7th meeting – 27 & 28 September 2004 / Eurostat C6 – Doc 118C/04
Newsletter
Item II.3 on the agenda of the meeting of the Working Group on Euroindicators
Newsletter – August 2004 1
Editorial
28thMeeting of the Committee on Monetary, Financial and Balance of Payments Statistics
Featured article byGallo Gueye
The Committee on Monetary, Financial and Balance of Payments Statistics (the CMFB, which brings together senior representatives of Member States, coming from national statistical institutes and national central banks and of Eurostat and the European Central Bank) held their 28th meeting on 15-16 June 2004 in Luxembourg. During this meeting, the CMFB discussed several topics related to short-term statistics.
Notably, the CMFB addressed the issues of quarterly European Accounts by Institutional Sector (Quarterly Sector Accounts or QSA) and the quality of quarterly national accounts.
The CMFB supported the current Eurostat/ECB project aimed at setting up QSA in 2006. This project includes a draft EU Regulation on QSA that is expected to be adopted in early 2005. It also covers a series of work intended to prepare the implementation of this Regulation. The availability of QSA will significantly improve business cycle analysis and forecasting in the euro area and the EU.
The CMFB also approved the final report and the recommendations of the Task Force on the quality of quarterly national accounts. These recommendations relate to the assessment of the quality of quarterly euro area /EU real GDP and its expenditure components. The Task Force proposed a set of quantitative indicators (e.g. scope, revisions, source data and timeliness) and qualitative indicators (e.g. transparency, metadata, relevance and consistency).
Eurostat plans to include some of these indicators in its press releases starting from autumn 2004. Member States will also aim to publish similar information about their national GDP estimates. This approach will make it possible to more closely monitor the indicators and to further improve the quality of quarterly GDP statistics. This in turn increases transparency vis-à-vis the users.
More details about the conclusions of the 28th CMFB meeting can be found on the CMFB website at
Highlights
Euro-IND statistical news
Industry, commerce and services (Industry New Orders)
The euro-zone industrial new orders index fell by 6.5% in June 2004 compared with the previous month, Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities, estimates today. The index rose by 6.4% in May and by 2.1% in April. EU25 new orders also decreased, by 6.4% in June 2004, after rises of 6.0% in May3 and 2.2% in April.
In June 2004 compared to June 2003, industrial new orders grew by 10.9% in the euro-zone and by 10.5% in the EU25.
Estimates for June 2004 – News release 103/2004 - 24 August 2004
External Trade
The first estimate for euro-zone trade with the rest of the world in June 2004 was an 8.7 billion euro surplus, compared with +7.1 bn in June 2003. The May 2004 balance was +7.8 bn, compared with +4.5 bn in May 2003. In June 2004, exports, seasonally adjusted, increased by 1.2% compared to May 2004 and imports by 3.8%.
The first estimate for June 2004 extra-EU25 trade was a 1.9 bn euro deficit, compared with -4.5 bn in June 2003. In May 2004 the balance was -3.0 bn, compared with -5.4 bn in May 2003. In June 2004, exports, seasonally adjusted, increased by 1.7% compared to May 2004 and imports by 4.4%.
Results for June 2004 - News release 102/2004 - 20 August 2004
Consumer prices
Euro-zone annual inflation fell from 2.4% in June to 2.3% in July 2004, Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities, reported. A year earlier the rate was 1.9%. Monthly inflation was -0.2% in July 2004.
EU25 annual inflation was 2.3% in July 2004, down from 2.4% in June. A year earlier the rate was 1.8%. Monthly inflation was -0.2% in July 2004.
EICP annual inflation was 2.2% in July 2004.
Inflation in the Member States:
In July 2004, the lowest annual rates were observed in Finland (0.2%), Denmark (1.1%), the Netherlands and Sweden (both 1.2%), and the highest rates were recorded in Slovakia (8.3%), Hungary (7.2%), Latvia (6.7%) and Poland (4.7%). Compared with June 2004, annual inflation rose in eleven Member States, fell in eleven and remained stable in three.
Lowest 12-month averages up to July 2004 were in Lithuania (-0.4%), Finland (0.5%), Denmark (1.1%), and the United Kingdom (1.3%); highest were in Slovakia (8.6%), Hungary (6.3%), Latvia (4.5%) and Slovenia (4.3%).
