1. | Introduction and methodology

Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall, Inc. (DHM) conducted a telephone survey of voters living in the City of Portland. The purposes of the survey were to gauge public opinion toward economic strategies for the city of Portland, and to measure public awareness of the Portland Development Commission. Results are benchmarked against a similar survey conducted in 2010. An additional oversample section measured responses from African American, Hispanic, and Asian participants.

Research Methodology: Between March 13 and 20, 2013, DHM conducted a telephone survey of 400 registered voters in Portland, Oregon.This sample size is sufficient to assess voter opinions generally and to review findings by multiple subgroups including age, gender, and area of the city. The sample was designed from a randomly generated list of those registered to vote, including cell phone numbers. The interviews lasted an average of 10-11 minutes.

Statement of Limitations: Any sampling of opinions or attitudes is subject to a margin of error, which represents the difference between a sample of a given population and the total population (here, voters in Portland). For a sample size of 400, if respondents answered a particular question in the proportion of 90% one way and 10% the other, the margin of error would be +/-2.9%, at the 95% confidence level. If they answered 50% each way, the margin of error would be 4.9%.[1]

These plus-minus error margins represent differences between the sample and total population at a confidence interval, or probability, calculated to be 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the sample taken for this study would fall within the stated margins of error if compared with the results achieved from surveying the entire population.

DHM Research: DHM Research has been providing opinion research and consultation throughout the Pacific Northwest and other regions of the United States for over three decades. The firm is non-partisan and independent and specializes in research projects to support public policy-making.

2. | SUMMARY & OBSERVATIONS

Portlander’s are feeling optimistic about the city’s direction.

  • 61% felt things were heading in the right direction, a boost of 6% from 2010.
  • 34% cited confidence in the mayor and new elected officials as the reason for their optimism.

Participantsshowed strong approval for PDC’s work on economic development, but many were unfamiliar with the agency.

  • 72% agreed with the statement that the PDC plays an important role in our community.
  • Nearly eight in ten (78%) had either “very little” or “just some” knowledge about PDC.
  • PDC had higher overall positive scores than negative (30% vs. 20%), but 50% responded either “neutral” or unsure when assessing their favorability of the agency.
  • PDC ranked higher than all other surveyed agencies when it came to impact on economic development, with strong ratings among ethnic groups.
  • Among ethnic groups, knowledge of and support for PDC was highest among African Americans.

Job creation was rated as the top issue for PDC.

  • Participants gave the highest rating to creating and keeping good jobs in Portland (8.2 average) as an economic area for PDC to focus on.
  • When prioritizing the partnership services that PDC provides, a majority selected assistance for businesses that create family wage jobs in any location in the Portland region as the most important.
  • Participants selected develop and educate a workforce that attracts employers and jobs to our city as their most preferred objective for the PDC-established Education Urban Renewal Area around Portland State University.

Participantsplaced the highest importance on PDC’s economic development projects that focus on underserved and underdeveloped communities.

  • When ranking PDC’s projects, assist businesses that are located in underserved neighborhoods (95%) and focus on neighborhoods most in need of business growth (93%) received the highest scores.
  • For each economic development project, African Americans provided stronger “high” priority ratings than all other ethnic groups as well as the city-wide sample.
  • High numbers were unsure about PDC’s performance in each of the economic development projects.

The most popular tax proposal for street maintenance was a tax on hotels and rental cars.

  • 35% supported a hotel and rental car tax (35%), followed by a local gas tax (24%).

3. | KEY FINDINGS

3.1 |Warm Up & General

We started the survey by asking participants if they felt things in Portland were heading in the right direction or were off on the right track (Q1).

Six in ten (61%) felt that things were heading in the right direction; compared to nearly three in ten (27%) who felt things were on the wrong track.

Demographic Differences: Democrats (69%) were much more likely than Republicans (27%) to feel that things were heading in the right direction. Optimism about the city’s direction decreased with age: 18-34 (76% right direction), 35-54 (63%), and 55+ (54%).

Ethnic Differences: Asians (73% right direction) and Hispanics (70%) were more optimistic about the city’s direction than African Americans (62%).

Trend Data: The 61% who felt things in Portland were heading in the right direction was a 6% boost from 2010 (55% right direction).

Participants were next provided the opportunity to give open-ended explanations as to why they selected either right direction or wrong track for Q1 (Q2-Q2a).

The following were the most common answers provided for right direction (Q2):

  • Confidence in mayor/new elected officials (34%)
  • Economy is improving/more jobs (18%)
  • No major concerns/not on wrong track (12%)

The following were the most common answers provided for wrong track (Q2a):

  • Budget isn’t balanced—overspending/spending on wrong projects (25%)
  • Roads need improvements (15%)
  • Lack of education funding (class sizes, programs) 12%)

Participants were next asked—using an open-ended format—what they thought was the most important issue facing the city of Portland and required the most attention from the city’s government (Q3).

