Zimbabwe, South Africa: Shaping a Post-Mugabe Government

Zimbabwe, South Africa: Shaping a Post-Mugabe Government

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Summary

The United States and its allies have long been urging South Africa to do something about the government of Robert Mugabe in neighboring Zimbabwe, once known as the breadbasket of southern Africa and now perilously close to being a failed state.Now, new South African President Jacob Zuma is moving to shape a post-Mugabe government -- and ensure that South Africa doesn't lose itsdominant influence in southern Africa.

Analysis

South African President Jacob Zuma is visiting Zimbabwe Aug. 27 for a one-day meeting with government officials, including President Robert Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai. It is Zuma’s first visit to Zimbabwe since he was inaugurated South African president in May and only his second bilateral trip since taking office.

The stated purpose of the meeting is to discuss Zimbabwe’s power-sharing struggles, though the real reason for the trip is to help Zimbabwe envision and shape a post-Mugabe future, something the West has been urging South Africa to do for years. Mugabe, 85, has been in office since 1980, and Zuma wants to ensure that whoever succeeds him reflects South Africa’s interests as well as Zimbabwe’s.

Previous South African President Thabo Mbeki, who ruled from 1999 to 2008, was considered an apologist for Mugabe and refused to criticize or put any kind of pressure on his regime, which has turned what was once the breadbasket of the region into a diseased dustbowl. In June, on a three-week tour abroad to seek help in rebuilding his country, Prime Minister Tsvangirai visited the United States and met with U.S. President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The Zimbabwean prime minister estimated that the country needs $100 million to $150 million per month to operate and is appealing for an injection of $2 billion (and possibly $10 billion overall) to fund new jobs and infrastructure development projects. Such international financial assistance will start flowing only after Mugabe leaves office.

To effect such a transition, Zuma will have to get the approval of Zimbabwe’s largest tribe, the Shona, who make up about 70 percent of the country’s population. Making the case to the general Shona population that their lives will improve with the Mugabe regime out of power will not be a hard sell, especially if Zuma’s South Africa makes a material commitment to rebuilding Zimbabwe. Moreover, members of Mugabe’s regime, especially those drawn from the Shona tribe, will have to be assured that they will be protected physically and financially once Mugabe steps down, which will likely occur within the next two years. The Shona also must be assured that they will not suffer reprisals if they were to relinquish the control of power in Zimbabwe.

Zuma will have to make inroads into five political factions now maneuvering to succeed Mugabe, though not all five have an equal chance. Two factions come from within Mugabe's ruling circle -- the Joyce Mujuru faction and the Emmerson Mnangagwa faction, both of which are from the Zimbabwe African National Union (ZANU) wing of the ruling ZANU-Patriotic Front(ZANU-PF) party. Two other factions come from the Zimbabwe African People's Union (ZAPU), and one of these factions is allied to ZANU-PF. A fifth faction, the one with the least chance to succeed Mugabe, is the Movement for Democratic Change(MDC) party, led by Prime Minister Tsvangirai.

The two factions from Mugabe's inner circle are led by current Vice President Mujuru and Defense Minister Mnangagwa. Together with herhusband,Solomon Mujuru, who was Zimbabwe's first army commander, Mujuru forms a very powerful block with deeppockets and access to a private militia. Mnangagwa, also a powerful Zimbabwean politician, was once in charge of the government's Rural Housing portfolio and previously commanded Zimbabwe's Central Intelligence Organization.

However, neither Mujuru nor Mnangagwa have been able to gain favor as the heir apparent, largely because of the damage they have done to each other in recent years trying to maneuver for ascendency.

Mujuru and Mnanagagwa are both Shona (though from different sub-tribes), but there is another part of ZANU-PF that represents the country's second-largest tribe, the Ndebele, which make up the PF part of ZANU-PF. In the struggle for independence, the Ndebele (an offshoot of South Africa's Zulu tribe who fled into what is now Zimbabwe in the early 1800s from Zulu king Shaka's wars of conquest) formed ZAPU, and its armed wing was called the Zimbabwe People's Liberation Army (ZIPRA). ZAPU and ZIPRA fought a guerilla campaign against the white Rhodesian government (as did Mugabe’s ZANU), but when it came to full democratic elections in Rhodesia in late 1979, the country's Shona population, supporting the Mugabe-led ZANU, won the day, defeating ZAPU to form the country's first multiracial government. With Mugabe at the helm, ZANU proceeded to rename Rhodesia Zimbabwe.

The Shona and the Ndebele have a long history of conflict, which even today has not been entirely extinguished. Ndebele subjugation of the Shona in the 19th century was held in check during British colonialism. After independence -- and in control of government -- the Shona took their vengeance, killing tens of thousands of Ndebele over several years in a campaign led in part by Emmerson Mnangagwa. A truce was reached in 1987 in which ZAPU disarmed itself and joined ZANU, forming a coalition government. ZAPU was given perpetual control over a secondary vice presidential position in Harare, though it was destined to play second fiddle to the Shona, who dominated the newly created ZANU-PF.

Memories of subjugation have not been forgotten by either the Ndebele or the Shona -- nor have the Zulu in South Africa (of which President Zuma is a member) overlooked the hand dealt their Ndebele brethren in Zimbabwe. While theShona are maneuvering among themselves to succeed Mugabe, the Ndebele are also trying to stake their claim in Harare. The chairman of ZANU-PF, John Nkomo, is a Ndebele politician who is positioning himself to succeed Joseph Msika, who had been Zimbabwe’s second vice president until his death on Aug. 5. Should he be elected vice president during the ZANU-PF party congress scheduled for Dec. 8-13, Nkomo could manage to raise the profile of the Ndebele within ZANU-PF.

But there is another Ndebele faction working in the wings to reassert the tribe’s historic position in Zimbabwe. Dumiso Dabengwa, interim leader of ZAPU, recently declared the Ndebele faction officially separated from ZANU-PF. South African President Zuma has held a number of recent meetings with Dabengwa, including one during Zuma’s inauguration in May and another during traditional Zulu festivities in South Africa in June, when Zuma recognized ZAPU’s break from ZANU-PF and thanked ZAPU for its support of Zuma’s African National Congress (ANC) during the ANC’s struggle against white rule in South Africa.

Dabengwa’s break, strengthened by Zuma’s recognition, got Mugabe’s attention. The Zimbabwean president reportedly has offered the Ndebele politician the secondary vice presidential post. Dabengwa has made no move toward the position, however, knowing Mugabe’s track record of ending the careers of rivals through patronage appointments. A promise of support and protection from Zuma would be much more valuable to Dabengwa’s aspirations for ZAPU than would his acceptance of a dead-end Mugabe offering.

Though the South African president can exploit tribal linkages to influence the Zimbabwean regime, South Africa has other tools it can bring to bear to effect change in Zimbabwe. The Zimbabwean economy is heavily dependent on and integrated into the South African economy, which is the largest economy on the continent. South Africa could literally turn out the lights in Zimbabwe-- or lead international reconstruction efforts there -- if Zimbabwe accepted a deal from Zuma.

But South Africadoesn’t have to play nice. It has much experience, going back to its colonial and apartheid days, of fighting conventional as well as undeclared wars against its enemies in southern Africa. It also has covertly backed political opposition factions in the region to try andbring down ruling regimes.

Zuma is not going to step in and fix Zimbabwe just because foreign powers ask him to. But Zuma will intervene if it is in South Africa’s best interest and if he has the opportunity. It appears that the Zulu-related Ndebele may offer just the opening he needs.