Estimates for July 2004 – News release No 101/2004 - 18 August 2004
Industry, commerce and services (Industrial production)
Seasonally adjusted industrial production decreased by 0.4% in the euro-zone in June 2004 compared to May 2004, Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities, estimates today. Production rose by 0.6% in May and by 0.3% in April. Output in the EU25 decreased by 0.2% in June 2004, after rises of 0.5% in both May and April.
In June 2004 compared to June 2003, industrial production increased by 2.7% in the euro-zone and by 2.9% in the EU25.
In June 2004, as compared to June 2003, capital goods increased by 4.9% in the euro-zone and by 5.7% in the EU25. Intermediate goods gained 2.8% and 3.1% respectively. Durable consumer goods grew by 1.6% in the euro-zone and by 2.7% in the EU25. The energy sector rose by 1.2% in both zones. Non-durable consumer goods rose by 0.1% in the euro-zone and remained stable in the EU25.
In June 2004, and among the Member States for which data are available, industrial production rose in seventeen Member States and fell in three. The highest increases were registered in Lithuania (+18.1%), Poland (+13.0%), the Czech Republic (+12.7%) and Hungary(+8.6%), while the only decreases were recorded in Greece (-1.5%), Portugal
(-0.3%) and Italy (-0.1%).
Results for June 2004 – News release No 100/2004 -17 August 2004
National accounts
GDP grew by 0.5% in the euro-zone and by 0.6% in the EU25 during the second quarter of 2004, compared to the previous quarter, according to flash estimates published today by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities. In the first quarter of 2004, growth rates were +0.6% for both zones.Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, GDP grew by 2.0% in the euro-zone and by 2.2% in the EU25 in the second quarter of 2004, after +1.3% and +1.7% respectively in the previous quarter.During the second quarter of 2004, US GDP increased by 0.8% compared to the previous quarter, after +1.1% in the first quarter. Compared to the second quarter of 2003, GDP grew by 4.8% in the US, after +5.0% in the previous quarter.
Forecasts for the second quarter of 2004 – News release 99/2004 - 13 August 2004
Industry, commerce and services (Volume of retail trade)
In June 2004, compared to June 2003, the volume of retail trade increased by 1.2% in the euro-zone and by 2.7% in the EU25, according to the first estimates out today from Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities. Compared to May 20043, the retail sales index increased by 1.8% in the euro-zone and by 1.2% in the EU25.
In June 2004, compared to June 2003, retail trade of “food, drinks and tobacco” increased by 0.6% in the euro-zone and by 1.5% in the EU25. The non food sector gained 1.8% and 3.8% respectively.Among the Member States for which data are available, total retail trade increased in Portugal (+12.5%), the United Kingdom (+7.1%), France (+4.1%) and Spain (+2.1%). The only decrease was observed in Germany (-1.9%).
In June 2004, compared with May 2004, “food, drinks and tobacco” grew by 0.8% in both zones. The non food sector rose by 2.0% in the euro-zone and by 1.2% in the EU25.
Among the Member States for which data are available, total retail trade increased in Germany (+1.9%), France (+1.5%), the United Kingdom (+0.9%), Spain (+0.8%) and Portugal (+0.4%).
Estimates for June 2004 – News release 98/2004 -4 August 2004
Labour market (Unemployment figures)
Euro-zone seasonally-adjusted unemployment stood at 9.0% in June 2004, unchanged compared to May, Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities, reports today. It was 8.9% in June 2003. The EU254 unemployment rate was 9.1% in June 2004, unchanged compared to May. It was also 9.1% in June 2003.
In June 2004, the lowest rates were registered in Luxembourg and Austria (both 4.2%), Cyprus (4.4%), Ireland (4.5%), the United Kingdom (4.7% in April) and the Netherlands (4.8% in May). Unemployment rates were highest in Poland (18.9%), Slovakia (16.2%), Lithuania (11.4%) and Spain (11.1%).
In June 2004 compared to June 2003, the unemployment rate for males in the euro-zone grew from 7.9% to 8.0%, while it fell from 8.4% to 8.3% in the EU25. The female unemployment rate grew from 10.2% to 10.3% in the euro-zone, and was unchanged at 10.0% in the EU25.
In June 2004, the unemployment rate for under-25s was 17.5% in the euro-zone and 18.2% in the EU25. In June 2003 it had been 17.2% and 18.5% respectively. The lowest rates for under-25s were observed in Austria (6.9%), Ireland (8.2%) and the Netherlands (9.1% in May 2004), and the highest in Poland (39.4%), Greece (27.1% in December 2003), Italy (27.1% in January 2004) and Slovakia (26.5%).