The following were the most common answers:

  • Repair roads (15%)
  • Fund education in general (14%)
  • Job creation/economic recovery (10%)

Trend data: In 2010, participants chose economic issues at a rate of 28%, indicating an 18% drop between then and 2013.

3.2 |Favorability Levels

Participants were provided a list of local government agencies and asked to provide their impressions of each (Q4-8).

Overall, combining “very” and “somewhat” favorable responses, participants gave the highest favorable ratings to TriMet (47%) and Metro (45%). PDC had higher overall positive scores than negative (30% vs. 20%), with a notable 50% either “neutral” or unsure.

Demographic Differences: TriMet saw large favorability gaps between age groups, with approval decreasing with age: 18-34 (68%); 35-54 (45%); 55+ (39%). Conversely, PDC saw approval increase with age: 18-34 (22%); 35-54 (27%); 55+ (36%). All agencies received higher overall favorable scores from Democrats than Republicans.

Ethnic Differences: PDC received strong favorability scores from African Americans (44%; 18% “very” favorable). Of all of the agencies, Hispanics gave the highest “don’t know” responses to PDC (52%), while a notable two-thirds (73%) of the Asian participants responded either “neutral” or “don’t know” about PDC.

Trend Data: PDC saw a modest drop in favorability of 7% (37% to 30%) between 2010 and 2013; however, it is likely that gap consists of participants moving into the “don’t know” column between 2010 and 2013 (19% to 28%).

3.3 |Economic Development

Using the same list of agencies from Q4-8, participants were asked to decide which agency does the most for economic development in Portland (Q9).

One-third (33%) of participants selected PDC, making that the most-chosen agency for economic development. The next most popular selections were “don’t know” (27%) and Portland City Council (17%).

Demographic Differences: Opinions of PDC’s impact on Portland’s economic development differed geographically, with those living west of the Willamette River (33%) and between the Willamette River and I-205 (35%) more likely than those living east of I-205 (25%) to cite PDC as having the most substantial impact.

Ethnic Differences: PDC received the highest ratings across all ethnic groups regarding perceived impact on Portland’s economy, with the exception of Asian participants who rated it equally to the Portland City Council (both 19%), while also providing a high “don’t know” rating of 42%.

Trend Data: No significant differences to note.

3.4 |Knowledge Levels

Participants were asked to rate their knowledge level of PDC (Q10).

Nearly eight in ten (78%) said they had either “very little” or “just some” knowledge about PDC, compared to the 20% who said they had either a “great deal” or a “fair amount” of knowledge;” a 4 to 1 split.

Demographic Differences: Claims of “very little” or “just some” knowledge about PDC were higher than 70% across all demographic subgroups.

Ethnic Differences: Among ethnic groups, knowledge of PDC was highest among African Americans (30%), while roughly nine in ten Asian (89%) and Hispanic (88%) participants claimed to have “just some” or “very little” knowledge about PDC.

Trend Data: Knowledge of PDC dropped 12% from 2010 to 2013, while those who said they knew “very little” about the organization increased 11%. Unsure responses remained the same.

3.5 |Importance of Issues

Participants were provided a list of economic areas that PDC is involved with and were asked to rank each on a scale of 1 to 9 according to how important they are to focus on right now (1=Not at all important; 2=Extremely important)(Q11-14).

Participants gave the highest rating to creating and keeping good jobs in Portland (8.2 average; 89% rating of 7+8+9); though it is worth noting that all other economic areas received strong ratings (scores of 7+8+9 at a rate of roughly 60% and higher).

Demographic Differences: Creating and keeping good jobs in Portland receivedaverage ratings of 8.0 or higher from all demographic subgroups, with 50% or more of all groups providing a peak score of 9.0. The lowest scoring economic area—ensuring that minority and women-owned businesses are included in construction and contracting work—had a strong partisan gap, with Democrats providing an average score of 7.1, compared to 5.3 among Republicans (a sizable divide of almost 2 points on the scale).

Ethnic Differences: All ethnic groups provided higher ratings for ensuring that minority and women-owned businesses are included in construction and contracting work than the city-wide sample, with all groups providing scores of 7+8+9 at a rate of 76%, 17% higher than the city-wide sample for that category. Asian participants tended to provide higher unsure responses than all other ethnic groups.

Trend Data: The only economic area that saw any significant change from 2010 was creating and keeping good jobs in Portland, which saw its average rating jump modestly from 7.9 to 8.2.

3.6 |Prioritizing PDC Assistance

Participants were read a series of partnership services that PDC provides and were asked about the highest current priority (Q15).

Half of participants (52%) selected assistance for businesses that create family wage jobs in any location in the Portland region as the most important partnership service for PDC to prioritize, more than twice that of the other two services: assistance for small businesses located in neighborhoods (21%) and assistance for businesses in key areas like clean technology, software, athletic and outdoor, advanced manufacturing, and research (20%).

