Control + 1 Block Headings s6

Space Trash DDI 2011

Contention One: Inherency:

Current programs not enough to solve collisions.

Pearson 2010. (Jerome Pearson is president of STAR, Inc., a small business in Mount Pleasant, SC, that has developed aircraft, spacecraft, and space-tether concepts for DOD and NASA. He invented the Earth and lunar space elevators, developed multi-winglets for lowered aircraft drag, published engineering solutions to global warming and space debris, and conceived the propellantless electrodynamic spacecraft EDDE. “The ElectroDynamic Debris Eliminator (EDDE): Removing Debris in Space” http://www.tbp.org/pages/publications/Bent/Features/SP10Pearson.pdf) hss

General Kevin P. Chilton says his U.S. Strategic Command tracks 21,500 catalog objects, involving about 800 active satellites, calculates potential collisions, and issues warnings to satellite operators. Each day it produces 800 conjunction analyses, about one for every active satellite. Many satellites can maneuver out of the way of debris when a near approach is predicted. However, STRATCOM does not have resources to predict every potential conjunction and issued no warning on the Iridium satellite last year.

Some LEO altitudes have already reached critical density.

Andrew Brearley, April 2005, Astropolitics, Volume 3, Issue 1, “Faster than a speeding bullert: Orbital debris”

The population of debris in LEO is rising towards a critical situation known as the ‘Kessler Syndrome’. At this point, there are so many objects in orbit that even without additional satellites deployments, the population will rise due to cascading, resulting from random collisions causing larger objects to fragment. The total mass would remain constant, but it would be redistributed in favour of smaller objects.73

Fragmentations can be divided into three categories: accidental failures of propulsion systems, deliberate actions and unknown causes.74 Deliberately destroyed satellites are usually military, either those that have come to the end of their life time which their owners do not want to be inspected by others,75 or those tested as part of space weaponry systems.76 Fragmentation is considered a serious threat; therefore, when satellites are placed in orbit the remaining fuel is vented from spent rocket stages to reduce the possibility of accidental explosions.77 The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) guidelines for debris, as presented to the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNCOPUOS), further state that batteries on board spacecraft should be designed such that they will not result in fragmentations when the craft becomes defunct.78 This process of pacification is important, as non-pacified upper rocket stages have been involved in a third of all known fragmentations in orbit.79 The requirement for mitigation measures is illustrated by the fragmentations that have been observed; eight separate occasions have individually produced over 240 pieces of debris.80

Should the Kessler Syndrome occur; the Earth would be surrounded by a permanent ‘debris belt’, just as Saturn has a ring around it. Although such chain reactions remain theoretical at present, expert opinion holds that two altitudes in LEO may have already reached ‘critical density’, 900–1,000 km and 1,500 km.81 The possibility of chain reactions is the most dangerous aspect of debris production;82 demonstrated by the fact that 85 per cent of all debris greater than 5 cm in diameter may be the product of fragmentation of upper rocket stages or spacecraft.83

Active Removal necessary to prevent collision cascade.

David Wright, codirector and senior scientist with the global security program of the Union of Concerned Scientists, October 2007, Physics Today, p. 37-38, “Space Debris”

If the debris density becomes large enough at some altitudes, those regions of space can become "supercritical," meaning that collisions between objects are frequent enough that they produce additional debris faster than atmospheric drag removes debris from the region. The additional particles further increase the collision probability in the region, which leads to a slow-motion chain reaction or cascade as the large objects in orbit are ground into smaller fragments. That situation is sometimes called the Kessler syndrome after Donald Kessler, who studied the possibility."A study released by NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office in 2006, before the Chinese test, showed that parts of space have already reached supercritical debris densities.11 In particular, the study shows that in the heavily used altitude band from 900 to 1000 km, the number of debris fragments larger than 10 cm is expected to more than triple over the next 200 years, even assuming no additional objects arc launched into the band. The study estimates that the total population of large debris in LEO will increase by nearly 40% during that time, still under the assumption of no additional launches. The debris from the Chinese test will make matters worse. An important implication of the study is that while mitigation efforts are important for slowing the increases, only debris-remediation measures such as removing large, massive objects already in orbit can hope to prevent their consequences. Remediation efforts such as robotic missions to remove defunct satellites and rocket stages arc very expensive, but are being studied.