Eurostat estimates that, in June 2004, 12.7 million men and women were unemployed in the euro-zone and 19.4 million in the EU25. These are seasonally-adjusted figures in line with ILO criteria.In June 2004, the US unemployment rate was 5.6% and the Japanese rate was 4.6%.
Results for June 2004 - News release No 97/2004 - 3 August 2004
Industry, commerce and services (Industrial producer prices)
The euro-zone industrial producer price index remained unchanged in June 2004 compared with the previous month, Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities, estimates today. EU25 prices also remained unchanged. In May 2004 prices rose by 0.6% in the euro-zone and by 0.7% in the EU25.
Among Member States for which data are available, the highest increases were registered in Cyprus (+1.8%), the CzechRepublic (+1.0%) and Ireland (+0.7%), while prices in France and the Netherlands remained unchanged. The highest decreases were recorded in Finland (-0.6%), Lithuania (-0.5%) and Sweden (-0.2%).
In June 2004, as compared to June 2003, and excluding the energy sector, industrial prices increased by 1.9% in the euro-zone and by 2.0% in the EU25. Prices in the energy sector grew by 4.4% and 5.8% respectively. Intermediate goods gained 3.3% in the euro-zone and 3.4% in the EU25, and non-durable consumer goods rose by 1.7% and 1.8% respectively. Capital goods increased by 0.6% in the euro-zone and by 0.7% in the EU25, and durable consumer goods grew by 0.6% and 0.5% respectively.
Among Member States for which data are available, the highest increases were observed in Hungary (+9.0%), Cyprus (+8.0%) and the Czech Republic (+6.1%), and the lowest in Germany (+1.5%) and the Netherlands (+1.6%). The only decrease was registered in Finland (-0.4%).
Estimates for May 2004 – News release 96/2004 - 3 August 2004
Insight on:MOS – Proceedings of the 3rd Eurostatcolloquium on modern tools for business cycle analysis
This publication contains the proceedings of the third Eurostat colloquium on "Modern Tools for Business Cycle Analysis" held in Luxembourg on 28-29 November 2002. The subject of the colloquium was the statistical methods for business cycle analysis - detrending techniques, turning points detection, cyclical convergence and forecasting and multivariate decomposition methods.Valuable contributions from eminent researchers were presented during the colloquium that give an innovative lecture of the milestoneof the modern tools for business cycle analysis.
To buy the publication (paper version) you can address your request to:
- Eurostat network of Data Shops
- The Publications Office
Everyone can download all publications free of charge in PDF format through Eurostat website. For technical reasons this publication is not yet available (length of the PDF file), but soon you will be able to download it through Euroindicators website:
Here bellow the table of contents…
Contents:
Foreword, by Klaus Reeh
Statistical methods for business cycle analysis,
by Gian Luigi Mazzi and Giovanni Savio2
Session 1 – Detrending techniques
The impact of the macroeconomic hypothesis on the estimation of the
output gap using a multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter: the case of the
Euro area, by Odile Chagny and Matthieu Lemoine10
Modelling core inflation for the UK using a new dynamic factor estimation
method and a large disaggregated price index dataset,
by George Kapetanios39
Alternative linear and non-linear detrending techniques: a comparative
analysis based on Euro-zone data, by Torben Mark Pedersen51
Session 2 - Turning points detection
A comparative assessment of parametric and non-parametric turning
points detection methods: the case of the Euro-zone economy,
by Jacques Anas and Laurent Ferrara86
Non-parametric turning point detection, dating rules and the
construction of the Euro-zone chronology, by Donald Harding122
Constructing turning point chronologies with Markov-switching vector
autoregressive models: the Euro-zone business cycle,
by Hans Martin Krolzig147
Session 3 - Cyclical convergence and forecasting
Convergence and cycles in the Euro-zone,
by Vasco M. Carvalho and Andrew C. Harvey191
Forecasting monthly macroeconomic variables for the Euro area
by Massimiliano Marcellino216
Is there a common Euro-zone business cycle?,
by James Mitchell and Kostas Mouratidis227
Session 4 - Multivariate decomposition methods
The common converging trend-cycle model: estimation, modelling and
an application to European convergence,
by Rob Luginbuhl and Siem Jan Koopman264
State space decomposition under the hypothesis of non zero correlation
between trend and cycle with an application to the Euro-zone,
by Tommaso Proietti292
Newsfront
News from the Member States
Belgium
National Bank of Belgium's published the forecasts of the main economic indicators for 2004 and 2005.
