2008 Election Cycle

Advantages & Disadvantages

Ann Nock – George K. Baum

June 3, 2008

Advantages

  • Not as much competition for voter attention
  • Possible lower cost to run the campaign due to lower turnout
  • Bond funds can be issued and available by Fall 2008

Disadvantages

  • Low voter turnout expected—Large high-propensity voter turnout and permanent absentee voter turnout which includes a great majority of senior citizens
  • Superintendent not identified
  • Lack of time to develop a public information effort and a district road show
  • Lack of time to recruit volunteers and fund raise
  • Uncertain economic outlook may negatively affect voter decisions

November 4, 2008

Advantages

  • Larger expected voter turnout is beneficial for tax measures
  • Greater voter awareness due to Presidential General election
  • Opportunity for Superintendent to introduce themselves to the community
  • More time to raise campaign donations and volunteer planning

Disadvantages

  • Can’t assess properties until July 2009
  • Simultaneous Board of Education election
  • Economic uncertainty
  • Larger turnout, which will cost the campaign additional dollars

Other Consideration For Timing of a Bond Election

Below staff has listed some points to consider as we approach a decision point on pursuing a facilities bond go forward. Some of these are similar to those raised above by our consultant.

Arguments Favoring a June Election:

  • If a June election fails, there is enough time to go out again in November (that decision must be made by July 2nd).There are no dates for a Prop 39 election in 2009.
  • There may be a better chance of passage in an election with a low voter turnout like a June election. However, this strategy is less predictable in recent years due to an increasing number of voters that vote exclusively by absentee ballot. November will have a higher turnout and a higher number of other issues on the ballot making it harder to determine whether the effect will be positive or negative.

Arguments Favoring a November Election:

  • We must do community surveys this December to provide the support, or lack of, for the decision in January to go with a June election. If we only do one survey, it may be better to have more time to educate the public on the issues than a June election would give us.
  • More time will have passed since the large hospital bond was approved.
  • There have been recent articles in the paper related to declining enrollment that may create an impression that there is not a need in the Truckee schools. It will take time to educate the voter on the fact that we do anticipate gradual growth in Truckee, and that growth is not the real focus of the projects in any case. This could impact results on surveys in December as opposed to surveys conducted in spring when we have done more community outreach.
  • At the beginning of June election campaign, we will not have chosen a superintendent. Also, the new superintendent (and board) will have a great deal on his/her agenda at a time they will be needed as a vital part of the campaign.Local leaders and community will not have had time to get to know the new superintendent.
  • It is projected that a greater number of Democrats will vote in November versus June.

Other impacts to consider:

  • Trustee elections – It appears that two trustees (Monty and Kristy) are up for election in November of ’08. They may want to consider whether they will want to run alongside a school bond.
  • Best time to mobilize committees? – Some board members may have a better feel for our ability to mobilize volunteers for a bond effort in the March-April-May timeframe versus the August-Sept-Oct timeframe.

As it stands we are working toward the June date because we must act quickly to make that happen. We will ask for direction from the Board on Wednesday after the discussion.