Now is key to remove debris.

Senechal, 2007 (Thierry, Policy Manager with the International Chamber of Commerce. Over the years, he has served as an expert advisor in a broad range of international litigation and arbitration cases, Papers on International Environmental Negotiation, Volume 16 Enhancing the Effectiveness of the Treaty-making System, Editors Susskind and Moomaw, PON Books, Program on Negotiation at Harvard Law School, www.pon.org/downloads/ien16.2.Senechal.pdf ) hss

Other factors make it necessary to consider a convention now. First, from a commercial perspective, space activities are on an upward trajectory and new space powers are entering the commercial launching and space exploration market. As a result, most experts agree that space debris will continue to grow in the coming years. It should also be noted that space debris39 will increase exponentially as compared to payloads (See Figure 4-4 below).

Debris harmful to satellites and blocks space access

Stuart Clark, PhD in astrophysics, 9/11/10, New Scientist, “Who you gonna call? Junk busters!”, Lexis BB

EARTH'S rings have never looked so beautiful, you think as you look up at the pallid sliver of light arcing through the night sky. Yet unlike Saturn's magnificent bands of dust and rubble, Earth's halo is one of our own making. It is nothing but space junk, smashed-up debris from thousands of satellites that once monitored our climate, beamed down TV programmes and helped us find our way around. This scenario is every space engineer's nightmare. It is known as the Kessler syndrome after Donald Kessler, formerly at NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas. Back in 1978, he and colleague Burton Cour-Palais proposed that as the number of satellites rose, so would the risk of accidental collisions. Such disasters would create large clouds of shrapnel, making further collisions with other satellites more likely and sparking a chain reaction that would swiftly surround the Earth with belts of debris. Orbits would become so clogged as to be unusable and eventually our access to space would be completely blocked. On 10 February 2009 it started to happen. In the first collision between two intact satellites, the defunct Russian craft Kosmos-2251 struck communications satellite Iridium 33 at a speed of 42,100 kilometres per hour. The impact shattered one of Iridium 33's solar panels and sent the satellite into a helpless tumble. Kosmos-2251 was utterly destroyed. The two orbits are now home to clouds of debris that, according to the US military's Space Surveillance Network (SSN), contain more than 2000 fragments larger than 10 centimetres. The collision may also have produced hundreds of thousands of smaller fragments, which cannot currently be tracked from Earth. Such debris is a serious worry. With satellites travelling at tens of thousands of kilometres per hour, any encounter with debris could be lethal. "Being hit by a 1-centimetre object at orbital velocity is the equivalent of exploding a hand grenade next to a satellite," says Heiner Klinkrad, head of the space debris office at the European Space Agency in Darmstadt, Germany. "Iridium and Kosmos was an early indication of the Kessler syndrome." Space junk isn't just made up of dead satellites. It also includes spent upper-stage rockets, used to loft the satellites into orbit, and items that have escaped the grasp of butterfingered astronauts, such as the glove Ed White dropped in 1965 as he became the first American to walk in space, and the tool kit that slipped from Heide Stefanyshyn-Piper's hand during a 2008 space walk. Protective covers and the explosive bolts used to separate them from uncrewed spacecraft have also been left to float away, along with a few lens caps for good measure. Some of these objects re-enter the atmosphere and burn up, but most are still up there. The SSN has catalogued 12,000 objects in Earth orbit that are at least 10 centimetres in size, about three-quarters of which are space junk. For objects bigger than 1 centimetre, the estimates are frightening: there are anything from hundreds of thousands to millions of them, mostly in unknown orbits and each capable of smashing a satellite to smithereens. Every rocket launch creates yet more space debris, edging us ever closer to the Kessler syndrome becoming a reality.

