WWS 598 / POP 508 - Epidemiology
Schedule of Lectures (subject to change)
Monday & Wednesday 9:00 - 10:30 a.m, Robertson Room 10
February 2 / Topic 1: Introduction and overview
· Jamison, D.T. et al (2013). Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation. Lancet 382:1898-1955.
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(13)62105-4/fulltext
February 4 / Topic 2: Disease transmission and occurrence
· Kucharski & Edmunds (2014) Case Fatality Rate for Ebola in West Africa Lancet S0140-6736
February 9 / Topic 3: Measurement of mortality & population health
· GBD 2013 Mortality and Causes of Death Collaborators (2014) Global, regional, and national age–sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 Lancet
February 11 / Topic 4: Survival analysis
· Gajendragadkar et al. (2013) The survival time of chocolates on hospital wards: covert observational study British Medical Journal 347:f7198
February 16 / Topic 5: Randomized clinical trials
· Adebamowo et al. (2014) Randomised controlled trials for Ebola: practical and ethical issues The Lancet 384 p1423
· Shaw (2014) Randomisation is essential in Ebola drug trials The Lancet 384 p1667
· Cohen & Kupferschmidt (2014) Ebola vaccine trials raise ethical issues Science 346 p289
· Leaf (2013) Do clinical trials work? New York Times
· Bailey et al. (2007) Male circumcision for HIV prevention in young men in Kisumu, Kenya: a randomised controlled trial 369 643-656
February 18
Problem Set 1 Due / Topic 6: Cohort studies
· Kaiser (2014) Ambitious children’s study meets disappointing end Science 346 p1441
· Hyponnen et al. (2001) Intake of vitamin D and risk of type 1 diabetes: a birth-cohort study. Lancet 358 1500
February 23 / Guest Lecture: Jessica Bliss – Nutrition and infection
· Black et al (2013). Maternal and child undernutrition and overweight in low-income and middle-income counties. The Lancet 382, no. 9890 p 427-451.
February 25 / Topic 7: Case control and cross-sectional studies
· Taubes (2007) Do we really know what makes us healthy? New York Times
· Foltz et al. (2014). Epidemiologic Investigation of Potential Risk Factors for Nodding Syndrome in Kitgum District, Uganda. Plos One 8 e66419
March 2 / Topic 8: Measuring risk
· Lim et al. (2013) A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 The Lancet 380 p2224–2260
· Adhikari et al. (2008) Smoking-Attributable Mortality, Years of Potential Life Lost, and Productivity Losses --- United States, 2000—2004 57 p1226-1228
March 4 / Topic 9: Bias and confounding
March 9
Problem Set 2 due / Topic 10: Regression models
· Agresti and Finlay, Statistical Methods for the Social Sciences, 4th edition. Chapter 15 (“Logistic Regression: Modeling Categorical Responses,” pp. 483-49)
March 11
Problem Set 3 due / Guest Lecture: Hannes Schwandt Causality - influenza and birth outcomes
· Currie J, Schwandt H (2013) Within-mother analysis of seasonal patterns in health at birth. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110: 12265-12270
March 14-22 / Spring Recess
March 23 / -- Revision, catch-up & general discussion session --
March 25 / IN-CLASS EXAM [mid-term]
March 30 / Topic 11: Infectious disease dynamics I - The basics
· Roberts M, Heesterbeek H (1993) Bluff your way in epidemic models. Trends in Microbiology 1(9): 343-8.
April 1st / Topic 11: Infectious disease dynamics II – Demography and Epidemiology
· Metcalf CJE, Lessler J, Klepac P, Cutts FT, Grenfell BT (2012) Minimum levels of coverage needed for rubella vaccination: impact of local demography, seasonality and population heterogeneity. Epidemiology and Infection 16: 1-12.
April 6
Last day to suggest alternate topic for Problem Set 4. / Topic 11: Infectious disease dynamics III – Modeling for public policy
• Metcalf, C.J.E., Lessler, J. & Edmunds, W.J. (2015). Six challenges in policy for modeling. Epidemics
April 8 / Topic 12: Screening
· Kolata (2009) Panel urges mammograms at 50, not 40 New York Times
· Mandelblatt et al. 2009. Effects of mammography screening under different screening schedules: model estimates of potential benefits and harms Annals of Internal Medicine 15: 738-747
April 13 / Topic 13: The literature
· Kolata (2008) Searching for Clarity: A Primer on Medical Studies New York Times
· Ionnadis (2005) Why Most Published Research Findings Are False Plos Medicine 2 e124
April 15
Problem Set 4 / In class presentations – see Problem set 4 for questions
April 20 / Guest Lecture: Jason Schwartz Ethical issues:
April 22 / Guest Lecture: TBA
April 27 / Topic 14: Population and Health
· McKee & Scholnikov Understanding the toll of premature death among men in eastern Europe BMJ 323 1051
April 29 / Topic 15: Social Epidemiology
• Farmer (1996). Social Inequalities and Emerging Infectious Disease Emerging Infectious Diseases 2 259-269
• Vitek & Wharton (1998) Diphtheria in the Former Soviet Union: Reemergence of a Pandemic Disease Emerging Infectious Diseases 4 539
Details
Grading: The course grades will be determined as follows: in-class exam (30%), final exam (30%), problem sets/group presentation (30%), and class/precept participation (10%).
Reading: Please do the reading – before or after the relevant lecture - but sometime during the course. Topics are likely to come up in the exams. Readings are listed in the schedule and also available on Blackboard.
Presentation: There will be a presentation on April 15 – I’ve suggested some topics, but if you have a burning desire to address a particular question, please come talk to me about it before April 6th.
Precepts: Precepts led by Amy Winter will be held each week. The purpose of the precepts is to present a modest amount of new material, review material from the lectures and basic statistical concepts, go over difficulties encountered in the problem sets, and provide an opportunity for students to ask questions
Tentative precept schedule
Precept #1: Statistics review (for those who think they need it) – really basic such as what is a 95% CI, hypothesis testing, etc.
Precept #2: Discussion on epidemiological data sources and biases
Precept #3: Practice question of Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and discussion of RCT’s [Bailey 2007]
Precept #4: Problem Set #1 review
Precept #5: Discussion of cohort and case-control studies [Foltz, 2014 and Hyppönen, 2001]
Precept #6: Problem Set #2 review
Precept #7: Problem Set #3 review & Midterm review
No precept week of the midterm
Precept #8: Discussion of ID dynamics [Metcalf, 2012]
Precept #9: Discussion of screening, and practice interpreting regressions
Precept #10: Discussion of ethics, and practice interpreting regressions
Precept #11: Final exam review