GLOBAL LAND PROJECT
DRAFT SCIENCE PLAN
PROPOSED TO
IGBP AND IHDP
INTEGRATED GCTE AND LUCC RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
PREFACE
The Global Land Project (GLP) Science Plan represents the joint research agenda for the IGBP and IHDP for land-centric research. The focus of the new project includes people, biota, and natural resources (air, water, plants, animals, and soil). The strategy presented here critically emphasizes changes in the coupled human and environmental system. The research planning builds upon the extensive heritage of IGBP I global networks of scientists, data, and largely disciplinary understanding, particularly from the Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE) project and the Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) project. Their heritage will become basic components of the evolving integrative science of IGBP II and strongly promotes the linkage with the research approaches of the IHDP. In addition, during the past decade the value of critical assessments of global change science has proven to be essential in providing timely information to decision makers. In view of the important linkage between the global change research community and the assessment activities, we have identified activities within our research strategy which link and support research needs for the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment in the coming decade.
The GLP Science Plan develops a new integrated paradigm focused on two main conceptual aspects of the coupled system. First, is a focus on land use decision making and secondly, on ecosystem services. Land use decision making is fundamental in understanding why and how human activities alter the land system and how society will alter land use and land cover in response to changes in the Earth System. Ecosystem services are emerging as a new research topic to evaluate how ecosystem changes alter human activities in response to global environmental change. These aspects of the coupled human environmental system, decision making and ecosystem services, serve as conceptual lenses in developing the research plan.
The GLP Science Plan has strong linkages to the GCTE and LUCC research activities. There are still significant aspects of how ecosystems will respond and affect global environmental change that require further study. The Science Plan takes these efforts further in looking at multiple stresses on ecosystems and their effects on feedback to the Earth System and to the human system. Stronger linkages between the LUCC science activities and the GCTE activities have been formalized in the science plan. This integration reflects the desire of the GLP Transition Team to seek stronger interdisciplinary research efforts in the next decade of global change research.
The Science Plan is the outcome of numerous meetings during the past two years beginning with an initial scoping meeting in October 2001 at the Max-Planck Institute of Atmospheric Chemistry, Mainz, Germany where the Land Project and the Integrated Land Ecosystem–Atmosphere Processes Study (ILEAPS) were defined. This meeting was followed with a series of Land-focused meetings at the Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO in January of 2002 and in April of 2003. A critical joint IHDP and IGBP-sponsored meeting in Bilthoven, The Netherlands, in October 2002 provided scientists from core projects associated with both Programmes to have input into the development of the science plan. In June, the Science Plan was modified during the Banff IGBP congress to better integrate the research strategy. The input of Barbara Goebel and Gregor Laumann of the IHDP was critical at the Banff meeting in reshaping the structure of the Science Plan. The Banff research framework was reviewed and discussed at the Land Open Science Conference in Morelia, Mexico, December, 2003. The expanded science plan is based on the outcome of the working groups formed at the Land OSC and this material is incorporated in this draft of the Science Plan. (A list of scientists participating in the meetings is attached to the draft Global Land Project Science Plan.)
As a last note, special acknowledgement need to be given to Bill McConnell, Jill Lackett and Patti Orth who worked long hours over the holiday period with us to deliver the plan in its current form. Without their efforts we would not have a science plan.
We hereby present the Science and Implementation Plan of the Global Land Project for the next phase of global change research.
