THE FERMI PARADOX
A Symposium to be held at the
British Interplanetary Society
Arthur C Clarke House, 27/29 South Lambeth Road, London SW8 1SZ
Tuesday 28th November, 2017
10 am to 5 pm (Registration from 9.30am)
Book www.bis-space.com - £45 Members, £55 non-members, £25 speakers
Includes lunch and refreshments
The British Interplanetary Society (BIS) will host a one day symposium, chaired by Alistair Scott and Gerry Webb, to discuss the problems posed by the Fermi Paradox. After well over half a century, the apparent absence of intelligent extra-terrestrials is no nearer an agreed credible solution than at the start. None of the life or civilisation terms in the Drake ‘equation’ have been inarguably evaluated. As Arthur C Clarke pointed out, the definite knowledge of the presence or absence of intelligent extra-terrestrials will be sensational, whichever it is. The time has come to review the facts as they appear at the moment and to discuss their implications.
PROGRAMME
MORNING
The Fermi Paradox: The Elephant in the Galaxy Gerry Webb
The significance of the Fermi Paradox is missed by most people. This may be because humans, because of their cosmically short lifespan, perceive interstellar distances to be a problem, and don’t consider the great timescales available to cross them. This first presentation will set the stage for the symposium and attempt to demonstrate why the Fermi Paradox is the most significant problem that the human race should be facing. Our future looks like death, or glory as the only inheritors of the galaxy. But which?
“We seem to be alone. Why?” Alan Bond
In this presentation the rates of evolution will be examined, showing that the rates of growth of the genome is statistical in nature and that we are on the extreme tail of the distribution. It is concluded that we are very rare, while much simpler organisms should be commonplace.
Extremophiles: The Resilience of Life at the Extremes of Temperature, Pressure and Salinity Robert Weinzierl
Numerous discoveries during the last few decades have shown that certain organisms can thrive under conditions that we would generally consider to be hostile and incompatible with life (low/high temperatures, high pressures, saturated salt concentrations etc.). While adapted in a specific manner, such “extremophiles” still use the same building blocks and biological mechanisms that are found in organisms living in more normal mesophilic environments. Modern biological research focuses on understanding the protective mechanisms and adaptations found in extremophiles to gain a better understanding of the environmental limits of life on earth and other planets.
COFFEE
Our galaxy as a home for life Dave Gifford
The discovery of extra solar planets has revealed a strong link with higher spectral metallicity stars. Further from galactic centre stellar metallicity drops to only 20% of the solar value. This suggests that terrestrial planets there are less numerous or absent. Is there a "Goldilocks zone" within the Milky Way most conducive for life? If so, this zone maybe narrow and discontinuous and, like the solar habitable zone, not stable but evolving outwards with time. The galaxy looks increasingly hostile to life as currently understood, providing us with only a single example. Life maybe rarer than popularly believed, ET rarer still.
Where and When Life can Live and be Found Dave Clements
As our exploration of the Solar System and of the history of life on Earth expands we find that life may exist in unexpected places, and that life on Earth has a longer and more complex history than we might think. In the Solar System we now know that liquid water, thought to be an essential ingredient for life, is more common beneath the icy surfaces of gas giant moons than it is on the surface of planets. If this is true in the rest of the galaxy then there are strong implications for where life might be found and for its potential for communication. We also know that life emerged very soon after the Earth’s formation, suggesting that it might be common in the universe. However, for most of the history of life on Earth it was dominated by anaerobic forms so the classical Ozone biomarker, planned for various space missions searching for life, would find nothing at all. Life might thus be common but difficult to find.
Life's Galactic Parameter Space Stephen Ashworth
The current ignorance of science concerning the abundance and nature of life on a galactic scale may be expressed as a parameter space whose permutations allow a number of possible scenarios to exist. Some of these scenarios produce a Fermi paradox, others do not. (This presentation will build on Stephen’s June 2014 JBIS paper).