Advantage One: Economy

The risk of collision deters private sector telecommunications investment in space

The market for commercial space launchers has witnessed rapid growth over the past several years. If more space debris accumulates, the business is at risk. Today, more and more activities rely on well functioning communication equipment in space. Any disruption can have major consequential losses. World geopolitics has dramatically changed since the 1960s race to the moon. At the time, the U.S. and the Soviet Union competed with one another, both on Earth and in space. Today, the space market is again on the upward trend. By the end of last century, the world satellite market generated revenues of about $11 billion. In terms of satellite launches, the year 2002 has shown the highest number of launches with 289. Today, the worldwide revenues for the market are around the $16 billion. The health of the global telecommunications market determines to a great extent the sustainability, and therefore the continuity, of space industry. For instance, of the 155 satellites successfully launched by Ariane-4, the French space launcher, in the course of its operation, 139 are telecommunications satellites. Of the 39 satellites launched by Ariane-5 by mid-2005, 26 are telecommunication satellites. It is estimated that 90% of the value of satellite payloads launched by Ariane-5 will be telecommunications-related.12 Several trends are positively impacting on the commercial satellite market. First, new needs have appeared. Networks of Little LEOs, Big LEOs, LEO broadband systems, MEOs and GEOs are scheduled for launch within the next seven years. With improvements in satellite components, technologies and production processes, satellite systems are improving in function, as well as in production and operational costs. 1994, a Space Plan for 1995-2006 was drawn and a U.S.$700 million budget allocated, for the launch of science and telecommunication satellites. South Korea, India, China and Japan all have strong space programs capable of integrating and launching satellites. As pointed by Frost and Sullivan, the “space systems market is encouraged by a new space race among Asian rocket and satellite buidlers vying for commercial customers on the global market.” At this pace, incidents are likely to occur. As a result, in case of damage and consequential business interruption for the commercial operators, there must be a compensation instrument put in place for recovering the cost of the loss. Typically, in the space industry, there are about 10-15 large insurers (called underwriters). There are about 13 international insurance underwriters that provide about 75% or so of the total annual capacity. However, none of them provides coverage for space debris damages. Because damages and losses caused by space debris are difficult to cover from a traditional insurance perspective, it is important to draft an international convention that would define the extent of national jurisdiction in outer space. In the following pages, I discuss how a liability and compensation mechanism can be implemented.

Telecommunications key to the economy.

Ernest C.A. Ndukwe, Chief Executive Nigerian Communications Commission, April 2002, “Practical applications of telecommunications”, Media Encounter Seminar,

The most dramatic impact of telecommunications have undoubtedly been economic. It is now accepted that the productivity and competitiveness of all economic sectors and their capacity to innovate in terms of products, services and processes increasingly depend on communications networks. Telecommunications networks are making it possible for developing countries to participate in the world economy in ways that simply were not possible in the past – by enabling them to take advantage of their intellectual and cultural resources. Computer networking has taken over localised computing all over the world to allow for resources and information sharing. The interconnection of computers has brought about greater efficiency and better information management. Clearly, technology is driving the new global economy. People, businesses and whole communities without ready access to information technologies are left behind in the fast paced world. International investors demand efficient and reliable access 4 to information, and new businesses will not locate in places where telecom access is readily and speedily available.

Destroyed satellites cost millions of dollars to replace

Lieutenant Colonel Joseph S. Imburgia, Judge Advocate for the United States Air Force, May 2011, Vanderbilt Journal of Transnational Law, Space Debris and Its Threat to National Security: A Proposal for a Binding International Agreement to Clean Up the Junk, Lexis. KH

Because so much of the United States' security depends on satellites, these integral space-based capabilities would, therefore, be costly to lose. That loss would be felt in more than just the security arena. Due to the steep price tags attached to some of the national space security platforms, the economic loss of a satellite due to space debris would also be significant. For example, a pair of new Global Positioning Satellites (GPS), which provides valuable targeting and battle space awareness to military commanders, costs $ 1.5 billion. n166 Accordingly, if a piece of space debris destroys one of these satellites, $ 750 million could be lost instantly. Additionally, NASA invests billions of dollars annually in space assets. Congress provided NASA with $ 18.3 billion to spend on space utilization and exploration for fiscal year 2010, and it provided $ 17.7 billion for fiscal year 2011. n167 Air Force General (retired) Ronald E. Keys, former Commander of Air Combat Command, summed it up best, stating that a great deal "rides on space-borne satellites." n168 Because these space capabilities are so costly yet so vital to the United States' national security and economic well-being, the preservation of these space capabilities should also be vital.