Sincerely,
Dennis Ojima, Emilio Moran (Co-Chairs) and the IGBP/IHDP Transition Team members
February 2004
PREFACE 2
INTRODUCTION 7
THEME 1: CAUSES AND NATURE OF LAND SYSTEM CHANGE 10
Sub-Theme 1.1: How does globalization and population change affect regional and local land use decisions and practices? 10
Research Question 1.1.1: How do supra-regional political and economic forces affect land use? 11
Research Question 1.1.2: How do population dynamics affect land use? 13
Research Question 1.1.3: How do political and economic transitions and policy failures affect land use? 14
Research Question 1.1.4: How do local knowledge and values affect land use? 15
Sub-Theme 1.2: How do changes in land management decisions and practices affect biogeochemistry, biodiversity, biophysical properties, and disturbance regimes of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems? 16
Research Question 1.2.1: How are ecosystem dynamics affected by different levels of land use intensity and changes in land use activity? 17
Research Question 1.2.2: How do the spatial relationships of different land uses affect ecosystem properties including biogeochemistry, biodiversity, and biophysics? 17
Research Question 1.2.3: What are the important differences in land use impact on ecosystem structure and functions across the urban‑wildland gradient? 18
Sub-Theme 1.3: How do the atmospheric, biogeochemical and biophysical dimensions of global change affect ecosystem structure and function? 19
Research Question 1.3.1: How do climate and atmospheric composition affect ecosystems? 20
Research Question 1.3.2: How do the seasonality and the interannual variability of extreme climatic events affect terrestrial systems and disturbance regimes? 21
Research Question 1.3.3: How do the combined changes of global to regional atmospheric characteristics affect biogeochemical cycles, ecosystems processes, and biodiversity? 22
Research Question 1.3.4: How do toxins and pollutants affect ecosystems and human health? 22
Research Question 1.3.5: How do changes in land and water management or land use impact atmospheric composition and climate? 23
Sub-Theme 1.4: What are the combined impacts of human and biophysical change on ecosystems? 24
Research Question 1.4.1: What are the impacts of changes in disturbance and management regimes on ecosystem structure and functioning? 25
Research Question 1.4.2: How do modified disturbance and management regimes resulting from urban footprints affect ecosystem structure and functioning? 27
Research Question 1.4.3: How do disturbance and management regimes affect the magnitude and ecosystem impacts of invasive species? 28
Research Question 1.4.4: Is it possible to describe the trajectory of regimes shifts and the dynamics of ecosystem structure and function following an abrupt disturbance (e.g., fire, logging, pest outbreak, secondary succession)? 28
Overall Considerations for the Implementation of Theme 1 29
THEME 2: THE CONSEQUENCES OF LAND SYSTEM CHANGE 31
Sub-theme 2.1: How do changes in ecosystem structure and functioning affect the delivery of ecosystem services? 31
Research Question 2.1.1: What are the appropriate metrics and measures of changes in the delivery of ecosystem services relevant to ecosystems and land systems? 32
Research Question 2.1.2: What are the services provided by various land cover types and how are their deliveries altered by land management and global environmental change? 33
Research Question 2.1.3: How do shifts in land cover alter the delivery of ecosystem services? 34
Research Question 2.1.4: How does a mosaic of land use types scale to the delivery of services by a landscape? 35
Sub-theme 2.2: How does human well-being depend on ecosystem services? 36
Research Question 2.2.1: What are the metrics and measures for valuating ecosystem services? 36
Research Question 2.2.2: How are the benefits and costs of ecosystem service use distributed across different stakeholders? 37
Research Question 2.2.3: How are ecosystem services translated into livelihood systems? 38
Sub-theme 2.3: How do humans adjust to changes in ecosystem service provision, and how does this adjustment vary by the magnitude and pace of changes in provisions? 38
Research Question 2.3.1: How do changes in ecosystem services affect human well-being? 39
Research Question 2.3.2: What strategies do different stakeholders use to adapt to changes in ecosystem services and what are the consequences over time? 40
Research Question 2.3.3: What is the nature and magnitude of tradeoffs in ecosystem services resulting from different land systems? 41
Research Question 2.3.4: How effectively do institutions manage changes and tradeoffs in ecosystem services? 41
Sub-theme 2.4: What are the critical feedbacks from changes in ecosystems to the coupled Earth System? 42
Research Question 2.4.1: How are ecosystem feedbacks to the Earth System affected by interactions of physical, chemical, and biological processes? 43
Research Question 2.4.2: How do relationships in space and time affect ecosystem feedback? 44
Research Question 2.4.3: Can budget closure of multiple elements within a region be adequately evaluated? 45
Research Question 2.4.4: How will projections of changing ecosystem dynamics affect feedback to the Earth System? 46
Overall Considerations for the Implementation of Theme 2 48
THEME 3: INTEGRATING ANALYSIS AND MODELLING FOR LAND SUSTAINABILITY 50
Sub-theme 3.1: What are the dynamics of land systems that lead to emergent and path-dependent properties and to thresholds changing the structure and function of the systems? 51
Research Question 3.1.1: What characteristics of land systems and their interdependencies trigger shifts in the human and environmental subsystems? 51
