A scoping study
A report for Defra
Project Start date: 01/06/2009
Project end date: 30/11/2009
THIS PROJECT HAS BEEN FUNDED BY DEFRA. HOWEVER, THE CONTENT AND ANY RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED WITHIN THIS REPORT DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT DEFRA’S VIEWS
May 2011
1
November 2007
Trends in waste and resource efficiency in the food chain | A report for Defra
Contents
1Executive summary: key findings and priorities for consideration
2About this document
3Introduction
3.1Background and purpose
3.2Scope and approach
3.3Methodology
4The food chain
4.1How the food chain functions
4.2Characteristics of the food chain
4.3Pressure points
5Scenario development: possible future trends
6Key findings
6.1Key features of the future: uncertainty, volatility, and opportunities
6.2Risks
6.3Opportunities
7Priorities for consideration
8Questions for further research
9Longer-term possibilities
Sources
Annex I: Full methodology
Annex II: Stakeholder survey
© Brook Lyndhurst 2010
This report has been produced by Brook Lyndhurst Ltd under/as part of a contract placed by Defra. Any views expressed in it are not necessarily those of Defra. THIS IS NOT A STATEMENT OF DEFRA POLICY, BUT A PIECE OF EXPLORATORY RESEARCH. Brook Lyndhurst warrants that all reasonable skill and care has been used in preparing this report. Notwithstanding this warranty, Brook Lyndhurst shall not be under any liability for loss of profit, business, revenues or any special indirect or consequential damage of any nature whatsoever or loss of anticipated saving or for any increased costs sustained by the client or his or her servants or agents arising in any way whether directly or indirectly as a result of reliance on this report or of any error or defect in this report
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November 2010
Trends in waste and resource efficiency in the food chain | A report for Defra
1Executive summary: key findings and priorities for consideration
One of Defra’s Food Chain Policy Programme’s aims is to reduce the environmental impacts of food production and consumption, to work towards a more sustainable food chain. Understanding the key upward and downward pressures on waste generation, greenhouse gas emissions and water use can help to identify motivators for reducing the food chain’s environmental impacts, as well as barriers that need to be overcome. Having an understanding of how some of these pressures might change in future, and what the implications for the food chain and its environmental footprint would be, can provide insight into key risks, opportunities and priorities for action.
This document is the summary report of Brook Lyndhurst’s scoping studyFuture trends in waste generation and resource efficiency in the food chain project for Defra. The research took the form of an extensive literature review and a scenario development exercise, exploring a range of possible future trends over the next decade, their impacts on the behaviour of the food chain, and the resulting waste and resource efficiency implications.
The exercise revealed a multiplicity of factors with the potential to cause increases in the amount of waste, the level of emissions or the volume of water use. Similarly, numerous variables have the potential to drive more environmentally-positive changes. In many cases, a key factor has the potential to have either positive or negative consequences, depending on its interaction with other variables.
It was possible to identify key ‘pressure points’: instances where a factor has the potential to have a significant impact, positively or negatively; and to give preliminary thought to the kinds of action that could decrease the probability of negative impacts and/or increase the probability of positive impacts. This ‘Executive Summary’ focuses upon such pressure points.
The work was conducted as a scoping study. The results are neither a statement of government policy, nor a definitive ‘prediction’ of the future. The results – summarised below, set out in detail in this summary report and presented in more detail in an accompanying suite of food-chain specific reports – are intended as tools to be used in the development of further thought, further research and, in due course, policy development.
Gathering robust evidence on environmental impacts of the food production-consumption chain
An important priority is to improve the evidence base, particularly for sectors where little evidence exists or is available – examples are the wholesale and public sector procurement sectors, where little evidence exists, and the retail sector, where much evidence is not publicly available. This would provide a basis for improved modelling and planning of environmental impacts, including, for example, the ability to compare different food systems, and different patterns of dietary change, on the basis of their environmental impacts. This evidence gathering programme is underway at Defra and should be prioritised..
Introducing mandatory reporting of environmental impact data
Lack of consistent and transparent data on the environmental impacts of the food chain has been a key issue highlighted in this study. Mandatory reporting of environmental impact data throughout the food chain would not only provide a useful data set for identifying priority areas for action, but could potentially encourage actors in the food chain to improve their environmental performance if the data were publicly available.
There are a number of considerations that would need to be taken into account in developing guidelines for environmental impact data measuring and reporting. It would be important to ensure that key areas such as waste, energy use, other sources of greenhouse gas emissions, and water use were reported on. Water use in particular is an area where current data is poor, and our survey also indicates that this is an area where food chain stakeholders’ knowledge is weaker, compared to waste and emissions. Other types of data such as waste composition and disposal routes may also be deemed useful. Finally, data recording and reporting requirements may need to take into account staff capacity and be adapted to suit companies of varying sizes, to ensure that SMEs are not over-burdened by these requirements.