LUNCH
Alone in the cantina: metalaw in an uncrowded universe Mukesh Bhatt
The first Space Lawyer, Andrew Haley’s concept of metalaw, later extended by Fasan, Freitas and others, was predicated upon the need to engage with non-human, non-terrestrial civilisations in a crowded universe. Given the current trend from a number of sources to view the universe as peopled uniquely and locally by terran humans, the role of metalaw needs to be re-evaluated as to its relevance and possible re-application. A number of situations and examples, and their implications concerning the possibility of a res nullius are discussed from a legal perspective.
A possible refinement of the Drake Equation’s “L” Term Mike Fisher
The author postulates that the SETI’s lack of success may in part be due to an underestimation of the amount of time needed for such signals to be detected, due to an unanticipated limit to the length of time that a civilization might emit easily detectable RF signals. The author invites discussion as to whether the concept presented has any merit, and, if it does, then request inputs for a future paper. (Mike cannot be present. His paper will be summarised by Gerry Webb).
Death, Taxes, or Human Annihilation: which is the least avoidable? Gerry Webb
Post World War 2 was the first period in history when the entire annihilation of human civilization looked likely. Cheap air travel and the anti-biotic crisis have since shown that we may all die choking rather than as radioactive dust. It can be shown that consciousness can be incorporated into any level of intelligence. How long before AI makes us redundant? All empires end and our world civilization is likely to end in chaos. Clearly, more ‘dooms’ are developing and will become apparent just as we evolve the means to become a space-faring species. Perhaps this phenomenon is universal?
Very Alien Aliens: Fermi’s Paradox Answer in the Work of Stanislaw Lem Maurizio Morabito
Fermi asks, why haven't we met aliens yet? Lem asks back, are we sure we haven't met aliens yet? Renowned Polish sci-fi supremo Stanislaw Lem was very interested in the problems of communication and misunderstanding and explored in his books the likely difficulties humans would have in recognising alien intelligences, let alone have a meaningful exchange with them. In particular, "Solaris" shows the possibly insurmountable wall of interspecies conversation, whilst in "Fiasko" the aliens are practically even impossible to describe. What if the aliens are around us, but we can't meet them (at least not so easily)?
TEA
A sad destiny – exhibits in a galactic zoo Tom Toner
Perhaps, for instance, befitting a society a million years more developed than our own, we are monitored by Von Neumann probes secreted amongst our gut flora. Or devices lurking in the Oort cloud. Or riding our sun's every photon, building a picture so comprehensive that they know us better than we know ourselves. Maybe the galaxy's life observes our world through motes concealed in the cones and rods of our eyes, or devices hidden within our neurons, experiencing an Imax of thought and sensation? What if each molecule of chlorophyll in the Amazon has been doctored to see and scent, assembling a mosaic image of our natural world? Or the clouds themselves are swarming with microscopic tourist life? Perhaps time itself is their plaything, and they can pause and rewind our lives, walking amongst our frozen forms? Or they exist in the reflections of every surface, only a dimension away.
Life, Jim, But Not As We Know It Ian Whates
Is it really so surprising that we have failed to find intelligent life among the stars? Given the brief time we have been looking and our own narrow perception of what 'life' entails, wouldn't it be a miracle if we had?
Speak up! Why the cosmic silence? Tom Toner
Perhaps, like an ocean suffused with whale song, some of the things we hear are indeed elements of conversation, but possibly moving at speeds, volumes and frequencies that lie beyond our sensory limits? Or maybe a long-established hegemony controls the galaxy clusters, snuffing out life whenever it arises. Or every species keeps quiet, like fish hiding amongst coral, too afraid to surface. Perhaps all life lies locked away beneath the crusts of ice moons, trapped before it can even get started, and we are the one exception? A greater understanding of our world, solar system and galaxy will only throw up more questions on this issue, not less, as we find new ways in which our potential observers could hide. (Tom will also discuss the alien species in his own novels and how they were developed.)
“Are we in fact alone?” Alan Bond
For a long time there have been many reports of unfamiliar machines in our skies. Scientific effort has gone into explaining these as mis-observed Earthly phenomena. In this presentation this phenomenon will be examined for its credibility for alien interest in the Earth.
17:00 Discussion
17:30 Close and socialising