Research Question 3.1.2: How do changes in the interactions between the human and environmental subsystems change the land system and what are the emergent properties? 52
Research Question 3.1.3: How do past land-system conditions and contingencies influence the pathways open to changes in that system? 52
Research Question 3.1.4: How do Earth System changes affect the probability of different land-system pathways? 52
Sub-theme 3.2: How do the vulnerability and resilience of land systems to hazards and disturbances vary due to changes in human and environment interactions? 53
Research Question 3.2.1: What metrics and measures of vulnerability and resilience are useful to the analysis of land systems? 54
Research Question 3.2.2: How do the types and properties of hazards and disturbances affect the land system and its coping capacities? 54
Research Question 3.2.3: How do changes in coping capacity affect the exposure to and consequences of hazards and disturbance? 54
Research Question 3.2.4: What factors and processes beyond the land system affect its vulnerability and resilience, and how do the associated adjustments and adaptation in the land systems affect those factors and processes? 54
Sub-theme 3.3: Which institutions and policies enhance land sustainability? 55
Research Question 3.3.1: What are the consequences of the interactions among ecosystem services, land uses, institutions, and polices for the maintenance of different land systems and what mechanisms affect this maintenance? 56
Research Question 3.3.2: How effective are international environmental and resource regimes aimed at land uses (e.g., the International Tropical Timber Agreement) and why? 56
Research Question 3.3.3: What factors in land systems interact to trigger fundamental changes in the governance of land systems, and which sets of factors trigger endogenous institutional change? 56
Sub-theme 3.4: How can data and models at different scales and complexities of analysis improve understanding and enhance decision making and governance? 57
Research Question 3.4.1: How can discrepancies in data characteristics be resolved for robust model needs? 58
Research Question 3.4.2: How can quantitative and qualitative data be reconciled for integrated models and scenario development? 58
Research Question 3.4.3: What understanding and levels of sensitivity and uncertainty are lost/gained by increasing the complexity of integrated models across different spatio-temporal resolutions? 58
Research Question 3.4.4: How can research products of the Global Land Project assist the governance of land systems, including integrated models and decision support systems, and scenarios? 59
IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY 60
REFERENCES 71
GLOSSARY 83
ACRONYMS USED 87
PARTICIPANT LISTS 89
INTRODUCTION
Human transformations of ecosystems and landscapes are the largest source of change on Earth, affecting the ability of the biosphere to sustain life (Steffan et al. 2004, Vitousek et al. 1997). As a species, mankind has become ever more adept at appropriating and altering the Earth’s resources for human needs. Intensification and diversification of land use and advances in technology have led to rapid changes in biogeochemical cycles, hydrologic processes, and landscape dynamics (Melillo et al. 2003). Changes in land use and management affect the states, properties, and functions of ecosystems. In turn, these consequences affect human well-being. There is a need for improved understanding of how human actions affect natural processes of the terrestrial biosphere, and an even greater need to evaluate the consequences of these changes (Kates et al. 2001, NRC 1999). The research goal of the Global Land Project (GLP) is to measure, model, and understand the coupled human-environmental system (“land system”) (see Figure 1) as part of broader efforts to address changes in Earth processes and subsequent human consequences.
Global environmental changes affect the coupled human-environment system differently in different regions of the world. Biophysical alterations, such as increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations or enhanced erosion of soils, and social forces, such as globalization of markets, generate different responses in Northern vs. Southern hemispheres, urban vs. rural environments, and developed vs. developing countries. These, in turn, influence local land use decisions and the provision of ecosystem services. The resulting change to the environment can either promote or reduce the rate of environmental change. Links between decision-making, ecosystem services, and global environmental change define important pathways of feedback from coupled human-environment activities at the local and regional scale to and from global scales.
The Global Land Project focuses on the interactions of people, biota, and natural resources of terrestrial and aquatic systems. The strategy presented here emphasizes the study of changes in the coupled human-environmental system at local to regional scales, because changes in the states and functioning of ecosystems and related human activity tend to be captured at these scales. Changes in coupled human-environmental systems affect the rates of cycling of energy, water, elements, and biota at the global level, while global-level changes in political economy, such as international treaties and market liberalization, in turn affect decisions about resources at local and regional levels. Understanding changes in the coupled human-environmental system is enhanced when directed to the level of ecosystems and their synergy with human agents and societal structures, including the human consequences of biophysical changes. This research strategy provides a framework to better study the vulnerability and sustainability of the “coupled-system” in different regions of the world.