Pricing the environmental impacts of food production
The balance of costs and profits is a key behavioural driver in the food chain. Effective pricing of environmental impacts – waste, greenhouse gas emissions and water – would raise these outcomes to the forefront of decision-making in the food chain. In order to truly reflect the environmental impacts of food production, emissions pricing may need to go beyond carbon.
Pricing of environmental impacts would align the incentives of everyone working in the food chain, influencing everything from types of foods produced, through packaging materials and means of transport, to consumers’ purchasing choices – which would in turn strengthen the incentives at the production end of the food chain. Internalisation of environmental costs would work best in tandem with a wider public values shift (see below).
Encouraging a culture change around the way food is valued
A culture change among consumers to a new way of valuing food – moving from the ‘food as fuel’ attitude to an appreciation of food’s wider meanings and benefits – has, according to the scenario analysis, significant potential to change consumption habits and, in particular, to reduce waste at this key stage of the food chain.
Changing consumer demand would also have significant knock-on impacts throughout the rest of the food chain. However, some of these knock-on impacts might be unexpected and not what the consumer intended. For this reason, a values shift would work best in tandem with pricing policies, which would provide consumers with a price signal that indicates which are the more sustainable food choices, as well as providing a financial incentive for consumers to choose the more sustainable options.A shift in values could in turn increase public support for the pricing mechanisms, which would not necessarily increase the overall cost of food.
Ensuring seamless joint working between and within sectors
Improved co-operation between actors between or within stages at key points in the food chain has significant potential to improve the overall environmental performance of the food chain. Retailers have a key role to play in this respect, due to their market power. A key example is closer cooperation between the retail and manufacturing sectors: at both stages, some waste is currently generated as a result of mismatches between demand and supply. Closer co-operation between the two sectors, including data sharing, joint demand forecasting, and matching batch sizes to demand patterns, could reduce waste at both stages.
Altering incentives so that waste is valued for its embedded resources
Where unavoidable biodegradable waste is generated in the food chain, alternative means of disposal need to be prioritised to ensure that maximum value is extracted from the waste. Edible food waste from the production side of the food chain could be distributed through charities such as FareShare, and inedible food waste –Biodegradable Farm waste and manure could be used to generate energy through anaerobic digestion, possibly through developing local AD ‘hubs’. Energy-from-waste systems work best on a local scale, so investment into local infrastructure which can function as closed-loop systems will be important – as will public support which is closely tied in with the value shift mentioned above.
Improving skills throughout the food chain, both for those working in the industry, and consumers
Investing in training and environmental management planning throughout the food chain has the potential to not only reduce the environmental impacts of the food chain, but to result in cost savings for food businesses in the form of reduced waste disposal costs and energy bills. Consumers’ cooking skills also play a vital part in the kind of value shift discussed above. Improvements in food shopping, storage and preparation skills go hand in hand with a renewed appreciation of food’s social role, environmental impacts and nutritional value, as well as with waste reductions.
Building on existing policy to improve the environmental performance of the food chain
A range of effective policy and legislative measures are already in place, which are driving the behaviour of the food chain in a more environmentally responsible direction. There is scope to continue building on these existing measures, and to accelerate change in areas where progress is too slow.
Ensuring that the food industry is diverse and fair
Ensuring fair competition at all stages of the food chain, and encouraging diversity within sectors, could avoid imbalances of power that can, in some cases, lead to lower efficiency and higher waste. For example, at the retail stage, encouraging more, local, smaller stores, rather than large out of town superstores, could reduce supply chain and consumer transport emissions associated with food (as long as distribution systems are designed with environmental impacts in mind). Enforcing initiatives such as the Grocery Supply Chain Code of Practice (GSCOP) could remove some of the constraints that producers have on reducing waste.
Supporting the food chain in adapting to emerging pressures
A key feature of the future highlighted in this research is its inherent uncertainty and volatility. Working towards a resilient and sustainable food supply system will require all stages of the food chain to adapt to changing pressures. Appropriate support, from the development of organisational policies through to investment into low-carbon technologies, should be targeted at specific stages and parts of stages as needed.
Making use of technology to reduce the environmental impacts of food production
Technologies have a role to play in improving the environmental performance of the food chain. Key elements include the widespread roll-out of energy-from-waste technologies, decarbonisation of the mains energy supply and of transport fuels, and increased water collection and storage to even out spatial and temporal variation in water availability.
2About this document
This document is the summary report of Brook Lyndhurst’s scoping study Future trends in waste generation and resource efficiency in the food chain project for Defra. It provides an overview of the risks, opportunities and cross-cutting themes with regard to waste generation and resource efficiency across the entire food production-consumption chain. This report is complemented by a set of nine detailed reports, one for each stage of the production-consumption chain. While the current report gives an overview of the whole food chain, the sector-specific reports provide summaries and priorities for each individual stage.