For more details:
CzechRepublic
The volume of new construction work orders concluded in the CR stood at CZK 79.5 billion (most since 1995s), which translates into an increase of 49.1% y-o-y.
By types of construction the volume of new domestic orders:
-especially increased in the civil engineering works by 90.9%;
-increased in the construction of non-residential buildings designed for production by 69.9%;
-increased in the construction of non-residential buildings not designed for production by 22.9%;
-increased in residential buildings by 4.1%,
-decreased in construction of water buildings by 3.2%.
The average value of domestic new construction work orders was CZK 3.5 million and increased by 33.1% y-o-y.
Denmark
The Statistical Yearbook is published for the 108th time. The Yearbook was published for the first time in 1896, and it is now an indispensable classic in the Danish book market - in a modern design.
During the years the Yearbook has become more and more user-friendly - among other new developments are the references to the database StatBank Denmark. In addition to the 523 tables with Danish and international figures, the reference book also contains more than 100 pages of well-written text. Furthermore the Yearbook is illustrated with coloured figures and geographical maps. The Yearbook is only available in English as a PDF. Read it here.
Germany
According to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office, net borrowing of general government amounted to EUR 42.7 bn in the first half of 2004. Measured by the gross domestic product at current prices (EUR 1,070.7 bn), a deficit ratio of 4.0% has been calculated for the reference half-year. Hence, the deficit ratio was higher than in the corresponding period a year earlier.
For more details:
Estonia
In July 2004 the industrial production in Estonia increased both compared to the previous month and compared to the same month of the previous year.
In July 2004 compared to June, the seasonally adjusted industrial production in Estonia increased 3%. The production decreased in mining and in energy production, and increased in manufacturing.
Compared to July 2003, the industrial production grew 6% in industry as a whole and 8% in manufacturing. The growth in the manufacturing production was mainly influenced by the increase in the manufacture of wood and chemical products and building materials.
The industrial production shows an upward trend starting from 2000.
Source:
Greece
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in July 2004 as compared to July 2003, increased by 3,1%. A year earlier, the annual rate of change of the HICP was 3,5%.
The HICP in July 2004 as compared to June 2004 decreased by 1,9%. A year earlier, the monthly rate of change of the HICP was –2,1%.
In the twelve months, August 03 – July 04, the annual average rate of change of the HICP was 3,1%. A year earlier, the annual average rate of change of the HICP was 3,7%.
Spain
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices. (HICP) is a statistical indicator whose objective is to provide a common measurement of inflation which facilitates carrying out international comparisons and therefore examines compliance with fulfilment of the Maastricht Treaty demands for entrance into European Monetary Union. Last data is available:
France
Business leaders surveyed in April 2004 confirm the drop in value terms of industrial investment in 2003. It went down by 6% in manufacturing as in industry as a whole. This decrease would have been particularly sharp in the intermediate goods sector, in capital goods sector and in the food-processing industry.
With regard to 2004, business leaders carry on expect a recovery of investment, with a grow of 6% in manufacturing and 8% in industry as a whole. This gap of two points is explained by the dynamism of investment in oil refining: this sector is included in industry as a whole and excluded from manufacturing.
For manufacturing, this grow is mainly explained by the dynamism of investment in intermediate goods sector and in capital goods sector.
Cyprus
The unemployed persons, registered at the District Labour Offices on the last day of July 2004, increased by 781 compared with June 2004 and reached 11.690 persons or 3,4% of the labour force. The increase of the unemployed persons from the previous month was mainly recorded in the sector of services due to teachers and assisting staff employed in schools and colleges of Cyprus.
Latvia
The value of construction output in the first half of 2004 totalled 228.7 mln lats, an increase of 12.4% (at constant prices) in comparison with the first half of 2003, according to the Central Statistical Bureau. The value of construction output in the second quarter was 142.5 mln lats, 12.1% up on the second quarter of the previous year.
In the first half this year the value of own account construction work done outside the Republic of Latvia was 4.9 mln lats (4.6 mln lats in the first half of 2003). The largest part of construction work was done in the CIS countries and the countries of the European Union, 1.8 and 0.9 mln lats, respectively (1.6 and 0.5 mln lats in the first half of 2003).
Source: