C11

Yew Tree Hill, Droitwich Spa

Appeal A:Barberry Droitwich Ltd

Appeal Ref: APP/H1840/A/13/2199085

Appeal B:Persimmon Homes Ltd

Appeal Ref:APP/H1840/A/13/2199426

Position Statement Following the Submission of Additional Evidence to the South Worcestershire Development Plan Examination in Public – 7 February 2014

The housing requirement for Wychavon District will eventually be set out in the South Worcestershire Development Plan (SWDP) which is at examination. On 31 October 2013 the appointed Inspector, Mr Roger Clews, issued his interim conclusions on the matters considered at stage 1 of the examination. At paragraph 44 of his report Roger Clews asks the three SWDP Councils “to undertake some further analysis in order to derive an objective assessment of housing need over the Plan period.” (a summary of his requests with respect to the SHMA is set out in Appendix 1)

The Councils duly commissioned five consultancies (Amion Consulting, Edge Analytics Limited, Cambridge Econometrics, Experian and Oxford Economics to carry out the required work which was published on Monday 3 January 2014. Following the submission of hearing statements from interested partied the public examination of this technical evidence will commence on Thursday 13 March.

At paragraph 45 Inspector Roger Clews recognises the large variation in employment forecasts. To this end the Councils obtained 3 employment (jobs) forecasts (NB: all are higher than the projections previously produced by Cambridge Econometrics based on economic scenario (Public Sector Austerity) which informed the housing requirement set out in the SWDP submission document). Amion Consulting consider (see paragraph 2.4.5) that the 3 forecasts are up-to-date, realistic and representative. Edge Analytics Limited provided new demographic and employment based scenariosfor each of the three districts in South Worcestershire using the latest official population data i.e. the 2012 Mid Year Estimates, and revised estimates for 2002 to 2011 informed by the 2011 Census. Amion Consulting then critically assessed the new evidence and concluded that the appropriate dwelling requirement for the plan period for South Worcestershire i.e. 2006 -2030 is between 26,700 and 27,300 representing an increase of between 3,500 and 4,100 dwellings above the 23,200 South Worcestershire housing provision target in submitted Policy SWDP 3.

Projections of future population were produced using the following four broad scenarios:

  • Core Scenario 1 (ONS 2010 – based Sub-National Population Projections (SNPP);
  • Core scenario 2 (National Charge);
  • Core Scenario 3 (Migration Led);
  • Core Scenario 4 (Employment Constrained) Core Scenario 4 incorporates both demographic and economic factors which meets the Inspector’s request (paras 42, 46, 47).

Core Scenario 4 actually comprises three jobs-led ‘core’ scenarios,one for each of the three jobs forecasts, which gives a range between 12,799 (533 p.a.) and 11,860 (494 p.a.) dwellings for Wychavon District (Appendix D - Table D5 Amion Consulting Report January 2014). Core Scenario 4 however assumes that the principal factors which determine the extent to which future jobs growthwill require population growth (and hence household growth) will remain constant (as at 2011) over the plan period to 2030.

Consequently two sets of ‘Sensitivity Scenario’ projections were produced by Edge Analytics Limited using modified assumptions regarding economic activity and unemployment rates in order to provide more realistic forecasts. Sensitivity Scenario 2 assesses the sensitivity of the jobs-led ‘core’ scenario results to changes in the assumptions underpinning two significant parameters i.e. economic activity rates (which have been modified to the Government’s planned changes to the State Pension Age) and unemployment rates (modified to account for a period of recovery post – 2013 based on previous rates).

Sensitivity Scenario 3 takes into account a further significant parameter which is how two of the aforementioned labour market variables respond to economic conditions, in particular changes to the supply of jobs. Activity rates by age cohort are increased in response to the tightening (improving) labour market, based on econometric analysis of job vacancy and unemployment data and the relationship with economic activity rates.

Based on the evidence set out at Annex 1 to Appendix C Amion Consulting Report (January 2014) paragraphs C.A.1 to C.A.13, Amion Consulting consider the jobs-led Sensitivity Scenario 3 incorporates the most realistic assumptions currently available and using the ‘central case i.e. the mid point between the lowest and highest forecasts and ‘average case’ i.e. the average of the Cambridge Econometrics, Experian and Oxford Economics forecasts provides the most robust basis for future population and household and numbers, and therefore the dwelling numbersIn paragraph 4.7 (and repeated in the Executive Summary paragraph ES10) AMION consider Sensitivity Scenario 3 to be the best estimate of housing need for the South Worcestershire Authorities to consider when setting their housing targets. This is the evidence of the full objectively assessed housing need for market and affordable housing in South Worcestershire. For Wychavon District this gives a forecast dwelling requirement of between 8,888 and 8,891 dwellings for the period 2006 – 2030. (Tables 3.5 and 4.1 Amion Consulting Report January 2014).

Appendix 1

Inspector’s (Roger Clews) Interim Conclusions on the Matters Considered at Stage 1 of the SWDP Examination (28 October 2013)

Summary of the recommended further analysis in order to derive an objective assessment of housing need over the plan period (paras. 44-48)

  • With respect to the demographic stage of the analysis touse the latest (2011) available official population projections and adopt NLP’s ‘index’ approach to translate them into future household numbers.
  • Obtain up-to-date and realistic employment forecasts to inform the analysis. Examine and compare forecasts from more than one source to ensure as far as possible that any they rely on are representative of the likely economic situation over the plan period.
  • Assess the implications of the representative employment forecasts in terms of in-migration. Include realistic assessments on older people’s economic activity and falling employment rates.
  • Ideally prepare more than one employment based scenario to illustrate the implications of different levels of employment growth. Any sensitivity tests to be carried out in any significant assumptions made in this stage of the analysis.
  • Separate modelling will need to be carried out to assess the level of housing need in each local authority and which then should be aggregated to give an objectively assessed need figure for South Worcestershire as a whole.

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