5th Nile Basin Development Forum 2017

Theme: Investing in Nile cooperation for a water secure future

Kigali, Rwanda, October 23-24/25,

Abstract

Title: Project based transboundary cooperation: the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project(GERDP).

Author, affiliation and background:

Eng. Gedion Asfaw is currently TNC Chair Ethiopia, Tripartite National Committee(TNC) of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan. A 1973 graduate of Civil Engineering and MSC holder in Infrastructure planning with over 40 years of experience in water and environment fields. Former Regional Project Manager of the Nile Transboundary Environmental Action Project(NTEAP) located in Khartoum, Sudan and also former Vice Minister of Natural Resources and Environment Ministry of Ethiopia.

P.O.Box 8202, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, , Tel. +251911200779

Keywords: cooperation, panel of experts, GERD,

Background

The inauguration of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Project (GERDP) took place on April 2, 2011. The dam site is located in Guba woreda (district) in Benshangul-Gumuz Regional state about 700km north western of Addis Ababa and some 20 km upstream of the Ethio-Sudan border. The dam is located at the same site identified by United States Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation (USBR ) in the study entitled Land and Water Resources of the Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia conducted during 1958 and August 7, 1964.

The GERD Project comprises a 145 m high dam (170 m in correspondence of the River Gorge) and creates a reservoir with a surface of some 1,874 km2 and a total storage of some 74 Bm3. It has a surface Power House equipped with 16 power generating units, two units for early generation 375 MW each and 14 units with nameplate capacity of 410MW, for a total installed capacity of 6490MW (originally 5250 and later 6000MW). At the GERD site, the catchment area is some 172,250km2.. The long term mean flow at dam site is estimated to be 1,547m3/s. Seasonal variations are extreme, with monthly mean flow ranging from around 131 m3/s in April to more than 5,678 m3/s in August. The plant will produce 15,128 GWh annually, generating more than 750 M€ per year in revenue, and it has been estimated that it will cost approximately 0.63 M€/MW to construct.(Ref 1, p.2).

Such a huge project under construction on a transboundary river (the Nile) necessarily requires close cooperation among the three countries of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan.

Methodology and approach

The methodology followed included literature review and the author’s direct involvement in the process of the tripartite negotiations of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan during the last six years, including being a lead member of the International Panel of Experts and chair of the Tripartite National Committee of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan.

Key findings,

The Ethiopian government expressed its desire to cooperate with Egypt and Sudan on the GERDP by inviting the two countries to join it in establishing an International Panel of Experts (IPoE) to examine the impacts of the project on downstream countries.Subsequently, a tripartite ministerial meeting of Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan, which was held in Addis Ababa in November 2011, approved the terms of reference and rules of procedure of the IPoE.

The mandate of the IPoE was “to review the design documents of the GERD, provide transparent information sharing and to solicit understanding of the benefits and costs accrued to the three countries and impacts, if any, of the GERD on the two downstream countries so as to build trust and confidence among all parties.”

On May 31st 2013 the IPoE submitted its final report to the governments of Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan. The report enjoyed a mixed reception from the three countries, international community, regional organizations and civil society. This particularly emanated from pre-conceived ideas and expectations held by various stakeholders regarding the outcomes of the IPoE.

Following the submission of the final report, excerpts from the report were used by different actors in ways that suited their respective political perspectives and orientation. Extreme views such as proposing to halt the construction of the GERD were observed in the international media, including a threat of war by some elements in the previous government of Egypt.

Over three years after the submission of the final IPoE report, dialogue among the three countries has continued, centered on the recommendations of the panel. A Tripartite National Committee composed of four experts from each of the three countries is now making the necessary follow up on the conduct of the two IPoE recommended studies. Visits from leaders, ministers and experts from the three countries to the GERDP have continued, while technical meetings have been conducted in each of the three countries on a rotational basis thereby fostering greater opportunities for understanding. This process culminated in the signing of the Declaration of Principles(DoP) by the Heads of States of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan in March 2015. The significance of the DoP lies in the fact that the three countries agreed for the first time in the “equitable utilization and causing no significant harm “ principles in the use of the Nile waters. This was misinterpreted as if Ethiopia has abandoned the CFA process, overlooking the fact that this is a project based sub regional cooperation envisaged in the CFA.

Conclusions and recommendations

  • Although the three countries are striving to promote their cooperation on the GERDP, the complexity of issues related to the project, and the Nile in general, require continued collaboration and negotiation based on scientific knowledge and compromise.
  • The huge storage capacity of the dam (74BMC) created apprehension and with frequent negative media reporting the public opinion in the downstream countries made cooperative efforts difficult. Thus the role of media in promoting cooperation needs to be recognized and cooperating parties should have media strategy that encourages constructive engagement of the media through transparent information sharing about the project and status of the negotiation process.
  • Negotiating countries should recognize the most obvious advantages of GERD in the provision of stored water during drought and cheap renewable energy for the region and transparently discus on all impacts of the GERD with the aim of enhancing the positive impacts and avoiding and mitigating the adverse impacts.
  • The cooperating countries’ negotiators are not expected to compromise their respective national interests, however they need to recognize the importance of:- to engage in transparent manner, to reexamine their long held and entrenched positions, to learn from international experience and when faced with difficulties not to shy away from requesting third party assistance.
  • Finally, if the negotiations on the GERD among the three countries were conducted under the umbrella of the CFA and the NBI, the author of this abstract believes the negotiations would have been smoother and more fruitful.

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5th NBDF Abstract, Gedion A. September, 2017