Demographic Differences: Top ratings for assistance for businesses that create family wage jobs in any location in the Portland region were roughly 50% or higher among all demographic subgroups, with the sole exception of those ages 18-34 (38%); this was the only subgroup to select a different partnership service as their top priority: assistance for businesses in key areas like clean technology, software, athletic and outdoor, advanced manufacturing, and research (39%).

Ethnic Differences: Similar to the city-wide sample, all ethnic groups selected assistance for businesses that create family wage jobs in any location in the Portland region as their top priority, with the exception of Asian participants who scored a tie between that partnership service and assistance for businesses in key areas like clean technology, software, athletic and outdoor, advanced manufacturing, and research (both 38%). African Americans provided the highest score for assistance for small businesses located in neighborhoods (36%; 15% higher than the city-wide sample).

Trend Data: This question was not asked in 2010.

3.7 |Prioritizing Economic Development Projects

Participants were provided a brief description of PDC’s goals for improving Portland’s economy and were read a list of potential projects to help reach those goals. They were then asked to assign a priority level to each project: high priority, medium priority, or low priority (Q16-20).

More than 70% of all participants provided either a “high” or “medium” priority rating for each economic development project, with the highest combined scores given to assist businesses that are located in underserved neighborhoods (95%) and focus on neighborhoods most in need of business growth (93%; strongest “high” priority rating at 57%).

Demographic Differences: Those east of I-205 provided notably lower ratings for each of the two projects than their counterparts between the Willamette River and I-205, and west of the river: Focus on neighborhoods most in need of business growth (west of the Willamette: 57%; between the Willamette and I-205: 60%; east of I-205: 46%) and assist businesses that are located in underserved neighborhoods (west of the Willamette: 58%; between the Willamette and I-205: 57%; east of I-205: 40%).

Ethnic Differences: For each economic development project, African Americans provided stronger “high” priority ratings than all other ethnic groups and the city-wide sample, with roughly 75% “high” priority ratings for both of the top-two projects mentioned above.

Trend Data: These questions were not asked in 2010.

3.8 |Support for PDC Urban Renewal Area

Participants were asked whether they approved or disapproved of a number of project objectives for the PDC-established Education Urban Renewal Area around Portland State University (Q21-25).

Total support (“strongly” or “somewhat”) was 80% or higher for all project objectives, with the strongest intensity of support given to develop and educate a workforce that attracts employers and jobs to our city (68% “strongly” support).

Demographic Differences: No significant differences.

Ethnic Differences: With the exception of develop new research and technology to attract cutting edge businesses, African Americans provided higher “strongly” support ratings than all other ethnic groups and the city-wide sample for each project objective (still scored higher than the city-wide sample on that project objective). This finding was similar to the ethnic differences from Q16-20.

Trend Data: These questions were not asked in 2010.

3.9 |Statement Agreement

Participants were read a list of statements about PDC and asked to state their level of agreement with each (Q26-32).

Total agreement (“strongly” and “somewhat”) was highest for the statement that the PDC plays an important role in our community (72%), followed by the PDC is a good community partner (60%), and the PDC has built partnerships to make a positive difference in neighborhoods around Portland (57%). No other statement received a total agreement score higher than 50%. Unsure responses were notably high in this series of questions.

Demographic Differences: Total agreement (“strongly” and “somewhat”) for the PDC plays an important role in our community showed some notable divides between geographic areas and political parties. First, those from west of the Willamette River (76%) and between the Willamette River and I-205 (73%) were more likely to agree than those from east of I-205 (62%). Second, Democrats were more likely to agree than Republicans by a stretch of 21 points (73% vs. 52%).

Ethnic Differences: Similar to other questions, African Americans gave stronger total agreement than all other ethnic groups and the city-wide sample for almost all of the statements about PDC; this time with the sole exception of the PDC uses money wisely (still scoring higher than the city-wide sample on this statement).

Trend Data: These questions were not asked in 2010.

3.10 |Street Maintenance Tax Sources

Participants were read a brief description of a recent audit of Portland’s transportation priorities, including the estimated cost to meet the city’s road maintenance goals over the next ten years. They were then asked which of a series of taxes they would most support to pay for street maintenance in the city (Q33).

The two most popular responses were a hotel and rental car tax (35%) and a local gas tax (24%). All other options came in at 12% or lower, including no tax/fee (12%).

Demographic Differences: Democrats were more supportive of all tax mechanisms (excluding no tax/fee) than Republicans, with the exception of a hotel and rental car tax (Democrats: 32%; Republicans: 48%). The two most popular responses saw strong divides by gender and demographic area. Females were more supportive than males of a hotel and rental car tax (40% vs. 31%), while males were more supportive than females of a local gas tax (31% vs. 18%). Also, those east of I-205 were more supportive of a hotel and rental car tax (43%) than those west of I-205 (31-34%), while being less supportive of a local gas tax than those west of I-205 (16% vs. 23-33%).

Ethnic Differences: Support for a local gas tax was notably high among Asian participants (35%; compared to 24% among the city-wide sample), while support for a hotel and rental car tax was notably high among Hispanic participants (48%; compared to 35% among the city-wide sample).