FRONT PAGE

STATISTICS

An analysis of wagering data for Melbourne and Sydney Saturday Afternoon racing

2007 – 2008 Racing Year

While all care has been taken in the preparation of this analysis readers are invited to notify Allen Windross of any detected erratum


Foreword ( i )

The idea for this publication came from academic research conducted amongst punters across three states of Australia: New South Wales, South Australia and Victoria. The qualitative study used detailed, one to one, interviews and observations at racecourses and TABs in the three capital cities and selected regional centres. Information gathered in the research coupled with other published material enabled the following conclusions:

·  Across the year the most popular betting races are those conducted at Melbourne and Sydney galloping racecourses on Saturday afternoons.

·  Most punters rely on form guides and betting trends in making their selections.

·  While other form guides were observed to be used the most popular were the: Adelaide Advertiser, Melbourne Herald Sun, and Sydney Daily Telegraph.

·  Typically punters relied on information from the front page of the form guides rather than the detailed breeding and past event data contained on the inside pages of the guides.

·  In making a betting selection punters examined the parameters showing: the past few race finish positions of the horses (especially the last two races); the racing codes of ‘t’, ‘c’, ‘d’, ‘w’, ‘b’, and ‘h’; barrier draw; trainer; jockey; pre-post estimated $ return; notices of gear changes advised to the stewards; and the tips by the newspaper employed experts.

·  Subsequently it was observed that while statistics on the performances of trainers, jockeys and barrier positions are frequently published there appeared to be a void in relation to the other parameters.

Thus the idea of this publication was originated. It was decided the data would be drawn from the sources with the largest customer base: i.e., the Sydney Daily Telegraph and the TAB in New South Wales. In this regard while regional or parochial differences occur from time-to-time it was considered unlikely, considering the outcome of the academic study, that these differences would be significant across a racing year.

An initial examination of the computer-based Front Page Statistics led to the belief that there was benefit in breaking the data down from its primary elements to sections for: Melbourne and Sydney, Form based data: last two races, ‘t’, ‘c’, and ‘d’; Opinion based data: pre-post estimated $ return, tips from the experts; Pointer based data: ‘b’, ‘h’, and notices of gear changes.

After lengthy consideration it was determined that the inclusion of the ‘w’ parameter was not practicable given the wide range of weather and track conditions that would need to be evaluated. Finally the initial examination pointed to merit in splitting races into three categories: races restricted to two-year-olds, races restricted to three-year-olds, and all other races. The source for results was the Sydney Sunday Telegraph.

Allen Windross 2009

1

Key to the parameters and general explanations of the analysis process

< 5

The sum of the last two starts finish positions is less than five. 0 indicates ten or higher. The positive results are thus 11(sum =2), 12(sum=3), 21(sum=3), 22 (sum=4), 13(sum=4), 31(sum=4). The designators ‘x’ or ‘s’; denoting ‘a spell from racing’ are overlooked.

t

Won a race previously at this track.

c

Won a race previously at this track and at the distance of today’s race.

d

Won a race previously at another track and at the distance of today’s race.

PP

The pre-post estimated betting return in dollars and cents shown for each horse.

Tp

Tips made by the panel of racing experts engaged by the newspaper. The panel may range from one to many and comprises four tips for each race from each, listed as selected first to fourth.

h

The horse is trained at the track where the race is to be held. Note that the tracks of Moonee Valley and Sandown in Melbourne, and Canterbury Park in Sydney do not have horses trained at the track.

GC

The horse has been notified to the stewards by the trainer as having a gear change or variation to condition since its last race start.

b

Was the starting price favourite at its last race but failed to win.

SP

The starting price money return of the winner

In all cases, for ease of readability, numbers are rounded to the nearest whole number and money is rounded to the nearest ten cents. All bets are assumed to be at the rate of $1.

Amongst the tipsters’ selections the infrequent ties for most favoured are overlooked by taking the horse with the lower saddlecloth number and the same is applied to the rare win dead-heats in all parameters.

5

Races restricted to three-year-olds in combined Sydney and Melbourne

Total races: 168

Total starters: 1758

Mean average starters per race: 10 ---- Mean average betting return: $7.50

Starters and winners by parameter:

Parameter / # Starters / # Wins / % Wins to Starters / $ Betting Return / % Return on Outlay
< 5 / 427 / 52 / 12 / 290.60 / (32)
t / 164 / 25 / 15 / 145.60 / (11)
c / 80 / 15 / 19 / 112.70 / 64
d / 432 / 43 / 10 / 240.90 / (44)
PP outright favourite / 168 / 24 / 37 / 121.30 / (28)
Tp most favoured / 168 / 24 / 40 / 115.00 / (32)
b / 174 / 18 / 10 / 125.00 / (28)
h / 370 / 40 / 11 / 327.40 / (12)
GC / 264 / 26 / 10 / 269.10 / 2
Distribution of Betting Returns amongst the lowest 10, average 10, and highest 10
Parameter Occurences / < 5 / t / c / d / b / PP / Tp / h / GC
Lowest 10 betting returns: range $1.50 to $2.00 / 6 / 2 / 1 / 4 / 1 / 8 / 10 / 4 / 2
Average 10 betting returns: range $7.00 to $7.90 / 3 / 2 / 1 / - / 2 / - / - / 2 / 1
Highest 10 betting returns: range $30.90 to $66.10 / 1 / - / 1 / - / - / - / - / - / -

The full article with the complete year’s analysis can be obtained by purchasing at:

http://www.racinglinx.com/gamblingconsultant