Figure 1– Reporting structureThe background work on which this report is based includes an extensive literature review and a scenario development exercise. The scenario development exercise explored different possible responses at each stage of the food chain to the following 12 possible future trends over the next ten years (see pages 15-16 of this report for more details of the trends):
Table 1Future trends exploredTrend / Name
1 / Availability of natural resources decreases
2 / The price of oil and energy increases
3 / Extreme weather events increase
4 / Environmental issues are prioritised in government policy and legislation
5 / Food prices rise
6 / Global demand for food, especially meat, increases
7 / Consumer demand for cheap food and convenience increases
8 / Demand for sustainable, healthy and ethical food increases
9 / Global trade is liberalised
10 / The UK economy stagnates while the other G20 economies resume growth
11 / Technological fixes are developed
12 / Skills and knowledge are lost
Responses to these drivers of change encompassed varying degrees of resilience under changing conditions. These were termed‘resilience’, ‘non-resilience’, and ‘capitalising on change’, in other words seizing the trend as an opportunity.
The overarching finding of this scenario development exercise is that the vast majority of the mechanisms required to mitigate risks and capitalise on change are already in place, or at least known to us. The aim of this set of reports is to provide decision makers with a summary of possiblefuture trends in waste and resource efficiency for each policy area, and a basis from which to prioritise actions now and over the coming decade.
Section 5 details the priorities for consideration over the next 10 years identified by this research. In summary, these are:
- Gathering robust evidence on environmental impacts of the food production-consumption chain;
- Introducing mandatory reporting of environmental impact data;
- Pricing the environmental impacts of food production;
- Encouraging a culture change around the way food is valued;
- Ensuring seamless joint working between and within food chain stages;
- Altering incentives so that waste is valued for its embedded resources;
- Improving skills throughout the food chain, both for those working in the industry, and consumers;
- Building on existing policy to improve the environmental performance of the food chain;
- Ensuring that the food industry is diverse and fair;
- Supporting the food chain in adapting to emerging pressures;
- Making use of technology to reduce the environmental impacts of food production.
Note on method
The result of exploring three scenarios, in relation to 12 trends, with regard to nine stages of the food chain, was a set of over 300 ‘mini-scenarios’, with associated indicators of waste, greenhouse gas emissions and water use outcomes. The summary report and nine stage-specific reports provide an analysis of the patterns that emerged from the complexity of the mini-scenarios, with the aim of setting out the key risks and opportunities over the next decade for waste and resource efficiency in the food chain.Due to the impracticality of making such a large volume of material available, the mini-scenarios are not part of the published outputs of the project.
The mini-scenarios combine the evidence reviewed with expert input from our panel[1] and stakeholder group[2] and our own analysis and judgement of the issues. The mini-scenarios were developed and analysed systematically and collaboratively by a team of researchers, and our assumptions were set out transparently at every stage. However, futures work necessarily involves an element of informed speculation, and the findings in this report and the supporting documents should be read in this light. An overview of the full research methodology can be found in this summary report, and a detailed account of our approach is located in the appendices.
It is important to note that an extensive literature and evidence review provided the basis for all of this work (approximately 330 sources were used – see pages 34 – 45 of this summary report for a full list). The sources used as the evidence base for the scenarios at each particular stage are listed at the end of each report; they are not referenced within the main ‘futures’ sections of the reports, since these do not directly cite previous research, but rather the available evidence was used ‘behind the scenes’ in the development of the scenarios.
3Introduction
“If my explorations of the food chain have taught me anything, it's that it is a food chain, and all the links in it are in fact linked.– Michael Pollan (2009) In Defence of Food: An Eater’s Manifesto
3.1Background and purpose
The UK food chain generates approximately 18-20 million tonnes of waste[3], uses 43 million tonnes of oil equivalent in energy andgenerates 160 million tonnes of CO2e in greenhouse gas emissions per year.[4] Data on water use by the food chain tend to be included in data for wider sectors: ONS data on water use for primary production, food and drink manufacturing (including tobacco) and wholesale, hotels (including non-food use) and catering adds up to 2,870 million cubic metres per year; domestic water use, including food preparation but also other domestic activities, accounts for a further 3,250 million m3 per year.[5]
One of Defra’s Food Chain Policy Programme’s aims is to reduce the environmental impacts of food production and consumption, to work towards a more sustainable food chain. It aims to do this while enhancing other policy goals where possible (or at leastwithout compromising them), for example, improving access to affordable and healthy diets, improving animal welfare standards, and supporting agriculture in developing countries.