bylands into South Ward, by aligning the boundary of South Ward with the Bylands locality boundary.
· Bringing the boundary of North Ward further south to the outer edges of the towns of Broadford and Kilmore, using the clear boundaries of Broadford-Kilmore Road, Kings Lane and Paynes Road as ward boundaries.
· Moving Tyaak, Willowmavin, Forbes, Moranding and Reedy Creek (north of Strath Road), into North Ward. This would incorporate voters west of Kilmore into North Ward.
Diagram 2: The VEC’s proposed ward boundaries for the 2015 subdivision review of Mitchell Shire Council
Public submissions
Two submissions were received in response to the proposed boundary changes outlined in the preliminary report released on Tuesday 8 September. The submission from Mitchell Shire Council broadly endorsed the proposed ward boundary changes, with the exception of moving Willowmavin and Forbes into North Ward. The strong connection between the two localities and Kilmore was highlighted in the submission, with many Willowmavin residents commuting from and engaging in services in Kilmore and surrounds.
This connection between Kilmore and Willowmavin was also raised by a second submitter, with the interconnections between them including Kilmore residents attending Willowmavin Primary School and Willowmavin residents utilising services in Kilmore. The submitter also noted that the recent Kilmore bypass project had physically separated Willowmavin and Kilmore and the VEC’s proposed boundary may further compound a feeling of separation of residents.
Public hearing
No requests to speak at a public hearing were made, and therefore a public hearing was not held.
Findings and recommendations
The VEC welcomed feedback from submitters on the proposed ward boundary changes, especially the local insights into the potential impacts of the proposed changes on geographic communities of interest. The desire by submitters to retain Willowmavin and Forbes in Central Ward is acknowledged by the VEC, and the proposed boundaries have been modified to accommodate these preferences accordingly.
In order to fully contain these towns in Central Ward, the VEC recommends moving the northern boundary of Central Ward to the locality boundaries of Willowmavin, Kilmore and Kilmore East, continuing along Broadford-Kilmore Road to Dry Creek; following High Street along to the Hume Freeway and adjoining Strath Creek Road in the east of the Shire[7].
However, retaining these towns in Central Ward meant that projected voter to councillor ratios would significantly exceed the legislative requirements of ±10 per cent of voters per councillor by the 2016 council election. To mitigate this effect, the VEC has determined that retaining Heathcote Junction and the bulk of Wandong in South Ward is the best option for meeting legislative requirements while keeping communities of interest together. This is with the exception of the part of Wandong north of Wandong Road and west of the Hume Freeway, which includes 248 voters — a limitation of the model.
Apart from this change, the remainder of the Central and South Ward boundary remains unchanged. The VEC also returned the northern part of Bylands to Central Ward, leaving the current boundary unchanged in this area.
Overall, the VEC’s final recommended ward boundaries represent significantly less change than what was proposed in the preliminary report for this review. Taking into account the points raised in submissions responding to the preliminary report, the final recommendation has the added benefit of affecting only 750 voters (or 2.5 per cent of all Mitchell Shire Council voters) compared to over 2,500 voters that would have been transferred into different wards if the proposed ward changes had been adopted. The recommended ward changes also bring the deviations comfortably within the ±10 per cent tolerance, with North Ward at -6.95 per cent, Central Ward at +2.03 per cent and South Ward at +4.92 per cent based on current enrolment.
While the VEC is confident that the proposed boundaries will comply with legislative requirements at the 2016 council elections, it also notes that the Council’s electoral structure will likely require further examination prior to the 2020 council elections.
4.2 The VEC’s recommendation
The VEC recommends the following boundary changes within Mitchell Shire Council:
· Transferring the whole localities of Tyaak, Moranding, and Reedy Creek (north of Strath Creek Road) from Central Ward into North Ward; moving the northern boundary of Central Ward to the locality boundaries of Willowmavin, Kilmore and Kilmore East, continuing along Broadford-Kilmore Road to Dry Creek; following High Street along to the Hume Freeway and adjoining Strath Creek Road in the east of the Shire — with a small diversion along the Tyaak locality’s southern boundary toward the east of the Shire.
· Transferring voters in the part of Wandong that is north of Wandong Road and west of the Hume Freeway from South Ward to Central Ward.
Recommended ward boundaries are illustrated in the map in Appendix 2.
Appendix 1: Public involvement
Public submissions
Public submissions were received from:
Bob Humm
Mitchell Shire Council
Appendix 2: Recommended ward boundaries map
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Victorian Electoral Commission
Level 11, 530 Collins Street
Melbourne VIC 3000
131 832
[1] .id is a company specialising in population and demographic analysis that builds suburb-level demographic information products for most jurisdictions in Australia and New Zealand.
[2] Australian Bureau of Statistics, Estimated Resident Population 2014.
[3] Voter estimate calculated after the January 2015 merge of the State electoral roll and Council-only electors as at the 2012 council elections.
[4] Victorian Government, ‘Mitchell’, Victoria in Future 2014: Population and household projections to 2051: delwp.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/308379/Mitchell_VIF2015_One_Page_Profile.pdf
[5] Victorian Electoral Commission, Mitchell Shire Council Electoral Representation Review Preliminary Report, 2011.
[6] Victorian Electoral Commission, Mitchell Shire Council Electoral Representation Review Final Report, 2011.
[7] A diversion along the southern boundary of the locality of Tyaak occurs in the middle of Strath Creek Road.